Posted before, but here from somebody else - and when it turned up yesterday, it read as key, now: http://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2017/08/turnout-troofing.html
#lulz | #WhatTheyVotedFor One of the interesting things in all this is how nobody seems to be taking the lulz factor seriously. To wit, I don't actually disagree with the analysis, but— And in these surveys, people in particular who really voted for Trump in 2016 and stayed home in 2012 were especially likely to claim they had voted for Obama, either because they thought it sounded good ("I'm not a racist, I voted for Obama") or really believed they had because he won ("I had so much hope but he disappointed me"). While people who didn't vote at all in 2016 but wished they had voted for Clinton claimed in many cases truthfully that they had voted for Obama in 2012. (Yastreblyansky↱) —one of the phenomena I've been unable to avoid in recent years is the number of people who insist they are something in order to discredit that something. Then again, this is harder to quantify; the kittyshit aspect is buried in the "disappointed" line. It's not like that particular routine is uncommon: They talk about how Obama disappointed them, but their entire Obama narrative was written by a Republican. Furthermore, in addition to the difficulty social sciences might have in teasing that out over the long run, it's not going to be in ANES data; that's the sort of examination that requires some manner of inventory. Nonetheless, until we start accounting for the antisocials who go out of their way to fuck shit up for the sake of fucking something, because, I don't know, discerning diverse and unexpressed priorities according to distal behavioral observation might as well be crystal balling ... er ... right. Until we start accounting for identity politic provocateurism, and especially the alleged lulzcat variety, figuring what happened among the voters is going to be something like scrying water in a reflective dish. ____________________ Notes: Yastreblyansky. "Turnout troofing". The Rectivication of Names. 16 August 2017. Yastreblyansky.Blogspot.com. 15 November 2017. http://bit.ly/2zYWZdP
Now that the Syrian Crisis appears to be finalizing and refugees may start repatriations etc. Now that ISIL appears to have been thoroughly neutralized. Now that USA citizens can rest a little easier and sleep better at night than they could prior to Trumps election (even with possible war crimes claims pending due to Trumps heavy handed approach..) I wonder how the voter will react and whether the need to tolerate Trumps, eccentricities still exists.
What I meant above was that the main reason for Trumps success IMO was immigration, refugees and border control exasperated by ISIL, terrorism. It even appears that Kimm of NK has quietened down somewhat. etc... Now that those factors ( fearful speculations etc - paranoia's) have diminished somewhat, will that impact on Trumps support negatively or positively?
You're simply wrong about that. No aspect of reality was an important reason for Trump's success, least of all an actual refugee situation or border control involving terrorism. In the US, immigration is not strongly connected with refugees or terrorists (the refugee status of the Mexican border crossers doesn't get through the bubble wall), but is instead a subsidiary aspect of a larger racial situation - not even the main racial show. Syrian refugees hardly registered on the awareness of the average Trump voter, and are long forgotten by now - whatever is going on in Syria has had almost no effect on them, and it will continue to have no effect unless it somehow involves fake news about Russia and Trump. There are a lot of myths about the Trump campaign and election, and a lot of people with strong interests in hiding what happened, revising the history of the thing. Keep in mind that the primary horror and sin of American history was not the Holocaust or the collaborations of WWII - Stalinist or Fascist, either one. America's elephant in the room is slavery and its aftermath. Black Lives Matter was more important than ISIS, in Trump's campaign.
You're probably right however I believe Trump was primarily elected on "build the wall", a Muslim ban, national security issues, ( e-mails) the refugee/asylum seeker crisis in Europe, increase interest in greater nationalism , white supremacy, Gun lobby and military build up Bannon/Trump style alt right, Brexit etc... Observing historically, that as national and identity security fears increase nationalism and a trend to the right also occurs. Now that that fear is reducing I wonder how the trend to the alt right will be effected. Certainly the trend in Europe will be interesting now that Syrian refugees can start to return home to Syria. If the trend to the right is mitigated how will this affect Trumps over all political positioning? My guess is that Trump will adapt and move closer to the center or even go left. leaving Bannon to "breit his bart" on his lonesome.. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Trump has no personal ideology of that kind in the first place. He cannot move in that fashion. The crisis in Europe played no role - few Trump voters even heard about it. The emails were not a national security issue. The military buildup played only a small part - it was in conflict with the nationalism, another small issue. Brexit played no role, and few Trump voters have any idea what it was or is. Wall building, Muslim banning, and white supremacy, are basically the same issue - white supremacy. And so forth. You left out fundamentalist Christianity, a bigger factor than any of those except white supremacy. You also left out misogyny and anti-feminist stances, also a bigger factor than any you listed except white supremacy. In the US these identity and security fears are based in racial bias against residents of the country. The fear is not reducing in the US, because it is based in domestic racial issues that are not going away.
