Appears Crimea has changed hands quite often throughout history, most recently passing, in 1954, in what would then have been a mere administrative move, from the Russian SSR to the Ukrainian SSR, within the USSR. But that had the effect, when the USSR broke up, of making it part of Ukraine rather than Russia, even though most of the population is Russian. It also hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet, of course, at Sevastopol. Could be a case for Russia to reclaim it, and appears as if this may now be underway by force, or a combination of threats and unattributable (but suspiciously well-trained) militiamen. But the US, France and several NATO countries, including the UK, are signatories - with Russia - to a declaration preserving the integrity of Ukraine. If Russia breaches this, we could all find ourselves at war with Russia (!!). The last time this nearly happened was at Kosovo airport - and it was a very hairy moment. It seems crazy for Russia to attempt this piece of brinkmanship. But, as Paddy Ashdown commented today, Russia is a "declining power in a bad mood" and in such cases irrational and tragic decisions are not unknown. We will all need very cool heads and to focus on this very intently, to avoid a disaster. Personally, I have little faith in the mindset or the judgment of Putin. He is just a KGB thug, when it comes down to it, and doesn't appear to understand the utility of anything but crude muscle (not to mention a spot of poison from time to time) to get his way in the world. Such people are very dangerous.
I know how to fix it: we'll send the Light Brigade to sort out the pesky Russians. Worked a treat the first time! Seriously, I don't know how dangerous this is going to be; Russia will push the boundaries and the West will push back in the usual way. I don't think there will be a hot war over this.
I wish I felt as sanguine. It seems to me there is ample scope here for civil war to be fomented and, as we have seen in other recent cases, civil wars in areas close to home, or otherwise strategically significant, have a strong tendency to draw in neighbouring powers in an effort to resolve or contain them.
I thought it was a part of the Ukraine now, so how can it "break away" if it is already a part of something? The only way that could happen would be a civil war between the Ukraine and it.
I don't see this evolving into a hot war either. Each side has a lot to loose in a hot war. If Russia invaded they would have yet another economic and disaster on their hands. I don't think Putin is that dumb.
Considering that the ethnic Russians in the Crimea only started recruiting their local militias a few days ago, the armed men who have appeared at the Crimean parliament and at the airports seem awfully well-equipped, well-trained and well-organized. As the news quoted one man who spoke to them, 'they weren't volunteers or amateurs, they were professionals'. My guess is that they are what the Russians call 'Naval Infantry' from the Russian base at Sebastopol, the equivalent of American or British Marines. It probably isn't any accident that witnesses have reported seeing Russian armored personnel carriers on the roads. Interestingly, I saw a report this morning saying that armed men have appeared at two other Crimean airports, one of them what seems to be a small general-aviation airport just a few miles outside Simferopol, and these armed men seem to be proudly flying the Ukrainian flag. So maybe the Kiev government's military is playing the same game, putting in small armed units. I think that the Europeans and Washington will talk a good game, but I don't see them putting any military forces into Ukraine. I don't think that the Russians want to move en-masse into Ukraine, especially not into Kiev and western Ukraine. But Moscow definitely wants it known that they could, if they are provoked. It's a threat that they are holding over events. My speculation is that Moscow wants to secure Crimea in pro-Russian hands. They have already pretty much done that. Then they will kind of give Kiev an ultimatum, either agree to a deal that satisfies the Russians, or Russia will support Crimea's succession, the same way that Moscow supported the succession of Abkazia, even fighting a short war with Georgia to do it. In other words, right now Putin probably envisions Crimea as a bargaining chip, useful for pressuring how Ukraine subsequently evolves. But if Ukraine fails to play ball, Russia will probably support Crimean separatists, most likely by recognizing their independence as a Russian client-state (while blaiming Kiev's intransigence for causing it) or conceivably, by simply annexing Crimea to Russia if the Crimeans vote that they want that in a referendum.
After building a $51 billion podium for the Canadian men's and women's hockey teams, he should start worrying about domestic priorities for a change instead of trying to make the rest of the world equally miserable. We need to be on Russia's case hard, we can't let them simply snatch away a region by force without a free, open referendum and all the other procedures sovereign countries must go through before they're partitioned. We should ready the economic card, and be ready militarily too if Russia starts slaughtering people. Initial signs aren't looking good, seems Russian troops are already "helping" local Crimean politicians decide how to vote on the relevant issues.
But can he control it? Once you get Ukrainians fighting one another it can easily spin out of control. Putin may fancy himself as the cool, chess-playng puppet master in the Kremlin, but even though I've watched plenty of Bond movies I don't believe in his ability to control events.
He'll intimidate them by ripping his shirt off and shooting his pet dog, then demand a restoration of calm and order "or else."
I don't know this for a fact, but there is a possibility that during the break-up of the USSR that each smaller state was given their freedom/democracy under the pretence that should they ever find a breakdown in their government, through what ever reason, Troops from Russia would be dispatched. If this was the case it would explain not just the current situation but also why Russia pushed so hard on the Georgian rebels. To put it into a different framework it would be like the UK granting Scotland it's independence with a clause that should they find themselves out of a government, the UK imposes martial law on Scotland in an attempt to bring back order .
