Thread: BRIC+ News & comments

  1. #541
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    More details on StatOil´s east African NG discovery, mentioned in post 533 the day it was announced, as this E. African field has great impact on US being able to sell NG to others:

    "... The logging results now show that the discovery is a high impact discovery, so far proving up to 5 Tcf of gas in-place. The well has encountered 120 metres of excellent quality reservoir with high porosity and high permeability. The gas-water contact has not been established and drilling operations are on-going.

    "This discovery is the first Statoil operated discovery in East Africa and an important event for the future development of the Tanzanian gas industry. ..." From: http://news.morningstar.com/all/View...c1c9e_univ.xml
    Billy T comment:This new NG field (and some others near to Asian markets), may deliver NG to China, etc. at lower cost than even the well head production costs of US fracking NG. Just the cost of hauling train loads of sand to the fracking well may be higher. (My year old investment in UP railroad is up 50% mainly due to these card loads of sand, and transport of oil+ NG liquids in tank cars until new pipelines can be built into ND) Ocean transport of LNG is very cheap. World´s largest floating structure (an LNG Plant) is nearing completion (I think) off the Australian NW coast to exploit the very cheap NG deposit found there. The US may end up importing LNG instead of using its shale trapped NG, if EPA and local pressure, about ground water pollution add to the cost. I also bought stock in ESPH, a new non-chemical water recovery technology, now being used for a few fracking wells as cheaper and chemical free. It is up 35% in just a few months.
    Quote Originally Posted by adam2314 View Post
    " (calculator is dead) " Power Cut ???..
    No. It is cheap unit ~15 years old with no AC connections. Battery now has self discharge time of a few minutes. It has four small solar cells and lives in window that can get sun, but was cloudy when needed. I am too lazy to load in Excel when in my head I can get within 10% of correct value.

    Gustav More within the hour (link to proof etc) but quickly sugar cane based fuel is slightly carbon negative, considered only by it self. If it is displacing fossil fuel it is a huge reduction in CO2 release. Even if you clear a forest, which is storing a lot of carbon to plant the cane, in something like a decade, the forest carbon released has been off-set by the fossil fuel CO2 NOT released. From that point on in time, even a "forested-cleared-to-plant" sugar cane field makes a net reduction in CO2.

    In Brazil´s case, where for decades the world´s largest cattle herd was eating grass, AND land was so cheap that like US´s Southern cotton plantation owners, the land was not cared for. - Ranchers just moved on to a new field (for 100 years or so). Thus, there are a lot of abandoned pastures*, now over grown with weeds in Brazil. About 10 times more than the area now planted in sugar cane. I.e. area of Brazil´s sugar cane could be expanded about 10 fold before any trees need to be cut down, just by reclaiming the abandoned pasture.

    ----------------
    * When I first moved to Brazil, about 20 years ago, to live with a beautiful university professor I Had met in Mexico, I bought one of these "abandoned pastures" - about 100 acres with two small (two bed rooms in each) houses and a dammed up lake of several acres as "Plan B."

    I paid $23,000 for it, in Dollars as they were much desired back then with Brazil´s high rate of inflation. It had 10 very scrawny cows on it. (Climbing up and down the hills looking for grass to eat took the same energy as the grass gave.) For about $3500 in plowing and grass seed, in 10 years, when I sold it (Then very sure Plan B was not needed), I had 50 fat steers, that alone sold for much more** than I had paid (In part due FX changes making the Brazilian Reais, I received buy more than twice as many dollars as when I bought with dollars.)

    ** I.e. Sales price, converted to dollars, less $3500, less $12,000 (which was the 44 hour/ week field hand´s $100/ month for 10 years) was more than twice my $23,000 purchase price. The cattle make a Darwinian disadvantage to the grass. The field hand with his hoe, make an even greater disadvantage to the weeds. This is about the only care a well established pasture in Brazil needs. (Cow provides plenty of fertilizer exactly where the grass is! You may think $100 (in Reais)/ month is exploitation, but I had friction with other absentee land owners, as their field hands started asking for the same as I paid. My field hand was a local leader, very smart, but so badly educated that he could barely read and do long division. Brazil has lost a more than a generation of very talented high native intelligence people. *** (Our maid may be inherently more intelligent than I am - she quit school after fourth grade.) He never knew when I would visit the farm for a few days once or twice each month, but was always hard at work in the field when I arrived.

