News from 11/25 It seems that CHINA has been purchasing Submarines at an alarming rate. Also, over at www.insightmag.com, there is some interesting speculation from China on weather the USA could fight the good fight with china: Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation. China isn't worried, they have over 100,000 Chinese college students in America obtaining information on the "States", and passing it onto Beijing, (for what)? With their huge military, china has nothing to worry about regarding a conflict with the USA. Condoleeza Rice said on sunday that There's a question of intent," Rice told reporters, referring to the modernization of the 2.5-million-strong People's Liberation Army -- the world's biggest fighting force.
Protostar, I hope ye're not taking ONE PERSON'S view of China and/or the USA without further research and reading. I think Mr. Ishihara is a mayor of some city in Taiwan ...what's his credentials for military brilliance and insights? Baron Max
So China is popping out 100,000s engineers. Big deal. They work in China and still have no Tech- which is why once again China is importing them over here so they can steal it and send it back to China. When was the last time China used its Military effetively?? Tibet?? Does that even count? They got their asses handed to them in both Korea and their attempted take over of Vietnam. 2.5M troops can only do so much. China's subs, planes, tanks, and general Military equipment flat out sucks. Granted they are spending some serious $$$$$ updating it all (with purchased soviet equipment and stolen US tech). Give them time im sure they can be a serious Military threat- but currently their scope of projected power (Militarily) is very limited. I see that no one has bothered to mention India in these discussions....
Crazydrinker, you have to start at the beggining. I said on page 2 that India and china would likely be fighting it out for first place in the future. In your post you also forget that China has caught up something like 40 years of technology in, say 15 years. It is in the middle of the social and economic/ physical changes analogous to those the USA went through in the 20's through 50's. (motorways, cinemas, massive chemical plants, microchip fabs etc) If it can balance its population, politics, need for physical resources, ecosystem, arguments with India etc, it does stand a good chance of being number one in 20 or 30 years.
What makes anyone think that China has no tech? They sell us most of our motherboards for computers. Most of the tech they have bought from us, shipping entire factories worth of machinery over to them, can be used to build more functional designs than they were originally used for. This is obvious or they couldn't make those motherboards.
And how does that make China look less powerful? Yes, they have tons of engineers and don't come up with the technology on their land. Yes, they do send their works here and steal our technology, but isn't that accomplishing the same end result? Face it, we rely on them to support us. They COULD keep all their engineers and come up with all the technology on their own homeland, but it's more profitable for them to do things the way they are now. With their engineers over here, WE end up paying to fund all the research and development and the money China saves from that, they put into other areas. So we pay for the technology and they simply steal it since all their workers are here. I, personally, think that's a brilliant move. China has no problems stealing our technology and keeping each other as technological equals rather than having a one up on us. Why? Population. When someone has a small population, that's when technology becomes the most important because you have to make up for what one lacks. However, since China has over a billion people in their country, if both sides are technologically equal, the only thing left to tip the scales is population which they have more than three times our amount. They can afford to trade blows at a 1:1 ratio or even worse with equal technology. It all winds up becoming a war of attrition. - N
They buy our machines at junk prices and refurbish them and pay a lot less on the dollar. Also, parts fabrication machines can be fitted with digital controls and become top of the line, up to date precision fabrication machines that automatically make parts from computer files. A lot of people in the U.S. can do this on a hobbyist budget.
No one has claimed that they have no technology. They are just way behind in implementing it. And computer motherboards isn't a good example because they are easy to produce. Chips, though, are a different matter. Especially processor chips.
For those who seem to doubt that the water supply is a major problem that could hold China back, here's an excerpt from a news article that appeared today: "China ranks among countries with the smallest water supplies per person. Hundreds of cities regularly suffer shortages of water for drinking or industry. Protesters in rural areas claim pollution is ruining water supplies and damaging crops." And I really thing that many people here, especally the younger ones who don't understand it, grossly underestimate the need for water for people and especially for industry. It takes a tremendous amount and China simply does not have enough to go around as it is right now - much less in another 10 years.
