Thread: China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

  1. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Roam View Post
    Or a government paid propagandist, or did you think of that?
    No, but I think China is not very concerned with me and what I may write pro or con China here at sciforums. Certainly not enought to pay some Chinese person to agree with me. Do you think I am so important that there is the "watch Billy T" division of the foreign information control agency?

    BTW, How do you know I am not paid by China to post about their progress? Did you ever think about that?

  2. #862
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    I said:
    “For them "freedom" is much more about having a full stomach and place to sleep than the right to openly tell the government to go to hell. Which “freedom” is more essential? How do you compare? ”

    I did not intend to offer any choice between these two freedoms to Americans. Americans have both; but for many Chinese just having a dependably full belly is relatively new.

    Yup, Billy, USA is the land of milk and honey

    Hunger in American households has risen by 43 percent over the last five years, according to an analysis of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data released today. The analysis, completed by the Center on Hunger and Poverty at Brandeis University, shows that more than 7 million people have joined the ranks of the hungry since 1999.

    The USDA report, Household Food Security in the United States, 2004, says that 38.2 million Americans live in households that suffer directly from hunger and food insecurity, including nearly 14 million children. That figure is up from 31 million Americans in 1999.


    Keep in mind 38 millions of the hungry despite apparent abundance (if you've got $10 to spare) of processed, tasteless (salt, pepper&sugar aside) shit for food the working class Americans normally consumes.

  3. #863
    It's kind of funny. 40 years ago a Chinese would probably be in trouble for mentioning the word "Capitalism" (maybe seriously so) and now the world depends on Chinese to save Capitalism!! AND .... they are trying to do so!!!

    Talk about a 180

  4. #864
    The Chinese government has a ways to go, but the important thing is that they are relatively stable. Unfortunately, they are a very conservative government. Until they have made more room for creativity and innovation, they are unlikely to become as fast-moving as Western Europe.

    They were very gutsy to implement their one-child policy, but that's the only really innovative thing they've done in a while. Even then, their overcrowding problem is really a bit too significant to ignore.

    By the way, every Chinese child grows up learning the same facts of life that American children are raised on: they have the greatest government in the world, and all of the other countries are misguided for not being more like them. It's a crock of shit, but every American and Chinese teenager ranks it up there with the world being round and the Earth going around the Sun.

    If anything, we should all follow France. They're really the only country in the world that has figured out how to keep their government from sucking blistered testicles. However, their former national idiot is a stubborn, arrogant, jingoistic ninny. Intelligent, young French people should go around speaking English and dressing as Anglophiles just to rub it in his nose. How an otherwise intelligent, forward-looking culture elected such a poo-poo head, I know not. And don't try to speak English with an American accent. It sounds awful. Honestly, at least with British English (not Cockney), we can't tell how badly you're fucking it up.
    Last edited by Alien Cockroach; 09-08-09 at 05:19 AM.

  5. #865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael View Post
    ... 40 years ago a Chinese would probably be in trouble for mentioning the word "Capitalism" (maybe seriously so) and now the world depends on Chinese to save Capitalism!! ...
    Here is some evidence of that (from today's reports):

    "... China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that China's domestic auto sales could exceed 10 million units in the first 10 months of this year--well ahead of sales in the U.S. despite its "Cash For Clunkers" incentive program. ... Geely Automobile leaked to the press that its holding company and a cash-rich state-owned partner want to acquire the Swedish car brand Volvo from Ford Motor. The news made Geely the latest potential Chinese big spender in the international car market after SAIC Motor, GM's joint venture partner in China, was reportedly in talks with luxury sports car maker Koenigsegg to purchase a stake in Swedish Saab Automobile.

    Geely's potential bid for Volvo was made public on the same day South Korea's largest auto company Hyundai Motor and its Chinese partner announced plans to build their third plant in China ..."

    From: http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/09/chi...ews_newsletter

    Billy T comment: Not mentioned above is that still another Chinese company is trying to buy the Hummer plant, lock stock and barrel, but that has militray uses and many not go. Also China frowns on gas gugglers - is world leader in placing electric hybride cars on the road ~250,000 this year added to the fleet. It would not be the first US car related plant to be shipped to China. About a year ago the bankrupt break fractory of GM's spun off Delco parts company was sold to a Chinese firm. They have "buckets of money," not debt, with which to buy real assets and are doing so to lessen their exposure to a falling dollar in their reserves.

