Consequences of Any Action Against Iran

Discussion in 'World Events' started by otheadp, Mar 4, 2005.

1. NeildoGoneRegistered Senior Member

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5,306
SpyMoose and Verdatel proved you wrong. Go ahead and dislike Iran for whatever legitimate reason, but don't do it for false reasons as you mentioned as it only makes you look a fool. Unfortunately most bias people have against Iran, or anywhere in the ME, is the spoon-fed BS they hear from propoganda news all around us.

I also love the power people think a democracy is. As Stalin once said, "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." Democracy and freedom isn't what makes America America, it's capitalism. Unfortunately it's money what gives people freedom.

- N

3. OphioliteValued Senior Member

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9,232
You are saying that tongue in cheek aren't you? In the words of John McEnroe, "you cannot be serious!"
True, on my single visit there three or four years ago there was a large illustrated sign in the baggage collection hall at Tehran airport that we had translated for us - it did indeed read "Death to all infidels". (Notice the all. That includes Brits of a non-islamic persuasion.) However, I was greeted by nothing but courtesy by everyone I met from engineers and businessmen, to taxi drivers and waiters, from government officials to private citizens.
.
You may have noticed that it is not unusual for there to be a disjunction between the declarations of governments and the mood of a country.

5. crazy151drinkerRegistered Senior Member

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1,156
"1. maybe the people like their government if they didnt a revolution would have changed it."
Oh like when the ruling Religious party wouldnt allow the moderates to vote or have canidates?? The ruling fundies run the show and thats that. Hard to change things when A: You cant do it democraticly and B: The fundies control the Military. Good luck with a peacefull change there.

"Don't play dunce. In America the choises are screened beforehand by the political partys, and afterward by the electoral college."

Well I wouldnt go that far, but you are speaking at the Federal level, lets not forget about the States.

As far as what would Iran do:
Well if they have the bomb, nothing, because we wont do anything. Then they would probably Nuke Isreal the first chance they got.

If they dont have the bomb:
The would immediate declare some Holy War against the U.S. Their Military would take a crap. They would be destroyed Militarily in a heart beat. Now im not saying we should or would go in and actually invade. If anything we would just cripple them and destroy their Nuclear facilities.

I hate to say it but I do forsee a Military conflict on the horizon. Iran will not back down and the U.S. and Isreal willl not allow a country with a sworn goal of Destroying the U.S. and Isreal to have nukes.

And no, the world doesnt hate Muslims. The world hates crazy fundie Muslims, just like the world hates Crusaders, and hard line "who needs peace" Jews.

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5,853
well said.
finally a normal response btw.

one thing i'm concerned about though, the Iranian gov't keeps talking about "assymetrical war". i.e. Iran is not going to fight fire with fire. they would instead try to blow up strategic military and civilian targets in the US with small terrorist cells.
they've already got a fullscale psychological warfare going on, with their defense officials talking about targeting the 6000 nuclear warheads on American soil.

in the past when their interests were attacked (the head of Hizballah was assassinated in the early 90's) they responded by blowing up the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community center in Argentina the next year. that was on a small scale. now, imagine Teheran is attacked... the response will be 20 blown up embassies and some massive "martyrdom" operations inside the US. and of course just as Saddam did, the Ayatollahs will attack Israeli interests, and who knows where that will lead.

by the way, consider how hard it is for cave-dwelling terrorists to organize an operation. now, imagine you have an entire country's intelligence apparatus, funds, media control, and all these tools at your disposal to wage "assymterical" warfare. how are you going to fight thAt? I hope Rumsfeld has a plan...

8. UndecidedBannedBanned

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4,731
I was reading this thread, and I couldn’t believe Oth said this about Crazy’s post: “well said.
finally a normal response btw.”, I am sorry but that was response was straight from Goebells play book of stereotypes and buzz words. If you think that is a “normal response” then the economist obviously are a bunch of pot smoking idiots. To be fair a attack against Iran would do more harm then good, because relative to Iran’s power in the region she has been tame. First off if Iran really wanted to she could probably create another civil war in Lebanon with Hezbollah and if Israel were to attack Iran, Hezbollah could in theory shell Haifa with rockets although the IAF would neutralize that threat, the mere fact that it exists causes problems. Secondly Iran now has the capability to attack Israel with warheads, the Arrow missile system may shoot down some missiles but I doubt they will all of them, and if Iran does indeed have the upgraded Shahab-III-B missile with GPS guidance supposedly, Israel’s Dimona facility is well within the line of fire. Iran could within the first 12 hours strike at US bases in the Persian Gulf with her Fatah missiles which are very accurate from all the reports I’ve read. Iran with her super silent Kilo submarines can also cause havoc in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt the international oil trade, and the price of oil would go up possibly breaking the $60-70 barrier, and Iran would probably stop exporting her oil causing there to be a oil crisis and international recession is possible. Another possible and I would suggest likely is a mini-invasion of Iraq by Iranian special forces to bolster the insurgency against the United States, and Iran would probably try her best to radicalize Iraqi Shi’a by insisting that they should help fight with their brothers against a common enemy. Also the attack against Iran would most surely bolster the regime. So that is imo just some of the repercussions of an Iranian attack. 9. otheadpBannedBanned Messages: 5,853 i said "finally normal response" because finally somebody expressed an opinion regarding the topic at hand -- something that most responses lacked. your worst-case-scenario analysis is, for the first time, right on, although it is the worst-case scenario, and will most likely (hopefully) not happen. i heard a month ago one of the US DoD people rejecting an actual attack because he didn't want to create a spike in nationalism. it would be too easy for the Iranian regime to create propaganda out of this and use it to their advantage, recruiting shahids from all over the place. if you haven't noticed, for the next 2 weeks there wil be navy and other training exercises being conducted btwn the US and Israel, on Israeli territory. some involve use of patriot missiles or something like that. they said it's a periodic exercise conducted once in 2 years. but i haven't heard of it 2 years ago, and it's a nice coincidence, along with the sale of 500 bunker-busters and the F-16Is to Israel. months ago some analysts said that a strike on the Iranian nuke facilities by Israel will be orcastrated in February-March. it seemed like wild speculation to me, especially since it's fairly early in the diplomatic process still.. but all these US-Israel maneuvers make it seem like they're preparing for it. you don't think that there would actually be an open bombing campaign against Iran, do you? i mean, at least as a 1st step 10. crazy151drinkerRegistered Senior Member Messages: 1,156 Unde, Do you really want Iran to have nukes? Lets be real here, the Isrealies are a tad bit nervous concerning their neighbors and have a tendency to be a bit trigger happy. Your senerio, while valid, doesnt address any real Military action. So hezbolah sends some rockets, big deal. Not the main game. Tehran in flames is the concern here. Oil at$70 a barrel?? Good. I hope it happens. Maybe we could get off the Middle East tit and develop some real alternative fuels.

On a side note, what happens to the Middle East when the develped world vastly reduces its need for oil?? Will anyone care?? Would we put up with all the B.S. if we didnt need oil??

11. Odin'IzmProcrastinatorRegistered Senior Member

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1,851
If we didnt oil there would be no shit to put up with as the middle east would need no meens of protection eg: missiles, because there would be no intrest in their territory.

12. Michael歌舞伎Valued Senior Member

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20,285
Sleepwalking to disaster in Iran
I'm really curious if ANYTHING happens this June. But, I really just don't think so . . . ..