    *** I think surviving for more than 300 years, under despotic rule by a few rich in Brazil has made some Darwinian selection for high native intelligence, which from my observations is on average significantly higher in Brazil than in the USA. When Brazil adequately educates it population – look out - a new world intellectual leadership will arise.
    Last edited by Billy T; 02-25-12 at 08:15 AM.

  2. #542
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gustav View Post
    i say! what environmental impact does all this sugarcane have on us?
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    A field of sugar cane, grown to produce alcohol, which displaces gasoline fuel is obviously reducing the CO2 in the air annually. I.e. it preventing the release of X tons of fossil fuel carbon annually. If the field were instead a mature forest, it would be storing W tons of carbon, but not reducing the CO2 in the air every year. - It is a static system, neither adding to (assume no fires) nor reducing the CO2 in the air.

    Thus in the long term, where “long term” is more than (W / X) years, even clearing forest by fire to make field for growing cane helps limit the CO2 concentration build up in the air/ however, normally the wood of a mature forest is too valuable to just burn up. I.e. about half of the wood will end up as lumber in buildings or as furniture.

    Thus after approximately, W / (2X) years it better to replace even the mature forest with a field of growing sugar cane at least from the POV of reducing the global warming effects of man´s release of CO2.

    Does any one have numerical values for W & X ? (So we have an idea how many years is “long term.”) I would guess W / (2X) is significantly less than 20 years.
    Post at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.ph...6&postcount=16

  3. #543
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    "...Over the past two years, China has already leapfrogged competitors from Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United States to become the world's largest maker of wind turbines and solar panels. At the same time, the country is also taking steps to build more nuclear reactors and energy-efficient coal power plants.

    The frantic pace at which China is expanding its push for renewable energy reflects its commitment to the reduction of carbon emissions as it strives for a more balanced growth model that is not reliant on costly imports of fossil fuels. The government has already announced plans to increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 11.4 percent by 2015 from 8.3 percent in 2010.

    In December, the National Energy Administration, the top energy agency, said that power generated by clean-energy sources such as solar, wind, biomass and nuclear will account for energy equivalent to that produced by 480 million tons of standard coal between 2011 and 2015. ..."

    From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/us/2012...t_14691226.htm

    Billy T comment:Yes; China is making impressive progress towards "going green." - Much more so than the US or EU, but is "light years" behind Brazil. Less than 8% of Brazil electric power comes from fossil fuels (and that is clean natural gas “peaking units”). 80% is hydro-power, ~10 is crushed sugar cane (and small amount of other fibers). Nearly all its domestic cars made in the last 5 years can run on 100% sugar cane alcohol. Braskem is producing polyethylene from sugar cane alcohol (200,000 TONS / year) and soon will be producing the same tonnage of Polypropylene too in a second plant.

  4. #544
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    "... Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega as he met with his opposite numbers at a G20 meeting in Mexico said:
    ... developing nations would be happy to provide more money to ease the eurozone's debt crisis, in return for more power within the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    He also called on eurozone countries to contribute more of their own funds. This position was echoed by UK Chancellor George Osborne.

    Mr Mantega said: "Emerging countries will only help under two conditions; first that they strengthen their firewall and second for the IMF [voting rights] reform be implemented." ..." From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17170157

    Billy T comment: Don´t just come to China and Brazil with your hand out if you need help. We got the gold (large dollar surpluses in reserves), so WE make the rules. The world is changing. PS if you want a big loan, then start speaking about a permanent seat on the UN´s Security Council for Brazil.

  5. #545
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    “… China has made the first annual reduction in its holdings of US Treasury bonds in a decade. Experts are viewing the move as a sign that the country is accelerating the move away from dollar assets in search of more diversified investment channels. China has many reasons to reduce its exposure to the US dollar, such as low yields and the monetary-easing measures adopted by the US government, which could lead to inflation that could erode the value of those holdings, ...

