Dare you buy a BP share?

I just hit £5K profit on my £18K investment (see post 85, 30 June).

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Why the devil didn't I have the nerve to invest more!

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Share price will tumble back a little at some stage on profit-taking.
I will consider taking some profit when my London shares equate with a NYSE price of $36.10.
(Maybe reinvest in bank shares?)

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Well done. I think reinvesting in bank shares is very good idea. I have been investing in bank shares.

The news coming out on BP seems to be optimistic today. Let's hope the tests they do tomorrow (well head pressures) confirm their optimism of today is based on the reality of the situation rather than speculation.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

I missed the opportunity of rebuying around 32 and now it is up around 35.7...

I thought it would bounce down to 31-30, before continuing the upward move...

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

SOLD!
for £5678.24 profit.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Price will very likely go higher, but there again I am not exposed to the risk of something going wrong --
and there are other opportunities.

 

"... BP Plc would be barred from new U.S. offshore leases to drill for oil or natural gas because of past safety violations under an amendment approved by a House panel. ...

Companies with violations of federal or state safety standards more than five times the industry average going back seven years would be barred under the amendment. The measure would also ban leases to companies that have received fines of $10 million or more for violating the Clean Water Act as well as those that have more than 10 fatalities at their facilities over the period.

BP is the only company that would fail those standards, Miller said. The new rules wouldn’t affect BP’s current leases, and the company could continue to participate as a minority partner on future leases, Miller said.

... BP has been hit with more than 800 “egregious” violations at its facilities over the past seven years compared with none by most other operators, Miller said. Current rules have “allowed an operator with a horrendous and lethal safety record to go out and” drill on public lands, Miller said. ..." From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQGIWc8b29fY&pos=9

Billy T comment:
Probably BP will sell leases not yet active, but at a loss, to other large oil companies.

PS to River Ape: nice. As my father like to say: "You never go broke taking a profit."

 

BP almost hit $40 today after the leak was shut off.....

 

BP may be getting serious about "Beyond Petroleum" --

"15July10: BP to buy biofuel operations from VRNM for $98E6 including cellulosic biofuel facilities in Jennings, La. and San Diego. Verenium will retain its commercial enzyme business, including a technology platform for biofuels, as well as its right to develop its own lignocellulosic enzyme program. BP becomes 100% owner of Vercipia Biofuels, and Galaxy Biofuels. Both were 50-50 joint developments. ..."

From my notes from several sources. (I own VRNM shares.)

 

Good review of how BP got to where it is (in photographs & text) here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100716/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill

 

I really hope this works..

I find it funny though how this disaster didn't drive the price of oil through the roof?

 

Ahhhh. Good thing I bought all that BP stock over the past few months!

~String

 

I have heard that well head pressure readings are still below what they would expect of a healthy well. However, the pressure is still rising. It is still premature to call an all clear on the containment issue. A pressure reading between 8k & 9k psi as I understand it would indicate a healthy well. The last pressure reading was 6.7k psi and rising.

http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=40&contentId=7061813

I sincerely hope it works out for all of you BP stockholders. But BP has been and remains too risky for my blood.

 

They are a week from one of the relief wells reaching it's target. So the cap has to last only until that long.

~String

 

If the well is not healthy, the relief wells may not work. BP may have multiple leaks from the seabed if the primary well has been severely damaged. So it not simply a matter of the cap holding - although that too is imporant.

 

“…scientists kept watch in case the buildup of pressure underground caused new leaks in the well pipe and in the surrounding bedrock that could make the disaster even worse.
Pressure readings after 24 hours were about 6,700 pounds per square inch and rising slowly, Allen said, below the 7,500 psi that would clearly show the well was not leaking. He said pressure continued to rise between 2 and 10 psi per hour. A low pressure reading, or a falling one, could mean the oil is escaping.
But Allen said a seismic probe of the surrounding sea floor found no sign of a leak in the ground.
Benton F. Baugh, president of Radoil Inc. in Houston and a National Academy of Engineering member who specializes in underwater oil operations, warned that the pressure readings could mean that an underground blowout could occur. He said the oil coming up the well may be leaking out underground and entering a geological pocket that might not be able to hold it. …”
From: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100717/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill
----------------
“… If there is a leak and the cap stays on, the leak could get worse, CBS News Correspondent Kelly Cobiella reports from Houma, La. That could cause problems with the relief wells, which are the best hope for finally stopping the oil.

