To answer your question directly, in 2010 China imported 1.395 trillion dollars worth from rest of world. That "{China´s} trade would collapse if US does" is a very egotistical claim for you or the US to make. Other than its trade with US few of China´s trades settle in dollars now. Most of China´s trade now is via local currencies under at least two dozen currency swap agreements. Lets look at the facts thru 2010 even though they don´t reflect the continuing decrease in importance in last 2+ years of China´s trade with the US: (Part of post 1141 of this thread.) I´m just guessing but bet now the US buys at most 10% of China´s exports. In part because the low value added good goods now come from other Asian nations. – China´s worker had have double digit real wage increases for several years and China has lost competitively to Indonesia, Vietnam etc. for export of the junk they once sold the US. – Now they sell the US iPods, smart phones, digital camera, and computers etc, - high value added items. No I think dollar will a decreasing part of the IMF´s SDRs and the RMB an increasing and more important part, as China will back it bonds (for IMF and central banks only) with gold. I.e. the dollar´s dominance is coming to and end and the petrodollar is soon dead. (Part of post 1101 of this thread.) I can´t find the post with link to data, but remember the main point well: Just the INCREASE in China´s trade with other main land Asian nations (all the way to & including Iran) in 2012 & 2013 will be greater than the TOTAL trade with the US in 2011! I.e. even if China did not have a dime´s worth of trade with the US in 2014 their trade would still be greater than it was in 2011! And that does not even count their increasing trade with non-mainland Asian nations like Australia, Brazil, Canada and more than a dozen in Africa! China does not need a healthy US and soon will benefit if US can´t import as the dollar has collapsed. This was the claim of China´s just past president in his keynote address to a conference of these nations. The conference group is about 17 years old but is so greatly expanded recently that it has been renamed and this was the first year under the new conference name. Nearly 100 countries and autonomous tribal groups were represented at the congress.
I have historical proof to back my claims, the last recession in the US set of economic waves across the world and even set back china growth a bit, and that was not even a "depression"! The USA is not going to collapse in the vacuum, its going to take much of the world with it, and most of the world including china will be affected badly for several years at least. No but many of those countries need a healthy USA, I don't know if you have noticed but in today's globalized super-capitalism if one big country has an economic recession it affects almost everyone else, and if the worlds largest economy (USA) falls any time soon everyone is going to be hurting, and there trading partners and the partners of their partners like dominoes. In short the world, not just china, needs a healthy USA and now vise versa.
Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! He is an example of why there will be no revolt of the masses in China: All are experiencing at least double digit real increases in their incomes and the very old remember the periods of mass starvation (and tell the great grand childern how terrible it was). Things are so much better now. I don´t have time to reply to your post 1262 but note I have often said China and its suppliers like Brazil, etc. will have a recession if debt collapses the dollar at end of 2014 - but not a long lasting one as trade with EU & US is losing relative importance rapidly. Possibly not even a recession if China, rather than the US´s self inflicted wounds, determines when the dollar collapses - I.e. say in 2016 or later.
First of all those people will be pissed if they stop seeing double digit increases in their pay, second the EU and the US are still China largest trading partners, Brazil is not even in the top ten! third of all we will see won't we if your prophecies are correct?
