Spotlight on spin

[Andre]

The other day my attention was drawn to this study draft:

Spotlight on Global Temperature

by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David Lea and Martin Medina-Elizalde

Early model predictions of global warming proved accurate,
the Pacific Ocean seems charged for a potential super-El Nino, and
global temperature is poised to reach record, perhaps dangerous, levels.

In a popular novel Michael Crichton (2004) suggests that observed global warming inferred from weather station measurements is dubious especially because of urban warming effects, and he asserts that, even if measured warming is accepted, climate model predictions made by James Hansen in congressional testimony in 1988 (based on Hansen et al. 1988) proved to be “wrong by 300 percent”. Although climate change discussion in a fictional novel might be easily dismissed, Crichton states that his references to real people are accurate. And Crichton’s views were welcomed as testimony to the United States Congress (Senate Testimony 2005) and in a personal meeting with President Bush at the White House (Barnes 2006).

We study temperature change on El Nino to paleoclimate time scales, thus addressing Crichton’s assertions in a context that we hope has broader scientific interest. We first update our analysis of global temperature change, illustrating that the global pattern of warmth in the first half-decade of the 21st century is of the nature of a real climate change, not an artifact of measurement or data processing error. We next compare observed global temperature change with the predictions of transient global climate change that were made in the 1980s. We then show the pattern of current temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and we suggest that the planet may be on the verge of a super El Nino. By comparing paleoclimate and recent data, we infer that the Earth is now warmer than at any time in the Holocene and poised to reach the warmest level in the past million years. Finally we discuss implications for dangerous human-made climate change.

As these are all trained scientists, why challenge it? Must certainly be right, right?

NOT!

Spot the spin.

[Andre]

Actually, I do hope that the study is published soon with the usual media attention: "Climate catastrophe coming quickly, the killer el nino, and it's warmer now than ever before in the last million years, a new study shows".

Perhaps that would help us back to sanity, this clear insult of the work of a few hundred honest earth scientists.

[Andre]

These scientists, for instance, would have to raise an eyebrow:

Fourtanier E and Barron J.A, 2000, . Data Report: Intra-Annual Variability of the Diatom Assemblages; Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, Vol. 169S 3AT HOLE 1034B (SAANICH INLET) NEAR 9 KA1 Bornhold, B.D., and Firth, J.V. (Eds.),

During the hypsithermal warming of the early Holocene (~10–6 ka), climatic conditions throughout much of northern North America were warmer and drier than those of the present (Pielou, 1991; Hebda and Whitlock, 1997), largely as a result of increased solar insolation, which peaked between 10 and 9 ka at 65°N (Berger and Loutre,1991). Temperatures are estimated to have been 2° to 4°C warmer than today for most of this interval, reaching a maximum between ~9 and 7 ka (Hebda and Whitlock, 1997). According to Heusser (1983) and Heusser (1985), rapid warming occurred at ~10 ka in southwestern British Columbia with summer conditions that were drier and as warm or warmer than today lasting until ~6 ka. Clague and Mathewes (1989) report that treeline elevation in the southeastern coast mountains of British Columbia reached elevations that were between 60 and 130 m higher than today between 9.1 and 8.2 ka. Thompson et al. (1993) argue that the driest conditions (period of maximum summer drought) of the Holocene were reached in western North America at 9 ka. The warmer and drier conditions of this Holocene thermal maximum were gradually replaced by cooler and wetter conditions (Hebda, 1995; Hebda and Whitlock, 1997).

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Claussen M, Kubatzki C, Brovkin V, Ganopolski A; 1999, Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the mid-Holocene, Geophysical Research Letters, 1999

During the mid-Holocene some 9 - 6 thousand years ago (ka), the summer in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere was warmer than today. Palaeobotanic data indicate an expansion of boreal forests north of the modern treeline [Tarasov et al., 1998; Texier et al., 1997; Yu and Harrison, 1996]. In North Africa, data reveal a wetter climate [Hoelzmann et al., 1998]. Moreover, it has been found from fossil pollen [Jolly et al., 1998] that the Saharan desert was almost completely covered by annual grasses and low shrubs.

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G. James West, 2003, A Late Pleistocene-Holocene Pollen Record of Vegetation Change from Little Willow Lake, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, 2003 PACLIM Conference Proceedings

Between 13,500 and 12,500 14C yr BP, the climate at Little Willow Lake was more seasonal, similar to the climates of high elevations within the Great Basin today. Conditions were warmer than today between 9,000-3,100 14C yr BP, with the warmest period between ca. 9,000-7,500 14C yr BP.

