Some info here: http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/147350.htm Turns out that while they do import a huge and growing amount of coal, they are actually a net exporter. However, Chinese coal production is expected to drop over the coming years, while demand is steadily rising, so they should wind up a net importer before too long...
Ha ha, I got distracted and you beat me to it..... http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/147350.htm "China, the world's biggest coal producer, last year bought 18.76 million tons of coal from foreign companies for the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 55 percent year-on-year, while the coal export out of China witnessed a 25.6 percent drop to 54.17 million tons for the same period, Pan said at yesterday's coal summit." Ok then, that will put further limits on what they can do by when, though I suppose the 3 gorges hydroelectric dams should be producing by then. HHmmm, looks quite big. "Construction on the Three Gorges Dam - the world's largest power project - has been completed up to an intermediate level. The reservoir has been partially filled, and power generation from four of the turbines has begun. The project should be completed by 2009, when a total of 26 generators will generate 18,200MW." http://www.power-technology.com/projects/gorges/
The question is what happens when two and a half billion people move out of a subsistence agrarian existence and try to have the lifestyle and luxury enjoyed by the West. While as noble a goal as any, it does make one wonder. The US alone, with its only moderate population, gets a lot of crap for the whole consumerism thing. I wonder what will happen when so many more people seize this supposed inevitability.
What's so bad about China and India overtaking the U.S.? It's not like they are going to start a nuclear war just because they think they can win. That's not how it works, seriously. If they have such strong economic ties with the U.S. and the E.U., there is no way they will ever want to start a war unless we make them think that they have to. They aren't insane warmongers, or they would have done it already. Also, on all of the military questions, I think that you guys have failed to grasp that this isn't going to be the good 'Ol days of the early part of the 20th century, with superpower nation-states bashing each other over the head for 6 years like what happened in world war two. It's just that the common theme for the past fifty years has been a "dual superpower" conflict scenario, which just doesn't apply anymore. When China becomes the technological equal of the west (which it probably will), it won't be invading Taiwan or nuking Los Angeles. It will probably end up policing East and Central Asia, and maybe some other trouble spots in the Eastern Hemishphere like the Middle East, much like the United States does. I don't think they will make themselves into our adversaries because there is no advantage in them doing so. We will probably be working with China in some instances in places like Central Asia, where water shortage will become a major source of conflict (this is going to be a common theme in the 21st century. Water shortage will undoubtedly occur in many oil-rich regions of the world, like the Middle East and Central Asia). In other instances we may find our special operations forces meeting China's and there might be a few clashes here and there because our goals and the Chinese's goals differ, but I doubt that anything like an all-out nuclear war will ever occur between the U.S. and China unless things get really desperate. And no, they will not remain as authoritarian as they are now, but they probably won't become the consumerist culture that we have either. They will most likely strike a balance between the two, and the government in China will always be the most important institution, because the people of China will never be as wealthy by virtue of population as the West, but it won't matter because the Chinese government will still be able to channel the aggregate wealth of the country as a whole into military technology and R&D. Personally I have my own scenario as to what will happen within the next 50-100 years, and it probably won't involve any major showdown between the U.S. and China, although there will still be many conflicts. I think that the small-war scenario is still the most likely outcome of any conflicts with China, and it will most likely take place in another country, neither the U.S. or China proper. I just think that all you guys are getting into a bunch over it when it probably won't be as big a deal as you are acting. You guys have to face that fact that the United States will not always be the 800 pound gorilla of the world, the United States will not always be the superpower that controls everything, protects everybody, and kicks ass all the time. Decline happens, and it's inevitable. Deal with it and move on. The China of 50 years from now will not be the same China as now, it's a given.
China policing East and Central Asia? OMG COMMUNISM IS SPREADING! EEEK! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Will we allow that? We always need an enemy and we always want to be #1. What makes China any better or worse than the U.S.S.R. in the 80's? Why will we allow China to police the world and not think of it as some major threat where they're trying to secretly take over the world as others think the U.S. does? - N
I don't know because its hard to say anything about a cummunist and non english speaking society. But at the moment china is enjoying the fruits of cheap labor and specialization.
china is beating america in every single catagory that counts. they have a bigger army more people more factories more jobs more apliences a growing economy,not a ressesion more food and farms and in 5 years,more cars. we have allready lost.
A big ass army not good for much more than a human wave assault. More people is in many ways a bad thing. Its a rapidly industrializing nation thats stripmining and otherwise fucking up their nation at a rate the US can only dream of. Most jobs are menial, monkey work jobs that crush you body and soul. Apliences? Its hard to have a recession when you start with nothing. They have already maxed out utilization of arable land and ecological problems are starting to take their toll. And, yay, more cars. Like we need a billion more cars to pump our remaining gas into.
