Different News Stories On Mars "asteroid 2007 Wd5"?????

**cat2only** · 01-09-08, 09:59 AM

Why the difference?

Alaska researcher changes asteroid orbit
Posted : Wed, 09 Jan 2008 04:04:24 GMT
Author : Science News Editor
Category : Science (Technology)
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ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Jan. 8 An astrophysicist at the University of Alaska uncovered the information that narrowed the odds of an asteroid hitting Mars.

Andrew Puckett, who is doing post-doctoral research in Anchorage, found archival NASA data while using the Christmas break as a working vacation, the Anchorage Daily News reported. After he supplied the information to NASA, agency scientists increased the possibility of "Asteroid 2007 WD5" striking Mars from one in 75 to one in 28.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/171121.html

AND??

By Tariq Malik

updated 5:24 p.m. PT, Tues., Jan. 8, 2008
The chances of an asteroid smacking into Mars this month are slipping away as astronomers continue to refine its course toward the Red Planet.

The space rock, an asteroid called 2007 WD5, is now expected to miss Mars by about 18,641 miles (30,000 kilometers), according a Tuesday report by NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) program office.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22562747/

Which one do I believe? 1 in 40 or 1 in 28??

**Janus58** · 01-09-08, 11:05 AM

The 1 in 28 figure is old news. The 1 in 40 figure is the lastest information.

**cat2only** · 01-09-08, 11:14 AM

Both stories were on the 8th and released the 9th.

**blobrana** · 01-09-08, 02:09 PM

Hum,
i guess www.earthtimes.org brings you the best old news.

**Janus58** · 01-09-08, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by cat2only

Both stories were on the 8th and released the 9th.

Here's an article dated from Dec 30th that is the same story as the one from earthtimes.org.

They are just late in reporting on it.

**blobrana** · 01-10-08, 08:05 AM

The latest Impact odds are now 1 in 10,000 (0.01% ), after more observations by at least 4 different observatories.

**cat2only** · 01-10-08, 11:06 AM

Correct now estimated distance is 26,000 km or 16,155.650 miles from the surface. Go figure? Older calculations had it at 18,000+ miles from the surface. These new calculations have it closer. How do the odds of impact decrease when the object is calculated to be closer???

**Read-Only** · 01-10-08, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by cat2only

Correct now estimated distance is 26,000 km or 16,155.650 miles from the surface. Go figure? Older calculations had it at 18,000+ miles from the surface. These new calculations have it closer. How do the odds of impact decrease when the object is calculated to be closer???

It's not so much due to it being closer as it is that the charted path has become longer. That makes it easier (more accurate) to project the continued path.