A Fuel Depleted Economy?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Carcano, Dec 9, 2012.

  1. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    When I mentioned oil and gas in the OP I was referring to 'natural gas'...not gasoline which is derived from oil along with diesel fuel. I'll go back and edit to make this more specific.
     
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  3. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Here's a lovely view of Central Park in Manhattan...can you see how it will look in 20-30 years, with herds of goats, large enclosed chicken roosts, fish ponds, and potato patches? Walnut trees will still be grown for the valuable lumber.

    It could even have a special 'Kosher Corner' with a wood burning bagel oven and a Rabbi on staff to bless all the produce at checkout!

    What a fun weekend outing for the kids...to see where real food comes from!

    http://postimage.org/image/dzbeqqb9b/
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2012
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  5. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Speaking of New York, what will happen to its grand old hotels if travel falls off to essential business trips only?

    This is the Ansonia Hotel built around the turn of the century. It already has some commercial space on the ground floor, but it will be expanded to include the second and third stories to provide most essential products and services to the condo conversions above.

    It will no longer function as hotel but a residential building with all amenities within walking distance of the elevators. Amazingly, this is somewhat similar to how the original building functioned. It actually had a small farm on the roof!

    "Stokes had a Utopian vision for the Ansonia—that it could be self-sufficient, or at least contribute to its own support—which led to perhaps the strangest New York apartment amenity ever. The farm on the roof included about 500 chickens, many ducks, about six goats and a small bear. Every day, a bellhop delivered free fresh eggs to all the tenants, and any surplus was sold cheaply to the public in the basement arcade. Not much about this feature charmed the city fathers, however, and in 1907, the Department of Health shut down the farm in the sky."


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    Last edited: Dec 11, 2012
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  7. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    We might learn something about how to cope with the future by looking at the past of rationing, when America abandoned free market principles as a matter of survival.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing#United_States

    "The United States did not have food rationing in World War I. Through slogans such as "Food Will Win the War", "Meatless Mondays", and "Wheatless Wednesdays", the United States Food Administration under Herbert Hoover reduced national consumption by 15%. In 1941 the British appealed to Americans to conserve food to provide more for Britons fighting World War II.

    A national speed limit of 35 miles per hour was imposed to save fuel and rubber for tires. To receive a gasoline ration card, a person had to certify a need for gasoline and ownership of no more than five tires. All tires in excess of five per driver were confiscated by the government, because of rubber shortages. An A sticker on a car was the lowest priority of gasoline rationing and entitled the car owner to 3 to 4 gallons of gasoline per week."

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    Last edited: Dec 11, 2012
  8. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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  9. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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  10. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Why is it insanity? Some people/companies/countries are better at some things than others. It makes sense that they'd want to trade. Visions of every man, woman and child in the US raising chickens on their rooftops while generating all their own power, pumping their own water, refining their own sewage, growing their own corn, making their own fertilizer and throwing their own pots, pans and plates are surely romantic, but far from a possible (or even desirable) outcome.
     
  11. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Why would it be cheaper to raise pigs in the US and ship the pork 6000 miles to Russia, which has its own meat producing industry and infinities of fertile farm land?

    Doesnt make sense. This is a testament to how inexpensive fuel is currently.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...fuel-prices-slow-vessels-freight-markets.html
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2012
  12. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    I certainly dont see pumping water or making fertilizer as romantic personally. This isnt about quaint romanticism its about economics.

    Farming grain will continue to happen in the countryside, but raising chickens and goats specifically will move into the cities. Some individuals of course will grow their own vegetables, as they already do.

    Its not well known that one of the methods Adolf Hitler used to save German cities from food shortages in the 1930s was to allocate large areas of public land and wasted space for city vegetable gardens. There were at one time literally thousands of them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2012
  13. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    This is Terminal Island on the coast of Los Angeles...where your toaster and coffee maker were unloaded and put on 18 wheel trucks bound for Walmart after their long journey from Asia.

    http://postimage.org/image/n2xvxh14r/

    As you can imagine, this is prime ocean front real estate and will be sold off to developers for billions over the next 30 years...as shipping slides into the abyss.

