China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Saint, Nov 19, 2005.

  1. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Although Mao's policies were always authoritarian and ineffficient, and frequently disastrous, in the spirit of accuracy:

    we should note that the types of abuse suffered by the "re-educated" intellectuals were the rigors of little food and regimented isolation from family with onerous physical labor - not the kind of treatment normally described as "torture", which according to eyewitness and victim accounts (there are a few) Mao's "re-education" administrators took some pride in not doing (In the best witness account I have read, the intellectual imprisoned for "re-education" was given a tour of the torture facilities built in his prison by the former government, preserved as examples of decadent capitalist oppression and no longer used by the enlightened government of Chairman Mao, as part of the "re-education").

    and the Great Leap Forward in agriculture was launched coincidentally with the onset of a major drought that would have created great hardship under the old system as well - some researchers regarding the collapse of Mao's agricultural system as one of the early warning signs of the onset of major effects from CO2 global warming. Collectivism and centralization of control made things worse, of course, but was not the entire explanation for the hardships.

    And in that line of observation, we note that China's financial system seems to have many of the features that led to Japan's problems, the US mess, Europe's dick-stomping, and so forth. Poor regulation of the financial elite and lack of transparency in the dealings of the very rich have common consequences, and China is not immune to them.
     
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  3. kmguru Staff Member

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    China is Japan ten times and more coming...We are not and hence our fathers generation will pass away soon...
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Chinese love pork. China already has more pigs than the rest of the world does!
     
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    The POV that CO2 was a significant factor causing the draught and thus death by starvation of about 10 million Chinese would be more plausible if CO2 back then were not much lower than it is today. I'm not sure but believe Pre-Mao's "Great Leap Forward," China exported rice! Also even with current CO2 levels, I know that China raises more hogs that the rest of the world's total and production of meat is not an efficient way to feed a population.
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Superpower & pork eater. First graph is Chinese pork consumption in MILLIONS of tons!

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    There is an economic reason why Chinese meat consumption, now more than twice that of US, is "climbing to the sky" while US's is turning down. If meat is available, when Chinese per capita consumption is same as in US, their consumption will be four times greater, even if the real (inflation corrected) price is twice as high as now. Enjoy your "franks and beans" while you still can.
    Your food bill is rising faster than CPI and not only because of last year's drought in the Mid West. China has the money and the will to pay more for food than Joe American can, as Joe's salary is at best static in purchasing power and has declined over the last decade - but that is not news to many of you. Chinese salaries are growing by double digits and are significantly more than twice what they were a decade ago, in purchasing power. And to make matters worse: There are an auful lot of Chinese.

    * Damn! Why did I sell my small (~100 acre) cattle farm in Brazil 10 years ago and its 50 steers for only three times my investment.
     
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  9. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    You can buy a lot of friends, with no-strings money. Many if not most Latin America countries, Brazil included, now have China as their largest trading partner and most, again including Brazil, have bi-lateral agreements or currency swaps with China, so almost none of that trade uses dollars. With shale oil production now meeting slightly more than half of US's oil requirements, oil imports and dollars in that trade are reduced by more than half. Now more than half the world's trade does not use dollars either for buying or to settle trade imbalances!

    The US's "easy days" of paying for imports with printed green paper are comng to an end. US will need to make exportable goods and services of value equal to its imports.
     
  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    China locks up 25 years more oil:
    BTW, China gaive PetroBrass 10 billion about three years ago for 200,000 bpb for 20 years. There are several others like these.
     
  11. CHRIS.Q Registered Senior Member

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    When the US helped China? You this is bullshit.
     
  12. sanam5511 Registered Member

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    its only a matter of time...isnot it??China may not have the military but their economic and industrial might is too damn great

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  13. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    But they don't yet have the political might, and without that it ain't gonna happen. The USA is the largest economy in the "Western" economic bloc, which includes such powerhouses as Japan, Germany, the U.K. and France. We've also got gigantic petroleum reserves. (Sure most of them are in Canada but the Canadians are no fools and will continue to sell us as much as we want.)

    China will certainly become the world's largest economy in the next decade or two, but economic might isn't very effective without political might, and they ain't got it.