He said the testing would go on into the night, at which point BP may decide whether to reopen the cap and allow some oil to spill into the sea again. …”

From: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/16/national/main6685462.shtml

Billy T comment: At one mile deep in sea water the pressure is 2,360.95psi. (from: http://www.calctool.org/CALC/other/games/depth_press). If well pressure were that, then no oil would flow out, but it came out rapidly with force. Presumably, using the assumed viscosity of the oil, the length and diameter of the pipe it is flowing thur, and the max volume flow rate observed when nothing was impeding the flow, BP has calculated that the sealed off pressure should be 7,500 psi. Why it is 800 psi less is the mystery. Perhaps it is less viscous or the pipe is not as long (has a ruptured wall in the pipe, so some flow is coming up via the annulus and then entering the pipe’s side)? Or, and this seems likely, at least to some extent to me, 89 days of high flow with viscous friction heated the pipe, so the viscosity was less than assumed, but is slowly rising as the pipe returns to the ambient temperature. I.e. that without flow in the pipe the oil is more viscous, so if they were to remove the cap the free flow rate would be lower than the max observed, until the pipe walls warm above the ambient again.

With no flow, the pressure should not depend upon the viscosity. When there was flow, there was pressure drop in the porous rocks. Perhaps BP considered this too and also assumed that the pressure at the end of the pipe had to be higher than that of sea water at that greater than 1 mile depth. (rocks do weigh more per unit volume than sea water.) I.e. the expected 7,500 psi may just be the computed pressure at 1 mile of sea water plus ~ 2000 feet of rocks.

 

London shares briefly fell to equivalent of US$34.87 this morning over renewed leakage fears.
Time to start thinking about climbing back aboard?

 

Well the news being reported this morning in the US is that oil has been found leaking from the seabed and BP has been ordered by the government to present backup plans with in the next 4 hours. They have not yet confirmed that the leakage from the seabed is from the wellhead.

BP has cancelled its normal update this morning without explanation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38273995/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf/

 

20000 Lloyds Bank shares up from 60p to 72.5p in a week and a half!
Am I a genius or am I just lucky?

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

(Or an idiot for making so modest an investment?)
Hope your own bank shares are doing as nicely!
Now, what next I wonder?

 

Genius of course.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Yes my bank shares are doing well. I bought Citi Group in the mid to low 3 dollar range and have been buying a regional turn-a-round regional. Huntington Bank for a 20 percent return thus far. I look see Citi selling for 5 dollars/share in the next six months. Citi has a book of about 5 dollars per share and is increasingly profitable.

I still like Weatherford, I purchased it June as an alternative to BP and have seen a nice 20 percent return since then. I think I will sell at 20 which I expect to see in the next year. Weatherford is a good company and has been selling at a 20-30 percent discount to its peers and it is a global company with minimal exposure in the Gulf.

I think it will be well positioned to take advantage of increasing global demand for oil as the US restricts drilling in the us in response to the BP oil spill.

And there is one more I like, ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC. It is a real estate investment trust...pays a nice 16+ percent dividend. And thus far I have an 8 percent capital gain in the position. I took the position at the end of May 2010.

There are some good values out there if you look.

 

Oil companies drilling in U.S. waters would face unlimited liability and BP Plc would be barred from new offshore leases under legislation passed by the House three months after the worst spill in U.S. history.

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6E7xW_EiN04&pos=9

 

Yes there is still signficant risk associated with BP and other deep water drillers. That is a good reason to look for drillers with lower exposure to the risk in the US.