It seems to me that these sanctions are a tad more extreme and having a significant impact on Iran. The Shah was kicked out mainly because he was a poor micro-manager (I think the lack of onions in the shops being the LAST straw), I can see the lower and middle class of Tehran turning against the current powers if they think this foolish attempt to build nuclear weapons again causes them to do without. Japan against the US comes to mind. But Iran does not have the military might Japan did back in 1941 and so who would Iran attack? Clearly starting a war against the US is not something that Iran reallys want to do.
Nah, that's very unlikely. The powers-that-be will simply cast the hardships as foreign oppression and position themselves as the champions of resistance to such. This being exactly the game they've played since the 1980's, after all, and I see little reason it wouldn't work this time. There's also the fact that Iran just successfully crushed an uprising, and so has both a credible system of authoritarian repression and a somewhat dispirited and scattered opposition. Yeah that's probably the best example. Although, that was a context in which oil sanctions by a few Western powers meant that Japan couldn't access fuel to run its economy, and so was more like a hostile blockade, than the sort of sanctions programs we see in the current day. Like Japan's position in East Asia in the late 1930's/early 1940's, Iran is qualitatively more powerful than any of its neighbors. One of the things that keeps the whole "Shiite Crescent" model of Iranian regional supremacy alive in the minds of various players is that it is basically credible: those nearby Shiite populations inhabit states with pathetic military capabilities, and are sitting on top of strategic oil deposits. Of course, unlike WWII, any moves against such states would immediately trigger a military confrontation against the US, which Iran can ill afford, but the potential for militaristic and ideological expansionism is present in the regional geopolitical dynamics (i.e., excluding global influences like the USA). Or even, getting into such a war even if they didn't start it. We can debate what the consequences might be for the USA and everyone else, but it's pretty much guaranteed to be a losing proposition for the powers that be in Tehran.
I think the internet is an information source that wasn't available before and could help organize the resistance like it wasn't possible to do before. Yes, there is that. The Shah really didn't have nearly the level of ideological support of the police/military that the current rulers appear to.
Too late, they already have, that much is certain. The question is do we trust that they are telling the truth that they have given it up? I think it would be foolish to assume so. But maybe they are just looking to raise oil prices by their saber rattling.
It would be a crime to bomb someone just for sabre rattling, don't you think? We're talking about mostly dual-purpose nuclear technology, it's not like we're dealing with 300 000 Iranian troops perched on the Iraq border in preparation for an imminent invasion.
Their rattling can turn into a real concern very quickly. They know we don't want to unify Iranians against us, we want to encourage internal opposition to the regime. They also know the US doesn't want to get into another war. But they also want to be the dominant force in the region. They are playing a very dangerous game and they know it. They could end it easily and you have to wonder why they don't.
Iran, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey. Yea. Then America, Russia, UK, France, Italy, Germany, Israel, Greece. WW3 will be won decisively if America and Russia come together and say enough is enough, but that needs to happen NOW!
ah yes because the wise jew knows better than all the spooks in the world. there is no point to Iran seeking nukes. any person being honest with themselves will acknowledge this. but this saber rattling you so love will only push them to actually make nukes.
because ISrael keeps threatening to attack them. if they are giong to be threatened for doing whether they are or aren't they might as well go ahead and do it.
the only people who think it is certain is you, other jewish people and Israel. most other people have succembed to the facts that Iran is not pursuing nukes
and they like you and spider are ignoring intelligence operatives who all are saying no they aren't. and I'm sorry I'm going to trust the spooks rather than neocon warmongerer and someone who excuses all Israeli attempts to start off WW3
In a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, the United States Intelligence Community assessed that Iran had ended "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work" in 2003.[wikipedia] --- All I said was that we know Iran had a nuclear program. I think this is proof they want one. --- The U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said Iran could build a nuke by next year. --- Two years ago, American intelligence agencies published a detailed report concluding that Tehran halted its efforts to design a nuclear weapon in 2003. But in recent months, Britain has joined France, Germany and Israel in disputing that conclusion, saying the work has been resumed. A senior American official said last week that the United States was now re-evaluating its 2007 conclusions. Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb --- TOM DONILON [Obama's national security adviser]: The facts are undeniable. Despite decades of Iranian denial and deceit and notwithstanding the setbacks I've described, it should be clear for all the world to see that under the guise of a purely nuclear secure - civil nuclear program, the government of Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapons capability
And yet you haven't pointed to any of these actual spooks. And yet I've posted multiple independent references that have nothing to do with Israel or the US that say they are: France insisted yesterday that Iran is developing nuclear bombs and urged Europe to follow the US lead by slapping an embargo on its oil exports and freezing its central bank assets by next month.
And yet in the midst of all this.... http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/06/world/meast/iran-us-navy-rescue/?hpt=hp_c2
We don't have the money for another fracking war. We need to leave Iran alone and deal with our own problems.