    Also today:
    "... Wall Street attempts to finish the week on a positive note. Investor sentiment is receiving a boost from a flood of positive economic data from China, where industrial output rose 12%, new loans increased, and retail sales climbed 15%. ..."

    From: Schaeffer's Opening View <enews@schaeffer.com> Email with title:
    "Solid Chinese Economic Data Lifts Wall Street's Spirits"
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-11-09 at 09:32 AM.

  6. #866
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo Roam View Post
    Or a government paid propagandist, or did you think of that?
    Nobody is paying me to do anything. I am not even interested in politics or economy, or any other complicated things. I just want to thank Billy T and that’s about it. I don’t understand why would you want to make things more complicated than they really are. Not everything has a dark side. It must be very sad to be you.

  7. #867
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    Brazil’s economy expanded 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, … Six straight months of job growth, coupled with tax breaks and record low borrowing costs, are driving consumer spending, … Entrepreneurs are starting to realize demand growth is sustainable and will resume investment plans, which will also contribute to growth. …

    Brazilian stocks gained today for a sixth straight day fueled by signs that consumer spending the global economy are recovering. … The yields on the overnight interest-rate futures due January 2011, … rose 1 basis point to 9.68 percent. Spending by Brazilian families increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, … Brazil’s economy is rebounding faster than in most countries because of the strength of the domestic market …

    Brazil’s industrial production rose in July for a seventh straight month as companies restocked inventories to meet demand primed by tax breaks on cars, electronics and construction materials. As a result, retail sales growth quickened to 5.1 percent in the April-June period from 3.7 percent pace in the first quarter. … With worker income growing, and the biggest impact from interest-rate cuts still to be felt, consumer spending should post further gains even as fiscal stimulus measures are phased out, … “There’s other stuff in the pipeline, so sales won’t collapse,” …

    Since July, forecasts for economic growth next year have steadily risen to 4 percent from 3.5 percent, according to a weekly central bank survey of about 100 economists. … Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Brazil’s largest private bank, yesterday raised its forecast for growth next year to 4.8 percent from 4.3 percent.

    FROM: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aW4_EiynchtM

    About China:
    BTW China is now Brazil's most important trading partner, no longer the US. The Chinese / Brazilian trade is soaring and that of both with the US is falling, rapidly now with the fall of the dollar as American can not aford to import as much and US has decreasing less of what China wants to buy (Raw materials, energy supplies) except for food stocks but they are generally available cheaper from others. E.g. wheat from Canada and 6 months later from Argentina when it is making the fall harvest. China and Brazil's Embaraer have for more than two years now been making short haul (up to 120 seats) airplanes in join owned Chinese plant. Just a few day ago China showed off model of new larger Plane. - I.e. China does not need much of US technology now. China sent men into orbit and probe into orbit of the moon a couple of years ago without US help. Was world's first to start nationwide vaccination of population with Chinese developed swine flu vaccine. (It has been tested in the West and works safely). Etc.

    The Chinese are smart, hard-working people, now with what may be a better economic system than used in the west. (Market place determines what consumer goods are made & Government builds the needed infrastructure.) Napoleon noted years ago that the world would tremor when that sleeping Chinese Dragon was awakened. - IMHO, he was correct.
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-11-09 at 10:14 AM.

  8. #868
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    More on China, graphically below and in next post.



    For a comparison of US vs. many other countries recovery / GDP etc. See:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.ph...&postcount=173
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-12-09 at 12:20 PM.

  9. #869
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    See prior post 868 for graphical data for many countries on GDP growth, reserves to GDP ratio, and debt as % of GDP.
    All showing how far China is ahead of other countries, except other "BRICs" Brazil, Russia India and Japan & Korea.

    “Electricity demand is a perfect indicator of GDP growth. Where electricity demand is growing, so is GDP. Where GDP is growing, so is demand for electricity.
    Right now, China's electricity supply is growing every year at a rate equal to the entire energy production of the United Kingdom!
    In fact, The World Energy Outlook estimates that 45% of the growth in the world's energy demand will come from India and China! The price tag? $10 trillion.
    This chart from the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration says it all:
    Obviously the right two stacks are projections (which I bet China beats.)*
    In short, China is going to be growing bigger and faster than anyone else for the next two decades at least. …”
    Quote & graphs from: http://www.oxfonline.com/MMR/MMR0809...l=46750&r=Milo

    For a comparison of US vs. many other countries recovery / GDP etc. See:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.ph...&postcount=173

    -----------------------------------
    *Because China has greater percentage of it GDP as stimulus and plans to get 20% of electric power from renewable sources by 2020. China is world's largest maker of solar cells and just announced it will build many central solar cell power plants in Mongolian desert. There the cost / square mile is more important than efficiency so will use US-based First Solar's cheaper Cadmium solar cell technology. The just let contract is for 10 billion and collector will be as large as Manhattan Island is!