    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/7390098...-of-2007-•-Fuel-costs-represent-as-much-as-50

    One could think of this port as the bellybutton of America, which has become like a helpless economic infant completely dependant on the productive capacity of foreign nations...who keep it alive through the umbilical cord of pacific shipping lanes.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2012
  14. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    One thing I havent mentioned yet is whether a military budget would even be necessary in a fuel depleted economy. I suspect that 90% of it could be eliminated considering no foreign nation could ever mount a significant invasion without vast reserves of liquid fuel for aircraft, ships and vehicles.

    Yes, modern warfare is a luxury of liquid hydrocarbons.
     
  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    You answered your own question - cheap fuel. Make it more expensive and the 6000 mile trip won't make sense, but a 60 mile trip from the farm to the city will.

    Agreed! Which is why, in general, things will be made in central locations and shipped out to people.

    Why? Why move 10x the feed into cities when you can move 1x the meat into cities instead? Doesn't make much sense.

    Definitely.

    As I am sure you are aware, the world was perfectly capable of violent and deadly wars even before oil was commonly used. Sailing ships landing 150,000 well armed soldiers on the shores of a country, for example, would make for an excellent invasion force.
     
  16. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    It still doesnt make sense when you consider the price of agricultural labour as well.

    Is it cheaper in Russia...of course!
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2012
  17. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    What are they going to do when they get here...run around on foot...bring their own ponies?

    I dont think so. In any event, the ships would be sent to the bottom of the sea with missiles before they even dropped anchor.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2012
  18. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    Because grain is very light weight compared to meat which is also bulky and needs to be refrigerated by liquid fuel consumption during transport.

    Remember, animals are mostly water.

    My local seafood shop already farms their own produce on site in large aquariums.


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    Last edited: Dec 14, 2012
  19. DaS Energy Registered Senior Member

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    Knock out Coal and Oil and nothing changes except things get cheaper and cleaner. Knuckle draggers came up with boiling water, then cave man took it on, followed by shaved man who cut down all the trees to keep water boiling, now when no more trees were left shaved man burns Coal and Oil instead, not much Aliens come to visit Juarasic Park.
     
  20. Aqueous Id flat Earth skeptic Valued Senior Member

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    Strategic petroleum reserves are allocated for this scenario. Other fuels--nuclear, hydrazine, solid propellants--will be available. Bombs can be dropped from balloons. Artillery use nitrogen based propellants and explosives. In the scenario in which fuel becomes depleted there would be chaos and martial law. I think the first phase of this scenario would probably lead to war, resulting in victory to whichever force controls the most petroleum reserves and alternative fuels and weapons. Given this scenario, the oil rich nations would probably cut off production long before it runs out. One such country has already started stockpiling--Norway--although presumably without anticipating military conflict.
     
  21. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    I can assure you with great certainty that bombs will not be dropped from balloons...missiles however will still be available, and we all know that invasions cannot be executed with missiles.
     
  22. Carcano Valued Senior Member

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    I agree...but strategic reserves are only good for ONE more war.
     
  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    ?? Labor is cheaper away from cities. Thus it makes more economic sense to raise animals away from cities.

    There's a reason soldiers learn to march - and it ain't parades.

    Again, we did just fine with soldiers on foot for centuries - and then did fine with cavalry for centuries after that. Although it is quite likely that we'd be using alternative methods of transportation that did not use liquid fuel. During fuel shortages during WWII, for example, cars were converted to run on wood gas.

    Not if they had good close-in defenses (as modern ships do.)

    You need ten pounds of grain to make one pound of meat. It's easier to move one pound of meat than ten pounds of grain. And most refrigerators do not run on liquid fuel.
     

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