Reasoning: "A man does NOT study medicine, qualifying, become a specialist in eye care and then go on to order/launch a chemical weapons attack against his own people" We have two main players I believe worth serious consideration. The President. Bashar al-Assad Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! A qualified Medical Doctor who specializes in eye care His brother. Maher al-Assad Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Commander of elite units of the Syrian armed forces. Business man with reputation for shady dealings. Who probably has a vested commercial interest in Syrian oil production and control. re: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maher_al-Assad There is also unconfirmed information from a German Intelligence/Security service that Bashar did not order the chemical weapons attack. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/08/syria-chemical-weapons-not-assad-bild To me everything suggests that the brother Maher al-Assad, may have ordered the chemical weapons attack AGAINST the wishes of the President, Bashar al-Assad, and due to tight family loyalty and "enmeshment" issues is now being protected by his Presidential brother. With even the possibility of violent threats against the presidents immediate family by his own brother, if the President declared the truth about what exactly is going on in Syria. I tend to believe that the revolution is more about throwing off the shackles of a Mafia style extortion racket led by Maher [thus a war about crime] than that of the pursuit of political freedom. qu: "What happens when the military [conscripted - not volunteer] is under the control of a "Mafia style" syndication? What say you? Is the above Feasible?
You should probably post this over at the "Syrian roundup thread": http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...Revolution-quot-A-Farce-from-Beginning-to-End. In a side note, I did a search for "107mm syria ghouta" or something the other day and SF popped out as the #1 search result.
I would have except the OP of that thread was approaching the subject very differently... If the moderator feels it best to move it to that thread then I am ok with that...
It is likely elements are rogue. Estimates of 70K have left the army and joined the FSA. There is little doubt in my mind that rebels would love (and need) people on the inside. Covert supporters of the uprising. Intelligence from the inside. Maher al-Assad is a son of a bitch for sure. Quite capable of this kind of action however, he is also in contact with his brother and would have been told why not to go ahead with CW. One needs only to look at Libya and the deaths of not only Gaddafi, but of his sons after that particular overthrow of a government. Maher is well aware of this. http://news.yahoo.com/lingering-doubts-over-syria-gas-attack-evidence-072755287.html While yahoo news is not the most prudent news outlet, there are very good points in the article regarding lingering doubts. And Obamas address to the nation last night did not produce the evidence. http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_new...of-president-obamas-remarks-on-syria#comments And honestly, with the corrupt way our own government has been operating against its own citizens, I cannot trust any future evidence without confirmation from an independence source. What corruption? Parallel construction. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_construction
From a possible solution point of view, knowing that Maher may be directly responsible and may have been "standing over" his brother for his entire presidency , making Bashar no more than a secret puppet for Maher's machinations would change the way the USA would approach any intervention it may consider IMO. If and I mean "if" there is evidence Maher is effectively leading a syndication, a criminal network [Mafia style] using the conscripted military to pursue his "stand over tactics" for years, then the approach to intervention by the USA is simplified I feel. It is no longer an intervention against the sovereignty of a nation but an major action against organized crime in Syria/Lebanon/Afghanistan. The fact that Bashar studied medicine and became a specialist in eye care, stands out, as it would be totally against his nature to use chemical weapons in any form especially against his own people. He is a doctor and was "drafted" into his role as President in lue of Maher, possibly so that he could act as "the moderate" front man for Maher's historical and ongoing illegal and nefarious activities. [ to continue his Fathers legacy whether he liked it or not.] Arabic traditional family enmeshment and loyalties would have forced Bashar to allow his brother to act using Bashar as a cover. Death would be the result if he did not. If this is the case then Bashar and his immediate family are most likely being held hostage to Mahers control. This is my current assessment and I am concerned that the USA may not have considered the implications of "organized crime" at such a scale before. One of the first things I would do, if possible, is remove the financial motive for Maher and the Assad family and temporarily organize the seizure of all assets including cash and property held abroad until the situation in Syria becomes clear. "Pie in the sky" maybe, but a hell of a lot cheaper than going to war. Money and the "keeping of terrible secrets" would be his (Maher's) prime motive after all... He, Maher, certainly is not fighting to save the Presidency or for political reasons IMO.