    Much of China's economy is based on manufacturing products for the U.S. market. Over the last couple of decades, Mexico has quietly turned itself into a middle-class country with the resources to take over that manufacturing function. The U.S. will happily switch production from China to Mexico for a number of reasons:
    • Next to Canada, Mexico is our most loyal ally. They've loved us ever since we helped them overthrow the French occupation a century and a half ago. The Chinese only want our money; the Mexicans want our hearts.
    • We like Mexico and the Mexicans a lot better than we like China and the Chinese. We're not blind to all that love oozing northward. Not to mention, a huge portion of our population is of Mexican ancestry.
    • We trust the Mexicans a lot more than the Chinese. They will not knowingly sell us poisonous dog food.
    • We can oversee operations in Mexico because it's right there, where millions of American retirees, expats, hippies and artists already live. Adding a few managers to that mix is easy.
    • It's cheaper to ship components to the manufacturer and the finished goods home if the manufacturer is one inch away across a land border, instead of thousands of miles away across an ocean.
    • This means that we can make more components here and ship them to Mexico for assembly than we could afford to do with China. The average Chinese product destined for the U.S. market has only 5% American-made content. The average Mexican product has 40%. More jobs for Americans!
    If China slowly loses its biggest trading partner by attrition, its economy is not going to grow so big so fast.

    Being from the Southwest, I love Mexico and its people. It couldn't happen to a nicer country!
     
  14. wegs Matter & Pixie Dust Valued Senior Member

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    I agree with fraggle rocker ^^

    I used to be in commercial insurance, and there was a time when China (not that long ago, really...maybe less than a decade ago) didn't have to purchase pollution liability insurance. As is compulsory in the U.S. Guess what. Now they do! If you are an american based company operating there, you need to purchase pollution liability insurance. This is of signifcance to me, because from being in the business, I thought what an edge this country has over the U.S. U.S. companies pay billions of dollars in mandatory commercial policies. Due to the deaths, recalls, and lawsuits...CEO's with companies in China, or China based company CEO's are now being forced to purchase insurance to protect against lawsuits brought about by pollution and environmental risks. I say this because for lack of a better phrase...it just wasn't fair that american businesses pay such high prices of insurance to stay in business, while China didn't. Which is why they can sell products for so cheap. So...point is. You WILL see prices of China made products going up. And the playing field will be...'fair.'
     
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    As post 1293 has hit the 3 photos limit, by edit, I again make my point that only China has an organizational structure to cope with the modern world with one more photo, posted here.

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    World's most beautiful and efficient airport (Linear design has internal shuttle trains to move passengers and their bags quickly to their gate from parking lot) was built for the Chinese Olympics in less time than England spent just in public hearings for a minor expansion of Heathrow Airport! The main section of the airport is slightly more than a kilometer long.

    Here begins original post 1292:

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    and their wealth is rapidly growing. Why most corporate profits now come from there and not the US or EU. They are "first time buyers" not "replacement buyers" - I.e. buying their first refrigerator or new car. etc.
     
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  16. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Don't miss the three photos supporting my point at the end of this post and one at start of prior post.
    Not yet, but political power flows from economic power. (No longer from the "barrel of a gun" in the nuclear bomb /ICBM "mutual stand off" age.)*
    Yes and China is very happy about that too, tired of selling to US and UE who need loans to buy with. China's stated goal is to switch from an export based economy to a domestic one. This is why the salaries are growing by double digits in purchasing power. Why the CCP has made the out of pocket medical cost only 1/3 of paying the total cost (instead of 2/3 as it was a few years ago), Why China is building the world's largest network of modern rails for world's highest speed trains - reducing time loss and transportation costs while making many new job through out the country, built the world largest hydro-electric and flood control project and is now completing by far the world's most massive water transfer project:
    Chinese were saving more than 50% of their disposable income until recently mainly to be able to pay for their and their parents medical cost in old age. Unfortunately, for the CCP, they still do save nearly at the same rate as long established habits die slowly. Now with the one child policy in place for a few decades, they are saving in part to help their heirs get a house. There can be up to eight grand parents and four parents for the young couple wanting to get married all of whom are happy to lend money for their buying of a house.

