30 Billion Trillion Stars

So that is 40 billion trillion more than what I said in the topic? Wow... And that's only the stars we can see.

I was under the impression that we could see 80-90% of the entire universe, but I also read that it could just about be infinite. Don't know what to believe here.

 

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Read the book probability by asimov He uses the drake equation to determine the probability that life exists beyond earth. He came up with a number indistingushable from 100%. Play around with the numbers used in the drake equation cause many of them are just estimations. DRAKE EQUATION N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.(about 100 billion). fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them (about 20%-50%). ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life (about 1 to 5 I use 1/9 for looking at our solar system). fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves (any where from 100% to 0% use a really small number) fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves (any where from 100%-0%). fc is the fraction of fi that communicate (10-20%) fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live (this one is tough 1/10000000 something like that.

Eliminate the last few factors to find the number planets with intelligent life and the number of planets with life on them.

http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html

 

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The Drake equation would be meaningful if there was some rational basis for picking the numbers to be used.

Nobody has any evidence to support the numbers various people have put into that equation. We might be just now developing some data about how many stars have planets. Beyond that, all else is a WAG, not even a SWAG.

 

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The scientific community has a preferred theory called the Concordance Model, in which the Universe is infinite. So, try to imagine our Sun as a little lentil in a lentil soup being cooked in a cauldron of infinite volume

 

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You make some good point Anonomous. 71 million years the average time span of a species on our planet. ya sounds about right. Personally I dont think we will find any human left on earth one million years from now. We will probably dedenegrate to the point we could'nt even reproduce ourselves. Modern convenienses, the soft living that's getting softer all the time etc etc. If i could find somebody to take the bet, I'll bet a hundred dollars on that.

REGARDS APOLO

 

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In Australia, and in the UK, there is an ever decreasing minority people who use the word "billion" to mean a million million. Like it or not, popular usage demands that "billion" means a thousand million unless stated otherwise.

Earth is (roughly) 4.5 thousand million years old.

 

Our sun should be pretty much the same for 1-3 thousand million (American Billion) years. It does not do anything drastic like turn into a red giant in 150,000 million years.

 

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Will that event happen on a Thursday or Friday? I don't want it to mess up a long weekend.

Novacane

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Its also estimated that more stars have planets than not.

 

Red Devil: Do you have a citation for the following?

Who made such an estimate? On what evidence was it based?

 

It's difficult to make an estimate of the percentage of stars having planets because some of these planets are surely small and undetectable with conventional methods, but anyway, with the actual detection methods it has been found that approximately 5% of stars have planets, and at least 25% of Sun-like stars have planets. The info comes from this article
http://www.sciscoop.com/story/2003/9/29/84155/8276

Notice also in that article, that Lineweaver, one of the most prestigious astronomers in active, plays with the idea that virtually all the stars have planets. Quoting from the article: "Given that there are about 400 billion stars in our Galaxy alone, it means there could be up to 400 billion stars with planets"

 

I somewhat understand the limitations as far as our current technology and understanding of physics goes. But assuming that we begin to travel at 10% of the speed of light, it would take 88 years to reach sirus. If we knew before-hand that it had planet(s) which were habitable or had the ability to make them habitable, then perhaps it would be worth sending a few colonies.

Assuming we successfully colonise a nearby star, you then have two planets who are actively seeking out new habitats... soon it might become 3 planets... and so the human race builds momentum and starts slowly spreading through the galaxy like a virus.

I would assume we would be capable of faster than 10% light travel though. I think I read about a solar wind sail which could potentially reach 10%. If we're already experimenting with that technology today, in the distant future even if we can't surpass light, we would surely have the means to spread to another star.

 

Evidence of Astonomers in Astronomical programs on discovery tv.

 

[q] Where hundreds of thousands of the smartest humans can be taken to underground chambers (a la deep impact). [/q]

Or perhaps, just those with guns, money and power make it underground. Those people aren't necessarily the smartest people. Of course, we could also argue over how to define "smart" or whether ethical or moral standards should be considered.

 

Given the enormous distances to other stars even in our own galaxy, and the speed limmit of 99 % of the speed light which would be the fastest we could hope to travel even in a futuristic Ferary space craft, I think we can forget about colonising other planets.

And then again. I remember my physics teacher back in the fifties telling us, that mankind would never be able to send an object past the gravitational pull of the earth, because even if a pond of gasoline converted all its energy into propulsion, it could'nt even get its own weight halfway to the moon nevermind the rocket and other hardware that would be needed. Well it seems to me we have now send several rockets to Mars, so... I guess never say never.

REGARDS APOLO