The day that happens will be the day that China doesn't need anyone to buy their production, because they will have become a service economy. Until then, they will need external markets to keep job growth strong. China today, like the United States back in the early 1900's, is the world's factory, and so hosts a disproportionate share of the world's manufacturing jobs. This situation can only be sustained if China also accounts for a similarly disproportionate share of the world's manufacturing sales. And that requires selling to everyone else, or production will go elsewhere to serve the rest of the world market. In other words, the day they tell the US to get lost, is the day that they see a sustained reversal in their share of world manufacturing employment. And that's not something that they plan to endure, any time soon. No, something like 80% of the car sales in China are non-Chinese brands, last I checked. Chinese brands have been improving, but are still too immature and unreliable. This is GM, Toyota, Honda and various European car makers producing and selling this stuff (often in conjunction with local Chinese partners). The part about Chinese growth is uncontroversial, but you have skipped over my point about durable goods sales data being the most unreliable indicator of future trends one can use, particularly in a downturn. Quite simply put, the fall in US auto sales should not be taken as any kind of long-term indicator. Volatility in durable goods data is such a well-known issue that no serious person would use them to make predictions. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here by assuming that you didn't realize this; if you ARE aware of this, and persist in making predictions based on durable goods sales, then that will look an awful lot like intentionally misleading. Likewise, it would be good to examine some other economic indicators when assessing the Chinese market. Imports, for example, have taken a massive downturn lately.
Before Obama I would have said you had better start studying Mandarin. But with Obama at the helm, there is a chance you might not need it.
While we have the capacity and brain power to stay on the top for a very long time, we have too many morons as political leaders that can not seem to do tough decisions....
I think our leaders have been more corrupt than dumb. But admittedly there have been some notable stupid folk in office, e.g. George II. But Obama is a new kind of leader...one that we have not seen in a long time, an honest man.
one day? wasn't that the day china bought off english and american recession debts, like a few months ago.?..... peace.
The bad part is there are too many bad apples in the basket. Let us see what happens by September. If our Economy does not turn around, rest is moot issue.
It will take obama years to pick up the mess the former shitbag leaders created. you guys are screwed compared to china. while your recooperating and licking your wounds, they are multiplying and booming and also buying off everything you guys can't afford anymore. you owe china some broken legs or a big check. do you guys think you really printed and safely borrowed that extra money?. they figures of the war funds are lies. you owe china billions, they gave you a huge amount under the table. peace.
I have a lot of respect for the Chinese. I was there teaching the art of Industrialization in mid 80s to groups of 60 to 80 people at a time through interpreters. They are not two or more times smart, but they are slightly smarter than us on average. They understand complex thoughts and expressions without spending too much time to explain it. We do have a lot of brain power too...but these days our powerful dentists are doing brain surgery...you know the outcome....
We have to stay on top of things when it comes to China. She is the bitch, and we are to be the masters.... haha I dunno, I can only wish the world luck.
My parents told me to study mandarin a long time ago, and when they told me that economic experts predicted China to be a upcoming superpower... I laughed and said that'll be the day. Until Bush came into office. UGh, GG US economy. Time to start learning my roots, maybe if I tried hard enough they wouldn't pick out my ABCness like a sore thumb.
No, not only services. China’s factories will be making the locomotives, steel rails and rolling stock, ports cranes, tractors, earth movers for road constructions, computers, TVs, cell phones, even cars and planes, etc, that they have committed to deliver to many African and South American countries in exchange for their minerals, food stocks, and energy supplies (especially from Brazil, which has all three for export) under both spot deals and 30 year contracts, already signed.* At the G – 20, president Lula and Hu Jntao discussed ceasing to use the dollar for their mutual and growing trade. (36.5 billion dollars in 2008, but I cannot tell from paper’s text if that was the total or Brazil’s exports only. I think the later as in March 2009, Brazil’s bilateral trade net surplus was +508 million dollars. ) Brazil’s top four exports to China were: Iron ore, soy, sugar and airplanes (Probably mainly finished parts for the jointly owned factory Embaraer made. – AFAIK, China has ceased to buy American planes now and has huge needs for the shorter range 100+ seat regional jets made at Harbin as the wealthy Chinese now travel by air.) Lula goes to China in May, with many industrial leaders, to firm up the currency swap details the central banks will make. I.e. before the start of 2010 Brazilian importers will get the Yuan needed to pay for their Chinese imports from Brazil’s central bank. For nearly a year now Brazil and Argentina have ceased to use the dollar in bilateral trade and Brazil is in discussion with several other S.A. countries to do the same. Brazil is in the top 10 (the top 5? – I forget.) holders of dollars in its reserves, but will soon start to hold Yuan, more I think. As you surely know China is promoting a “de-dollarization” of global trade and transfers. Again, I know that the big international auto makers own most of the car factories all over the world, but my focus is on where they are making cars, where the jobs are, and they are hiring workers instead of giving “early out” bonuses an making mass lay offs. In last post, I even mentioned that there is now no Brazilian car maker (was one, Gugel years ago.) and no car that I know of is 100% made in any one country. China does have a dozen or so –Two biggest I know of are “Great Wall motors” and Cherry but the BYD electric car, which W. Buffet owns 10% of is growing fast. (BYD = Build Your Dream and makes more Li-ion batteries than anyone else in the world, but mainly for computers until recent scale up for cars.) I know that durable sales fall faster (and diversions like theater and beer, etc. tend to rise as hard times come.) but you are wrong to assume my prediction (made four years ago and still unchanged) were based on the slump that started in October 2008! All I am really doing now is saying that many others can see that the day is coming when China tells the US to go to Hell – that US’s green paper will not buy much – that Chinese will no longer work long hours for peanuts to stock the shelve of Wal- Mart so Americans can buy cheap. This is an old prediction of mine made back when home prices and car sale were annually soaring. I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you just forgot all my old posts. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! ------------- *Here are a few of the 2009 deals China has made (in part to invest in real assets, not US treasury paper): “China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, may agree next week on lending $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right to take a stake in an oil producer in the Central Asian country. …The central Asian nation is seeking $10 billion in Chinese investments, while talks are under way with China’s biggest oil company on the sale of a stake, Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said on April 6, {2009}. …Russia, which agreed in February to supply China with oil for 20 years in return for $25 billion in credit, is in discussions with the country for additional loans for natural gas supplies … “ From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUOIM8lpvLrM&refer=home Earlier in 2009, Brazil and Venezuela each got 10 billion dollars for delivery of oil. (As I recall, Brazil gives 160,000 Barrels / day until the $10E9, priced at market daily, and has been repaid. Think Venezuela has same deal.) I cannot find article of only yesterday, but China is giving a few billion or so to Ecuador for minerals as I recall. China has expressed fear of the dollar and is doing things rapidly now to protect its self from holding too many.
Mexico needs to take care of its citizens or they can just keep unloading them. whatever is easier i guess.
Many years ago, when I was working in China, my boss's son studied Chinese and moved to Beijing for training. We knew then, China will be the super power. United States will be no.2 and India a distant no.3.
Mainly for Quadraphonics relative to my post 774: To show I have not changed my predictions or POV, slightly more than three years ago, in the midist of the real estate boom growing US economy and with all thinking I was crazy, I posted: “… (1) Certainly if Chinese banks start lending for consumption, issuing credit cards, etc, Chinese domestic demand for everything will increase, including oil consuming items such as: cars, vacation trips, airplane travel, heated houses, plastic items, etc. The US economy is built on customers willing to go deep in debt for these things, even if they cannot adequately save for their retirement (In fact, they are not saving for anything, but spending more than their incomes in recent years.) … If China does not get to re-integrate Taiwan because US is preventing this, and is forced to get economically rough with the US, that is a war they can win (unlike a military one where both lose). China is increasing its coastal defenses and has good low altitude cruise missiles (even exports many of the older "silk worm" versions.) They are placing men into space with their own technology. - It would be silly to think they have no chance of sending any ship off their coast to the bottom of the sea, … China can also use its space resources, airplanes, coastal observers, and short range high altitude missiles with adaptive terminal guidance to attack US ships. Ships are big, slow moving and very hard to hide from an optical pattern recognizing guidance system diving down on it at several times the speed of sound from more than 200,000 feet. So with no further discussion, let us assume that neither side will go to war because the other is filling or has filled a strategic oil reserve. {10Apr09 insert in blue: China now has a strategic oil reserve and is filling it with cheap oil}If china should decide to do this, as US has done, and the average Chinese has a credit card, effect (1) above, I can easily see the $150 / barrel oil (in current dollars) coming in a only a few years instead of 10. {It did, and will hit $200 when most have credit cards – few even know what they are now.}Even if it takes 10 years, the US does not have time to change the foolish suburban infrastructure it has built to one suited to the post "peak oil” era. - That is why US suburbanites will be both hungry and at risk for their lives before a decade has past. {Depression chaos & lack of order in less than the remaining 7 years, is likely IHMO. – elsewhere I have many predictions that a dollar collapse depression (can’t afford the oil needed by economy, etc.) comes before 31October 2014 (Halloween day!)} China’s CP cannot be certain that Chinese with credit cards can buy all their production, so China is building other trade partners, like Brazil, who can supply, food and raw materials (possibly even some oil, as Brazil is a net exporter now, thanks to alcohol powered cars, but more likely Chavez will stop selling to the US 30% of its oil import needs and sell them to China instead.) As thread title states, these banking change in China will drastically change American's lives - at the very least, what is on the shelves at Wal Mart …” Above From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1014553&postcount=4 made 3/27/06
Right, Africa and South America are going to replace the United States as an export market for China. You do realize that the entire GDP of Africa is something like 1/4 that of China, in ER terms? And that South America is not that much more impressive? You might as well predict that Antarctica will develop into an attractive export market.
Do you realize that the population of Africa is 922 million (2005) and growing with a continent that is bigger than USA, Europe and China combined? All the Chinese have to do is develop that resource rich continent perhaps by moving 20 million Chinese to that place. They have already started to make deals that USA would not.
