A look into the future --- from 1900

The great thing about these kinds of predictions is that for everything they falsely predict will come true, so much has happened that they probably couldn't conceive of happening. Who could've thought back then that we'd have little magic boxes that could access an entire world's worth of knowledge and culture in an instant, let alone "telegraph an image". This sort of ability even fifty years ago was far fetched at best until a piece of technology not a lot of people a hundred years ago could've seen coming, electronic computing.

So, applying this to the predictions of our next 100 years, we think we'll have nanotech, alternate fuels, access to space, a plateaued world population, etc. etc., but could you imagine what completely unforeseen things we'll discover that'll make our current view look passe?! I honestly can't wait...

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

The future is grossly overrated...

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Here is a prediction from me: They will have memories that can be put into our brains, just like in that Schwartzenegger movie. So instead of going on a vacation, you get a brainload and you will have the pleasant memories of a nice 2 weeks honeymoon, or whatever you wish for.
Also instead of going to live concerts, you can just upload the sense of it. The opposite of it will be aviable too, deleting unwanted/bad memories...

One thing I don't see happening is the extension of human life. After all who the hell wants to live up to 130 if I look and feel like an 80 year old in my last 50 years? Unless they can give me youth, health and ability, I don't need extra life.

Going back to the brainload, if education can be brainloaded, that would be revolutionary. An 8 year old kid could get the information and abilities of a brainsurgeon. But what would we do with all those extra years that now we don't need to waste on education???

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

I assure you THAT will not happen. Since various ailments of old age is what makes you die of old age, any extension of lifespan will by necessity include amelioration of these ailments. In fact, it is happening already -- not only people live longer than 40-50 years ago, they are healthier in their old age. An average 70-year old today is about as healthy as an average 60-year decades ago.

Youth? How about late middle age? Would you want to up to 130 if you look and feel like a 50 year old? Because that's much more likely.

 

I guess I would take the deal, although I doubt that happening, plus 50 year olds have plenty of healthproblems already.

Here is a thing that could happen although might be illegal:

The separation of mind and body. What if they could actually store your memories? That is in essence your life. So let's say you are a rich 70 year old and you can somehow buy a young body (like they buy kidneys) or get a guy executed or just died in an accident and your memories could be uploaded?

Basicly it was still YOU, just in a new body and you had the chance to live another 60 years. This could also be used as a backup in case you have an accident and let's say your memories would be backed up in every 3 months. If an accident happens and your body gets destroyed in it, they just find a new body and upload your latest backup...

Sounds crazy, but I believe we will be able to store and trandsfer memories...

 

Of more importance than new technology for most reading here is the old economics truth: The piper must be paid after the dance.

The developed world has had about a century of the unsustainable "fossil fuel dance."* If not at peak of "Peak Oil" curve it is certainly close. I think we are already slightly turning down just past the peak. On the down side of peak oil, one thing is sure: Rapidly rising prices for mobile fuel, except in Brazil, where more than half is already sustainable from sugar cane alcohol.

The ramifications of rapidly increasing cost of motor fuel are many and especially sever for a society that developed and spread out into a "suburban infrastructure" under the tacit assumption that cheap energy was "forever." The transformation to expensive liquid energy will dominate the future and be quite painful for the US and to slightly less extent EU.

Thus, I am sticking with my prediction, made several years ago, that the run on the dollar comes between October 2008 and October 2014, but the first half of that six year window is looking more probable than the second half now. The extension of that prediction is that the US and EU enter the worst ever depression within a few months of the run against the dollar. That GDP growth in Asia will remain positive, but more like 3 or 4%, not "double digits" as it was "pre-dollar collapse." Countries like Brazil and other suppliers of food stock, raw materials, and energy to Asian nations will become effectively their "economic colonies," but not collapse economically.

Unlike most, who only predict the distant future, you will have the chance to laugh at me or cry for yourselves soon. Thus far, it is all going about as I forecast.
---------------
*As far as I know, no one predicting in 1900 pointed to the "fossil fuels dance" as the most important development coming to the world, but at least they knew then also that the PIPER MUST BE PAID. I am only predicting that he will be.

 

Why can't the US and Europe also switch to sugar ethanol, electric cars, fuel cells, etc? We could generate the electricty with nuclear plants, coal, etc. I've even read that high oil prices make coal to oil technology profitable.

Also, I foresee a bigtime comeback for the railroads. Currently, we transport most goods by truck. A railroad exectutive told me that trucks would need to get over 150 mpg to be as efficient as trains. Instead, they get about 4 mpg.

So return to using trains for transportation of goods across the country and just use trucks for the final few miles. Power the cars/trucks whatever as I mentioned above. Why is this not feasible?

 

True. Mitigation for the effect of peak oil is possible, but they need to start yesterday....

 

More reasons to build more nuclear power plants. But I knew that already.

 

All true, but Syzygys's comment, literally inaccurate, points out why it is not "feasible" now. His "yesterday" was about 50 years ago:

Brazil was under military dictatorship (no environmental review delays then) when they ordered all gasoline stations to install alcohol pumps and storage tanks -50 years later, Brazil is slightly more than half way to running it cars on alcohol only. The US foolishly built the "suburban infrastructure" not the needed railroads, public transport, good urban schools and luxury high-rise apartments it needs for the era of expensive energy. Trying to do so now - is impossible - had to have made different, more intelligent choices at least four decades ago to avoid collapse and civil unrest, which will just make things worse, now.

Food on your table travels more than an average of 1500 miles I recently read (I had estimated it as 500 earlier) Many will have guns and empty bellies. They will look in your basement for something to eat. It may get very ugly. - Certainly, no liberties for anyone. Fuel only for the army, etc. Good thing the government is already planning a "domestic passport." They will be needed at the check points.

As this discussion is diverting the thread, I will answer some of your first paragraph’s questions in a new thread. Probably to be called:
If BRICs are Strong; How is Food & Fuel Sustained? - In the “science and society” forum.