Alt history #3- Germany does not invade belgium.

If Germany had not violated the neutrality of Belgium, It is arguable that it would have not brought britain into WWI, and therefore would have been a limited conflict between France, Russia and Germany and Austria Hungary. Despite Britain's closer ties to France, It is probable that a delay of the naval blockade and Britain's formidable navy would have enabled Germany to at least Annex France.

Of course, because germany did not invade Belgium, we can assume that the Schifflen Plan was not followed, or was altered to a greater extent. Would Germany then keep power until another challenge rose ? Would the historic European powers be consolidated into a select few ? Who would then challenge each other ?

 

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A shortened offensive line in the west would have allowed for a shortened defensive line as well. WW1 was a defender's war until the inception of the Tank. I think that one way or another it would have bogged down before the Germans got very far. Once trenches were built, the war could have lasted into the fifties. Check out the game Ironstorm for more on this alternate history.

 

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WWI, was a war of movement for the first year or so, If the germans had moved enough men quickly enough, It's arguable that they would have been able to take paris. I doubt the British could have been convinced. Russia was already occupied in the Western Front.

 

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I wish I knew more about it. It would seem the war of movement would have been limited by the supply train, similar to Lee's offensives into Yankee territory during the US Civil War. I can see a German bubble forming into French territory, but I think it would find itself punctured long before Paris. I'm a fan of German tactics, but this war was such a meat-grinder, I have never studied it in detail. If nothing else, I'll make an effort to look into it. Chances are good that Rommel or Guderian cut their teeth in this war, and who can forget Richtofen?

 

If Germany had not invaded Belgium, I doubt that they would have made it across the French border- after all, the strip of land between France and Germany was heavily fortified after it was invaded by German troops in the Franco-Prussian War. Just look at the Battle of Verdun. High casualties on both sides, very little ground gained by the Germans. If they had been able to get into the French heartland, it would have been at a high cost in human lives, probably too many for the fatherland to sustain.

 

Would they still not have caught the french by surprise ?.

 

Surprise IS valuable, but there are different types of surprise, tactical and strategic. Tactical surprise would have been valuable for a day or so, putting them as much as 60 miles(if very lucky) into France. I doubt they could have gotten more than 5 miles a day successfully. Strategic surprise could mean reinforcements are slow to arrive in France, which could seriously alter things in Germany's favor.

 

Hmm... we'll suppose Germany shoves its entire army through the French border, with high casualties. They head towards Paris, while an Italian army sweeps up from the south. Austria is busy fighting the Russians on the Eastern front. Britain, worried that Germany may overtake her in their rivalry for power and influence in Europe, begins a naval campaign against the Kaiser, refraining from joining in the land war. French armies are being steadily crushed by the Germans, while the Italians are barely being held back in the southeast of the country. A British blockade surrounds the German coastline, but plenty of food can be shipped in via the Mediterranean. The blockade has succeeded, though, in stunting the growth of the German Navy and maintaining British naval supremacy, which was its primary purpose in the first place. But the Brits are becoming anxious as the Central Powers overrun France and draw nearer to Paris.

In America, public opinion is evenly divided beween those who support France and those who support Germany. Though the country's leaders tend towards isolationism and neutrality, it is widely believed that the country, if it joined the war at all, would side with Britain in any situation.

The Austrians are giving the Russians a beating, steadily advancnig through Eastern Europe towards the westernmost major cities, along with a few German contingents. As the war progresses, the Russian people's faith in their Czar lessens and lessens, and finally the Russian Revoultion breaks out.

(cont'd)

 

I heard that the French army commandeered the entire taxi-fleet of Paris in order to get the French troops out to the front line in time to stop the German advance on the capital in 1914--smart move.

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Russian revolution frees troops to continue the advance to France, and the Channel. Meanwhile, Serbia lies crushed by Austria Hungary. The Central Powers now have complete domination of European Land. Britain continues naval blockade, and the pillage of France begins. United states then does business with Germany, the risk of Submarine warfare non existent. Britain is now isolated, with only her navy preventing a German invasion.

The Citizens of France, and Serbia now suffer in defeat. Tensions between Britain and Germany cool down, until another conflict lies over colonial possessions. Japan does not take part much. Britain continues to grow, making it's colonies more fortified (competition with germany), Until Japan feels threatened, Nothing happens.

 

Plan XVII would come to a crushing halt. All the élan of the world wouldn't have competed with 150mm howitzers. Either the French would have folded at the break of offensive, or there would be an overwhelming counterattack resulting in another Sedan. If this is too harsh, perhaps a defensive line might have held along the Moselle and Meuse rivers, with a large salient at Verdun ("Ils ne passeront pas!").

