Apocalypse Soon?

Discussion in 'General Science & Technology' started by Futilitist, Jan 1, 2013.

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  1. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Currency devaluation rose spectacularly in the early 1970s. I wonder why? Could it be because US peak oil was in 1970?

    ---Futilitist

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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Several reasons. More expensive energy will, in general, reduce the standard of living. Before the population peaks around the end of the 21st century, there will be shortages that mean that not everyone can have the same amount of stuff they do now. (Rare earths, plastics etc.) But the biggest reason is just that there are boom/bust cycles in every town, city, state and country in the world. The richest city today will not be the richest city in 100 years; that title will move on, as it always has.

    That's about right.

    No, most people will eat different foods. If we can only grow 30% of our current crop, for example, and we dedicated all of that to feeding people we'd have no problems keeping everyone alive. Most of that output currently goes to cattle feed, and corn fed cattle are an unnecessary luxury. You might have to eat cornmeal bread instead of your Big Mac.

    Don't mean to disillusion you, but right now there are people dangerous to you and your family - and there always have been. Compared to the 1600's, for example, where large tribes of natives wanted you and your family dead - and there was very little organized law - you're going to be in better shape overall.

    Because oil is cheap. Once oil becomes expensive, they will switch to alternatives. That is already happening.

    Because oil (and coal) is cheaper. Nuclear is almost cheaper.

    It is extremely simple, just expensive - which is why we haven't done it in a big way yet.

    As did every single alternative (INCLUDING oil) until the need was sufficient to drive its deployment.

    Sure could! And a meteor could hit the planet and crack it in half.

    Let's see what happens then:

    -Oil prices rise astronomically due to scarcity.
    -Every single expensive and impractical method for recovering oil becomes practical.
    -Every single oil company makes billions selling the now-scarce oil at astronomical prices.
    -Supply goes up, price comes down.

    I wasn't saying it was a good thing. I am saying that the author's assumptions were incorrect - which is what you were asking about.

    They've been rebalancing for thousands of years; nothing new here.

    Because they are cheap and easy to use. Why spend more money/effort than you need to?

    My rooftop and car disproves your statement. It is demonstrably possible, if we choose to do it. What do you think might induce someone to choose it?

    Cool!
     
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  5. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Don't worry, be happy.:bugeye:

    I'm glad you aren't in charge.

    ---Futilitist

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  7. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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  8. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    No, the US government starting printing vast amounts of money to pay for the Vietnam War...so much so that other nations like France started demanding US gold instead of dollars to settle trade accounts.

    Money supply goes up...buying power of the dollar goes down....price of oil in dollars goes into orbit.
     
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Don't worry, people like me are. Which is why we're developing new sources of energy and more efficient ways to use the sources we have. It's something of a legacy to leave our children.

    If anything I'm glad I don't see myself as helpless and hopeless, just waiting for the end. But whatever floats your boat.
     
  10. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    This is how the collapse of excess can actually function as an asset to human civilization....fewer donuts in circulation adds up to lighter human bodies which thus need fewer calories to move about from point A to point B!

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    The advantage of raising animals has always been that animals convert inedible biomass into wonderfully nutritious human foods.

    Goats for example, will clear out huge amounts of underbrush and tree buds and convert them into lovely feta cheese...with a little help from the bipeds.

    If you set chickens loose in your backyard they will eat every insect in sight and turn them into eggs for breakfast.

    This is why chickens have such a quick pecking action...to grab the bugs before they can run or fly away.
     
  11. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Practicing Futilitisim

    I don't just sit around hopelessly waiting for the end. I practice a philosophy called Futilitism, hence the name Futilitist. Futilitism teaches that there is practical utility to be found even in utter futility. The fact that the world will come to an end very soon means that every moment is precious.

    If anything, I am glad to be aware of my world as it truly is, rather than how I might wish it might be. I am glad that I understand what it really means to be alive in the moment. I think it is better than wasting time with false hopes that will end in sorrow. But whatever floats your boat.

    ---Futilitist

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  12. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Jesus for President

    So basically we will avoid all catastrophe by trimming the fat and waste?

    I guess all we have to do is instantly eliminate all human greed in the world and we will be just fine.

    Is that the platform your mythical "different breed of politician" will run on?:bugeye:

    ---Futilitist

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  13. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    So anything you do is futile, and all you can do is prepare for the end. Like I said, I am glad I am not that way. I am even more grateful that people like Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, Tesla, Fleischmann and Pons etc. were not that way.
     
  14. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Cold Confusion

    You seem frightened by the word futile. It is just a word. You really have nothing to fear.

    I just got through telling you that I am not preparing for the end, I am living in the moment. You can be forgiven for not understanding the concept, but please stop mischaracterizing me.