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A. P. Kershaw, K M. Strickland 1988, A Holocene pollen diagram from Northland, New Zealand, New Zealand Journal of Botany, Vol. 26: 145-152

Agathis australis was always present and had its maximum abundance from about 3500 to sometime after 3000 yrs B.P. Major changes in the vegetation and within the bog stratigraphy suggest that the climate was wetter and warmer than today before 4000 BP

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Andreev A.A. C. Siegert, V A. Klimanov, A Y Derevyagin G.N.Shilova 2002, Late Pleistocene and Holocene Vegetation and Climate on the Taymyr Lowland, Northern Siberia, Quaternary Research 57, 138–150 (2002)

Thus, Larix forests with tree Betula were widespread in the area ca. 8600–8400 14C yr ago. At that
time, the so-called Boreal thermal optimum, temperatures were 2±–3±C warmer and precipitation 75–100 mm higher than those of today (Fig. 7). Similar characteristics were obtained by an analog method based on macrofossil data (Koshkarova, 1995). According to these reconstructions TI was 4±–6±C, TVII 2±C, and summer precipitation about 80 mm higher than those at present.

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Andreev A A, P Tarasov, G Schwamborn, B Ilyashuk, E Ilyashuk, A Bobrov, V Klimanov, V Rachold, H-W Hubberten 2004a, Holocene paleoenvironmental records from Nikolay Lake, Lena River Delta, Arctic Russia, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 209 (2004) pp197– 217

Radiocarbon-dated pollen, rhizopod, chironomid and total organic carbon (TOC) records from Nikolay Lake (73j20VN, 124j12VE) and a pollen record from a nearby peat sequence are used for a detailed environmental reconstruction of the Holocene in the Lena Delta area. Shrubby Alnus fruticosa and Betula exilis tundra existed during 10,300–4800 cal. yr BP and gradually disappeared after that time. Climate reconstructions based on the pollen and chironomid records suggest that the climate during ca. 10,300–9200 cal. yr BP was up to 2–3 C warmer than the present day.

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Tarasov P/E J Guiot, R Cheddadi, Ai A. Andreev, L.G. Bezusko, T.A. Blyakharchuk, N.I. Dorofeyuk, L. V. Filimonova, V.S. Volkova, V.P. Zernitskaya, 1999 Climate in northern Eurasia 6000 years ago reconstructed from pollen data, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 171 (1999) 635–645

At 6 ka, the winters were more than 2ºC warmer than today north of 50ºN, with a high significance east of the Urals. Summers were also more than 2ºC warmer than today with a high level of confidence north of the Polar Circle and in central Mongolia. In the mid-latitudes of Siberia, in northern Kazakhstan and around the Black and the Caspian seas, 6 ka summers were significantly cooler than today.

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MacDonald, G.,. A A. Velichko, C.V. Kremenetski, O.K. Borisova, A.A. Goleva, and A.A. Andreev, S.L. Forman, T.W. D. Edwards, R. Aravena, J.M. Szeicz† V.N. Gattaulin 1999, Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change Across Northern Eurasia2000. Quaternary Research 53, pp. 302–311

Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern…..

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J. Kaiser 2005, A 70-kyr sea surface temperature record off southern Chile
(Ocean Drilling Program Site 1233) Paleoceanography, Vol. 20, PA4009,

The SSTs reach a maximum of 15.6 C in the early Holocene (~11 to 9 kyr B.P.) and generally decrease thereafter, reaching the modern SST (~14 C) in the late Holocene (Figure 3b). A warmer and drier-than-today climate over southwestern South America in the early Holocene was also recorded on the adjacent land [e.g., Massaferro and Brooks, 2002; Moreno and Leo´n, 2003; Abarzu´a et al., 2004], and even in the low latitudes, e.g., in the Huascara`n ice core [Thompson et al., 1995].

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Bush A.B.G, 2002; A comparison of simulated monsoon circulations and snow accumulation in Asia during the mid-Holocene and at the Last Glacial Maximum, Global and Planetary Change 32 (2002) 331–347

Snowfall during the mid-Holocene, however, is slightly reduced across the entire front range of the Himalaya because JJA temperatures are approximately 1.5–2 C warmer than today

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S.F. Kreitz, T.D. Herbert and J.D. Schuffert Alkenone Paleothermometry And Orbital-Scale Changes In Sea-Surface Temperature At Site 1020, Northern California Margin

sea-surface temperature (SST) estimates obtained at ~2.5-k.y. resolution from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1020 show glacial–interglacial cyclicity with an amplitude of 7°–10°C over the last 780 k.y. This record shows a similar pattern of variability to another alkenone-based SST record obtained previously from the Santa Barbara Basin. Both records show that oxygen isotope Stage (OIS) 5.5 was warmer by ~3°C relative to the present

Powers, L.A., T.C. Johnson, J.P. Werne, I.S. Castañeda, E.C. Hopmans, J.S. Sinninghe Damsté, and S. Schouten. 2005. Large temperature variability in the southern African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L08706, doi:10.1029/2004GL022014.

The role of the tropics in global climate change is actively debated, particularly in regard to the timing and magnitude of thermal and hydrological response. Continuous, high-resolution temperature records through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from tropical oceans have provided much insight but surface temperature reconstructions do not exist from tropical continental environments. Here we used the TEX86 paleotemperature proxy to reconstruct mean annual lake surface temperatures through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Lake Malawi, East Africa (9º-14ºS). We find a ~3.5ºC overall warming since the LGM,
with temperature reversals of ~ 2ºC during the Younger Dryas (12.5 ka BP) and at 8.2 ka BP. Maximum Holocene temperatures of ~29ºC were found at 5 ka BP, a period preceding severe drought in Africa. These results suggest a substantial thermal response of southeastern tropical Africa to deglaciation and to varying conditions during the Holocene.