Why has this tread turned into a who's got the biggest dick competition? It does look a very really possibility that China will outstrip the USA economically. Knowing this the conversation has moved to the USA having a better Army and more Nukes. I think that the Americans here are feeling very insecure that their status is in danger. Here in the UK we are a has-been nation as well and it really isn't that bad, we cope. The USA believes they are the elected leaders of the free world. I did not vote for them! The ego is popping, freedom from an unelected often unwanted, definitely untrustworthy government.
Well, you do know that armies and economics are inetricably linked? With a big army, you can force open markets for your own benefit. With a big economy, you can afford a big army to open said markets or keep everyone in line. But then you knew that already, being british. Stuff on Chinese cruise missiles: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_1_84/ai_n6112517 http://www.spacedaily.com/news/missiles-04zzh.html I reckon with the use of cruise missiles, they are only 20 years behind the USA.
Well, yes. Of course I feel insecure when the idea that America is going to be toppled is brought up. The concept is one of the most horrible things possible, at least from my perspective, and there is little I would not be willing to see done to see such a fate prevented. Its like telling a roman citizen that you would turn the great nation he loves from the center of the world to a second rate strip of land known mainly for its pasta and an imaginary plumber from some place called Brooklyn.
Think of it not so much as toppled, but as a case of naturally growing old and senescent. It happens to everyone, even the biggest empire the world has ever seen (so far) succumbed.
I have always been one to think that the ravages of age and the onset of human senility are one of the few true abominations on the planet; to be defeated or avoided at all costs. The first strip you of your dignity, then your every possession, and then your life. The thought of it claiming all I know and love, while I know it to be essentially certain to occur sooner or later, gives me the feeling of a ice-cold serpent grawing through my entrails. Its not something I want to give in to and definitely not while there is any chance at all of survival.
• The US has the worlds largest arable land. • The US has an excellent system of government and a tradition of democracy. • The US has the worlds largest fresh water supply. • The US uses English, the worlds language. • The US has pretty friendly relations with China and India – two huge emerging markets. • The US has military bases from South America to Europe Japan and Australia. • The US has a manageable population. • The US guarantees many freedoms that drive a civilizations forward. • The US has a highly educated populous. • The US has friendly neighbors. • The US has access to both the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. • China has little arable land. • China has a poor system of government and no tradition of democracy. (The Chinese character for human rights was actually an import from Japan). • China has a poor quality water and they continue to ruin what little they do have. • China will be the largest English speaking populous in the world, but the World will not switch from English to Mandarin (even Korea is removing Chinese Charaters from their language). • China has somewhat strained relations with India but they are improving. • China will never have the military capability of the US, which only has such because of the legacy of European colonialism and a victorious WWII. There will never be Chinese military basses in South America, Japan, Europe and Australia. • China is over populated. • China does not guarantee many of the liberties and freedoms that drive a country forward. • China is working toi educate their populace as a whole, however this is going to take time to reach the interior. • China has strained relations with many of it’s neighbors (The US trades more with Vietnam then does China, Japan and China …., the example of Korea removing the traditional Chinese character system from their language [incidentally Korea is also pushing to become the most proficient English speakers in Asia]). • China only has access to the Pacific ocean. So no, China will never replace the US. When the US slides into place it will be with the other nations. Not to be replaced but to be part of a world that really will have no single superpower.
People need to spend some time thinking about what is meant by "overtake the US." Will China eventually have a larger total GDP? Probably yes. Will China be able to repulse a US invasion? Sure, they've been able to do that for years. Will they match or replace America's role as overseer of Eastern Asia? Probably. But that's not what I think of when I read the question "will China overtake the US?" For example, it seems improbable that China will ever enjoy the same standard of living as in the US (i.e., while their total GDP may outstrip America's, the per-capita GDP probably will not). All of the likely scenarios wind up with China being a peer of the US (along with India, the EU and perhaps Russia or Japan). I can't think of any likely scenario that ends with China in the position of world hegemony that the US currently enjoys. Perhaps a better question would be "Do you think China will match the US one day?" The "overtake" question just seems to invite starry-eyed Chinese nationalists, paranoid American pessimists and jealous European know-it-alls. The fact is that China's not going to take over the world any time soon, nor is the US going to become a third-world country. The balance of power in East Asia may shift, but that's a long way from China being king of the world.
Can China actually feed, house and care for (medically) her own people? I've seen some pretty horrid-looking medical facilities in magazines and tv shows. And what of China's program to educate all of her people? Or is it just a select few? Baron Max