    First Solar, will build a new production plant in China and China will get the cadmium technology too. The graphical projections were made BEFORE this information was known and also before China decided to double its investments in non-fossil energy supplies. China is buying and installing more commercial scale wind generators than the rest of the world combined! It will need more electric power due not only world's most rapid growth, but also the rapid (~250,000 this year) of electic hybrid cars being added to the nation's fleet. China is locating these wind machine power parks either near solar plants (to use the same transmission lines, especially on cloudy days) or near hydro-electric plants (They server as "free storage" for night time power - i.e. when solar can carry the load, little water is released from the Dam.) There is one being built near the world's largest hydro-electric dam of the same peak power capacity. It is called: "Three Gorges on Land."
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-12-09 at 01:47 PM.

  10. #870
    We're under no illusions.
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    Relating to Billys post above.


    Environmental Scientists Estimate That China Could Meet Its Entire Future Energy Needs By Wind Alone

    ScienceDaily (Sep. 11, 2009) — A team of environmental scientists from Harvard and Tsinghua University demonstrated the enormous potential for wind-generated electricity in China. Using extensive metrological data and incorporating the Chinese government's energy bidding and financial restrictions for delivering wind power, the researchers estimate that wind alone has the potential to meet the country's electricity demands projected for 2030.


    Rest of article:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0910142350.htm

  11. #871
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    A sampler of current Chinese business activity:

    The government will subsidize 50 percent of investment for solar projects as well as relevant transmission and distribution systems that connect to grid networks. For independent photovoltaic power generating systems in remote regions that have no power supply, the subsidy will rise to 70 percent, the ministry said in an announcement on its website.

    To become China's largest international energy port, the zone plans to expand its oil throughput to 100 million tons by 2012 and build five oil berths and new docks capable of handling 300,000-ton vessels and LNG carriers. Covering 70.9 sq km, the free trade zone is designed for integrated development of shipping, ports and modern logistics. Five auto parts manufacturing centers will also be established in the free trade zone for engine assembly, chassis, interior fabrication, on-board electronics and other components.

    From 2002 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of the 10 kinds of nonferrous metals' output is 16.4 percent, (China is now) ranking the first in 10 kinds of nonferrous metals' output for 7 years.{The Chinese have ~95% of global production for all rare earths and about 99% of dysprosium and terbium, and 95% of neodymium. China has reduced the amount of rare-earth metals that could be exported, and plans to reduce exports further by an additional 8.1% this year. By restricting exports, China would force companies that need these rare earths to relocate production to China -- accelerating the transfer of intellectual property to Chinese companies. Chinese production is projected to reach 160,000 metric tons a year by 2015 or so. That would be up from 139,000 tons in 2008. But global demand is projected to rise even faster, resulting in an annual shortfall of 40,000 tons by 2015. (higher prices) Makers of hybrid batteries must pay these prices because substitution is out of the question. Neodymium and praseodymium are essential for magnets of all light weight electric motors. A hybrid car needs a few pounds in drive motors and ~25 smaller electric motors throughout the vehicle. A typical large wind machine needs about 20 pounds of Chinese controlled rare earths and China is an important source of Lithium for the Li-ion batteries. Other rare earths such as cerium, yttrium and europium are used in liquid crystal display screens and in polishing glass.}

    At present, the world has a total of around 10,700 kilometers operational high-speed rail, including about 2,000 kilometers in Japan and about 1,900 kilometers in France. China will build 42 high-speed passenger-rail lines with a total length of 13,000 kilometers in the three years to come. (“high-speed”= >200Km/hour)

    China Railway Materials Commercial Corp has agreed to pay A$39.8 million ($34 million USD) to buy … 11.4 percent stake in United Minerals Corp and a 12 percent stake in FerrAus Ltd, the two Australian companies said yesterday. In a separate move, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co Ltd … will buy up to 70 percent of Energy Metals for A$1.02 per share and underwrite a 1-for-9 rights issue by the Australian firm at 90 cents a share. CITIC Resources Holdings, China's sixth-largest oil producer by output, aims to buy oil and resource assets in Central Asia, Africa and China. It has oil assets in Kazakhstan, Indonesia and the Hainan-Yuedong Block in China and about 554.8 million U.S. dollars of cash on hand. {More conversion of dollar reserves into real assets, none here as big as the occasional 10+ billion buys, but a billion every week soon adds up.}