I wrote this a year ago, China Reduced Treasury Holdings for Second Straight Month as Yields Fell http://www.performancetradingconcepts.com/index.php?topic=203.0 China Vulnerable to Asset Bubbles, Warns IMF http://www.performancetradingconcepts.com/index.php?topic=104.0
By that logic the US, where people have much less fear of their goverment than the Chinese do and where the purchasing power of medium salary has been decreasing for ~5 years and where the middle class is a shrinking fraction of the population and where the gap between the rich and poor is rapidly growing should be in violent revolt against its government. Thanks for table listing China´s top ten trading partners with exports separately given. According to your table china sent to EU and US in 2011, 365 & 324.5 billion or 0.6895 trillion dollars worth of exports. Also interesting data at your link is fact that 30 nations had China as their largest trading partner in 2011 (Probably 35 now as China´s penetration of Africa is rapidly growing and a few new nations have come into existence there – Old Sudan is now two, etc.) Interestingly the financial trouble in EU, being worse than those of the US, has let the US become China´s largest trading partner again, soaking up in 2012, 17% of China´s exports, but much less than the 23.1% China sent to US in 2010. (See data in post 1261) So the importance of the US in China´s exports is falling by slightly more than 2.5% per year. I.e. in 2014, US will buy less than 15% of what China exports even though it is China´s largest trading partner! (but much less if, as I predict, there has been a run on the dollar by Halloween 2014.) This is also reflected in the fact that China now trades with ~35 countries which have China as their largest trading partner. Thus, the US & the EU were in 2011 only 0.6895/1.8986 = 36.3% of china´s exports. Or considering the US only its percent of the total Chinese exports in 2011 was: 0.3245/18986 = 17.1% a very significant 6% drop from the 23.1% a year earlier. China´s exports are rapidly growing but those to the US are a rapidly falling percentage of the total. So as I said, if US collapses after 2016, and China´s exports to the “too broke to buy” US suddenly drop by 50%, it will have little impact on the Chinese economy. – Probably a mild recession lasting less than a year as US & EU sink into deep, long-lasting depression. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! China´s exports are rapidly rising, but percent to US is rapidly falling! I.e. US (and EU which now buys less than US) are becoming relatively unimportant to China´s exporters. I´m too lazy to add up 12 +12 numbers in bar chart, but my "eye ball" estmate indicates China´s exports are still growing by > 20% per year even though those to US and EU are a rapidly falling percent. * Note Chinese imports are growing 4.6% faster than it growing exports. China is having some success with getting its population to spend more and convert itself into an ecomomy where domestic consumption is more important than exports. When that official goal has been achieved, surely then China will say to the US: Go to Hell. We no longer lend to you. We don´t need you to buy our exports now.
The USA has freedom of speech and a far less oppressive goverment. The USA has a much large GDP per person, we can afford to take a hit. The USA is not rampant with pollution, or has agents running around forcibly aborted peopled babies and neutering people like they were animals. China has had multiple student revolutions in the last few decades with multiple city large scale revolts, the USA has not. In short there are many difference between the USA and China such that one cannot assume they would act the same in economic down. turn. Does not change the fact that the EU and USA are China largest trading partners by far both in export and import. Brazil by the way, is about $55 billion in roughly 50/50 import/export with china, growing fast but still 1/8 to 1/10 that of the US o EU, or 1/20 them combined. Also if this is new to you that is surprising as this is something that takes seconds to look up on google, its suggest an information bias and tunnel vision on your part, maybe you should rethink the chances on some of your prophesies? Again what about all those other countries china trades with, you don't think the downfall of the USA won't hurt them and thus China? If the USA falls so will the EU, so will Japan, so will Korea, Taiwan, etc, most of the top export/importers would be gone. You keep ignoring this logic.
No surprise as Brazil has still a relatively poor population* with weak buying power compared to the US. The average income in Brazil may be less than the poverty level in the US. -It was a few years ago but that may no longer be true. Why would I be surprised, considering also Brazil´s population is only about half as large as the US´s is? But as you noted, Brazil´s buying from China is rapidly growing. Brazil also has nothing to do with my prediction made when GWB was POTUS. That was based mainly on his stupid and destructive decisions and policies. The specific date for the collapse was more set by the fact, known with certainty back then, that more than 10,000 baby boomers would be leaving their high tax paying jobs and become collectors of funds from the US and their saving EACH DAY at start of 2012 and continue to do so for more than a decade. The US has promised much more that it can deliver to them. That should make some discontent too. Yes - a mild recession of a year or so I have posted. I agree EU and Japan will fall with the US, if not before, but not S. Korea or Taiwan or India or most of the ~35 countries that have China as their main trading partner already. I have suggested that Brazil and Australia, to a lesser extent will become "economic colonies" of Asia, especially China but that is not collapse. * When I had a small cattle ranch in Brazil, I paid my very intelligent but nearly illiterate worker (44 hours per week) ~$100 per month. This angered other absentee land owners - Their workers received much less and were now asking for more!
Is this reply to me? I don't know what you define as "fall" but those countries will most certainly suffer, sure on relative terms not as badly as others but ALL the world economies we suffer if/when the US and EU fall. Yes certainly years later after the recovery China and India and Brazil, etc will be better off then the US or EU, but those years will not be looked back on as "Yeah we fucked those American pigs!" it will be look upon as "America and Europe collapses and those were hard times" See that just crazy, even a 5% loss in one year would be dramatic and cause lasting damage for many years to come, we are talking about losing 10-20 maybe 30% of the worlds economy. That is not a "mild recession"!
by the "fall" in China,Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials, energy, & food stocks (grains mainly) to Asia and China especially, I mean (and have said) a recession lasting less than a year, not a depression of at least decade as in US & EU. Here is why: I do assume the deep phase of the depression comes to US & EU, near the end of 2015 or later. - I.e. when exports to US and EU are at most 10% of China´s exports and much less than China´s domestic market is then buying - keeping Chinese factories quite busy still. In fact be producing more than they ever have.
Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! China already has more high speed rail tracks than rest of the world´s total and by 2016 more subway tracks too, or soon thereafter!
"Working Together Toward a Better Future for Asia and the World" - Keynote Speech by H.E. Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2013 - Boao, Hainan, 7 April 2013 {two points from it} * I.e. intra Asian trade is growing at 100 billion dollars per year and 1300 billion now - more than twice the total trade with US, which in 2012 was 536 billion (sum of exports and imports). Why trade with US is rapidly becoming of little relative importance to China. I.e. China, at worst, will have mild slow down in its growth when US dollar collapses. ~35 countries already have China as their main trading partners and little of it is in dollars now. 400 million rich Chinese tourists annually seeing the world! Wow! No wonder Paris Hilton has a Chinese blog with large following. Think what you like about her conduct and morals, but that bitch is no dummie. -------------------------- -------------------------- Just because you never heard of Boao or even this island providence does not mean it matters little to you:
Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Foto caption: Premier Li Keqiang welcomes his Icelandic counterpart Johanna Sigurdardottir outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Monday, when China and Iceland signed a free trade agreement. A peronal note: On one of my many trips to Norway, via the most economical Icelandic Air, one of the plane´s motors swallowed a goose as we flew along the southern coast line. Every plane they had was in service, so we were put up (free of course) in very nice hotel while motor was cleaned, etc. and given a tour of the capital city, which is heated by geothermal water, and part of that facility too. - Typical of Scandinavian countires, Icelanders love their country and don´t throw trash in its steets or along the country´s roads, etc. With good public transportation and very little fossil fuels burned, the city air is unbelievely fresh and pure. Back then, their planes had to land in the capital for more fuel - why we were low and going along the coast.
I don't see what freedom of speech and oppression have to do with China being a super power. The FBI regularly silences dissidents, and normal peoples voices are drowned out by the corporate media. The FBI probably spends about 70% of its time investigating political opponents. Does this make the U.S. less of a super power? I don't think so. Look at what the white man has done to the native americans. If you don't call that oppression, I don't know what is. 1 out of 3 black men will end up in prison in the U.S.. The U.S. regime killed 1 million Iraqis in the past few years, but that doesn't take away the fact that the U.S. is a super power. If anything, it makes people more afraid. Despite all the claims made by the shills, the west still recognises the People's Republic of China, as opposed to the Taiwan regime. Why is that? Either the west lacks integrity, and sells out its own allies or the west loves oppression and dictatorship. Which is it? Speaking of dictatorships, why is the west on such friendly terms with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore, Israel, and the UAE. And how do you explain Marcos, Noriega, Pinochet, and Suharto? Not to mention Sadam, who was western backed for most of his career. As far as pollution goes, again, I don't see what that has to do with a country's super power status. BP spilled oil all over the ocean, this doesn't change western hegemony one bit. Japan dumped 11,000 tons of nuclear toxic waste into the ocean after Fukishima. How about Exxon Valdez? Western regimes were responsible for the two biggest oil spills in history. Again, this doesn't change their status in the world, nor does anyone really dare to question them, with the exception of a handful of countries. The U.S. is the second polluter in the world, yet it produces nothing. The U.S. bombs Iraqis, and Afghans with depleted uranium, and that is the norm now. As you know, depleted uranium makes the land permanently uninhabitable. Still, that doesn't change America's status as a super power. The U.S. hasn't had any large scale city revolts? I guess you will admit that Occupy Wall Street was a controlled opposition operation then. And one of the reasons why the U.S. does not have any revolts is not because people don't hate their own government, but maybe because the FBI arrests all the dissidents before they revolt. Counter-intelligence can pretty much measure your level of dissent, along with how much influence you have on others right now. If I am not mistaken, there was a bloke arrested for saying this on facebook "Why is it everytime I turn on the news I only hear about how British troops get killed, and I never hear about the Iraqis or Afgans who get killed by British troops?" Not only does the U.S. regime do pre-emptive strikes, but also pre-emptive arrests too. And if you think that the Chinese arrest everyone, you need to check the statistics. The USA has 6 times more prisoners per capita than China. Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Ireland, and Canada all have more prisoners than China per capita. I think China's downfall will be that it is too soft. If China wants to be a superpower, then perhaps they need to take some of the counter-intelligence measures being taken by the Japanese, south Korean, Israeli, Singaporian, USA, Canadian, Australian, and British regimes. China loves to copy foreigners. The problem is, they're copying the wrong things. If you want to defeat the enemy, you must become the enemy. If China wants to get ahead, it might have to get its hands dirty every now and then. My papi told me that if someone hits me once, I must hit them back twice. The west has brought the world to levels lower than ever seen in human history. If you want to defeat the west, you must be twice as dirty as the west. It's a race to the bottom. And what's this talk about how people depend on the USA? No one depends on the USA. It is the USA who depends on others. The USA, along with the west, monopolises the market. The sooner the west falls, the sooner the rest of the world can claim their piece of the pie. If the USA, EU, Japan, Israel, south Korea, and Taiwan fall, then guess what? Latin America, Africa, south Asia, Russia, Arabia, and southeast Asia will rise. The fact of the matter is, the current players are holding everyone else back. Instead of seeing the Japanese make all the cameras, and video games, you might actually wake up one day and see video games coming out of the Congo, cameras out of Pakistan, laptops designed by Cuba, airplanes coming out of Somalia, and the market wont be rigged the way it is now. Sometimes I really wonder, why the hell does an African need tissues from Kimberly Clark? And you might actually find yourself saying, hey, I kinda like this Congo video game. Once the USA, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand fall, you might actually see the native people take a bigger role in their countries, instead of being marginalised by white men in suits. The world economy is a lot like musical chairs, and since the USA, EU, Japan, Australia, Canada, etc are laying on entire rows of chairs, and not allowing others to sit, the others are standing. Once the USA, south Korea, Japan, EU, Australia, Canada gets pushed off these chairs, then the rest of the world gets to do what they were meant to. I also believe that if the USA, Canada, and the rest of the axis of evil falls, then the number of wars will also be reduced because it always seems like the USA, Britain, Holland, or France is usually behind these "civil wars". With a post western world, you are very likely to see Sunnis and Shias working on projects together. Joint ventures between Indians and Pakistanis. Korea would unite as one, as would Sudan. As much as I'd like to see the west dethroned, I don't think China will be a super power, and for reasons very different from what the shills on here have mentioned. Billy mentions a lot of problems with the west, but he doesn't understand the problems in China. This is what China is dealing with. Although many of you are unaware, China has a lot of traitors. Some of them may not even be traitors, they just only care about themselves, and will do whatever it takes to get rich, including betray their own compatriots. I've talked to some PLA members and they seem pro-western to me. I know a guy who goes around town wearing a Blackwater tshirt. Some Chinese who claim to be patriots are saying that it is now the norm to be a traitor. Chinese society as a whole has become westernised. Sometimes when you look at China, you think that in 30 short years, the west has been able to destroy what took the Chinese 5000 years to build. Now you may not think that destroying their culture is important, but I think that it can be as deadly as an actual war. Now the question I have is, if everyone has become so westernised, then who's going to be fighting a war against the west? For 35 years now, China has been run by a pro-western government, this is why you see them putting so much money into the west, both in terms of bank accounts, and treasury bonds. Most of them also have kids studying or living in the west. Most of the rich people buy mostly western stuff, meaning that most of China's money will be returning to the west. Not to ordinary westerners, but the western oligarchs certainly feel the benefit. The most expensive purchases that Chinese people make are foreign branded. I'm not economic expert, but foreign branded stuff is all over China, yet can any of you name a Chinese branded car, motorcycle, cigaret, wine, or computer? But actually, the Chinese make high end stuff in all the sectors, however, they are blocked by western protectionism. My point here is that the Chinese are not allowed to sell their stuff overseas, but the entire world is able to penetrate the Chinese market. Everything in China is foreign, from toothpaste to booze. The fact of the matter is, the Chinese are actually losing the battle on their own soil. Coca-cola actually sells cheaper bottled water than domestic brands like Nong Fu. Chinese hard drives made by Aigo are more expensive than their Japanese, American, and Korean counterparts. Chinese stuff that you see in the west is not actually from Chinese enterprises. You might see a Sony product that is made in China, but Sony takes most of the profits, not China. They make things for foreign corporations. This is very different from selling their own brands. Chinese streets are flooded by Korean, Japanese, American, and European cars. On the other hand, if you walk the streets of Japan, Korea, USA, or Europe, you'll probably not see a single Chinese car. Also, when we talk about China exporting stuff to the west, what does this actually mean anyway? If China exports an iphone worth $500, does this mean that China made $500? Because I don't think they did. A selfish Taiwanese businessman like Guo Tai Ming maybe gets $50 of that, but that doesn't necesarily mean that China as a country got anything out of it. Like most corrupt thieves, Guo probably has all his bank accounts in the west. A lot of peole make the mistake of believing that Chinese will do whats in the interests of China, or that Americans will do what's in the interest of America, but