Back to basics for the rest of us

Discussion in 'General Science & Technology' started by Doceth, Oct 2, 2015.

  1. Doceth Registered Member

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    OK I want to be careful how I open this. I respect that there are many extremely knowledgeable people on this site. I am here because I love science. I was originally in aerospace engineering before I decided to be a physician. But now I want to get back to hard facts; proven information. Side note: Sadly much of modern medicine is not. Regardless I am Particularly interested in the areass of mathematics and physics. And here's my issue. As I have read through various threads I see many friendly supportive comments however I also see many debates that occur. People have all kinds of fancy terms to explain why somebody with an opposing view is wrong. I hear the terms science, pseudoscience, theory, idea, Magic etc. clearly many of you are real scientists of which I am far from obviously. But what I am after is how to find resources with the simple facts. In other words there are so many branch points in these areas being debated and studied but there hasn't really been proof...yet. I just want what has been proven. I think many average people in the population hear various news clips and ideas and just assume everything is fact. This is why I am reaching out to you. I want to better understand what has been clearly proven. For example if I understand this correctly the universe is expanding in an accelerating manner. Maybe that has been proven. But from what I understand dark matter has not been proven. I'm not shooting down the dark matter theory I'm just saying it has not been proven. Yet high school students or people I talk to Who have heard about this in the news talk about it as fact. I just want facts. Am I asking too much?
     
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  3. Daecon Kiwi fruit Valued Senior Member

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    Science isn't about proving things, it's about disproving them.

    The strongest ideas in science are the ones that haven't been disproven yet.

    Science makes an observation about the world, and comes up with ideas to explain those observed facts. If those ideas aren't proven to be false, such an idea may even become a scientific theory.
     
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  5. Doceth Registered Member

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    So nothing has ever been proven?
     
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  7. brucep Valued Senior Member

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    Being a physician means you know how to research the scientific literature. If you're not familiar with public science forums it is pretty ridiculous but fun. The literature never lies.
     
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  8. Doceth Registered Member

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    Honestly the literature can make my head spin. At least in medicine a typical research article will have a conclusion like "our research "suggests" or "may indicate"... All that tells me is its 50/50 whether the conclusion is correct. not to mention pharmaceutical companies fund projects and have the results presented to us as FACT. I think I'm going to start by stepping back and pondering the scientific method.
     
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  9. Doceth Registered Member

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    Here is an interesting statement I just found: "In general, science answers questions like "how," "when," "where", but never "why" in the ultimate sense." With that in mind I need to ponder how I will approach this. Thanks for your input.
     
  10. brucep Valued Senior Member

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    Read the literature. You want to learn about modern physics read the literature when in doubt. Cranks never do this. Some of what you said raise my crank detector several notches. Good luck.
     
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  11. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    But that cautious approach to claims is exactly what science is about. It's funny how many of us can study science to a high level with little or no thought about what science is. The essence of science is that it makes predictive models of the physical world, based on objective (=reproducible) observation. There is no claim to ultimate reality, or to "proof" of anything. All models in science are provisional and some are used in the full knowledge that they are incomplete or defective. A famous example is Newtonian mechanics, which breaks down in the quantum realm and under relativistic conditions but is invaluable in our daily lives. Another might be the "arrow-pushing" we do in the reaction mechanisms of organic chemistry: a physical chemist will tell you there is no justification for thinking electrons physically move along the arrows as drawn, but the method works for predicting how reactions take place, so we use it. I am sure medicine may have its own examples.

    As Daecon says, a model can be disproved, or shown to be incomplete or faulty, by reproducible observations that do not fit the predictions made by the model. But further observations that do fit the model do not prove it - they merely serve to corroborate it. This is because it is always possible, in principle, that some new observation may one day be made that does not fit. In other words, no model is final: science is always open to new discovery and improvement of its models. The models of science are inherently provisional.

    Where we get disputes about "pseudoscience" etc., on forums like this one, is when we get contributors who fail to advance theories that are supported by reproducible observation. The "theory" may be just an idea or a notion, with no experimental evidence for it, for instance. Or it may rely on observations that are not reproducible and hence have a subjective element that makes the observation suspect. Claims of alien spacecraft or ghosts fall into this category.

    It is remarkable how many people do not grasp the idea of the provisional predictive models backed by objective observation.

