Oh yes I can't comprehend what your saying at all, call me what you will, I just want you to clarify in irrefutable parameters what your saying, is that to much to ask? Ok then when will this begin to happen then? What is a clear indicator of it happening, clear raise in inflation, what? I'm not saying events starting in 2014(?) to impractical food costs by 2016 is a one day transition, but are you suggesting at least that by 2016 we will know it has happened (what ever that is exactly) and clearly be able to detect it in the food price inflation that is causing starvation in the middle class? And specify what china has to do with this exactly?
No, but I have told you already: Here is a list of some hall marks to watch for: (1) Interest rates on 10 year treasury bond increasing by more than 50% per year. (Already from the 23 April12 low they are up 32% in slightly less than half a year!) (2) Food prices rising faster than CPI with more of the lower middle class joining the poor on the growing list of food stamp receivers. (3) Fraction of the adults with full time job declining, as it is now and has been for several years. (4) Purchasing power of median or typical salary declining by more than 1% per year (and it has been for about five years now).* (5) Fed being the largest buyer of Treasury bonds (as it has been for two or three years now.) (6) Gold and farm land climbing back to new high prices. (7) Rapid growth in early collection of Social Security and disability insurance, especially due to "back injury," which is hard to proof false. (If they don´t get photographed playing 18 holes of golf, etc.) Now don´t misunderstand. I am not saying all these things will happen and certainly not all at the same time on "collapse day." When the collapse of the dollar began will, like when recessions begin, be a lively discussion (except in an unlikely event like US losing its investment grade rating due to dead-locked Congress, etc.) many months after all agree the dollar is collapsing in value. These are just some indicators that the collapse is soon coming or has already started. Yes you will know by 2016, but there will be very little if any "starvation" even for the poor, certainly not the middle class but it will continue to grow smaller as a fraction of the population as the poor fraction on food stamps etc. increases and wealth will continue to become more concentrated in the hands of the top 1% with increasing need / use of the National Guard to control riots and prevent radical political change. Armed groups of activist may, for example, try to prevent the loading of Mississippi barges with mid west produced grains for shipment to China. Cargill may not be allowed to sell to the highest bidder, (China) etc. - Real political / economic system change is possible. Again all I have predicted is a run on the dollar on or before Halloween 2014, not when it begins. - That is not predictable, or even likely to be agreed among economist as to when it stated before 2017. (There is still some disagreement as to when GWB´s second recession began. Some Republicans want to push the start to when Obama took office.) *Note it is the dollar´s purchasing power, not the purchasing power of typical salaries that will drop by 1% per month when the collapse is well under way - clearly defined to be happening. If we should get into "run-away" inflation, the dollar´s value will drop by at least 10% per month.
So this "run on the dollar" means the value of the dollar will begin falling (it will begin inflating) dramatically at =/>15% annually? But the more you explain this the less it sounds like a "collapse", let me put this in different terms: remember the great depression, how will this relate to it, would by 2016 the affects of this "run on the dollar" be roughly more or less then the great depression? And again how does china fit into all this?
In addition to the >15% first year post run drop, I mentioned that the dollar value drop would accelerate in the second year. - I´ll give an estimate now: 20% drop in year two following the run. Thus the < 85 cent at end of year one dollar falls to < 67 cents value by end of year two, post start of the run. I think most losing 1/3 of their dollar´s buying power in two years (or less) would consider that a collapse of the dollar. This is very, very, different from what happen in the great depression. - Then the dollars were in short supply,* many locked up in failed / frozen bank saving accounts so the dollar greatly INCREASED in buying power. My MD father had an office in the 8 story tall "Medical Arts" building in Charleston W. Va. Like many other MDs still there, I don´t think he was paying the rent. - Half the offices were vacant and owner could not pay the electric bills and taxes so that impressive office building, in a prime down town location, was sold for only $500! but with the taxes still unpaid. I don´t know and too lazy to search, but bet the dollar APPRECIATED IN VALUE 1000% or more during the great depression. The the Fed followed the opposite approach - Tight sound money was the "cure" not dollar printing presses running at top speed 24/7 as now. If you have a twisted sense humor, as I do, then one of the funniest things I have ever heard was Ben Bernanke saying: " I´m not going to repeat the mistakes of the great depression. - I´ll make my own mistakes." - He sure has. - He is destroying the dollar! Again, post 1232: * Not a trillion new ones each year, hot off the presses! ** There is a slight risk that the growing masses of hungry and jobless will revolt and fundamentally change the US´s capitalistic system for one more like China has that provides double digit improvements in the living standard of the masses annually, but good propaganda and the National Guard make that unlikely.