    According to the latest monthly figures from the US Treasury Department, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds dropped for a fifth consecutive month in Dec to $1.15 trillion. China cut its holdings of US debt by $8.2 billion in 2011 compared with the previous year. It was the first time that the country had reduced its yearly holdings since 2001. ..."

    From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_14746532.htm

    This despite the net 295,456.5 million dollars of US trade surplus China took in during 2011. Thus during 2011, China invested (mainly buying companies, energy resources, raw materials, lumber and farms) 295.5 + 8.2 billion or 303.7 billion dollars.

  6. #546
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    This may be a very big deal:

    "... The supply and demand relations in the market are playing an increasing role in deciding the exchange rate of the Chinese currency, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said at a press conference on the sidelines of the ongoing annual parliamentary session.

    China swung to a trade deficit of $31.48 billion in February, the largest in a decade, as import growth far outpaced exports.

    Yi Gang, vice governor of the PBOC and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), also described the trade deficit in February as a "positive sign" for a more balanced international balance of payment for China. ..." From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_14813810.htm

    Billy T comment Not only does it confirm what I have been predicting for years that China is lowering the importance of exports (yet still expecting at least 7.5% GDP growth) as the domestic market grows in importanc in the Chinese economy; but also indicates that China is nearly ready to let the Yuan find it own value level with less need for government control - Read that as little need to buy up the flood of dollars coming to China, which in other words means little need to finance US deficits.

    I.e. as I posted at least four years ago, the day is coming when China will say:
    Go to Hell USA. We don´t need you to buy* our production so will not buy your bonds.

    ------
    * You (and EU) are broke anyway, have been for years, but in past it was in our interest to lend you the money with which to buy.

    See & read more related here: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/index.html
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-12-12 at 08:53 AM.

  7. #547
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    What I predicted at least five years ago, in this and other threads, is becoming to be true:

    “...The truth is the $31.5 billion {Chinese} trade deficit is actually a sign that things inside China are growing and that imports are becoming a more viable part of China's future than ever before. … As China's wealth rises and its internal consumption strengthens, imports are going to decouple from exports and deficits like these will be the norm. … The country is simply becoming self-sufficient, just as we did shortly before we came into our own -- summarily displacing England in the global scheme of things.’ {Billy T comment: With US and EU in absolute or relative decline, China has already become the world´s engine of growth – making rapidly increasing demand for many commodities. It will be China that "summarily displaces" the US soon.}

    China's known for sweatshops and turning out gobs of these things for markets around the world. Export growth did fall 2%, but the growth curve is still up. The drop simply means more of its products are being diverted into native Chinese markets as domestic consumption rises.
    Or take electronics and machinery. Year-over-year manufacturing for exports has dropped by 23%, falling from an 11.5% growth rate to only 8.8%. But the larger truth is that actual production is still rising. Chinese consumers are absorbing the rest. Cars, parts, blue jeans, toys, or copiers...it doesn't matter. The story is being repeated in nearly every industry in China.
    As the Red Dragon's economy accelerates and the 600 million strong middle class comes into its own, frankly we'll be lucky there's anything left to export. …” From: http://moneymorning.com/2012/03/16/f...vest-in-china/

    Billy T comment: “lucky” as if the US must make its low value added items, like shirts & shoes, etc. the cost to the American buyer will be much higher. Fortunately, for a few years after China does not supply cheap items that helped to keep US inflation low, others, like Vietnam, still will; but they too will transform into a domestic market instead of an export economy a few years later.

    Also, they already are mainly exporting their low value added items like simple industrial fans, to China, for China to install in their high value added products like cars and computers. Thus it will not be only China that tells the US & EU to go to Hell – we don´t need to export to you. You are broke anyway and can´t buy our goods except with loans from us or the FED´s printing press dollars, which we don´t want as they lose purchasing power too rapidly with the 24/7 operation of those printing presses making more than a trillion new dollars every year.