    Also, Fleischmann and Pons in the same group as Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, and Tesla? Seriously? Do you think that cold fusion will save us? :bugeye:

    ---Futilitist

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  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    That's, like, reverse psychology, right? I'm not afraid of the Apocalypse because I don't think there will be one. I'm not afraid of futility because I don't believe that what we are doing is futile.

    Fair enough. So you're not preparing for the end, you are just living as if the world is about to end. Just don't end up like these guys:

    ==============
    No Job, No Belongings, No Rapture? How to Rebuild Your Financial LIfe
    By Dawn Kawamoto
    Posted 6:30AM 05/23/11

    Folks who turned to the sky Saturday evening looking for Harold Camping's Rapture prediction to come true were prepared to travel light. A number of them had no jobs and no belongings: They were ready to be swept up into Heaven. Trouble is, Camping's prediction was a bust, and his loyal followers who gave up everything were left with more than spiritual anguish -- they were left with no financial footing.

    Maureen Demers, a registered investment adviser in Massachusetts, is well aware of the impact such choices can have. Her brother was one of Camping's die-hard followers. In an email interview on Friday, Demers had this to say about her brother's situation:

    My brother has given away everything he owns and spent the past 4 months travelling the world including Indonesia, New Zealand, and Australia "spreading the word." I have tried to talk to him about the "what if's" in this situation - such as "What if you wake up Sunday morning and you have nothing left?" To him, it isn't even possible.

    As far as rebuilding financially, fortunately he is still relatively young (43) and has the skills to work again when he decides to. I think that the psychological devastation will be a bigger issue than the financial one. People will likely not wake up thinking, "Oops, I should start maxing out my 401k now since I may be around a while longer."
    ==============================

    Sorry, brain fart, that was supposed to be "Watson and Crick."
     
  16. elte Valued Senior Member

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    Farming causes the nature of the soil to decline either by direct loss of the soil bulk over time by inevitable erosion, or depletion of minerals like phosphorus. Since farming has been going on in the Midwest, I've heard that the soil depth has already decreased from 6 feet down to 3 feet.
     
  17. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    (that was me who said that)

    Agreed; any farming depletes soil. You can replenish that many ways. You can use intensive fertilization, which is what we've been doing. You can fallow the field and plow that biomass back into it. You can use nitrogen fixers to replenish the nitrogenous nutrients in the soil. You can use compost and other wastes rather than chemical fertilizers.

    Intensive fertilization is how to get the most productivity out the a given plot of land, which is why Futilist says that our output would decline by 70% without the ability to use energy intensive fertilizers. (From what I've read it's closer to 50%, but let's go with 70%.) On the plus side we've learned a lot about sustainability over the years, and we can put that knowledge to use if we have to.
     
  18. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Greed , waste and excess will simply become unaffordable.

    Consider how far a wealthy senator of ancient Rome would have to downsize to reach the level of an ordinary Roman citizen living a reasonable decent life.

    This is what will happen on a nationwide scale...we will simply have to become sane.

    Not through government coercion...but through economic necessity.
     
  19. river Valued Senior Member

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    Agreed

    But also by just simply being reasonable and sound balanced people in our thoughts
     
  20. river Valued Senior Member

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    This apocalypse mentality has got to stop really

    Sure there is science , such as magnetic field flip , sun behavior and religious predictions

    But I think we should just get a grip and research what is going on in reality , by ourselves investigating any point of view with questions

    Only then will we really understand what awaits us now , in the near future , and beyond

    Inotherwords what concerns me is that it is possible to talk ourselves into an apocalypse ........
     
  21. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    It's amazingly persistent. For thousands of years the lure of the apocalypse prediction has proven too strong for otherwise 100% rational people.

    Yep. And then when it doesn't happen you have to do something like this:

     
  22. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Sanity

    The wealthy senators of ancient Rome did not downsize during the fall of Rome. The ordinary citizens starved.

    Marie Antoinette supposedly said "let them eat cake" during the French Revolution.

    The sanity you suggest has never happened before in recorded history. We have to become sane, but we can't. Since we have no ability to suddenly become sane, we will do the next best thing, and the only other thing possible. Collapse.

    ---Futilitist

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  23. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    You just said we need to "just get a grip and research what is going on in reality". Did you read any of the links in my original post? They summarize "what is going on in reality". "Magnetic field flip, sun behavior, and religious predictions" have absolutely nothing to do with this topic.

    We don't need to "talk ourselves into an apocalypse". We are about to have one. You are so concerned that we don't talk ourselves into an apocalypse, that you are missing the signs of an impending real apocalypse. Please check out some of the real resources that I have provided. Let's investigate the evidence together so that we can "really understand what awaits us...in the near future".

    ---Futilitist

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