    Urban Chinese girls will not say “yes” to a marriage offer unless the groom to be has a home for them, which he typically buys with loans from his and her living ancestors. I. e. most new urban homes sold in China are paid up front in cash with no mortgage! Very frustrating for the CCP which wants the Chinese to be more like Americans and live beyond their means by borrowing from banks and using credit cards etc. Most, (>90%), of Chinese don't even know what a credit card is! They don't pay hardly any interest into the economy (banks and credit card companies – that is often the American's major expense, except for food in some cases.) Chinese are like Americans of the 1900s – they save up to buy rather than borrow.

    The CCP has had much more success with reducing it needs to sell to the US. In 2002, 42.4% of China's exports went to the US and in 2011 (latest data available at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html ) only 16.2% did. So 10 years ago the US was 42.4 /16.2 = 2.6 times more important to China than it is now. When China gets that down to 10% or less of its exports, it is to China's economic advantage to kill the dollar, assuming that domestic growth and exports to others, who don't need loans to buy with, can keep Chinese factories running at near capacity. Exports to others are very rapidly growing now. Many countries now, including S. Korean, Japan, Brazil, India, Russia and almost all Asian countries and many, if not most in South and Central America, have China as their main trading partner or at least a very close second. Not only that but China has dozens of “currency swap” agreements so even settling trade imbalances do not use dollars any more. Also several oil producers don't require dollars in payment for their oil – the “petrodollar” system is dying.

    China has been for several years reducing the fraction of its reserves in dollars, in part by buying gold but more by paying up front in long term (up to 30 years) delivery contract for the energy and material imports it will need in the future. For example, nearly five years ago, China gave PetroBras 10 billion dollars for 200,000 barrels of oil (daily average) delivered for 20 years. I. e. soon it will be to China's economic advantage to take a ONE TIME loss on the dollar assets still in its reserves for the EVERY YEAR lower cost of imports with deep in debt US and EU in a collapsed dollar depression.

    But the main reason why the RMB will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency is that when ready, China will back its RMB bonds with gold for central banks and the IMF if the dollar has not already collapsed. – That may happen first as now that interest rates are rapidly rising, rolling maturing debt is growing ever more costly and the US still goes deeper into debt each year.

    China is the world's largest producer of gold, but never sell even an ounce. China is now also the world's largest buyer of gold, buying more than all the mines outside of China can produce. At the present rate of Chinese buying they will buy more than 1000 metric tons in 2013 – more than twice what they bought in 2012.

    China wants to pay for its imports with printed paper as US has done for more than 30 years. To do that they need “reserve currency” status. If you don't think China is planning to back the RMB with gold, then is why China is buying so much gold and producing more than the second place producer by 40 or more percent; why are they doing that?

    Central banks will certainly prefer gold backed RMB bonds to un-backed dollar bonds, especially if they pay more interest than the US bonds do, which wealthy China can easily afford to do. There is a lot of gold, so we are told, at Fort Knox, but if it is there and it is US owned, why can Germany only gets its gold back from the US after a seven year wait? The last physical audit of the gold at Fort Knox was partial, done by Fort Knox people, not by independent auditors, and took place in 1950 – 63 year ago! I think Ron Paul had good reason to want a new independent audit.

    As I said earlier: “Political power flows from economic power.” That is what China is rapidly gaining and what the US is losing. Empires have a historical habit of falling, with surprising speed and being replaced, I sure you, with your interest in history, know. Fact that in first half of 2013, 77% of all new US jobs created were part-time, low wage jobs does not speak well for an economy based 2/3 on Joe American's consumption.

    * In his old age, Alford Nobel was asked if he did not regret putting sticks of dynamite in the hands of crooks, bank robbers, etc. His reply was, (freely translated): "My only regret is that dynamite is not powerful enough to end war." The A & H bombs have done that for larger powers like China and the US. Their struggle for world domination is via economic power now.

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    This energy efficient train goes faster than all prop-type, air planes > 500Km /hour.

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    For scale, note the large earth mover at edge, bottom center.