    CNOOC Ltd. said Monday that a gas field of the company in the South China Sea has commenced production with a current daily output of 30,000 cubic feet. The gas field, dubbed as Ledong (LD) 22-1, … is expected to reach around 150 million cubic feet a day. Natural gas from the field and also from LD 15-1, another CNOOC field 20 km away from LD 22-1, will be piped to customers, including refinery plants, chemical plants and city gas, in south China's Hainan Province. {Why China is enforcing its claims of economic exclusion zone in the S. China Sea.}

    All above except { comments } and blue text, which is mainly from Juback’s Journal, are from article links in the current business section of: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/

    SUMMARY: Napoleon's sleeping Chinese Dragon has awakened and is breathing fire.
    Question is will it cook and eat the American goose or help it lay more golden eggs?
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-13-09 at 12:35 PM.

  12. #872
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    Low cost Chinese

    The third ARJ21-700 jet, China's self-developed regional jet,* had its first trial flight successfully on Saturday (yesterday, 12Sept09) in Shanghai. ARJ-21, short for "Advanced Regional Jet for the 21st Century," features safety and low price.
    The first homegrown ARJ-21 jet, with 90 seats, rolled off the production line in Shanghai Aircraft Manufacturing Factory on Dec. 21, 2007.

    According to plans, the ARJ21 regional jet should secure domestic airworthiness qualification by the end of 2010 and that authorized by the FAA by 2012. {The Chinese} home-made commercial plane in China had so far received 208 orders from home and abroad,
    including 25 ordered by the GE Commercial Aviation Services, the largest aircraft-leasing company of the United States.

    From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90...1/6755918.html

    ------------------------
    *Billy T doubts it was all Chinese development. Probably a lot of technology stolen from Brazil's Embaraer, which has joint construction effort with Chinese company Hainan in Harbin China for about three years, building slightly smaller (50 seat ERJ 145) planes, with many parts shipped from Brazil. Last month Hainan cancelled 25 planes (half the planned production) and only 11 planes have been made in China. More at: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...nal-sales.html
    {The cancellation is more because China is growing so fast and so many Chinese are becoming very rich now that 50 seat planes do not carry enough to be worth their landing slots except at the smaller airports. -The 120 seat ERJ 195 may be made instead, but probably the new, same-size, plane in photos above will be preferred by the Chinese once it is availaqble assuming (quite possibly not true) that the Chinese market doesn not need all that both factories can produce.}

    US's First Solar just signed large contract to build Manhattan Island sized central solar cell power plant in Mongolian dessert, using First Solar's cheaper (but less efficient) Cadmium solar cell technology. First solar will build new cell production factory in China and I predict be asked to go home when China has stolen the technology. - That is how "Chinese technology transfer" seems to work.

    Note the blue text in post 871. China will probably restrict the export of the critical rare earths used in light weight, strong, magnets (essential for large wind generators and electric cars) and dominate these areas globally too as makers are forced to build factories in China to have access to the essential rare earths. Note also in post 871 the second paragraph about new free trade port to have five auto parts / assembly areas.

    China knows how to be a ruthless Capitalist now. One even John D Rockefeller would admire!

    PS If you want to know what is moving the world economically, especially in energy and automotive fields, read the business section of the people's daily, daily. - I do and only occasionally the WSJ.
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-14-09 at 01:02 PM.

  13. #873
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    {post 848] MADE 6Sep09}... (from Singapore Straight Times, SST): ExxonMobil Corp had inked a deal to sell liquefied natural gas from its share of an LNG project in Australia to PetroChina in a deal worth about A$50 billion (S$59 billion). … The agreement is Australia's largest ever trade deal with China, the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Two-way trade last year was worth US$53 billion....{The project, located near Barrow Island 30 miles off Austrailia’s north-west coast, is expected to produce 40 trillion cubic feet of gas during the 20 years of the contract. Australia is going to process and ship some 15 million metric tons of LNG fuel each year. Development of the project is expected to create 6,000 jobs initially, with another 3,000 to follow.} ...
    Just in case you do not read the Singapore Straight Times, , here 8 days later Bloomberg reports this last weeks "news" - I.e. I scooped bloomberg again, by a week this time!(and with more detailed information):