The dollar rose in value by about 25% from 1931-1933...erasing a big drop since the creation of the Federal Reserve. Its been in freefall ever since...cheered on by both parties!Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm? Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Look at it like this and it does not look so bad: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Thanks to both Carcano & Electric for interesting graphs. Electric´s shows finer time dynamics but crude "eye ball" smoothing of it from 1960 latest point indicates to me about a 4% annual inflation rate. 72/4 = 18; or prices double in about 18 years. From Carcawno´s graph, with right angle paper corner projection, CPI = 200 at 1976 + (1/10)(2000 -1976) = 1976 + 2.4 or 1978.4 And CPI =400 (doubled) at 1976 + (6/10)(2000-1976) = 1976 + 6x(2.4) = 1976 + 14.4 = 1990.4 1990.4 - 1978.4 = 12, not 18 years to double. Doubling in 12 years is 72/12 = 6% inflation rate. More than my "eye ball" average of 4% for period 1960 thru 2010. If you focus on Carcano´s graph for only the period 1978.4 till 1990.4 this "conflict" is resolved. That period includes the 14% inflation peak of 1980, so 6% inflation rate is more valid for that shorter period than 4%. What this all means, is that inflation rate has been dropping for the two decades starting in 1990, as is obvious from Electric´s graph too. If my long standing prediction of run on dollar by Halloween 2014 is to come true, one should see and an acceleration from the current low inflation rate (<3%) to ~6% by end of 2013 so I am predicting that too. That is a bet I can lose by first couple of months* of 2014. Let´s see if I do. To be consistent with my definition of "collapse" (given in post 1234, and several times repeated) I am also expecting that the average of October 2014 & November 2014 monthly inflation rate is at least 1% per month and, if government does not play too many games with CPI calculation** (as they are planning to do to reduce the cost of Social Security´s inflation step ups), that the CPI of 1 Nov 2015 will be at least 15% higher than the CPI of 1 Nov. 2014. At least one one can say I am being vague and leaving myself a lot of "wiggle room." ---------------- * To get end of year 2013 rate, we will need a few months of data at start of 2014 also. Say average of December 2013 & January 2014´s inflation rates I am predicting will be ~6%. (I´ll also bet both of you say: "No way it will more than double in 2013 alone.") ** Government has drastically reduced the CPI calculation before - Why the "shadow CPI," which still uses the original calculation, is about twice as high as the government current CPI calculation. PS to be a little more on thread, I should say something about China, but don´t like predicting about it as the inflation (and every thing else) is all "managed" and reported with distortions. But what the hell, I go out on weak limb and say: "China´s inflation rate will be less than the US´s at start of 2015." (Currently it is more than twice the US´s rate so this would be a big change.)
I think, but have not found (help if you can) US car exports in 2012 were only about half as large as China´s. I.e. China sells more cars than any other country to its domestic market AND also is world export leader too. (They certainly lead the US in exports to Brazil and have for ~last three years.)
China is following the plan*: *To reduce income inequality and become more of a domestic lead economy.
How to compete against Billions of Communists? We need to shop in our own backyard. Corporations getting rich off the Cheap Chinese workforce need to be tamed, and large Tariffs enforced. There will soon be no "Made in China" stickers on everything, and prices will jump 20% (guessing) at retail levels.
