Strong Inference

Seeing the gamut of "bad science" and "bad statistics" that is so often accepted unquestioningly by people who are not in science (as well as people who are in science).

This is part of an excellent paper on Strong Inference written by John Platt, which I think is worth a read.

The rest of it:

http://256.com/gray/docs/strong_inference.html

 

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Just so we don't get too complacent:

The weaknesses of strong inference

http://www.ces.clemson.edu/bio/ortho/weakness of strong inference.pdf

 

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Surely ye're not suggesting that someone would lie to us, are you? No, I just can't believe that, Sam ...humans are such nice, thoughtful, kind, wonderful, compassionate, understanding and loving that none of them would or even could lie. Nope, I just refuse to believe it ....and nothing you show me will convince me otherwise!

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Baron Max

PS - too bad you post and the articles linked were so freakin' long! I was in fear of dying of old age, so I stopped reading almost immediately.

 

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Would that we could condense all wisdom onto a grain of rice!

article 1: generate and explore all possible alternative hypotheses before reaching a conclusion.

article 2: the premise of article 1 contradicts itself.

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Huh? How do you figure that's a contradiction?? I don't get it, but then I know I'm pretty stupid ....could you kindly explain it to a stupid, ol' man?

Baron Max

 

The first article written by John Platt in 1964 explores why certain fields like molecular biology show quicker results in shorter periods of time and concludes that this is because at every point the people involved generate and explore alternative hypotheses i.e. if result equals A then plan B however f result does not equal A then plan C and so forth. There is a greater amount of thinking through the process involved. In other disciplines they get bogged down by methodology, protocols, etc and lose sight of the question, hence they take longer to get to the answer. The Platt method opens up various avenues for studying a problem simultaneously.

Article 2 says that article 1 ignores various fundamentals:
1. there is no evidence that the successful sciences all use strong inference
2. It is physically impossible to come up with a finite set of alternative hypotheses
3. The systematic elimination of hypotheses is logically inconclusive.
4. The assumption that there is only one scientific method.

In other words, the author did not look at all possible alternatives.

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Oh, fine, I saw that. But it wasn't a contradiction.

But I see, and saw, what ye're talking about. But I still just can't believe that one human would lie or try to deciece another human ....that's just too hard for me to believe, Sam, I'm sorry.

Baron Max

 

It need not be intentional. For example, some scientists get so fascinated by their own hypotheses (or their possible conclusions) that they cannot conceive of alternative scenarios. There is no intent to deceive, just an inability to look outside their own framework. Sometimes this may be due to as minor a reason as inadequate background, at other times it requires a reevaluation which nullifies all the previous efforts of that scientist and hence he may unconsciously resist it until he is faced with unequivocal evidence that even he cannot refute. Meanwhile he has wasted a lot of effort, time and resources chasing rainbows. On the other hand, it may just be a wild idea that requires a few years and some more technological development before it can be feasible and the scientist attempts to bridge the gap in a shorter period which may or may not be possible (depending on how much support he gets and how revolutionary his ideas are). There are too many factors involved here.

Of course it may just be bad science or an unethical scientist. After all, they are human too.

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