[Andre]

Seeing the spin, perhaps then those people and many many more might also have joined the sixty signatories of this letter:

(note click at the bottom of the ad page to continue)

Open Kyoto to debate
Sixty scientists call on Harper to revisit the science of global warming

Published: Thursday, April 06, 2006
An open letter to Prime Minister Stephen Harper:

Dear Prime Minister:

As accredited experts in climate and related scientific disciplines, we are writing to propose that balanced, comprehensive public-consultation sessions be held so as to examine the scientific foundation of the federal government's climate-change plans. This would be entirely consistent with your recent commitment to conduct a review of the Kyoto Protocol.....cont'd

[Andre]

But then again, there is a problem with global warming, it has stopped in 1998

[Andre]

Times seem to be getting tough for Doctor Hansen Honeydew of Muppet Lab.. where the past is being made today.

[Skylark]

Please tell me you spotted the spin in the first paragraph of Bob Carter's Telegraph opinion piece.

[Andre]

Excellent catch, Skylark, indeed he may have been thinking of the MSU2LT data from 1998 until last year.



How devious of him. He should have taken the very last data (source)

And then of course he is blatantly wrong;



attempting to bury a horrible warming trend of 0,0031 degrees per year. The villain.

Much worse than killing a couple of degrees of the Holocene Thermal Optimum of course.

Edit: I see that the link to the MSU2LT data on that page is broken. But here it is: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

[Andre]

How lethal would be that spinning? I mean, how many children commited suicide because they have been conned into thinking that there was no hope for the future. Does scaremongering kill? If so, I do hope that we rerun the Neurenberg trials as soon as this AGW frenzy is over.

[Skylark]

Why start at 1998 for his analysis?

A) It's the most reasonable starting point for assessing real trends in global data and was picked before he even looked at the data

B) Its the warmest year on record and the slopes of linear regressions being biased towards the ends will give him the evidence to surport his pet hypothesis

Is it a priori (A) data analysis or post hoc (B) cherry-picking data analysis?

[Andre]

Here is some cherry picking data analysis. I present a major global warming spin which is clearly refutable and here we are diverting to a straw man about 1998 not being allowed for start point bias while it has been an excellent end point bias year for the hockeystick.

Anyway exactly the same discussion is going on here, we can copy paste each side of the debate. Count and compare the fallacies.

[Andre]

In the mean time perhaps reread the second paragraph of the spotlight article:

In a popular novel Michael Crichton (2004) suggests that observed global warming inferred from weather station measurements is dubious especially because of urban warming effects, and he asserts that, even if measured warming is accepted, climate model predictions made by James Hansen in congressional testimony in 1988 (based on Hansen et al. 1988) proved to be “wrong by 300 percent”. Although climate change discussion in a fictional novel might be easily dismissed, Crichton states that his references to real people are accurate. And Crichton’s views were welcomed as testimony to the United States Congress (Senate Testimony 2005) and in a personal meeting with President Bush at the White House (Barnes 2006).

So if you read this where would you expect it published? I'd say in the "letters to the editor" in the political section of newspaper. What does this have to do with science? If it was in a psychological case study perhaps. Nothing in this section proposes to explain or explains or contributes to explain any natural phenomenon. it only explains why it was necesary to attempt and assassinate the Holocene thermal optimum, and perhaps the Medieval Warm Period. Which would be the second attempt after the conspiracy of Jonathan Overpeck in 1997 and MBH99. 100% politics 0% science.

Perhaps a very accurate observation of Hans Von Storch and Nico Stehr:

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/vo...ged_angst.html

For there is indeed a serious problem for the natural sciences: namely, the public depiction and perception of climate change. Research has landed in a crisis because its public actors assert themselves on the saturated market of discussion by overselling the topic.

And hence stealing the future of our children

[Andre]

Here the ideas of somebody who has been characterized as the worst enemy of mankind by the global warmer character murderers:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220

Climate of Fear
Global-warming alarmists intimidate dissenting scientists into silence.

BY RICHARD LINDZEN
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

There have been repeated claims that this past year's hurricane activity was another sign of human-induced climate change. Everything from the heat wave in Paris to heavy snows in Buffalo has been blamed on people burning gasoline to fuel their cars, and coal and natural gas to heat, cool and electrify their homes. Yet how can a barely discernible, one-degree increase in the recorded global mean temperature since the late 19th century possibly gain public acceptance as the source of recent weather catastrophes? And how can it translate into unlikely claims about future catastrophes?

The answer has much to do with misunderstanding the science of climate, plus a willingness to debase climate science into a triangle of alarmism. Ambiguous scientific statements about climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm, thus raising the political stakes for policy makers who provide funds for more science research to feed more alarm to increase the political stakes. After all, who puts money into science--whether for AIDS, or space, or climate--where there is nothing really alarming? Indeed, the success of climate alarmism can be counted in the increased federal spending on climate research from a few hundred million dollars pre-1990 to $1.7 billion today.....cont'd