Discussion in 'Politics' started by Saint, Nov 19, 2005.
Will it supersede US one day?
I think it will. Democracy is not the way forward for capitalism. China can now become rich and still keep the people down. The downfall of any economic system is people’s rights and expectation increase with wealth in a Democracy. China can still stop you reading web pages they don't like or kill you for any reason they see fit. We are looking at the first major Dictatorship, Capitalist Superpower. This will change the world and who can stop them? No one!
Possibly, but not forever and certainly not the way they are now. You can do a lot when you have a billion slaves taught from birth to do whatever you say, but there are risks and limitations involved too.
I read today article by Howard W. French, (translated into Portuguese) that must have been in the New York Times a few days ago, so my translation back of parts into English is not exact and to save typing, I am also condensing the facts and ideas:
1) 58 year old Princeton U. prof (Andrew Yao), world leader in computer sciences, & Yale genetist Xu Tian, and nuclear physicist Yan Fujia are among the dozens highest level professors that China has already bought home to well equipped new labs in a "billions of dollars" plan to make 30 mainland universities "superior to Harvard." Money is no objective /problem thanks to the great trade surplus. Because of the low general wage levels etc the cost of the new buildings is less than US $50/ square foot.
2) Already each year China graduates in engineering alone: 442,000 new engineers, plus 48,000 with masters degrees, plus 8,000 Ph.D.s Since 1998, when Jiang Zemin began to transform higher education in China, it has been transformed. In 2004 alone, US$10.4 billion was spent on improving the graduate schools and "buying professors" from the world's best universities. Ex MIT's mathematician, Tian Gang is heading up a new advance math research center that will soon exceed western-trained "brain power" at Princeton’s Center for Advanced Studies, where Einstein et al worked.
Living outside of US, in a city with great news papers (They ought to be as they copy from all the world's best and have staff on site around the world.) one is not as "thought controlled" as in the US. Thus three year ago I became aware that western world has already lost engineering leadership to Asia and is in the process of losing scientific leadership during this generation as well. That is why I wrote Dark Visitor - more details soon at web site under my name. (Currently site is down but in a few days should be back up.)
Democracy never worked for anyone. It ends up as socialist authoritarism or out right totalitarianism. China will prosper if shifts to relatively free markets, the upholding of property rights and the rule of law. If not, it stagnates or fragments.
China isn't as powerful as many seems to believe. They will not, as long as they are communists, be able to conquer the USA.
You really haven't learned much from history, have you, Alex?
The now-defunct U.S.S.R. had all the advantages that you attribute to China and they ultimately couldn't keep it working. China won't disintegrate like they did but they cannot totally succeed in their final ambitions without some serious change.
Just what is it that makes you think that China can prevail when the U.S.S.R. could not? Just what do you see as being different between them?
China can prevail because the U.S. is actively helping them in every way.
The China hype is overblown. Yes, they'll get more powerful than they are now, but they'll never match the US. Why? The US has 300 Million people, a giant amount of natural resources and room, and is surrounded by giant oceans and docile neighbors. China has 1.3 Billion mouths to feed, has pretty much maxed out their environment, and is surrounded by formidable, nuclear-armed neighbors. The best case China can hope for would be hegemonic status in East Asia. In comparison, it's hard to imagine a realistic scenario where the US ends up with anything less than hegemony over essentially the entire Western Hemisphere. And I'd say that the latter position is the more comfortable one to be in...
Light, the answer to your question is simple. The world is now a Global market the U.S.S.R had to get it right from the inside first. China does not need the internal market to succeed. They only need the external market and we live in a much more greedy world, that begs for the cheap import.
Lets remember that history is as it says on the label "history" and today’s world is a very different place.
Sorry, but that's incorrect. The world is little different today than it was then. The global market was going very strong at that time too. For a couple of examples, during that same time period the U.S. was a major exporter of grain (mostly wheat) to the U.S.S.R. OPEC was already in place and exporting oil all over the world, Argentina was already a major exporter of beef. Japan was selling small cars worldwide. There are many more examples. I gather that you weren't even around during that time and are simply going by what you think it was like.