    "... Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. and its partners approved development of Australia’s Gorgon project, clearing the way for a venture forecast to earn A$300 billion ($258 billion) in gas sales to China, India and Japan in its first 20 years.
    The project will cost A$43 billion in its first phase, with construction of a liquefied natural gas plant to start immediately on Barrow Island, a nature reserve off the northwest coast, 50 percent-owner and operator Chevron said in a statement today on the Gorgon LNG Web site. LNG exports from the 15- million-metric-ton-a-year venture are due to begin in 2014. ..."
    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aySpwMUm46PM

  14. #874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    *Billy T doubts it was all Chinese development. Probably a lot of technology stolen from Brazil's Embaraer, which has joint construction effort with Chinese company Hainan in Harbin China for about three years, building slightly smaller (50 seat ERJ 145) planes, with many parts shipped from Brazil.
    That and/or Bombardier (the other big regional jet maker), who also has similar production deals in China.

  15. #875
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    Quote Originally Posted by quadraphonics View Post
    That and/or Bombardier (the other big regional jet maker), who also has similar production deals in China.
    Yes. Bombardier was in China with deal several years before Embaraer, but that deal when sour and Bombardier left entirely only to come back again after Embaraer showed how. As I recall in Bombardier's original deal they had no significant Chinese partner and imported almost all the parts. China keep upping the duties on those imports trying to force domestic producion and relations went to hell between them

    Now these two companies basically divide the world's need for intermediate range large (<150 seats) planes. All of Embaraer's are all jets but I think Bombardier uses turbo-props still - not sure. I has been some years since I investiged them - if you know I would be interested. Both have accused the other of illegal government aid (government paid research when Embaraer was owned by the government and Canadian low interest financing of buyers for Bombarier, mainly.

    In interest of full disclosure - I have owned stock in Embaraer for many years and am now worried by the "pure Chinese" efforts seen in my post with the two photos of China's new ARJ21.
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-14-09 at 07:23 PM.

  16. #876
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    Here is probably the original report the blue text in post 871 about Chinese control of the rare earth metals came from:

    See: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/bu...radsher&st=cse

  17. #877
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    China has come a long way, baby:

    Image 5 of today's People's Daily.

    15 of 17 finalists in the Miss Silk Road contest. Wonder if other two were "influencing" male judges? - Naw, probably not that Americanized yet. Next year, maybe?
    Last edited by Billy T; 09-16-09 at 08:39 AM.

  18. #878
    We're under no illusions.
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    China,China & China,It used to be USA,USA & USA.China is nearing # 1 in almost everything.China will soon out do us in solar energy use and continue up with solar, while the US stagnates on solar.Just my opinion.

    Article:September 09

    China to build largest solar plant:

    Website:http://tinyurl.com/lr5576


    PV power plant capable of powering over 3 million Chinese homes being developed.

    China will soon possess the world’s largest photovoltaic power plant, which will have the capacity to power up to 3 million Chinese homes with a whopping 2000MW of solar electricity. The $6 billion power plant will be constructed by US-based First Solar and construction is expected to commence next year.

    The project will be developed in different phases as the agreement between Chinese government and First Solar calls for ground to be broken on the first 30MW phase by June 1, 2010, which will be followed by a second 100MW phase and 870MW additions to be completed by the end of 2014. A final phase comprising of additions totaling 1000MW is expected to be online by the end of 2019.

  19. #879
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-Man2 View Post
    ...China to build largest solar plant: Website:http://tinyurl.com/lr5576 PV power plant capable of powering over 3 million Chinese homes being developed.

    China will soon possess the world’s largest photovoltaic power plant, which will have the capacity to power up to 3 million Chinese homes with a whopping 2000MW of solar electricity. The $6 billion power plant will be constructed by US-based First Solar and construction is expected to commence next year.

    The project will be developed in different phases as the agreement between Chinese government and First Solar calls for ground to be broken on the first 30MW phase by June 1, 2010, which will be followed by a second 100MW phase and 870MW additions to be completed by the end of 2014. A final phase comprising of additions totaling 1000MW is expected to be online by the end of 2019.
    More First Solar deal details, including why China is "buying American" when China is world's largest maker of solar cells, in post 869's footnote as 869 is mainly about Chinese electric needs and growth.

  20. #880
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    China has come a long way, baby:
    Image 5 of today's People's Daily.

    15 of 17 finalists in the Miss Silk Road contest. Wonder if other two were "influencing" male judges? - Naw, probably not that Americanized yet. Next year, maybe?
    One of them seems a little out of place (the one without skinny chicken wing arms).

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