Bill Gates Predictions

Discussion in 'Intelligence & Machines' started by kmguru, Mar 13, 2008.

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  1. kmguru Staff Member

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    Gates: Next Decade to Bring Huge Software Advances
    Changes in software and computing over the next 10 years will affect all facets of life, Microsoft chairman says.

    PC World
    Thursday, March 13, 2008; 1:19 PM



    The coming decade will bring even more advances in software and computing than the last 10 years, bringing new ways to watch television, to use telephones and to input information into computers, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates predicted Thursday.

    Changes in software and computing over the next 10 years will be "very substantial" and will permeate all facets of life, Gates told a crowd of about 1,100 people during a Northern Virginia Technology Council breakfast in Washington, D.C. Computers and software have changed how people take photographs and purchase music, but other industries will be affected just as much in coming years, he said.

    "There are great realms of activity that digital approach has not yet touched on," Gates said.

    Among Gates' predictions for the coming decade:

    "In a broad sense, we can say that information workers ... are not yet empowered to collaborate in the way that they should," Gates said. "I think the opportunity is stronger than it's ever been."

    Gates said he's "very optimistic" about the future of the tech industry, even with the current questions about the U.S. economy. "I don't think anything will stop the rapid advances," he said.

    Gates also repeated his concerns about the number of H-1B and other immigrant worker visas available to U.S. companies. He testified before the U.S. Congress on the issue Wednesday.

    more at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/13/AR2008031302213_pf.html

    Did he say anything new or the same old astrology forecast?
     
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  3. francois Schwat? Registered Senior Member

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    He basically said that big things are going to happen with technology. He didn't say what is going to happen. I think most people know that big things are going to happen with technology in the years to come, but don't know to what extent.

    Nevertheless, I agree with him. We're headed for some big changes, especially as AI and computer power continue to improve. Soon everything in our environment will be interactive. We will no longer communicate with our computers with keyboards and mice. We'll speak to our computers, gesture to them, we'll wear devices so they can interpret our brainwaves (already beginning to happen).

    I think what Bill Gates is predicted here about email in 1997 can be applied about virtual reality. Within 10 years the majority of all adults will be using virtual reality and living a form of that virtual reality lifestyle. It's going to change a lot of things.
     
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  5. kmguru Staff Member

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    We are always headed for some big changes....

    What no one notices is that from Windows 2000 to XP to Vista, there is no leap forward from one to the other...they are incremental....no paradigm shift here...

    Microsoft spends over $5 Billion in research every year. Have you noticed any major enhancement from Office 2000 to present incarnation that you use everyday?

    Microsoft has been monkeying around with Bayesian Network for the last 4 years....still no software we can use....

    So, it will be a long time before you see all those great stuff....
     
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  7. alexb123 The Amish web page is fast! Valued Senior Member

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    Umm I wonder what the future holds.

    I suppose solid state drives are a def. Also I think the wii will shape the future of computers, the next xbob and playstation will have to be inventive and this will influence PC's. In fact I think the wii has shown that an original idea can wide the floor with some of the biggest companys on earth.
     
  8. alexb123 The Amish web page is fast! Valued Senior Member

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    Thinking about this, will much change? I remember 20 years ago when my dad brought me my first computer the Commodore 64 he was thinking of holding back until speak recognition computer come out because they were meant to be just around the corner. Although there have been attempts voice rec is still not even mainstream after all this time. So maybe we don't move forward as fast as we think.
     
  9. kmguru Staff Member

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    Here is my prediction:

    If Multi-core design progresses the way it is, in 12 to 15 years, you will have 64 core systems with parallel computing software and high powered GPUs. The hardware will progress well.

    The software is another matter. Do not expect anything from Microsoft anymore than any software from IBM. People thought the mainframe maker with all that patents would be leading in advanced software. Not happening.

    Someone from a Post Doctoral group will come up with innovative database and software...that will be the next generation.

    If all goes well, I have a design in mind, that you will read about it in 5 to 8 years.....
     
  10. Syzygys As a mother, I am telling you Valued Senior Member

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    OK, what big changes occured in the LAST 10 years? Things got smaller and cheaper, otherwise nothing big. Just like it was mentioned, between Windows 2000 and Vista, nothing terrible different...
    OK, so we have a phone/camera/mp3player in one, that is just making things smaller, again, nothing new. We still use the same instant messengers and emails like we did before.
     
  11. kmguru Staff Member

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    I did a Dashboard system for a refinery in 1993. In the last few years, they are putting Dashboards in the business systems and saying it is a paradigm shift.

    IBM ran multiple programs in the mainframe system. They optimized and charged for the CPU time for specific programs. Now, VMWare doing the same thing in intel based systems. ...and calling this the new invention....

    There is too much hype...
     