    SUMMARY: World trade, except for raw materials like coal and oil, plus some grains, etc. will be almost entirely between Asian nations, with US & EU left as insignificant players in the new world order, except for those raw material imports, which Asian, at least now, needs to import. US export of grains & coal can employ less than 5% of the US population – what do the 95+ % do to earn a living? Cut each other´s hair or make computer games etc. in competition with those from India, etc that are cheaper?

    Note my source has its own summary:
    “…Call it a huge slice of humble pie or a lesson in irony - take your pick - but America's future is in learning how to feed the dragon. …”
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-16-12 at 08:17 AM.

  8. #548
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    SUMMARY: World trade, except for raw materials like coal and oil, plus some grains, etc. will be almost entirely between Asian nations, with US & EU left as insignificant players in the new world order, except for those raw material imports, which Asian, at least now, needs to import. US export of grains & coal can employ less than 5% of the US population – what do the 95+ % do to earn a living? Cut each other´s hair or make computer games etc. in competition with those from India, etc that are cheaper?
    I recently read that a lottery winner was going to invest in making a video game. If I had that much money I would prefer investing in something that concretely adds to meeting human physical needs like battery technology which might improve power for transportation or power storage on the electrical grid.

  9. #549
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    Here is a good short economic review of Brazil: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ce-engine.html Without naming it, the article speaks a lot about the "Dutch Disease" problems Brazil still has - low value added industries have been killed, jobs lost, with the flood of FDI and commodity export earnings coming to Brazil.

    It mentions one fact I did not already know:
    Of the 163 currencies Bloomberg follows, Brazil´s Real has had the greatest increase in value during the last Decade!

    As I said here: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.ph...0&postcount=80 , I was lucky to put a lot of dollars into Reals between 19 and 15 years ago. (Not just in buying ~100 acre farm with two small houses and several acre lake on it*, but funds to live on invested in the world´s highest bank "CD" interest rates. - they were paying 23% annual nominal return at the peak but now at ~1% per month are only about double the inflation rate)

    *although I foreesaw Brazil would do well, main reason I came here was to live with beautful, smart lady professor who worked at S. America´s best university (USP). I did not know if that would work out and had sold everything in the US I owned, so the Fram was "Plan B."

    After living in her apartment for 12 years, we got worried what would happen to our assets if one died under our "common law marriage" status. Fortunately, Brazil has a type of marriage contract called (when translated) "Total separation of goods" so we married to make sure her heirs got all her her wealth and none went to mine. (She is richer than I am.)
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-17-12 at 06:33 PM.

  10. #550
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    For good review of many metals and mining see: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/71422/

    Which includes the following:

    "... China continues to retain its status as the largest steel producing country,* yielding almost half of the global output at 46%, and growing 8.9% year over year. Japan, the second largest producer country, however posted a 1.8% decline due to the earthquake. The United States remained in the third position, producing 86.2 Mt of crude steel, 7.1% higher than 2010 and comprising 6% of the total global output. ..."

    * BT notes: China is also the world´s largest importer of steel and probable will be for some time. Its infrastructure demand (new rail roads, power plants, dams and bridges, etc.) may be slowing slightly but its growing domestic market (refrigerators, washing machines, cars, etc.) is taking up any slack.
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-19-12 at 06:50 AM.

  11. #551
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    China has some 859 million mobile phone subscribers, which works out to 74.5% of the country’s population. The U.S. has 285 million phone users, so it is clear that China is a much, much bigger market.

    One out of every two text messages sent in the world is sent in China. In China, mobile phone users sent 26 BILLION text messages on the last Chinese New Year. In a single day!

    The Chinese version of “American Idol,” called “Supergirl,” generated over 700 mobile text message votes per second during its finals

    In addition to traditional calling services, China Mobile offers its 600-million-plus customers caller ID, call waiting, call forwarding, voicemail, conference calling, instant messaging and, yes, text messaging.

  12. #552
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    "... HSBC’s flash PMI, which is designed to preview the state of Chinese manufacturing before official output data are published, for China pulled back to 48.1 in March marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline for the index. The reading was close to analyst expectations but below the 49.6 level seen in February.