First to address assets issue please review this link: http://www.sanctionswiki.org/Syria Second, Russia has its own issues with organized crime. Plenty of trouble. I highly doubt Maher has that kind of dominance over his brother and the russians unaware. 3rd an issue of organized crime is an internal issue and not a national security of the USA issue. See #2. Sorry but that pipeline keeps bugging me. Who stands to benefit from an overthrow of Assad? Syria refused to put in the pipeline that would have allowed OPEC nations to get into Russias Euro market, but apparently approved a pipeline to allow Iran's gas to be exported. http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ack-war-intervention-oil-gas-energy-pipelines Again, reflect back on what happens to the family of disposed dictators. Where are Saddams sons now? Gaddafi? All of the Assad family is fighting for their lives now and have seen what happens when outsiders (US, UK, etc) get involved. So who benefits from a chem attack? Again a quote from the Yahoo article: Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice... I am not ready to commit any of our forces to this fight. I do not trust the powers that be to do anything for the 'good of mankind'. Its Always all about the money. And we have a pipeline simmering in the background.
Ah the old tactic of turning the enemy against each other. eh. To me everything suggests that the West needs a new scapegoat since proof of chemical attack by Assad was not found.
After thinking on this over night I have a very strong feeling that the USA and it's allies are being played the fool by those with a vested interest in seeing the USA over extend/commit itself as it has in Afghanistan and Irak. I also have a strong feeling that it stems from elements of the old Soviet regime. Who ever launched the gas attack knew full well that it would invoke USA, with it's sometimes over the top "self righteous" attitude, into wishing to intervene and expend resources on this other wise internal conflict. There are a number of salient clues being presented that point to the leaderships of both Syria and Russia that would indicate that they are and have been acting under external influence and are under duress. Clue #1: USA President calls Russian President a "Dick" at the G20 conference and all the Russian President could offer as a retort was that "he wrestles with bears". This event is remarkable for a number of reasons. That it happened. That the USA president used slang at a G20 conference in front of world media and all other nations present. Russian President response was inappropriate, and extremely weak. Media reporting , political assessment of a serious attack against the esteem of Russia etc was/is seriously lacking. Probably most importantly, no public apology was offered by the USA president for his candid/impulsive and VERY public comment. [To the Russian peoples] The lack of a public apology has gone largely unreported in the mass media Clue #2: Then almost impulsively Russia offers the "Seize Syria's "illegal" note emphasis on the word Illegal, arsenal of WMA's by capitalizing on an off the cuff comment by a USA representative. And what is most interesting is that Syrian President and some officials have welcomed the seizure of their "illegal" stockpiles of WMA's thus condemning them selves to the international laws associated with the keeping and use of WMA's. [which are probably able to be proved to be manufactured/supplied with Russian support] These events are totally out of character and rather extraordinary IMO. So my guess after looking at all these clues being deliberately dropped that the USA is being played a fool and both Bashar, and Putin know it but can not state so directly due to threat influences against their immediate person by elements operating in the background. [ ie. Russian Mafia and Maher is acting as a "mafia" stooge] "The best way to destroy the power of the USA is to drain it of it's economic resources and the contrived conflicts of Irak and Afghanistan and now possibly Syria are, as you know, hideously expensive." I would speculate that if the USA can establish the Maher [Syria,] Afghanistan, Lebanon, Irak then on to Russia link they will find that the "Cold" war is far from resolved.
true... Bashar I believe is innocent of ordering the attack, however I believe his rogue brother Maher may have. And that's the problem, Bashar, personally, may be entirely innocent and a victim of Mahers machinations. Proving that Maher is and has been acting as "rogue" is the challenge I believe this thread is directed towards highlighting. You know the 'ole story of where a president is installed and is forced by coercive means into being a puppet of those with a vested interest in maintaining and expanding control.
Agreed. As I asked, Who benefits from such an action. It certainly isnt the Assad family. It isnt Russia. It isnt Iran. uh oh. http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6a5_1378545125 Please produce your link(s). The links I am reading do not use the word "illegal". Example: http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/wor...cal-weapons/yMiIf2FEKg6bkwxnRA0zSI/story.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ad7a72-193d-11e3-80ac-96205cacb45a_story.html Right now, its just talk about reaching an agreement on the chemical weapons. Maybe/likely a stall tactic. And I do not believe this statement: That only works if no one else has the keys so to speak. I do not believe our own nuke weapons are that secure from a rebel element within our own ranks. It would take quite a conspiracy to launch one, but I dont believe for one minute its impossible. And we are not in the middle of a two year civil war with 1.6 million dead americans (compariable to 100K dead in syria). It is highly likely Syrians within the military structure are damn sick and tired of this war. It is also very likely some have lost family to the war. Motive? Interesting article I found going back to the Branch Davidians. http://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2000-07-07/77866/