But can they feed and house and clothe and provide adequate healthcare and public education for all of their people? Baron Max
Not adequately, but they can build their war machine. One thing some of us don't understand is that they can and will take their time. Unfortunately the Nazis proved that starving sick people can build and work, and the Chinese aren't that hungry or sick. You will notice that they are taking in a lot of hard currency. They are building all sorts of resources without expending them in stupid wars. What do we have when we have a China that can stockpile weapons of mass destruction and rifles for twenty years or longer without using them, without submitting to inspection, and we're paying for it by buying godawful consumer goods from them? They're not even having to spend money to do this, not net. Did I say before that it's a lot like buying three junk cars and selling two of them for enough money to cover all the expenses for buying and refurbishing all three? America acts like it has forgotten the very basics of how to make a profit. One of the worst parts here is that when China does it to us, that country will have done it with honest work, if not honest politics.
Dude, the UN would never approve any such thing, since China is a permanent (i.e., veto-wielding) member of the security council. Not that the US would await UN approval if it wanted to go in (which it probably wouldn't).
Innovation is probably not going to be a problem in China, according to the official commie newspaper website. However, I do have to admit that a significant impedant to China's progress is the water shortage, as Light mentioned. China is a very dry landmass, overall.
Why would China want to make its water infrastructure better? Haven't you ever heard of Hydraulic Despotism?
False. They have BIGGER nukes, just like the US did 50 years ago. Once America developed sophisticated targetting and control systems, such huge nukes weren't necessary and were replaced with much smaller ones. And they're WAY behind on anti-ICBM missiles, something the US has been working on for decades. While a nuclear exchange between the two would be horrible for everyone, China would definitely see the worse of it. False. They're not even close, and have only recently started building their own planes. True, but so what? It's only an issue if the US wants to invade mainland China, and why would they? Also, the disparity in troop numbers is nowhere near the disparity in populations (the US has about 1.5 Million, China has about 2 Million). False. American tanks posses armor and attack capabilities multiple generations ahead of Chinese tanks. Well, they haven't even started, other than acquiring submarines. Their current strategy is simply to build up the ability to keep aircraft carriers off of their coast, via submarines and missiles. They do this because one or two US aircraft carriers could, given the vast numerical and technological superiority of the USAF, bring China's military and economy to its knees in a very short while. There's a lot of other ways of measuring military strength that are more pertinent. For example, the US has a huge lead in space systems, and you can bet they've used all those satellites to make target maps of every military and industrial site in China. And then there's battlefield communications and information integration, something America is the clear leader in. Plus, the USAF has enough long-range bombers to give China a real headache without putting aircraft carriers off their coast. Another big issue is allies: the US has tons of valuable allies, such as Japan, Europe, Korea and Australia. If China were to make any kind of belligerent moves, they'd very quickly find themselves on their own. Indeed, their position is much more precarious than America's, since they have Japan, India and Russia to worry about. Moreover, even where China looks good on paper, they are untested. All of the submarines and missiles and troops in the world aren't any good if battlefield tactics and coordination fall apart once the shooting starts. The US military, on the other hand, has not only a huge technological lead, but has been busily refining their real-world abilities with these systems in wars all over the world for the past several decades. In conclusion, let's give the alarmism a rest. Yes, China is no longer a third-world country, and they're going to gain in stature. But they've got a long way to go before they can play in the same league as the USA. They might be able to parlay their position into an eventual non-military absorbtion of Taiwan (in fact, the US already recognizes the "one China" policy), but they'd be in a world of hurt if they actually made a military move against any of the US allies in the region.
I would assume Chinese conventional tactics would be what I like to refer to as the "zergling swarm" in which you move thousands upon thousands of troops upon a position without any regard to losses and win through sheer numbers. Though I think it was called the 'wave line attack' or something. Despots use it to great advantage. Well, with desalination and purification, water does indeed = oil, as long as oil = energy.
China will invade, just as the Mongols did, when the West becomes weak enough. And it's sure on that path!
Nuclear weapons did away with that argument. As long as the West possesses them, nobody is going to invade. Seeing as America, France and Britain will never give up their nukes, the West is never going to be invaded. Why do you think Pakistan, Iran, Israel and North Korea have been in such hurries to get nukes? Who was it that said "Nuclear weapons changed everything about warfare except our thinking about it"?