    Recall that readings above 50 indicate the sector is expanding while readings below 50 are indicative of contraction. ..."

    From: http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/rep...45a07b1a33f8d3

    SUMMARY: China is making rapid progress in reducing the importance of manufacturing for exports (especially to broke US & EU) and switching to more of a domestic market economy - note that with effort their GDP growth may be held down to only 7.5% but in the past, it has almost always come in at more than the offical target rate.

  13. #553
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    Also, they already are mainly exporting their low value added items like simple industrial fans, to China, for China to install in their high value added products like cars and computers. Thus it will not be only China that tells the US & EU to go to Hell – we don´t need to export to you. You are broke anyway and can´t buy our goods except with loans from us or the FED´s printing press dollars, which we don´t want as they lose purchasing power too rapidly with the 24/7 operation of those printing presses making more than a trillion new dollars every year.

    SUMMARY: World trade, except for raw materials like coal and oil, plus some grains, etc. will be almost entirely between Asian nations, with US & EU left as insignificant players in the new world order, except for those raw material imports, which Asian, at least now, needs to import. US export of grains & coal can employ less than 5% of the US population – what do the 95+ % do to earn a living? Cut each other´s hair or make computer games etc. in competition with those from India, etc that are cheaper?
    China is already into Africa's economy...so soon they will have everything that Africa has. Note that Africa size is bigger than China, Europe and USA combined. We are doing a few things in Africa. While the USA and European banks want to help, they charge too much but Chinese do not....so, let us see how it goes...

  14. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmguru View Post
    China is already into Africa's economy...so soon they will have everything that Africa has. Note that Africa size is bigger than China, Europe and USA combined. We are doing a few things in Africa. While the USA and European banks want to help, they charge too much but Chinese do not....so, let us see how it goes...
    Yes. here are some facts I gave in post 535 of this thread:

    "... China has been on a campaign to become the biggest global power in Africa, and it is succeeding. In early 2010, it was reported that China bought up half the farmland in Congo. Eastern Congo is home to vast mineral wealth. {Billy T insert: Part of how they are reducing dollars in reserves despite record trade surpluses with the US. (As I forecast)}

    China's also been after African oil reserves. It gave Angola -- OPEC's newest member -- $20 billion in reconstruction loans in 2009. In return, Angola has given China access to its oil. All told, between 2003 and 2008, Chinese direct investment in Africa has soared from $500 million to more than $8 billion... And that was before the massive loan to Angola!...
    {BT insert: Much like the deal China gave Brazil ~5 years ago I think. I.e. 10 billion dollar loan to be repaid by 20 years of 200,000 barrels of oil per day average sent to China.} ..."

    I.e. Angola will very likely, but I don´t know the details, pay the 20 billion back with 20 to 30 years of oil delivery not money. I also read recently that China is already the main trading partner of Africa. Also note for the first time ever, during the start of the "Arab spring" China put a very capable, modern crusior into the Med Sea, and evacuated some chinese, weeks before the Bits got around to thinking perhaps they should do the same for Brits in danger there. China also has many war ships off the coast of Somalia, etc. intercepting pirates and protecing Chinese shipments of oil etc.

    China has its first aircraft carrier just becoming operational (and plans for four new ones. This one is a refurbished Russian "sky jump" design.) To me it is obvious that China wants the means to insure these long term future delivery contracts are honored - they paid upfront in cash - so is building "blue water" battle groups than can "project power" inland, if need be.

    BTW, What the US is doing in Africa is on net "negative help" -I.e. with farm subsidies, huge Mid West industralized farms, etc. US agricultural corporations sell grains etc. to Africa, cheaper than local production can grow it. Thus, local farmers are being destroyed, etc. This is one activity China can not match, so for years yet, the US will be damaging the African economies. In the long run,"food aid" is a "kindness" that destroys. Instead of "teaching how to fish", the US "gives fish," so than only a few starve.
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-26-12 at 09:21 AM.

