Egyptair Airliner Lost Flying Paris to Cairo - Bomb Suspected

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Yazata, May 19, 2016.

  1. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    An Egyptair Airbus airliner flying from Charles De Gaulle to Cairo suddenly seems to have lost control over the Mediterranean southeast of Crete, maneuvered violently (banking and spinning) and quickly disappeared from radar. Radio calls to the plane were not answered. Planes don't just suddenly fail during cruise, so speculations are that a bomb exploded that caused a loss of control and rapid descent.

    66 people were aboard, 10 crew and 56 passengers. 15 passengers were French, one British, one Canadian and one Portugese, the rest Middle Eastern from a variety of countries, mostly Egyptian.

    The site where the plane disappeared was over the sea, midway between Crete and Alexandria, Egypt. Aircraft and ships from several countries are looking for debris. Mostly Greek and Egyptian, but there is at least one US Navy plane too. The French say they are sending planes. This isn't going to be like the missing Malaysian airliner, since radars saw precisely where the plane had difficulty and these are highly traveled seas.

    Unconfirmed reports say that debris has already been sighted from the air, but no one has yet verified that it is from the missing plane.

    Prior to leaving from Charles De Gaulle, the plane had been in Tunis, Tunisia. So if this was a bomb on the plane, attention will turn to airport security and to airport workers who have access to planes.

    This is just one more nail in the coffin of Egyptian tourism.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2016
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  3. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Indeed. And before the trip to Tunis it had been in Eritrea, returning to home base in Cairo on each occasion. Plenty of scope for doubtful security in all these places. And with Daech on the back foot in Iraq, another spectacular bomb would be the sort of thing we might expect, as evidence they are still able to shake the world.

    One would think that CDG these days would be very tightly secured, but no doubt there will be a huge investigation there.
     
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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Any ACARS data available?
     
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  7. el es Registered Senior Member

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    I'll have to wait for the fog of rumors to clear.

    Were there three Air Marshals on board?
     
  8. el es Registered Senior Member

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    I must have seen twenty talking heads giving twenty different scenarios.
     
  9. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    The Egyptians are saying that their navy has found debris including a "body part", a seat and some luggage, about 290 km northwest of Alexandria, near where the missing plane disappeared from radar. It isn't clear whether it was seen from the air by a search plane or physically retrieved from the sea by a ship. The European Space Agency says that one of their satellites has detected an oil slick in the same area.

    The Egyptians say that they are searching for the black boxes, which I assume have acoustic pingers. I don't think that the Mediterranean is as deep as larger oceans, so they should be recoverable. (By undersea robots, presumably.)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egyptair-airplane-idUSKCN0YA08W

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/0...h-widens-as-la-airport-steps-up-security.html
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
  10. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    They'll be announcing the Pope is Catholic next.

    I'll pay attention when they've got enough bits - or enough from the black box etc - to prove what brought it down and how. Missile or bomb, where, if bomb what sort and how concealed.
     
  11. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Locating the crash-site is an important step. It's only been a day, so the debris won't have drifted far. They can model that, based on weather and currents. Ships can deploy their sonars and listen for the black-box pingers.

    They will probably need the black boxes for that.

    Another theory that I've heard mentioned on TV is the possibility that there may have been a fight in the cockpit during a hijack attempt. Or conceivably a pilot may have intentionally crashed the plane, like that German airliner in France. I'd give the hijacking theory a low probability. This Egyptair plane had three air marshals aboard and even Egyptian planes must have some kind of cockpit security. The pilot-induced crash seems unlikely too. But the cockpit voice recorder would clear that up.

    My guess is that there won't be any unusual excitement in the cockpit and both of the recorders will just cut out at the same time, if a bomb in the rear of the plane severed the tail or caused the boxes (located in the tail) to lose their electrical connections to the cockpit and the rest of the plane.
     
  12. el es Registered Senior Member

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    The time has come for video feeds from cockpit and cabin, or did the mile high club put the kibosh on that?
     
  13. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Keep in mind that by far the #1 cause of airline crashes is simple pilot error.
     