Talking about News sources, I saw a documentary on the Discovery Times about foreign treatment of Chinese workers, the Chinese workers are getting screwed (paid less than the Chinese! Minimum wage) and their government officials are willing to except bribes to maintain that. The report was in one factory so its not really a good way to make statistic analysis but going with what I know about human beings, the Chinese are selling their own workers out. Due to the one child policy they probably have an increasing older population and few replacements not to mention a bad boy to girl ratio. There breeding more diseases with their crowding and substandard living conditions too. I think China will fail.
China is moving it's country forward economically and increasing it's military strength and will someday be on top. What's to stop them? The U.S.? Forget it. The U.S. can't even stop terrorists in Iraq. What makes you think they can stop China when China wants to make it's move on Taiwan or some other country. As long as you have a president and vice president like Bush & Cheney leading the U.S. into a hole, then of course you're not going anywhere.
China is indeed capable of being at the top of the US and every other nation, it just has to decide when and do it, it won't be easy but they will be at the top after the fight. This is clearly know because of its military, its allies, its influences, and its people around the globe ready to do his job and take the control. So to China be the hyperpower is matter of them to make that choice, when they think is the time it just would happen, because even at this right moment their power is spreading in all areas and levels all over the globe and gaining control in a stealthy way.
Light, exports have been going on since the first ships set sail. Sure there was a Global economy in the USSR era but it is nothing like today. If we look far enough back the Dodo was properly exported. But what is more important here, is that China is the next stage, along with India to a lesser degree. Industry is moving to China because it is cheap and nothing will stop that. Capitalism has no loyalty to a country or its people only to money and as soon as somewhere cheaper is viable then that is where the money will flow. But the real power that China has is that it will stay cheap, that’s the danger.
What natural resources does China have? In my view, that's the key for a nation to progress and thrive. As far as I'm aware, China has few natural resources other than a huge quantity of manpower, which can't do much without natural resources.
And if that's true, then the only way China can progress much at all, is to buy or take by force the needed resources from some other nation. If she buys those resources, then she's at the mercy of the seller. If she begins such a conquest, she'll have to answer to all of the other nations on Earth!
So, no, I don't think China will ever become the next super-power.
China's military hardware is woefully lacking. I don't even think they have a sinlgr aircraft carrier.
Sure, they may have a billion people, but they're so close together, carpet bombing would do wonders for population control.
China's not yet a threat.
The U.S.S.R. tried to switch to capitalism overnight. It was too drastic of a move. China started out much slower and only picked up the pace once they had a better understanding of the system.
Well there's a lot in SE Russia which is why the Chinese are trying to overpopulate and take over resource rich areas in that region like the way Israel tries to take over Palestine and M.E. land with its colonists and Mexico with it's illegal immigrants to the U.S.
What, like the U.S. did trying to secure more oil in the M.E.? Who'd we have to answer to? Who will China have to answer to? Are you going to be like Hans Blix and write a very angry letter to Kim Jong Ill telling him how angry the United Nations are with him? If so, oh no!
Sure, I understand all that - I'm here now and I was here during the height of Russia. But the point is that China has little to offer in terms of exports. About all it has is over-population and it's still very backwards - very much a third-world country. It's huge population will never be as productive as the West because it has the same failings the Russians had. If you're alive you are assigned a job wheather it fits your talents and desires or not. That doesn't make for a productive workforce and quality suffers tremendously.
IF China wants to become a true super-power it will have to make some drastic changes in the way it treats it's people. Take a look at the same process hapening in North Korea. Just how successful have they been? There's a difference, of course, in that they are kept totally isolated form the rest of the world, but is China much better in that respect?
Don't under estimate China's military power. They have missiles and bombers capable of hitting the U.S. and just about anybody else. If you think China hasn't got what it takes to be a superpower, you better think again. China is a superpower!
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