The effects of climate change on food security. 1. Increasing temperatures and aridity (ie decreasing availability of water) will result in lower yields for corn, wheat, rice, and other primary crops in the next two decades 2. Rising cost of food (especially after foodcrops are diverted for energy use) and decreasing per capita cultivated area (both due to increasing population and changes in soil quality as well as less area available for cultivation) will erode global food security. 3. In food-insecure regions, many farmers both consume their product and sell it in local markets. This exposes farmers to climate variations, because when they produce less their income goes down while their costs go up to maintain basic consumption. Large-scale hunger can ensue, even when there is sufficient food in the market that M.Ehas been imported from elsewhere. 4. Large scale droughts can affect national revenues, restricting the ability of small budget countries to purchase grain. Mitigating factors: -rising oil prices -global grain market -change in consumption patterns especially in growing economies -use of technology by farmers -food policies references: D. B. Lobell et al., Science 319, 607 (2008). M.E. Brown et al., Science 319, 580 (2008)