    Eastern and central parts will be operational in 2014 after more than a decade of intense construction and testing. The Nile flow is just over 80 cubic kilometers per year. (reference at: http://www.google.com/#fp=b1848aaff8811878&q=annual flow of nile river) and a cubic Km is 1000^3 cubic meters, or Nile moves 80 billion cubic meters vs. China is moving 44.8 billion cubic meters. I.e. the Nile moves less than twice as much water as China will but the Nile moves its water slightly more than twice a far. No other man-made water project come even close (not even within 3%) to what China has done to improve the economic health of the nation as world moves into the era of water shortages! China's "half Nile" does a trick nature's Nile can't do: It delivers water to the Beijing area 45 meters higher than its source! (2.8 billion kWh/year pumping energy) China started funding studies for this world's largest water project in 1950!

    Lake Powell and Lake Mead supply much of the water needed by S. W. USA and they are going dry:

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    The US does not have an organizational structure to solve its largest water problem, with Congress mainly interested in the next election and not funding multi-decade-long water projects with first benefits long after they have left office. With cost of ~10% of China's 62 billion dollars, US could transfer water from the Great Lakes, mainly via existing rivers, to save the South West from disaster, but that will not be done by Congress.

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego says: "... There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, ... Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, ..." From: http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876

    SUMMARY: Yes, economic power and ability to use it via multi-decade planning** leds to political power and ability to dominate the world.
    ** China has 10 "five-year" plans, each becoming precisely detailed and adjusted as they come closer to the present. The central committee of the CCP is elected for 10 year terms and often serves several. Its members mainly have advanced engineering degrees, although a couple are economists and geologists. Unlike the US Congress and administration, where >90% were educated as lawyers, there is not a single lawyer high up in the CCP!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 27, 2013
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    The Diversified Employment of China's Armed Forces
    Information Office of the State Council / The People's Republic of China / April 2013, Beijing
    Contents (updated on 9/9/13)
    Preface
    I. New Situation, New Challenges and New Missions
    II. Building and Development of China's Armed Forces
    III. Defending National Sovereignty, Security and Territorial Integrity
    IV. Supporting National Economic and Social Development
    V. Safeguarding World Peace and Regional Stability
    Concluding Remarks
    Appendices

    A small part of section II follows. Read all at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/China-Military-Watch/2013-09/09/content_16953672.htm

    China's armed forces are composed of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) and the militia. They play a significant role in China's overall strategies of security and development, and shoulder the glorious mission and sacred duty of safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests.

    PLA Army (PLAA) mobile operational units include 18 combined corps, plus additional independent combined operational divisions (brigades), and have a total strength of 850,000. The combined corps, composed of divisions and brigades, are respectively under the seven military area commands (MACs):

    PLA Navy (PLAN ) has a total strength of 235,000 officers and men, and commands three fleets, namely, the Beihai Fleet, the Donghai Fleet and the Nanhai Fleet. Each fleet has fleet aviation headquarters, support bases, flotillas and maritime garrison commands, as well as aviation divisions and marine brigades. In September 2012, China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning was commissioned.

    The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is China's mainstay for air operations, … is primarily composed of aviation, ground air defense, radar, airborne and electronic countermeasures (ECM) arms. The PLAAF now has a total strength of 398,000 officers and men, and an air command in each of the seven Military Area Commands (MACs) of Shenyang, Beijing, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Chengdu. In addition, it commands one airborne corps. Under each air command are bases, aviation divisions (brigades), ground-to-air missile divisions (brigades), radar brigades and other units.

    The PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF) is a core force for China's strategic deterrence. It is mainly composed of nuclear and conventional missile forces and operational support units, primarily responsible for deterring other countries from using nuclear weapons against China, and carrying out nuclear counterattacks. The PLASAF has under its command missile bases, training bases, specialized support units, academies and research institutions. It has a series of "Dong Feng" ballistic missiles and "Chang Jian" cruise missiles.

    The PAPF is composed of the internal security force and other specialized forces. The internal security force is composed of contingents at the level of province … and mobile divisions. Specialized PAPF forces include those guarding gold mines, forests, hydroelectric projects and transportation facilities. The border public security, firefighting and security guard forces are also components of the PAPF.