Things are heating up. Some of this might just be rumor, but clearly something's happening. (Putin's taken his shirt off.) Many more reports of Russian armored vehicles on Crimean roads. There are photos on the internet of convoys of armored vehicles, armored personnel carriers and tanks. There are also photos of roadblocks manned by men in full combat gear. . Reportedly the Russians have closed Crimean airspace to civilian air traffic. Internet service to the Crimea has reportedly been at least partially cut. US President Obama issued a statement saying in part, "We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside Ukraine." Reportedly the US military and intelligence agencies are "scrambling" to find out exactly what's happening. Ukrainian UN Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev has been meeting with the President of the UN Security Council. Sergiy Kunitsyn, the Ukrainian acting President's representative for Crimea told Agence France Presse that 13 Russian Air Force IL-76 transports landed suddenly in rapid succession at Gvardeyskoye air base near Simferopol, each one containing approximately 150 troops. (That totals roughly 2000.) Kunitsyn termed it an "armed invasion". Another report counted 11 Russian military helicopters flying west into Crimea. One of the more interesting reports concerns the Ukrainian military forces that had reportedly occupied two Crimean airports. It seems that Russian forces showed up some time later to seize the airports, found the Ukrainian troops there, and currently the Ukrainians occupy the airport grounds with the Russians outside. The Ukrainian government source that provided this information says that no shots have been fired so far. But there is obviously the danger of an incident triggering things off.
I think I can put your doubts to rest. Russia has absolutely no excuse to be reigniting the Cold War here, it's just yet another power play land grab for them. Kiev specifically appealed to the United States and the United Kingdom, the two parties that – along with Russia – had signed a 1994 pact guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for the country handing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal over to Russian control. It’s likely the signatories of the so-called Budapest Memorandum never expected that 20 years later it would be a matter of war and peace. Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/globe-in-kiev-ukraines-new-government-declares-russia-has-invaded/article17183580/ Why do the Olympics so frequently pick the perfect time to reward fascists and communists for their "good behaviour"? Let's give the next one to Assad, might as well be consistent.
Well here is the rub, Europe is very dependent on Russian oil and natural gas exports. Russia is the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second largest exporter of oil. So economic sanctions work both ways and Putin knows it. The US isn't dependent on Russian oil and natural gas, but its allies are. I imagine Obama will take some actions to sanction Russia, exactly what remains to be seen. It will be a matter of who flinches first.
Um, you guys do know the Light Brigade got its collective ass kicked, right? That tragedy started with a military mis-communication and ended in a suicidal charge. What I don't get is Secretary of State Kerry talking about it saying, Blah blah blabbity blah -nothing remotely informative or helpful or even diplomatic. Those of us who paid attention in high school geography class understand that Russia's Holy Grail is a warm water port. It's the biggest country on the planet but most of its coastline is on the Arctic Ocean. Its Pacific coast is still quite icy and cold and even farther from Moscow than Korea is. And of course its western border is landlocked. Russia is a great big bull with its nose ring tied to a stake . The only warm water port they have is Crimea and even that requires a voyage out through Istanbul, and possibly past Gibraltar before they can ship to anywhere nice - like the USA Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! If you look at a map, you will see that while Crimea is southernmost Ukraine. However, right there to the east is yet another big chunk of gargantuan Russia. Gargantuan, but sadly lacking in year-round ice-free seaports. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! So I'm not defending anything Russia may do in the Crimea: I'm just explaining why the region is of vital interests to them. (Sigh) Why do I always have to do John Kerry's work for him?
Don't worry: us Brits are painfully aware of the story of the Charge of the Light Brigade. A tale of idiotic, pointless and suicidal bravery. "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre." Amazingly, the man who led the charge (Lord Cardigan) survived the charge and went back to relax - on his yacht, if my memory serves - after it was over. Your point about a warm water port for the Russians is exactly my fear. I would not be at all surprised if this escalates into an annexation of Crimea. Whether this can be done without igniting a civil war in Ukraine strikes me as doubtful.
Again, I in no way support the Russian effort, and what in the heck do they need my support for? But try to see it their way. They just spent a fortune in nearby Sochi, which would make a fine port, but they spent billions there on fireworks, apartments and podiums. So what's a new international portage going to cost them? Easier to hold on the ones they've got in Sevastopol. When Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, and up to now when Ukraine was firmly in their camp, they didn't have to worry about shipping from the Black Sea, and now they (probably correctly) imagine they do have to worry if the next Ukrainian government is on its way to joining the EU. And I can see how it would stick in the Russian craw anyway to have a former republic go all Western Bloc on them. I remember they didn't like it at all when the Baltic states were looking westward. I suppose they still are, but what are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia compared to their best warm water port?
Yeah, it's true. I kinda knew at the time that I was mis-spelling it, but didn't bother to look it up to check. To hell with mistakes! I was channeling Putin, I guess. ("I am feeling Powerful!") My shirt was ripped off.
I think an energy crisis in Europe is preferable to standing by and watching hordes of Ukrainians being gunned down for territory. Russia could invade Germany too and threaten to cut the gas off if anyone responds, so what? They should cut their consumption or else buy Canadian gas and stop enabling fascists.
