Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    I thought it pertinent to start a thread topic on this new version of Corona Virus that has it's ground zero in a fish market in China.
    Apparently this outbreak has significant potential due to the <14 day incubation period.

    Less than 5 km away from where I live we had our first confirmed case here in Australia. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Australia 4 of which are in NSW and 2 cases in Victoria.

    Voluntary quarantine via stay at home is occurring in a relatively minor way, face masks are sold out, and people are starting to wear masks and other cover in public.

    Perhaps later I will post further details but at the moment the situation is very fluid with information changing rapidly.
    Perhaps others would like to contribute and build an outline of events so far...
    Some selfie video uploaded to you tube a few days ago from China.



    I believe the next 7 days will be critical in how this outbreak will be assessed locally and globally.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2020
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  3. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    FYI, it’s not Corona Virus but simply coronavirus. It’s not a proper noun but just a normal noun, designating a specific family of viruses. So much like we might refer to a terrier (being a specific variety of dog), we refer to the coronavirus. In this case it is called Novel coronavirus, with the text in brackets being the shortened version of it, for more accurate identification. “Novel” is just a placeholder name until a more suitable one is adopted. For example in 2012 there was a coronavirus originating in the Middle East that is now known as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (or MERS-CoV for short). This new one will probably eventually be called Wuhan coronavirus, or something like that.

    Anyway, UK currently with no confirmed cases, although 97 have so far been tested.

    France and Germany have had a few confirmed cases, so that’s as good a reason as any to suspend all relationships with them... so the British government has decided to withdraw from Europe, and we will officially do so on Friday night.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    All travel to China from the UK has been suspended (presumably not in mid-air... that would be dangerous) although you can still travel to Hong Kong, and from there into China if you must, although the borders between those two are heavily restricted.

    It seems to have a c.2% mortality rate among confirmed cases, although confirmed cases still only represent 0.04% of the population of Wuhan, which is itself less than 1% of the Chinese population. But because people are presumably only being tested when they are symptomatic, it is unknown to what extent a person could simply be a carrier and never show symptoms. That would make the spread likely greater, but the mortality rate somewhat less.
     
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  5. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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  7. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    World Health Organization declares a Global Health Emergency. For the sixth time in it's history.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/who-coronavirus-global-emergency/11916276

    1st case detected in China
    12th December 2019
    WHO declaration
    31st January 2020

    Approximately 50 days
    ======
    As of today: 31/01/2019:
    China : 170 deaths - 7818 confirmed cases. ( possibly understated)
    Australia : 0 deaths - 9 confirmed cases - 8 suspected cases (credible data)
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-30/vic-third-coronavirus-case/11915692
     
  8. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Latest sit rep figures C/C WHO 2020-02-03
    Limitations:
    The situation is very dynamic and fluid.
    The published figures may about 4-8 hours behind the actual situation. Perhaps even more so.
    The published figures from China may be significantly understated due to delays in information and political necessity.

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    src: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

    Meanwhile the first flight of evacuees (243 - citizens, permanent residents and exceptions) have landed in Western Australia and are currently being transferred by smaller craft to Christmas Island for mandatory quarantine. A second evacuation flight is planned from China and possibly underway.
    Route:
    Wuhan ----> Learmonth WA ----> Christmas Island.
    src: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...n-flight-reaches-wa-christmas-island/11923324
     
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  9. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Latest sit rep figures C/O WHO 2020-02-04
    Limitations:
    The situation is very dynamic and fluid.
    The published figures may be about 4-8 hours behind the actual situation. Perhaps even more so.
    The published figures from China may be significantly understated due to delays in information and political necessity.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!


    It is worth noting the nations that appear absent from the table.
    From the data available in the public domain (?) it is unable to determine ethnic/racial/genealogical based susceptibility. Perhaps it is to early in this epidemic to come to any conclusions.

    My calculations: ( Please correct me if I am wrong)
    Confirmed cases:
    2020-02-04 daily growth factor < 17% (16.39%)
    Confirmed deaths:
    2020-02-04 daily growth factor <16% (15.79%)
    =====

    With the numbers of cases of novel coronavirus continuing to grow across the world, experts believe the chance of a pandemic being declared is a growing possibility — but not all agree.

    src: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ikely-if-china-world-infections-grow/11929390

    It is also worth considering that long term outcomes for patients that manage to survive this infection. Secondary infections and physical damage could lead to many fatalities that are not being recorded today.