    The militia is an armed organization composed of the people not released from their regular work. As an assistant and backup force of the PLA, the militia is tasked with participating in the socialist modernization drive, performing combat readiness support and defensive operations, helping maintain social order and participating in emergency rescue and disaster relief operations.
     
  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Oct 1 is special in US too.

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    In China it is an important "moon holiday." Anyone recall how many different stacks of US dollars, equal to the US debt, can reach the moon? Answer:

    the national debt could circle the Earth at the Equator 45.6 times or It would also stretch nearly five times the distance of the Moon from the Earth (238,855 miles).
    - See more at: http://cnsnews.com/mrctv-blog/grego...-stretch-earth-moon-five#sthash.3HOF8liW.dpuf
     
  19. Anew Life isn't a question. Banned

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    made in china it ain't china it's asia (maybe people think china is a ruling authority because the baby boom is worldwide and seemingly unending)
    I think internationaly there is a turning towards stopping war yet why the human haste still a problem, and the nonhuman world shows this to us humans often in light of weather disasters!

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    want to

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    make

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    friendlie

    straight

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    Live and let live
     
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Test flights, landings and takeoffs were successfully completed on China's first aircraft carrier before the ship returned to port in Qingdao of east China's Shandong Province.

    See video here: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/a-fi...-aircraft-carrier-mywaWrRDRLWXUuBsIQxuKg.html From late 20011 or early 2012, I think, but now released by China.

    One minor thing, I noticed, was there are two "center lines / guide lanes" that converge to a point at the up turned front. I think that is so jet on one can safely be only a second or so behind the other, just launched one, instead of several seconds behind, if both were on same launch lane. I don't think the US does this, except with twin catapult launches. The Chinese jets need the full runway to take off as there are no catapults. In the video, even though only one is taking off, he follows the left off center guide line.
     
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    As I have predicted for years, the day when it is to China's economic advantage to destroy the dollar (assuming the dysfunctional Congress does not do that before the end of this month)is soon coming now. (a few years more at most.) Then China will do so by backing RMB bonds (for central banks and IMF only, probably at first) and pay higher interest on them than US can afford. I.e. make them the preferred reserve currency almost over night. Then, China, not the US gets to pay for its imports with printed paper. (and benefit of bankrupt US and EU importing less so seller must lower prices) China already has decreased the fraction of its exports that go to US from 42% five years ago to less than 16% now! When China backs the RMB bonds with gold, China will tell the US:
    Go to Hell. We don't need to sell to you and won't lend more to you. Our factories are hard pressed to supply domestic demand and customers with cash.

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    Soon, "Paper Gold" will not be able to set the price of gold much longer. Physical demand will.
    Many dozens of people have claim to each deliverable ounce of the "registered gold." Some of the smarter ones have in only one week moved ~10% of all the Comex's vault registered gold into the "elegible gold" status - I.e. it now belongs to them and only them. Can not be given to others with claims on the registered gold, (Solid green curve) which is now rapidly shrinking as I predicted it would in posts in this thread, several months ago. This and more at http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?134352-Gold-Bubble-goes-POP&p=3104392&viewfull=1#post3104392
     
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  22. wellwisher Banned Banned

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    Notice what has caused this emergence; more free enterprise and less socialism. They have learned the secret of less micro-managing of the economy with regulations that stunt growth allowing more choice in the private sector. Also China is a loaner nation and not a borrower nation. China is also not a welfare state but is leaving this situation behind. Based on these observations, one might conclude that the opposite would be true or as any government gains too much power and over-regulates, borrows and controls too much, a nations super power status will begin to reverse. This is good example at a huge scale.
     
  23. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Only recent currency swaps are mentioned here. With Japan, India, Brazil, Russia, S. Africa and dozen more that are from former years have been made and dollar not used for trade balance settlements if swaps exist. Note China's currency swaps total ~360 Billion dollars in value. PetroDollar is dying.
    As US now buys less than 16% of China's exports, US economic collapse would not much damage China. (Trade with others is growing several times more rapidly than with US.)
    * If you don't know; PBOC = People's Bank Of China. Note also both quotes are from 12 Oct 13 issue of China Daily.
     
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