    I was very lucky in having a chemistry teacher at school who would never tell you when you got an explanation "right". He would always say: "Yes, this is one model." He was quite good at exposing us to alternative models in chemistry and conveying their strengths and weaknesses. Perhaps this comes more easily in a subject such as chemistry, with its messy complexity, than physics, where complete analytical solutions to problems are more often possible.
     
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  12. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    You may not be reading deeply enough, then. Or, maybe you don't have a really good grasp of statistics.

    In general, you'll find that most scientific articles - not just medical ones - are cautious about drawing any conclusions that go beyond what the evidence supports. Scientists always have to be aware of all the things that might have gone wrong in their experiments.

    The thing about science (and medical research as a subcategory) is that results are always presented with statistical estimates of the amount of probable error. Conclusions from data are very rarely 50-50. Scientists will often talk about confidence limits and likelihoods and error bars when presenting their results.

    As an example, suppose a drug company is testing to see whether a new drug is effective at treating disease X. What they do is give half of the test group the drug and the other half a placebo (like a sugar pill that does nothing special but which looks identical to the pill being tested). They set things up so that neither the patients nor the researchers themselves know (during the treatment) which pill they are getting. At the end of the trial, they see which patients got better, which got worse and which had no change. Then, as the last step they go back to the records to find out which patients got the drug and which did not. The statistical hypothesis to be tested is then "Drug Y is better than placebo at producing positive patient outcomes". The default (or null) hypothesis is that drug Y is no better than a sugar pill. The researchers then look at the numbers of patients that improved (or declined) on the drug and compare the numbers in the placebo group. Using various established statistical tests, they end up expressing a certain level of statistical confidence that the drug works, or that it is not useful, or that it is actually harmful. And that degree of confidence is quantified. It isn't just a guess - it's based on the hard data.

    When they write up the results, they are still likely to say "Our research suggests that drug Y is effective at treating disease X" - even when they have a good statistical result. That's because no trial can ever be certain. The doctors have treated only a limited number of patients. They can't guarantee that if they treated tens of thousands that the results would be the same, or even if they treated the same number of patients again that they would get the same results. The best they can say is that they have a certain confidence level, based on the statistics, that their results are repeatable.
     
  13. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
  14. Doceth Registered Member

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    Not questioning the method. Questioning the integrity of some utilizing it. Definitely an issue in medicine. I know it's an issue as well as some other fields. Don't be naïve.
     
  15. Doceth Registered Member

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    Brucep your crank detector is misfiring. In medicine if there is one thing we are learning it is that reading the literature does not suffice. There are some serious integrity issues in terms of how data is reported and interpreted. Not to mention hidden agendas. The next time somebody tells you Lipitor lowers your risk of a cardiac event by 33% be sure to read the literature so you can see deceptive conclusions. Three people in the control group had a heart attack two people in the lipitor group did not. What they don't clearly tell you is that 97 people in both groups did not have a heart attack. So your risk reduction is not 33% it's 1%.

    Now I have to move on. I have people to try and help. I'm sure you will do the same.
     
  16. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    Integrity of whom?

    You can't stop me!

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  17. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, this is because medicine is an applied science with a lot of money involved and competition between businesses. So sure, as with anything scientific with commercial implications, one has to be careful with some of the claims and read around a bit. Humans are humans, after all and science is not a pure religion divorced from the world.
     
  18. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    And if you would like to be supremely technical: There are no proofs in any field other than mathematics.

    (I don't know if the above statement would be a start for a rather strange argument.)
     
  19. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Well......yes and no...... I suppose there are also branches of logic outside maths where the concept of proof would apply. Also, though in a rather looser sense, proof is a feature of the criminal law.
     
  20. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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  21. sideshowbob Sorry, wrong number. Valued Senior Member

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    Proof can also be used in the sense of "tested" - e.g. 80-proof liquor has been tested to contain 40% alcohol.
     
  22. Dr_Toad It's green! Valued Senior Member

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    Not in my experience. They tend to be technicians, mostly. A damned good diagnostician is hard to find, but decent techs are all over the place.
     
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  23. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes there's a danger that both you and I start talking out of our respective arses here

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    . I think logic lends itself to symbols that can be thought of as a branch of maths, but I really know practically nothing about this.
     

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