Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Notice the change in specific wording ( bolded):

    WHO SR 14-Feb-2020
    src: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...00214-sitrep-25-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=61dda7d_2
    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 49 053 laboratory-confirmed (2056 new)
    • China 48 548 laboratory-confirmed (1998 new) 1381 deaths (121 new) †
    • Outside of China 505 laboratory-confirmed (58 new) 24 countries 2 deaths (1 new)
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    • China Very High
    • Regional Level High
    • Global Level High
    Currently John Hopkins Uni
    Confirmed cases: 64461

    At this stage the data is not making much sense. Perhaps in transition to a better way of reporting.
     
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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    That's a reasonable definition.
    Like when you spit? Agreed, that is not an aerosol.

    When you sneeze, you get particles that range from 20um (definitely an aerosol) to 1000um (definitely NOT an aerosol.) There are two peaks in the distribution of size - one at 72um (again, aerosol) and one at 386um (almost an aerosol, but a little too big to stay aloft for long.)

    So the 20um particles stay in the air a long, long time - but dry out quickly. The 70um particles don't stay suspended as long, but they take longer to dry out. The 400um particles settle out in 10 seconds or so, but have a large amount of moisture in them (and can have a large amount of virus.)

    And recent research has demonstrated that even normal breathing in someone infected with a virus can produce aerosols with a viral load.

    So which is worst? If you are in the same room with them, the larger particles - they are in the air long enough to get to you and they have more viral material (and they last longer before drying out.) If you are just outside the room? The 20um particles, because they stay in the air much longer, and in very humid air can last long enough to get to you. On the plus side, they have less of a viral load.

    And both can be a risk even if you don't touch anything.

    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2013.0560
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
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  7. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    There are 15 cases in Australia and 6 days ago 5 were reported to have recovered.

    Why would you worry about airborne transmission if bats have mites like rats have fleas? Just Google bat mites
     
  8. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Sure, that definition seems to be in line with everything that people have been saying on this thread, save that according to the source I quoted there are also "dry"(or nearly dry, in view of billvon's remarks about blood, mucus etc.) aerosols, too, to which the term "droplet" may or not be completely appropriate.

    If you have a point to make, it would be helpful if you could make it explicit.
     
  9. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    lol
    I made my point quite clear in post #61 page 4. It has only taken 5 pages to get back to it...
    Perhaps you could have a read of it and then follow all the posts since....
    It turns out that the only issue was in the definition of the word aerosol and the allowing of both aerosol airborne and direct contact transmission to potentially exist simultaneously.

    btw I have learned so much about viral transmission over the last few days and I must thank you all for allowing me to do so.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    now that's an interesting post..
    please explain?

    There was a bizarre hypothesis floating around that the virus may only have been transmitted to those people who had adapted to eating bats and that the parasites that they gained from eating bats were actually what made them more receptive.
    lol

    so many ideas people come up with hey?
     
  11. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    456
    You are aware how the plague spread? And no it wasn't something in the air unless you are talking about the rare case of septicemic plague.

    Google: plague spread by rat fleas
    Google: septicemic
     
  12. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I am unsure how a bacterial transmission has much to do with this viral transmission, but perhaps you can explain it ?

    60000 odd people didn't all eat Bats surely?
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  14. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    WHO SR 15-Feb-2020

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 51 857 laboratory-confirmed (1278 new)
    • China 51 174 laboratory-confirmed (1121 new) 1666 deaths (142 new) †
    • Outside of China 683 laboratory-confirmed (157 new) 25 countries 3 deaths (1 new)
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    China Very High
    Regional Level High
    Global Level High
    Growth factor of approx. 2.57%
    Based on WHO data provided by Chinese Authorities. IMO Credibility : very low

    workings:
    51857-1278=50579
    50579/1278=39.57
    100/39.57= 2.57%
    =======

    Singapore:
    Confirmed: 72 (new 5)
    Deaths: 0
    Growth factor of approx 7.46% per day.

    workings:
    72 - 5 = 67
    67/5 = 13.4
    100/13.4 = 7.46%

    Indications that the viral growth is similar to that of mainland China (early stages) over the last 60+ days.
    Concern summary:
    As Singapore has a similar population residential density to Wuhan the possibility of Singapore replicating the early stage Wuhan transmission rates is disturbing.
    ========
    Significant growth is also occurring in:
    Japan
    Confirmed: 53 ( new 12)
    Deaths: 1
    Growth factor of approx.29.32% per day ( possibly less due to anomalous data )

    workings:
    53 -12 = 41
    41/12 = 3.41
    100/3.41 = 29.32%

    Personal Speculation:
    If authorities in Japan and Singapore are unable to adequately and aggressively contain this viral transmission there is a very strong likely hood that what is happening in Wuhan will be replicated In Japan and Singapore over the next 60 days.
    Apart from the human tragedy involved the economic ramifications will have significant consequences globally.

    Data source: WHO
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0216-sitrep-27-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=78c0eb78_2
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
  15. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    456

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    One last try, when the fuzzy things (fruit bats) in the attached image fly overhead they rub their limbs up against their bodies and some of their bat mites fall off, you know like when plague fleas jump off rats, unlike the extremely rare bacterial transmission.
     
  16. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    456
    BTW, if anybody is really interested in Flu Statistics.

    1/ The ratio of Recovered/Infected in the Chinese Coronavirus has gone from around 10% to 15% in the past 5 days. The latest figures from John Hopkins are 71,334 Infected, 1,775 dead and 11,135 Recovered.

    2/ The Washington Post reported that in the 2017/18 US Flu season 80,000 people died and millions were infected, in the 2018/19 US Flu season 67,000 people died and around a million were infected and the current 2019/20 US Flu season reports show around 20,000 have died and the flu shots are a bad mix for the Ferret, Guinea pig and Cat strains being identified.
     
  17. Bells Staff Member

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    23,249
    Umm there is no evidence this spreads from bat mites.

    Unless you are saying they are a vector for other diseases?

    They have not been found to transmit any diseases.

    What fresh level of hell is this?
     
  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Out of curiosity I just checked the web for the average size of bacteria and found it to be between 0.2 to 2 microns.
    There is no evidence of bacterial infection other than possibly secondary in this situation COVID-19.

    It is important to note that bacterial infection gained after viral infection can be pretty lethal and may account for many of the deaths (secondary infections) but I really do not know...of any stats that are available.
     
  19. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    WHO SR 16-Feb-2020

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 71 429 confirmed (2162 new)
    • China 70 635 confirmed (2051 new) 1772 deaths (106 new) †
    • Outside of China 794 confirmed (111 new) 25 countries 3 deaths
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    • China Very High
    • Regional Level High
    • Global Level High
    The issue of viral transmission out side of China mainland.
    The growth appears to be as high as 16.26%.

    workings:
    794-111=638
    638/111=6.15
    100/6.15 = 16.26%
     
  20. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    456
    The bacterial transmissions are extremely rare, it's the mites/fleas that are the common carrier.

    Current figures from John Hopkins: Total Confirmed: 73,335, Total Deaths: 1873, Total Recovered: 12,745 and the current ratio of Recoveries/Infections is 17.38%, up a couple of percent since yesterday.

    I notice even the BBC is using John Hopkins Uni figures because they are more up to date than the WHO's figures.
     
  21. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    The common carrier of what?
     
  22. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    Weren't you aware that the great plague or Black Death, another flu like infection, was spread by fleas from rats?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague
     
  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020

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