    Also collateral deaths due to hospitals in China being overwhelmed means that patients seeking medical support for other conditions are not able to receive them.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  10. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    WHO SR Sum. 6th Feb. 2020

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so.../20200206-sitrep-17-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=17f0dca_2

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 28 276 confirmed (3722 new)
    • China 28 060 confirmed (3697 new) 3859 severe (640 new) 564 deaths (73 new)
    • Outside of China 216 confirmed (25 new) 24 countries 1 death
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    • China Very High
    • Regional Level High
    • Global Level High
     
  11. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,568
    WHO SR Sum. 7th Feb. 2020

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200207-sitrep-18-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=fa644293_2

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
    • Globally 31 481 confirmed (3205 new)
    • China 31 211 confirmed (3151 new) 4821 severe (962 new) 637 deaths (73 new)
    • Outside of China 270 confirmed (54 new) 24 countries 1 death
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    China Very High
    Regional Level High
    Global Level High

    Opinion:
    Given the numbers of severely ill patients (962) and that ICU's are generally being overwhelmed the incident of deaths attributed to this virus will most likely increase significantly as many seriously ill patients are not able to get the care needed to survive their condition...
    Currently the total attributed death is 637.
    This is likely to double or more in the next few days IMO

    We can only hope an effective vaccine is developed soon as no other way to stop this virus in China appears effective.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  12. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    474
    FYI,

    Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

    I'd actually be more worried about flu's with common host animals such as Ferrets, Guinea pigs and Cats.
     
  13. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,568
    WHO SR Sum. 8th Feb. 2020
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200208-sitrep-19-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6e091ce6_2

    SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

    • Globally 34 886 confirmed (3419 new)
    • China 34 598 confirmed (3401 new) 6101 severe (1280 new) 723 deaths (86 new)
    • Outside of China 288 confirmed (18 new) 24 countries 1 death
    WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
    • China Very High
    • Regional Level High
    • Global Level High
    If I am not mistaken the daily growth factor for new cases ( confirmed ) has dropped by up to 7%, suggesting that efforts to quarantine may be proving successful.
     
  14. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    474
    Yep and the ratio of Infected/deaths is decreasing while the Recovered/dead is increasing. The latest figures had 1 extra death for 146 recovered (now 158 with no extra deaths and only 6 new infections).
     
  15. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,568
    According to free to air TV here the situation appears to be stable enough for the WHO and CDC teams to apply to the Chinese Government to allow access to Ground zero.
    This, if true is promising news IMO.
     
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  16. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Keep in mind that if this spreads like wildfire, and the number of deaths increases by 100x, it will be . . . still less deadly than the common flu.
     
  17. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    If we accept your claim that this virus is insignificant and hardly worth mentioning can you explain why the world is currently treating it in the way that they are?
    City wide and regional lock downs, hospital building, quarantine centers established, evacuations from China by most nations. Travel bans. and shoot to kill orders in China for those hiding from authorities?

    Doesn't seem like a trivial viral problem does it?
    So please explain your attitude?

    Also please explain why this virus appears to be genetically specific and targeted to Chinese ethnicity only? Any ideas welcome..
     
  18. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    18,318
    In no way did I say that.

    I posted that to keep things in perspective. If people start thinking that the ordinary flu is "insignificant and hardly worth mentioning" compared to this (which seems to be your approach) - then you might see a lot more deaths overall as people start ignoring the pervasive threat of the flu in lieu of panic over the new threat, and stop getting flu shots and taking ordinary precautions against the flu.
    Because it is novel and newsworthy - and it is exactly the sort of threat the WHO pays attention to. Note that they go after every new disease in this way, on the off chance that one of them will be a new measles or something.
    See above.
    Evolution. That's how many pathogens work. They jump the species barrier by exploiting a deficiency in the immune system of the first human host, and then evolve to better survive in humans with that deficiency. It makes sense that those who are genetically similar to the first host will share the same deficiency.

    (Also note that after they are in the new host for long enough, they will continue to evolve to infect more hosts. As always it's a game of statistics between the pathogen and the host response.)
     