  14. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, ....but not in level flight at cruising altitude in good conditions, I think. But this is just the sort of speculation that is wall-to-wall on the media, based on almost no information, so I'll do my best to shut up and wait.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    A good example of such a crash was China Airlines 006, a 747 flying from Taipei to LAX in good weather conditions at 41,000 feet. It was flying along when the #4 engine shut down. This wasn't that unusual; it had done so twice during previous flights, and they hadn't been able to trace down the problem.

    When a multiengine aircraft loses an engine the pilot must counter with rudder input to keep the aircraft from yawing into the dead engine. Previous pilots had done so, restarted the engine and continued on their way. The pilot in this case did not, and the aircraft yawed and slowed until it stalled. It rolled inverted and started into a vertical dive. The pilot did not figure things out until 11,000 feet, at which point he pulled back hard enough to pull 5G's, far in excess of the design margins of the aircraft. Both wings were bent upwards, the landing gear doors were torn off, much of the tail was ripped off (including one of the elevators) and one of the main landing gear was pulled out of its well by the forces and jammed in the down position (fortunately.)

    Miraculously, they were able to regain control of the aircraft and fly to an emergency landing in San Francisco. Had the pilot pulled just a little harder during the recovery, or they had lost just a little more of the tail, that flight could have turned out like Egyptair.
     
  16. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    CNN is reporting that ACARS shows multiple smoke alarms sounded in the plane shortly before it disappeared. Apparently the source for this information is Egyptian TV. I don't know how reliable it is.

    The first smoke alarm supposedly was in a lavatory behind the cockpit. Then it was quickly followed by a smoke alarm in the avionics bay under the cockpit. So where was the smoke originating? There may have been a fairly extensive fire that was spreading rapidly under the floor. Was it the result of a terrorist incendiary device in the cargo hold beneath the floor, or was it due to a technical fault with the airplane such as an electrical fire? Isn't there a fire-suppression system down there? Was the plane carrying a load of those always scary lithium-ion batteries? Apparently no sign of sudden decompression.

    Update edit: the Wall Street Journal says that ACARS also shows a failure of the flight control computer subsequent to the fire alarm in the avionics bay. The computer is physically located down there, I believe. This might explain why there was no distress call, if the radios were disabled as well.

    So there was a whole cascading series of things happening. What we don't know yet is what set it all off.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/20/middleeast/egyptair-flight-804-main/

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-d...ght-804-found-in-the-mediterranean-1463737727
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2016
  17. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Here's the ACARS messages

    00:26Z 3044 ANTI-ICE R WINDOW
    00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
    00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
    00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
    00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
    00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
    00:29Z 2700 F/CTC SEC 3 FAULT

    No further ACARS messages received

    All of these messages went out in the space of 3 minutes. They are all computer generated 'error messages' and didn't come from a pilot.

    The window messages are mysterious. What do the "window sensors" sense, exactly? Do these messages suggest that cockpit windows may have ruptured? (Wouldn't there have been depressurization messages if that happened?) Or would a transient shockwave-type overpressure inside the cockpit trigger them? The first smoke alarm was simultaneous (in the lavatory?) One minute later, avionics bay smoke. Then two minutes after that (three minutes in) flight control computer faults. I believe (but am not sure) that 'CTC' means 'cabin temperature controller'. (does F mean 'fuselage'?) Perhaps temperature excursions inside the plane were exceeding programmed norms.

    The window involvement and the rapidity of onset of smoke (and temperature?) problems suggest (to my layman's mind) that a bomb might be back on the table. Perhaps a small bomb secreted in or near or under the cockpit (in the avionics bay?) by somebody on a ground crew who had access. But in real life I don't have the kind of technical knowledge in interpreting ACARS error messages necessary to draw conclusive conclusions.

    http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0

    Some (not all) of the comments down on the bottom are worth reading. Interesting speculations.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2016
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Most likely a failure in the electrical anti-icing system on those windows. Since continuity can be monitored when they are off, an interruption in the circuit (due to, for example, a fire) can be detected and reported by the window heat controllers.
    Or the leads to the heaters in the windows were damaged.
    A bomb of any significant size most likely would have caused rapid depressurization. A fire would have caused the sort of growing failures and smoke alarms seen over three minutes. It's possible a very small bomb just started a fire, but there have been enough fires caused by lithium batteries, leaking oxygen systems and/or poorly packaged oxygen generators that it's not the most likely explanation.
     
