A shift in the paradigm: Oil and the Arabs

[S.A.M.]

By this Tuesday, the price of oil had crested above $109 a barrel, more than doubling since 2005, and a gallon of regular was already averaging $3.22 at U.S. gas pumps with the latest price leaps yet to register. Estimates for oil at $130 a barrel this year and $150 in 2009 are now common. Something else had changed as well -- the mood of the Saudis and the leaders of many other petro-powers. Last week, OPEC officially rejected the President's entreaty to immediately increase the oil supply without even a polite nod, instead suggesting that the Bush administration was mishandling the American economy. Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, couldn't have been blunter. There was no need, he insisted, to increase global supplies by "even one barrel of oil."

http://www.tomdispatch.com/


So the Arabs are not budging anymore.

End of the oil age?

[Kadark]

Interesting story.

What happens when the Arabs continuously deny Bush's demands to increase oil supplies? Another Iraq?

[spidergoat]

They aren't increasing production because they can't. Their reserve estimates are a lie. The article doesn't even mention peak oil.

[draqon]

Arctic is what happens

[Syzygys]

They aren't increasing production because they can't. Their reserve estimates are a lie. The article doesn't even mention peak oil.

Correct. The only paradigm shift what is happening that we will finally acknowledge that the OPEC can't do shit and they don't have any cushion capacity left for regulating oil prices...

Actually, Bush (who acknwledged that there was no extra oil is SA) is in a lose-lose situation as an oilman. Finally he has to deal with reality and the reality ain't pretty... He will be very happy if the real shit hits the fan only 10 months from now...

[spidergoat]

Our only cushion is the Strategic Oil Supply, and God help us if there is another hurricane in the Gulf this year.

[cosmictraveler]

Our only cushion is the Strategic Oil Supply, and God help us if there is another hurricane in the Gulf this year.

Or oil refinery fire, or oil rig explosion or.. on and on...

[draqon]

Our only cushion is war, war for the last drops of oil on Earth, in blazing Arctic deserts

[S.A.M.]

They aren't increasing production because they can't. Their reserve estimates are a lie. The article doesn't even mention peak oil.

That may be, I was thinking more in terms of a paradigm shift in the cartel itself. OPEC has never been able to regulate oil prices because its members would not follow the production quotas required to regulate the industry.

Now it appears that they are.

Look no further than last week's OPEC meeting in Vienna. Oil ministers declined to increase production despite a fairly obvious case for doing so. Not only were oil prices fluttering just above $100 a barrel, but the United States is either in or near a reces*sion and much of the rest of the world faces a noticeable econom*ic slowdown. The OPEC ministers were unmoved. Indeed, they indicated that they might actually reduce production if weak de*mand—presumably reflecting weak economies—threatens to de*press prices. Not good.

Lower prices for gasoline, home heating oil and diesel fuel improve consumer purchasing power. They muffle inflation and in*crease confidence. In this sense, they're an important "automatic stabilizer" for a faltering economy. If the automatic stabilizer is disarmed—or, worse, transformed into an automatic "destabiliz*er"—then the slowdown or recession may get worse.

Thats way too much power in the hands of a few.

[Crunchy Cat]

http://www.tomdispatch.com/


So the Arabs are not budging anymore.

End of the oil age?

Yep. There won't be anymore supply sometime within the next 40-50 years. The world must turn to solar / quantum dots, geothermal, wind, hydro, and vegetables or its goose is cooked.

[invert_nexus]

I've heard that the estimate for the price of a barrel of oil is somewhere between $30 and $150 a barrel. I don't know how they expect the market to crash, but apparently at least some are. I heard this on NPR.

[spidergoat]

... or its goose is cooked.

Hmmm...goose grease, now there's an energy source!

[S.A.M.]

I don't know how they expect the market to crash

Oil prices will hit the trade deficit. They'll have to drop oil consumption or print money. That will hit all the markets.

Yep. There won't be anymore supply sometime within the next 40-50 years. The world must turn to solar / quantum dots, geothermal, wind, hydro, and vegetables or its goose is cooked.

The way I see it, this will have two possible effects.

1. It will make oil production from less viable sources or more difficult to access places more cost effective, creating more oil in the market

2. More funding for alternative energy research

3. Drop in oil consumption in larger consumers (car pooling, is it really necessary to go to the store now etc) Okay thats three.


Seems to me its speculation driving the market price due to OPEC's stand. So it will likely come down as it cools.

[Syzygys]

I've heard that the estimate for the price of a barrel of oil is somewhere between $30 and $150 a barrel.