I have long suggested China, when ready to see dollar collapse, will issue gold backed bonds for only central banks & IMF to hold (Not investors who might actually ask for the gold. Central banks may test the delivery but as now mostly prefer interest paying bonds. - keep typically <10% of reserves in gold). Here is more support for that POV in quote below from link given at end: *For more details read: http://finance.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/reports/GRH/GO/?ccode=UWD1272&em= (Note if this link does not work add your Email address at the end with no space.) But first 1/3 is self promotion and last 1/5 tries to sell you their service, but you can quickly quit and get text and graphs if you don´t want to lissen to it all in back-ground while doing other work. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! different patterns on the bars have different meanings. Gold bars with pattern of "Onward & Upward" and "Grand Prospect" make good gifts for business partners, and "Good luck and Happiness" and "Smooth Journey" for close friends, and some with "Blossoming Flowers" are designed specifically for females (but not wives, I assume. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! ) The silver bars are air-tight sealed - can be burried if you like / fear robbers (or the government) and gold, of course needs no protection in the ground.
China can destroy the dollar whenever it wants to take a one-time loss on dollars in reserves for the EVERY YEAR reduction in the cost of its imports due to US & EU being in depression and too broke to buy much in competition with China. More of the same from another source:
China may not need to destroy the dollar, if I´m correct that the growing debt (trillion more each year) and the US running dollar printing presses 24/7 (currently 85 billion per month - more than a trillion each year) does cause a run on the dollar by (or before) Halloween 2014. We are destroying US economically all by ourselves. I did not say China will destroy the dollar - I said they could, just by dumping half their Treasury bonds on the market. If I am wrong and US enters 2015 with slowly recovering economy, then developments in China determine when it is to China´s economic advantage to exercise their "destroy US economically" option - i.e. send both US and EU into deep, long-lasting depression so China pays much less every year for its imports with US and EU too broke to buy in competition. China must first, and rapidly is expanding its domestic demand. This has been going slower than they hoped as the long established practice of the Chinese population is to save at least half of their disposable income. The government is trying to re-eduate them to spend them selves into debt as Americans do, but old habits die hard. The other main requirement before China choses to send US and EU into depression, if it has not already happened, is to grow its trade with neighbors larger than its trade with the US & EU. It is doing a good and rapid job of that too. Trade with the SEATO group is increasing by more than 50% annually and with others like Brazil (China is Brazil´s main trading partner for two years now and trade mutal trade is growing ~20% per year - Brazil imports more Chery cars than all types of US cars now.) and Australia (I don´t have data on how fast its china trade is expanding but am sure it is at least by 15% year.) The trade agrement signed more than year ago with India is to bring their mutual trade (with no use of dollars) to 100 billion annually and be essentailly balanced (A good good deal for India that always has had a trade deficit with China.) When this happens is hard to predict, but it is the main objective of the new Government of China. Does it make much difference to you if it is 2016 or 2018 when China says to US: Go to Hell. We no longer lend to you. We don´t need you to buy our exports now.
Strangely, I agree, Still would like to put bets on Halloween 2014 though, since I guess dollars will be useless, want to bet in gold? Sure they could, heck the Soviets could have nukes us all into oblivion, the question is do they want to? Now you claim they would benefit with reduce import prices, what imports?: if the EU or US was to collapse economically all trade would cease up, China better perfectly self-sufficient before they try to implement "fuck over US and EU" plan for *I don't know* reason, because their millions of factory works that at paid to make products for the international market will have nothing to do and no income once America and the EU collapses. So then you agree china is not yet self-sufficient enough economically? If I had 1.1 billion people to find jobs for I would make trade with the penguins of Antarctica if they had money! If china GDP was even half of that per person as the USA china would be twice as large as the USA economically, it would be the worlds larges economy by 100%, to provide even that standard of living for that many people china can't afford not to make everyone a growing trading partner! Fuck even Japan their hated scapegoat enemies they trade about $300 billion worth and growing. Their people are pissed enough as is about the pollution, income inequality and the corruption, if they don't keep the economy growing the people will revolt, why would they sanely risk their necks to for some crazy vendetta strategy on the west?