the reality of it is a class struggle. The parasites of China have a lot more in common with American parasites, than they do with Chinese workers. Now although China won't be a super power, I've heard from many that the west is actually afraid for China to collapse,(despite what the shills say) because the next government that comes around may not be as pro-western as the current one. The west is making a killing off of China today, and if there were to be an anti-imperialist government that came into power after the current one, then the west will see its profits decline. Having an anti-imperialist China is not the most frightening part. The most frightening would be that many in the world will follow China's lead, and overnight western puppets gain their independence. If you look at what Chinese people are unhappy about- pollution, corruption, food safety, and crime, these are all things that came with capitalism, and what most capitalist regimes are unable to address, so if the masses are smart, then they would likely turn to the left, because historically speaking, it is only the leftists who can correct these issues. But let's be frank, the last time China had organic food, no pollution, no corruption, no scams, no crime, people actually trusted each other, and crooks actually went to prison, was when Mao was alive. Who knows, maybe the corruption of the west itself will lead to the ascendency of China. One example I shall use is how the military industrial complex keeps selling junk to the government at the taxpayers expense. You got U.S. government contractors selling a 10 cent nail to the government for $100. Europe is no better. And the next big revolution might be in the west, and this time it wont be controlled dissent. People will only accept so much fascism until they revolt. The psyops conducted by the west, the shills, and counter-intel show the west's weakness. They are ripe for revolution, and collapse. The leftists call the U.S. a paper tiger. Strong confident rulers don't need to hire shills to come online peddling the status quo, and play mind games. It's a matter of time before people see through the act. No con lasts forever. I just saw the film Oz the great and powerful (which sucked by the way), and it made me think how much the western oligarchy resembled the Wizard of Oz. Behind the big weapons, and military bases is a weak, fragile, and very little vulnerable coward inside the little booth. Underneath all the sensation, and hype is just a small time con man winging it. As the Chinese would say, the west simply has lost the mandate of heaven. Actually, they never had it to begin with.
I tried to do the same for India too, a year later...but they did not want to grow like China...so it is China and will be China...
With your praise of Mao, and sugggestion that if the masses were smart, they would return to the China of Mao, It is clear you know little of what life was like under Mao. You are correct however that about 10 million ate only "organic food" - We call it grass, but they still starved to death eating grass. I think the BBC has a more accurate understanding of what China was like under Mao: Not only was Mao able to trun food exporting China into a nation were at least 10 million starved to death, by sending college professors, and others who might disagree to labor in the farms fields or be tortured in "educations camps" until they learned to love Mao and his reforms; Mao was also able to destroy the foundation of China´s potential for modernizing - steel production: Not to mention destruction of a large fraction of all useful small iron hand tools, cooking pots, machinery and a two small steel bridges. Workers had to met their productions quotes, to get their ration cards stamped, so real steel was converted back into useless pig iron. Some house of wood and barns were destroyed too, as fuel and carbon source for the backyard "steel" furnaces! Here are three different collective´s "backyard steel" furnaces: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Hungry population forced to make "steel" 24/7 ! * In case you don´t know about the "Let Hundred Flowers Bloom" it was a program calling for helpful ideas. Quite a few intellectuals etc. came forward trying to help China progress - they were sent to re-education camps and tortured and few left alive.
Napoleon was right: “When the dragon awakes, it will shake the world.” (As well as settle the moon.) China - the-morphing-dragon: * Read four pages at: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...159605~piPK:64157667~theSitePK:489961,00.html ** Better than link in the quote, I think is this link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/china-imitator-innovator which includes this text: "China’s economic success over the past three decades has been widely regarded as the result of its ability to produce manufactured goods at low cost, building on the availability of cheap labour and scale economies, while relying on existing (albeit in part advanced) technologies of production.*** China’s ability to upgrade its technology-base and its moving up the value-chain has been widely regarded as hampered by weak (intellectual) property rights enforcement (Zhao 2006). More recently, however, there has been increasing evidence that China is catching up fast in terms of scientific and technological innovation. Strikingly, the number of domestic invention patent filings with the Chinese patent office has increased at an average annual rate of 35%, from around 15,600 to over 122,000 during the period 1999-2006 (WIPO Statistics Database, January 2011) ..." *** And in volume: Foxconn is installing 100,000 production line robots to cope with the rapidly rising labor costs.
