"Since his first estimates failed to come to pass, I suspect a new slew of apocalypses real soon now." ~billvon I have only been trying to time the one inevitable apocalypse that we have been approaching since civilization began. The human species has far overshot it's resource base and collapse is the only possible outcome. Since collapse is inevitable, the only question has been the timing. Timing collapse is a very difficult thing to do. I think my timing guesses haven't been too far off, especially as of now, because I have some very important new information for everyone: I can now predict the date of the onset of collapse with near absolute certainty: June of 2014. In other words, I am no longer attempting to predict the future. I am now stating that the collapse of industrial civilization has already begun! And I can prove it. I will get to the detailed physics proof of collapse, but first we need to cover some conceptual ground. To get the ball rolling, I made a simple graph. I call this graph the Futilitist Collapse Challenge: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! In the oil price graph above, the black line represents the rising cost of oil production, and the green line represents the falling affordability of oil for consumers. In a reasonably functioning economy, the green line will be above the black line, and oil will trade in between the two lines. In june of 2014, the black line crossed the green line and the price of oil crashed. The green line is now no longer on top of the black line, as it is supposed to be. We have entered a new economic paradigm, in which consumers can no longer afford high priced oil, and producers cannot make a profit on low priced oil. Catch-22. The challenge (game?) is to come up with some sort of realistic scenario whereby the green line resumes it’s former healthy position above the black line, and oil once again trades in between them. I don’t think it can be done. If a workable solution cannot be arrived at, I submit that there is no possible way to avoid the collapse that has already begun. C’mon, folks, take the Futilitist challenge. Try to save the world, and prove me wrong at the same time. I dare you. ---FutilitistPlease Register or Log in to view the hidden image!