north korea bites the dust?

[leopold]

Washington D.C., October 26, 2006 - A CIA panel of experts concluded in 1997 that North Korea was likely to collapse within five years, according to declassified documents posted today on the Web by the National Security Archive. This "Endgame" exercise of former U.S. policymakers, intelligence officers and outsider experts warned that the North Korean regime could not remain "viable for the long term," with the majority doubting the "current, deteriorating status could persist beyond five years."
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB205/index.htm

[Baron Max]

Not much different to the many other such future predictions ...they're all just based on silly-assed guesses at best. No one can know the future, and life is just one big gamble.

If you want to post other unfulfilled guesses, you'd have a very, very long, involved post. There have been a gazillion such guesses that never came to pass.

Baron Max

[Nickelodeon]

Concluded in 1997, within 5 years? So that means 2002?

[candy]

Government sponsored panels tend to be composed of bureaucrats who regurgitate which ever policy the current administration wants to espouse.
Truth and reality are casualties of bureaucratic pandering.

[Baron Max]

Government sponsored panels tend to be composed of bureaucrats who regurgitate which ever policy the current administration wants to espouse.

Or it could be just an honest, tho' erroneous, guess! We really have very little reliable intell on such nations as North Korea and Iran, so much of the time there's little more than educated guesses based on...???

And let's all face facts ...humans do make mistakes, right? Oh, well, I don't mean YOU, of course!

Baron Max

[candy]

If you have very little intel how do reach any conclusion?
If you are going to predict something as major as the collapse of the government you should have a lot of reliable data to support that conclusion.
Government policy should not be based on wishful thinking.
With NK developing and testing nukes and missiles waiting for the regime to collapse may not be the wisest choice.

[Baron Max]

If you have very little intel how do reach any conclusion?

People do it here on the sciforums every single fuckin' day! It's easy, you just say, "I think....."

If you are going to predict something as major as the collapse of the government you should have a lot of reliable data to support that conclusion.

They had as reliable a data base as existed at the time. They made their observations and predictions based on what they had, not what they hope they had or wished they had.

Government policy should not be based on wishful thinking.

So what would you suggest? ..that they just wait to until, perhaps, they see the bombs dropping or the missiles on the way down before they make any decisions? Surely even you know better than that.

Many times, even in ordinary life, we're forced to make decisions without fully documented evidence and intell ...it's done every single day. So don't get the idea that it should all work just perfectly according to your own ideals.

With NK developing and testing nukes and missiles waiting for the regime to collapse may not be the wisest choice.

I guess you didn't read the original post! That estimate was made in 1997, for god's sake ....surely you don't think that was the last estimate that the government ever made, do you? ...and that it's being used today?????

Baron Max