  19. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    It seems like there should be much more Telemetry available since the loss of EgyptAir Flight MS804 happened during and in the geographic area encompassing "Phoenix Express 2016".

    http://www.c6f.navy.mil/news/phoenix-express-2016-commences
    - " Quick Facts:
    •This year’s exercise control group will be hosted at the NATO Maritime Interdiction Operations Training Center (NMIOTC) located in Souda Bay, Greece but training will take place throughout the Mediterranean to include North African nations’ territorial waters.
    •The at-sea portion of the exercise will test North African, European, and U.S. forces’ abilities to combat illegal migration, illicit trafficking, and movement of materials for weapons of mass destruction. Additionally, participating forces will work together to practice procedures of search and rescue in cases where vessels are in distress. Participating Maritime Operations Centers (MOCs) will exercise information sharing practices.
    •Participants of Phoenix Express have opportunities to enhance expertise in a number of areas: boarding techniques, search-and-rescue operations, medical casualty response, MOC to MOC communication, and maritime domain awareness tools.
    •Scenarios focused on the globally-recognized Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) will allow endorsing nations of Tunisia and Morocco to develop capabilities to detect and disrupt the delivery of materials used to build and develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
    •A Combined Maritime Operation Center (CMOC), led and comprised of North African navy officers, will form at the NMIOTC to manage the at-sea operations.
    •While the exercise is facilitated by the U.S. Navy, senior leaders from North African navies have prominent roles in the exercise. A Moroccan officer will oversee the exercise control group; a Tunisian officer will oversee the CMOC; and an Algerian officer will oversee a five-ship surface action group participating in the at-sea phase.
    •Medical and maritime interdiction operations (MIO) specialists will assist participating partner nation units during the exercise.
    •A senior leader seminar will be held one day prior to the start of the exercise, organized and facilitated by the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. The seminar will focus on the current maritime challenges in the Mediterranean and bring forward dialogue on how regional cooperation can address those challenges.
    •Exercise Phoenix Express is one of three U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet facilitated regional exercises. The exercise is part of a comprehensive strategy to provide collaborative opportunities amongst African forces and international partners that addresses maritime security concerns. Participating nations in Phoenix Express 2016 include Algeria, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and the United States. NATO Shipping Center is also scheduled to participate.
    •The U.S. 6th Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy, conducts the full spectrum of joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied, joint, and interagency partners, in order to advance U.S. national interests and security and stability in Europe and Africa. " -
    - the ^^above quoted^^ from and much more at Link : http://www.c6f.navy.mil/news/phoenix-express-2016-commences
     
  20. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    If it was a terror attack, why hasn't anyone claimed responsability?
     
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Does that include live fire of missiles?
     
  22. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    Sorry, Billy T, but I cannot comment on that aspect of the exercise.
    I only mentioned "Phoenix Express 2016" because it would seem that at that level of Naval Exercise, numerous entities would surely have an enormous amount of constant Active monitoring of Radar and all Analog and Digital Telemetry.

    If you wish to follow-up on that line of inquiry, Billy T, the only assistance that I can proffer is the following Link : http://www.c6f.navy.mil/about
     
  23. dumbest man on earth Real Eyes Realize Real Lies Valued Senior Member

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    ...for what its worth...

    "Source claims hunt for black boxes makes key progress"
    "Last Updated May 21, 2016 1:24 PM EDT

    ALEXANDRIA, Egypt -- Search crews located the data recorders for EgyptAir Flight 804 close to an area where human remains and debris from the crashed flight have been found, an Egyptian government source told CBS News on Saturday."
    - the ^^above quoted^^ from and more at Link : http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptai...s-crashed-airplane-located-mediterranean-sea/
     

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