  15. #555
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    “… trading in local currencies will strike a blow at the U.S. dollar and euro as a reserve currency, increasing the role of China’s, Brazil’s India’s and even Russia’s currencies relative to the U.S. dollar and the euro. This in turn would make it even easier for these countries to sign more-favorable transactions with other parties that would have normally demanded dollars. …”
    Image may be here only a few days that China Daily allows uploads. Five presidents, lined up in BRICS´s order.
    To see image after not here, got to this link: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_14949098.htm

    Following quotes from text at that link, and it ain´t just Baloney they sliced up in Delhi. It is long term a replacement for the World Bank and the dollar as the reserve currency - Remember the golden rule: They who have the gold (actually, those who lack killing debts) rule.

    “…The leaders also decided at the New Delhi summit to examine the possibility of setting up a development bank for the bloc and other developing countries. …”
    {BT comment: they have the money and don´t like that the World Bank head is always an American, so will make their own “GB” (Global Bank, one solid as a brick with non-borrowed funds.}

    “…The five-member bloc represents 42 percent of the world's population, a quarter of its land mass and 20 percent of its economy at $13.5 trillion. …”
    {BT comment: AND rather than being deep in debt as US and EU are, they have more than 4 trillion dollars worth of cash and cash-equivalents in their reserves.}

    “…World Bank President Robert Zoellick, underscoring the importance of the emerging world's biggest economies with his own trip to India, welcomed the idea of a new development bank. "We will be looking forward to working with it to see how we can leverage one another's strengths," he said while traveling in the eastern state of Orissa, according to the Press Trust of India. "It will complement the type of work we do."
    Zoellick said the proposed bank may help India attract capital while helping China internationalize the renminbi. …”
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-30-12 at 02:17 PM.

  16. #556
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    "... China began to recognize that their savings were losing value in real terms. Beginning in 2007, they made the strategic decision to protect themselves from inflation by diversifying out of US dollar-denominated financial assets and into the hard assets she required to grow her economy.
    The volume of deals has been breathtaking, and the tempo is accelerating. According to the Heritage Foundation—which publishes the only publicly available, comprehensive dataset of large Chinese investments and contracts worldwide beyond Treasury bonds—Chinese foreign investment has gone off the charts:

    In 2007, Chinese sovereign wealth funds and state-owned enterprises bought stakes in or signed long-term contracts with at least 35 different firms, for an investment total of almost $43 billion

    In 2008, the Chinese signed at least 57 deals worth a total of nearly $74 billion

    In 2009—in the wake of the global financial crisis, and with virtually every investor in the world pulling back and hoarding cash—China signed another 76 deals worth $76 billion

    2010 was the biggest year by dollar volume: 98 separate transactions totaling $110 billion

    Last year was the biggest year by number of deals, 111 investments for $94 billion

    All told, the Chinese have spent $443 billion in nearly 400 separate ventures in every continent around the world. And yet, a simple analysis of these investments reveals a highly concentrated portfolio of holdings— actions speak louder than words, then Chinese priorities are glaringly obvious.

    Over the past few years, they have deployed fully 80% of their cash into just four sectors: energy (the lion’s share at $172 billion, or 39% of the total), metals ($85 billion or 19%), transportation ($60 billion, nearly 14%), and power ($38 billion, just under 9%). ..."

    From: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/a...You-Very-Much/

    BTW, it was about 2007 (or late 2006?) when I predicted China would do this - try to get dollars spent for real assets they would need, even with delivery up to 30 years into the future.

    You don´t suppose China´s economic advisors are reading my predictions in this thread and saying: "Hey - that is what we should do!"
    If so, expect them to announce they are backing RMB bonds with gold, for central banks only, in a couple of years,* as I have predicted too.

    * On or before Halloween 2014, as that will kill the dollar as main reserve currency, if it did not collapse on its own by debt load before then.
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-31-12 at 03:36 PM.

  17. #557
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    More moves towards domestic, rather than export economy and greater international use of the Yuan (RMB) as I predicted long ago:

    "... China accelerated the opening of its capital markets by more than doubling the amount foreigners can invest in stocks, bonds and bank deposits as the government shifts its growth model to domestic consumption from exports. ..."