This is a meaningless sentence. You either have to give a timeframe, a date, or make the range way less wide. Or did you mean the real price (productioncost) of a barrel? That changes in each location.
The Iraqi oil is one of the cheapest to produce, supposed nobody blows the pipelines up.

[Arsalan]

Interesting story.

What happens when the Arabs continuously deny Bush's demands to increase oil supplies? Another Iraq?

I dont think even Bush is stupid enough to invade Saudiland.

[Michael]

Yep. There won't be anymore supply sometime within the next 40-50 years. The world must turn to solar / quantum dots, geothermal, wind, hydro, and vegetables or its goose is cooked.

Whatever the price is we have more than enough oil today and probably for 30 years.

I'm wondering what are we going to do with another couple of BILLION more people in the next decade or two? If the West turns to using crops for energy (as it's now doing) what are all these new mouths going to eat?

[otheadp]

What happens is the world comes in to these barbaric "kingdoms" and "countries" and take the oil. That's what happens.

Who da fuck do these camel jockeys think they are that they think they can single handedly create earthquakes in western economies? They should get one thing straight: it is out of pure generosity that the west pays for that oil. With out western inventions such as flight and cars and other uses, it would still be useless, just as it had been for thousands of years (millions actually) until the west has invented uses for it, and the Arab world would still be living as bedouins with tents and camels, as it has, before the west and the east came in and gave that place some advancements from the 19th century onward. (Oh do tell me about the irrelevant, if at all true, stories about Arabs inventing math and astronomy and other things 1000 years prior).

Inflation and unemployment in the US rose by a few 1/100ths of a percent, and already CNN and the rest of the networks are whining hysterically about a recession. Believe me, there will be hysteria that would make the dirty thirties look tame by comparrison if there will be a serious oil crisis. The Arabs better not fuck with the people who invented and used the atom bomb, the Holocaust, lynching, "drawing and quartering", etc. etc.

The Arabs have an Allah-sent gift to them: oil right under their feet. All they have to do is use it fairly - sell it, yes, the west will actually pay for it - for a fair price with out using it as a political weapon, with out being the chihuahua that they are, taunting the giant bulldog.

Use that gift wisely, habibis, because once you lose it, you fucken lose it.

And don't forget to say thank you when you receive those trillions upon trillions of revenues merely for the fact that you happen to live right on top of a gold mine.

=======

Now, aside from the sabre rattling, I'd just like to know, how is it that only 2-3 years ago $60 a barrel seemed like a very high price, and now we're facing almost double that amount???

[Arsalan]

What happens is the world comes in to these barbaric "kingdoms" and "countries" and take the oil. That's what happens.

Who da fuck do these camel jockeys think they are that they think they can single handedly create earthquakes in western economies? They should get one thing straight: it is out of pure generosity that the west pays for that oil.

Generoisty? Economic earthqaukes? How about the economies of the Southern Cones completely shattered by the US supported and financed dicators like Pinochet? Pothead is indeed a fitting name Invading Saudilan or even Iran would be one of the worst decisions in a long history of bad decisions, to paraphrase someone

[Michael]

Generoisty? Economic earthqaukes? How about the economies of the Southern Cones completely shattered by the US supported and financed dicators like Pinochet? Pothead is indeed a fitting name Invading Saudilan or even Iran would be one of the worst decisions in a long history of bad decisions, to paraphrase someone

I'd just like to make the point that the USA is interested in stable trade. That's it.

also, a lot of countries have crappy dictators. the Iranians elected their crappy theocracy. the Arabs support their crappy kings from a LONG time ago, thousands of years these guys have had good and bad kings, even pre-Islam. What? Did the USA support Castro? Chavez? Mao? etc.. etc... I'm not suggesting the USA doesn't pick some losers PUT you are making a HUGE leap in suggesting these places would have anything other than some other arse hole running them.

You seem to think that if the USA just left us alone WE'D be the ones landing on the moon - it's a fantasy. People would have a crappy dictator with another name.

As the say: The more things change the more they stay the same

Michael

[otheadp]

I'd just like to make the point that the USA is interested in stable trade. That's it.

Exactly. Beware, you ungreatful chihuaha "king" from Arabistan who threatens to distabilize that stable trade oriented big bulldog, who has lavished trillions upon trillions of dollars for decades upon you, allowing you to become richer than you ever dreamed of, and enabling you and your people to build perverse structures where only 10-20 years ago there was only sand.

The arrogance of these people...