I imagine the German plan would involve a mad dash for Petersburg, or a holding maneuver in Prussia and/or limited offensive into Poland and up the Baltic. In the latter case, one can probably count on an immediate "digging in" on the Eastern front at the first sight of trouble if von Moltke is running the show. Assuming his imminent resignation, the H-L dream team would reinforce the Serbian front and prepare for mop up, while pressing Conrad von Hötzendorf to expedite a Byelorussian offensive.

The Austrians no doubt will have their sights set on Montenegro and possibly Albania. Afterall, what is the control of the Danube to a Habsburg when the entire Adriatic is up for grabs? At German request for restraint, perhaps Austrian terralust could be quenched with substantial gains in Ukraine.

In Russia's haste to mobilize and a minimum of four German armies in the field, one can probably count on multiple Tannenbergs. Without any hope of a French breakthrough, I imagine the Czar would initiate indirect peace talks via Asquith or Wilson or both.

Wild cards:

- I don't see Italy intervening on France's behalf, or bringing arms against her (who wants Nice that bad anyway?),but who knows?

- Another surprise contender might be Sweden. I hear long lost Finland is ripe for harvest around August.

- A Balkan coalition against Austria is highly unlikely but one can imagine it would be heavily instigated and possibly funded by France and a neutral Britain.

- Turkish intervention? I doubt it would be appreciated by Germany. Those Caucasus oil fields aren't going to be shared.

- Rising sun? In case of German victory I don't think it would be prudent for Britain to let Japan off the leash.

 

I don't think Britain, under George V, would have got involved in the war just to defend France, if Belgium had not been attacked. Edward VII was much more the Francophile than his son was--there's a good chance that Britain may have stayed out of the conflict, maintained its isolation and let Germany and France slug it out. That may have led to Germany crippling both Russia and France, then taking on Britain later--say, 1916 or 1918, once they had recouped their losses from the first war.

 

Unfortunately, neither Georgie or Eddie would have any power to declare war or even affect foreign policy in any major way.

I don't believe Germany would have purposely instigated a war with Britain after having come to terms with France and Russia.

I also have to disagree with those that believe Germany would have pushed for total annexation of France. Many believed France would never forgive the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine and that war would be inevitable as long as France had able to wage war. As a result, I believe it is more likely Germany would have demanded a massive indemnity while seizing key industrial areas and ports in Flanders and Normandy, but would have left a French state intact. Army size restrictions and colonial concessions would likely be demanded, a Treaty of Versailles in reverse if you will. Remember, even a victorious Germany would be wary of antagonizing a neutral United States and Britain. Germany wanted world recognition, a "place in the sun", not global supremacy.

 

But still, Germany's border with Russia would be secure. Serbia completely crushed.

On the good side, Hitler would have never risen to power without the general discontent of people.

 

You never know. Political upheaval in Austria-Hungary following the war's end, win or lose, could possible facilitate a fate similar to 1933 Germany. There are many factors that could contribute to this scenario, including the creation of a German-sponsored Polish state. Magyars, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Romanians, Croats, and Slavs living in A-H would perhaps be emboldened to rise up, causing a major shift to the right in Vienna (if that is even possible). There is no doubt that minority independence movements would be infiltrated and funded by Marxists, so the possibility of a red eastern Europe in the years following a German victory is also something to consider.

 

I dunno, he might have simply gone a different path to power. Anti-semitism was, at that time, widely popular.

I have been waiting for this, but have never heard: what of the Ottoman Empire?

Another thought, maybe a subthread-with Germany winning in France, and it's navy stunted, perhaps America is convinced to enter the war via German enticements against GB and France.

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Hitler goes into religion, and seeks to join all Aryans into a united Brotherhood of the Sun, with him as High Priest?

 

As I stated before, I doubt a winning Germany would want Turkish support in the conflict. The Ottomans would have their sites set on Baku's oil fields and Kazakhstan and I don't see any reason why Germany would support this. If I remember correctly, as Ludendorff was sending German troops through Ukraine to the oil fields, he threatened the Turks to stop their advance or else...

EDIT: I found this article on Historynet.com describing the fracturing German-Turkish alliance.

 

So what then ?, A Turkey vs Italy/Germany war ?

 

If...

- Britain remains neutral.
- Germany trounces Russia.
- Germany successfully defends the Ruhr Valley, exacting heavy French casualties and precipitating a negotiated peace.

Then I believe...

- There will not be a prolonged conflict.
- Germany prevailing on two fronts will perhaps sway British and American opinion into supporting harsh terms imposed on France (a large indemnity, demilitarization of eastern France, and colonial concessions).
- The Turks will never be propositioned for alliance.