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...lion-yuan.html

  18. #558
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    An interesting article regarding the size of China's economy relative to that of the US.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/...s-as-number-2/

    Excerpts:

    Those familiar with the data know that China is rapidly gaining on the United States as the world’s leading economic power. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s economy is currently about 80 percent of the size of the U.S. economy. It is projected to pass the United States by 2016.

    However, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty about these numbers. It is difficult to accurately compare the output of countries with very different economies. By many measures China is already well ahead of the United States.

    It passed the U.S. as the world’s biggest car market in 2009. In most categories of industrial production it is far ahead of the United States and it is a far bigger exporter of goods and services. The number of people graduating college each year with degrees in science and engineering far exceeds the number in the United States. And China has nearly twice as many cell phone and Internet users as the United States.

    A new study that carefully examined China’s prices and consumption patterns concluded that it is far wealthier than the widely used data indicate. According to this study, China’s economy may already be as much as 20 percent larger than the U.S. economy. Furthermore, even if its growth rate slows to the 7.0 percent annual rate that many now expect, China’s economy may be close to twice the size of the U.S. economy in the span of a decade.

  19. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by Workaholic View Post
    An interesting article regarding the size of China's economy relative to that of the US.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/...s-as-number-2/

    Excerpts:
    Thanks - Yes, a few years ago, I made post pointing that out. For example noting that a 1km taxi ride in many major Chinese cities cost only 10% of what one in NYC does. (Part of that is gasoline cost much less in China but more is the millions one must pay for the "medalion" (permit) to drive a taxi in NYC)

    Thus, this part of the Chinese GDP, is underestimated by 90%! No wonder their GDP, measured even in PP adjusted* in money, is only about half that of the US´s GDP.

    Also, when comparing GDP´s the fraction that has no lasting value (like NFL football game related expenditures, vacations costs, etc.) in the US is much, much higher. The US does not like to admit that China´s GPD, if only things of lasting value (new high speed rail systems, hydro-electric dams, apartment building for the millions moving into the cities**) are included, is already significantly greater than that of the US. I am glad some organizations with more influence than I have are finally telling it like it is but it is too late to do any good.

    Basically the US economy lives by people cutting each other´s hair (2/3 a "services economy") and on printed pieces of green paper, the world has been willing to accept for real goods, like oil, at least until now or a few years from now, when that ends. This truth is ugly, and scary, so is seldom told.

    ** The purchasing power adjustment is very crude. Does not reflect properly the minor items which make up most of the economy. It is at least as faulty as the US´s official "core" inflation rate is in reflecting the real facts of the economy. If you think either is a valid measure of the real economy, I have a bridge in NYC, I will sell you cheap.

    *China is making the greatest and most rapid urbanization in human history. Already more than half of the Chinese are urbanites - city dwellers - no longer part of the ~90% farm population of less than two decades ago!
    Last edited by Billy T; 04-06-12 at 09:20 AM.

  20. #560
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    19,937
    Here is small example of how China spends / reduces its holding of US dollars and in this case also kills US jobs (or more accurately moves them to China):

    "... The 135-year-old HPM, which began in Ohio as a maker of machinery to extract apple cider, was one of the top plastics equipment manufacturers in the United States before it ceased operations in 2009 amid the global recession.

    Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co Ltd then acquired all of its intellectual property in March last year and began production in South China. The deal included HPM's trademarks, mechanical drawings, engineering designs, customer lists and technical patents for plastic injection molding, die casting and extrusion machines. ..."

    From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_15021446.htm

    This is much like the Chinese company buying and moving to China a few years ago the (mainly) break and spark plug production division of GM (I think it was called Delco, but not sure now). China is where the auto industry is in rapid growth and often it is faster and cheaper to just buy the production machines and skills needed than to develope them.

    This "Kills two birds with one stone" - I.e. helps China reduce it holding of dollars before they crash in value and also grows Chinese jobs in new industries mainly serving the growing domestic demand. Now, to a greater extent, it will be Chinese kids playing with injected molding plastic junk instead of too broke to buy American kids.
    Last edited by Billy T; 04-11-12 at 01:22 PM.

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