  19. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    22,568
    Then perhaps you could have suggested as such in your post. I agree. However the global response has been considerably more extreme than any previous pandemic I have witnessed in the past. Even the Ebola crisis in Africa didn't solicit such an extreme response. Perhaps there are factors in this coronavirus that we are no privy to.
    • The potential to mutate for example may have been detected.
    • There may also be investigations under way to determine if a bio weapon has been deployed.
    • They may be attempting to discover whether a common virus has been genetically manipulated. Gene editing can be such a perverse science after all especially in the hands of those seeking revenge against the Chinese Government and national military/civilian homogeneity. There are a number of actions perpetrated by the Chinese Government in recent times that could solicit retaliatory actions by extremist groups.
    But who knows, certainly not us.
    The fact remains that for perhaps the first time Australia has established major quarantine facilities on Christmas Island and Northern Territory. Bans on Global transport to and from china are in place. A massive concentration of cases exists in China.
    The public information may and most probably is seriously understated. Uploaded You Tube video is highly suggestive of catastrophic conditions prevailing in the Wuhan region.
    Economic disaster with serious global considerations are involved. especially here in Australia ( Note: Iron ore and Coal index plus Chinese imports to Australia and local Chinese businesses)

    The global reaction to this contagion has been extraordinary and seriously suggests a fear that we are not privy to.


    Suffice to say that this is no ordinary contagion IMO


    again you fail to see the global reaction to this novel contagion as being extraordinary. The WHO are conservative by nature. Avoiding global panic would be one of their most pressing concerns.

    The first thing that comes to mind is that the coronavirus was replicated in a lab with in 2 weeks here in Australia. Any one with the right equipment nous and money could do the same. All the facts tend to suspicion that the current coronavirus may be artificial and the global response so far also tends to validate that suspicion. This virus, it's future mutations etc may not by naturally typical. The global community seems to consider it a much greater risk than the common flu.

    Fair enough if one considers only that the virus is naturally typical.
    Given all the circumstantial evidence so far, we would be foolish ( being ignorant of the necessary facts) to consider the virus as typical.
     
  20. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Surely you do not equate the virulence of this pathogen to the scariness of the media coverage?
    Scaremongering BS. There is no evidence to support that.
     
  21. Bells Staff Member

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    That was never his claim.

    What shoot to kill orders?

    And as for the rest, it's called quarantine.

    Also, other countries evacuating their citizens allows the Chinese authorities to cater more to the sick, instead of adding potentially thousands of people for them to care for if they get sick. They reduced the burden on China and in particular, the Wuhan region.

    He did not say it was trivial.

    You are literally inventing arguments here and attributing them to people.

    Where did you get that idea? The majority of those infected are Chinese because that is where the virus originated and infected the majority of the people..

    There are people from other ethnicities currently receiving care in Japan, for example, after they became infected on a cruise ship, including several Australians.

    Then you were not paying attention.

    Secondly, Ebola outbreaks tend to happen in small villages and rural areas, not in bustling cities that are major transport and trading hubs in a very populated country.

    Scaremongering.

    Conspiracy theories are not only not helpful, they are just BS.

    As opposed to locking people up there when they come to Australia seeking refuge?

    Because that is where the disease originated and given its population size in that region, this is hardly news.

    Are these the same videos that showed a woman eating a bat, for example, and suggesting she was there, when it was taken years ago in a different region and I believe was on a small island in the Pacific? Or the videos of people falling over, that were actually also from years ago from Korea?

    Maybe watch less youtube videos for your news....

    You must have been in a cave for SARS, bird flu, swine flu, etc, then..

    It's a virus. Similar to SARS and other flu's..

    Again, you must have been in a cave for the other "contagions" that we've seen over the last 10 or so years now.

    And you'd avoid less global panic if you stopped posting and believing conspiracies.

    It was developed here after samples were taken from an infected person.

    And they would need would be to find people infected with it... Given testing procedures, etc.. Just stop..

    There are absolutely no "facts" supporting this.

    Stop lying and passing your scaremongering conspiracy laden crap, off as fact.

    What you refer to as "the common flu":

    CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

    There is no evidence to suggest that it is something else.

    They have traced its origins to a live market in the region.

    Stop with the conspiracy theorist scaremongering BS.

    I think it is more foolish and ignorant to come up with utter bullshit such as:

     
  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Question:
    Will virus survivors have an antibody that can be reproduced and shared?
     
  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    It's possible, but:
    1) antibodies only live about a month
    2) they denature quickly outside the body
    3) you can have severe immune reactions to antibodies, and they might well cause more harm than good

    Far better to develop a conventional vaccine and let your body develop its own antibodies.
     

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