  12. scifitm Registered Member

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    I think a big part of why software does not synch up with the advancement of hardware is the simple fact that people already have a hard time learning programs that have hardly changed since I learned them 10 years ago. In fact my Freshman year in college I was required to take Computers in Modern Society, the first class was on how to use a mouse and what a single and double click were... seriously I'm not joking - I quit going to class and passed the final over Excel, Word, etc. with flying colors - but there were some adults in that class that were mistified about the programs and needed tutoring with the teacher. I don't think that software is incapable of progressing at the rate of hardware, it just that most people lack the understanding to utilize it if it did - for example my car has a programable chip into the ECU, I can alter all my settings for my car on my laptop. This is a highly technical tool that could blow my engine to shreds if I did something wrong... If the common person had that easily accessible power within windows (to exceed some common parameter and ruin the system) Microsoft would be getting even more class action lawsuits from people who clicked the wrong button, and who could really care less about the power to utilize their machines fully. There is a paradigm shift in culture happening now, there are those of us that see Technology from the inside, Unix filled dreams of harvesting all the computing power from our systems - and those who see it from the outside and use their 486's to play online poker over their dial-up internet connections.
     
  13. kmguru Staff Member

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    Very well said....

    Funny stuff happens to me all the time...when I am at the airport or otherwise in a nontechnical group talking stuff...these older adults talk about their kid's computer ability as if their kids are super programmers and hackers. That is because, these are people who play simple games and read New York Times, barely get into emails etc....

    We work with a large number of embassy personnel from other countries in USA. Most of the officials let their secretaries write and retrive emails for them. They do not know what an attachment is....one senior person had the 50 slide powerpoint printed out to read such that they ran out of ink.....
     
  14. cosmictraveler Be kind to yourself always. Valued Senior Member

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    Did they know how to change the ink cartridge? :shrug:

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    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  15. francois Schwat? Registered Senior Member

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    Perhaps you're right. But big things in software are coming around. Even though we currently have what we would call incredibly fast hardware (we always have), it is still a limiting factor to what kind of software and applications that can be made viable. As our computers get quicker, we'll be able to do more with them. Can you imagine the kinds of crap we would be able to do with software capable of emulating the abilities of, say, a cat's brain or a human's brain? Scientists have already been successful in modeling parts of the human brain and emulating them in computer systems. Soon, scientists will be able to emulate the entire brain, especially as brain scanning techniques continue to improve.

    Not going to give us a preview?

    Nothing big? Youtube is nothing big? Facebook is nothing big? These are multi billion dollar companies which have changed how hundreds of millions of people communicate and socialize. They've popped out of apparently nowhere. And you'd say that's nothing big?

    What will you say when 70% of the population is using virtual reality as a way to do their jobs, to socialize and do business? Nothing big?
     
  16. mikenostic Stop pretending you're smart! Registered Senior Member

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    Instead of him making huge vague predictions about the future of technology, maybe he should have his people build a stable, reliable operating system instead. *cough cough...Millenium Edition...Vista...cough cough*
     
  17. kmguru Staff Member

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    Are you kidding? They usually hire American help in their embassies, so I think, the secretary or the technician has to do that.
     
  18. kmguru Staff Member

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    Sure. It will have several technologies. One is based on Jeff Hawkins idea (read his book "On Intelligence") modified to fit the other program based on a rules engine with goals and cases in them. I found a database that is a small footprint and highly efficient such that if you add an extra telephone number for one friend, it does not add an extra field to all the names. I am not sure if XML can do that....we have to check.

    The main idea is to run it on a PDA that can communicate with other PDAs (with permission) and do a lot of background processing. It will remember birthdays, favorite colors, restaurants, food, etc. Tell you where your kids are...

    I would like to program it such that when Wal-Mart adds RFID to every item, the PDA can total what is in your basket, suggest items, warn you about allergies and bell peppers in the food etc., need some embedded scanners/sensors to do stuff...
    etc...etc...
     
  19. orcot Valued Senior Member

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    I wonder when they finally bring up a computer that when you put it on, it go's on in stead of having to wait 2-3 minutes
     
  20. kmguru Staff Member

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    Very soon. They will be doing without harddrives, so all you have to do is hibernate...and it will be fast.
     
  21. firdroirich A friend of The Friends Registered Senior Member

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    I like the RFID idea.....while checking freepatentsonline.com
     
  22. Syzygys As a mother, I am telling you Valued Senior Member

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    What made Youtube possible? Faster internet and bigger servers/database. But nothing really new than what we haven't had 10 years earlier.

    Changes in television? Sure we can hang the flat TV set on the wall, it might be in 3 D but it still the crappy old programs, it won't make programs better.

    We already have viewer based programing, video blogging, but again, what so special about it? Servers can hold more and more data, that is it...
     
  23. Search & Destroy Take one bite at a time Moderator

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    Please take time to look at the progress cognitive science is making. Fundamental paradigm shifts are happening, tools are being invented etc. We are at the golden gates in understanding our minds - the link between cog sci and technology will bring about the greatest change.

    Within the next 20 years I predict a bionic eyeball that performs like a hawk will be invented. Another can be equipped with camera and wireless to record someone's entire life.

    More importantly we are going to enter a shift away from drugs and into electric stimulation. We have already made a person depressed to the point of suicide with click of a switch. In theory you could invoke any emotion, and stimulate any part of the brain in the way you wish.

    Humans take control of their environment. Soon they take control of their control. Its loopy statements like that indicate a big change.
     
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