08-11-12, 09:44 AM #1
So I simplified the US presidential elections
Let's save some time and money. Since 80% of the States have a highly predictable voting result, we should just focus on possible swing states. Now let's throw out the small ones whose results don't make a damn difference, and we are left with OH, FL and PA.
So cancel the election in 47 states, and have it only in these 3. The winner has to win at least 2 of these states, end of story...
Edit: Actually, it is only OH and FL, but in case of a one going this way and the other that way, PA is the tiebreaker... By the current polling results, all 3 go to Obama...
08-11-12, 11:20 AM #2
This is why national opinion polls are worthless.
If Romney goes from a 65% approval rating in Texas to 98%, it doesn't matter. Sure, that swings the national average, but it doesn't do anything to the election: He's already got Texas's EC votes.
If Obama goes from a 77% approval rating in California to a 61%, it doesn't matter. Romney has still lost and Obama will still get all the delegates.
Opinion polls in Ohio and Florida matter, but even there, the ones in the inner-city or far country don't matter: those are decided counties. It's the suburbs (mixed, middle class) that really decide the states as well.
IT's not fair to say that "Ohio decides the nation's fate" because California did too, it just made its portion of the decision way earlier and may more predictably. California could just as easily go to Romney (it did for Reagan in the 80's). But it won't, so we consider the matter to be closed and we sort-of disingenuously say, "the election is decided by Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa". But NY, TX and CA did as well, but just more predictably.
08-11-12, 12:10 PM #3
True everything you said, I just dumbed it down. Is there really any important swing state beside OH and FL? I am not up to date on the polls, but I don't think so...
It would be interesting if a candidate solely spent all his money on those 2 states. After all money talks and that is where it is most effective...
09-06-12, 08:25 AM #4
All above mentioned states are for Obama right now. He has a very commanding predicted EC lead....
09-09-12, 12:01 AM #5
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