Facebook IPO

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 12:16 PM

The IPO wasn't a flop, it did what it was supposed to, raised the most money for the COMPANY. Of course, investors got burned, but that was because they were idiots. The company does make money (unlike Netflix or Groupon) but it is way overvalued. Not to mention membership is oversaturated, thus too much growth isn't likely there...

By the way I think they overreport membership by 3, that is my guess. Someone who visits FB once a month isn't really a user....

**superstring01** · 07-31-12, 12:26 PM

The USA is listed as FB's top growth market. Our membership percent is lower than places like Brazil and Argentina. Crazy.

~String

**Read-Only** · 07-31-12, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by Syzygys

The IPO wasn't a flop, it did what it was supposed to, raised the most money for the COMPANY. Of course, investors got burned, but that was because they were idiots. The company does make money (unlike Netflix or Groupon) but it is way overvalued. Not to mention membership is oversaturated, thus too much growth isn't likely there...

By the way I think they overreport membership by 3, that is my guess. Someone who visits FB once a month isn't really a user....

Incorrect - the IPO was an unqualified flop! Because even though it did succeed in raising tons of money for the company, it burned (mentally) even all the potential investors who DIDN'T buy. In other words, it practically destroyed the company's reputation. And it will never recover. Especially in light of the things I mentioned AND this latest dastardliness.

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 12:31 PM

Recently, they are trying to reach the younger generation (aka kids), exactly because the adult membership growth stagnated. There they could still grow, although it is questionable if it is good for society or not (10-12 years olds posting)....

**superstring01** · 07-31-12, 12:32 PM

Facebook, Jr. ???

McFacebook ???

~String

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 12:32 PM

Originally Posted by Read-Only

Incorrect - the IPO was an unqualified flop!

Look at it this way, Zuckerberg never wanted to go public. So they got $38 for it. Once the stock is under $10, they can just buy the stocks back and be a private company again, with shitload of cash and not worrying about profitability...

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by superstring01

Facebook, Jr. ???

They want it with parental supervision:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...741019238.html

"FB is developing technology that would allow children younger than 13 years old to use the social-networking site under parental supervision, a step that could help the company tap a new pool of users for revenue but also inflame privacy concerns."

**superstring01** · 07-31-12, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by Syzygys

Look at it this way, Zuckerberg never wanted to go public. So they got $38 for it. Once the stock is under $10, they can just buy the stocks back and be a private company again, with shitload of cash and not worrying about profitability...

Eeeeeeeyeaaahhhh. You can't just "buy the stock back" and be private again. There's the whole SEC, DOC, DOJ, legal filings and whatnot that FB would have to go through.

~String

**Read-Only** · 07-31-12, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by Syzygys

Look at it this way, Zuckerberg never wanted to go public. So they got $38 for it. Once the stock is under $10, they can just buy the stocks back and be a private company again, with shitload of cash and not worrying about profitability...

HO-HO-HO!! Are you trying to make the joke of the year?

Besides all the almost-never-ending legal hoops they'd have to jump through, who would want to buy and own a sinking ship??

They've had their day in the sun - it's only a matter of time before near-extinction. No one - and I mean NO ONE - has any faith at all in the future of Facebook. That attempt to pull in the wee little kids is nothing more than the death rattle of a dying company. The general public will hate them even more for that stupid attempt.

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by superstring01

You can't just "buy the stock back" and be private again.

I think technically, you can. Companies buy their own stock back all the time, although usually not all at once. FB could do it slowly. Also, let's say the stock is around 10$ and they would offer $15 (like a buyout). Most stockholders at that point would be happy to get a 50% bonus on their crappy stock...

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by Read-Only

No one - and I mean NO ONE - has any faith at all in the future of Facebook.

That is total bullshit. The company makes 1 billion profit per year. How many internet companies are profitable at all, not to mention making that much??? It worths something, just not 100 billion as the IPO's valuation was. It is closer to 10-20 billions...

The stock has just started reflecting the correct valuation...

**youreyes** · 07-31-12, 03:14 PM

The company stocks will go up, once enough time will pass from the IPO impact. Businesses will grow and demand for social media control will as well. If there is a best time to buy Facebook stocks, it is now.

**Michael** · 07-31-12, 05:00 PM

When it's under $10 they can try and buy the stock back, but they don't get to just "buy it". I mean, you have to have a seller.

I THINK FB would be worth $6-8 a share and might be willing to buy at that price. I noticed FB is becoming more popular in Japan. Usually Japanese use Mixi but now they're using FB. I personally don't have a FB account. Seems like a time waster.

**Read-Only** · 07-31-12, 05:07 PM

Originally Posted by Syzygys

That is total bullshit. The company makes 1 billion profit per year. How many internet companies are profitable at all, not to mention making that much??? It worths something, just not 100 billion as the IPO's valuation was. It is closer to 10-20 billions...

The stock has just started reflecting the correct valuation...

Nope, you're just bedazzled by the big numbers. FB isn't really going to go away but they've damaged their image so badly (and apparently will continue to do so in their chase after profits) that their popularity is beginning to sag and will ALSO continue to do so - unless they turn around and do some considerable housecleaning of their operations and business model.

**Billy T** · 07-31-12, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by superstring01

The USA is listed as FB's top growth market. Our membership percent is lower than places like Brazil and Argentina. Crazy. ~String

It is a cultural thing. Brazilians (and I think Argentinians) admire crooks that don´t get caught. - Elect mainly them to public office etc. "Malandros" (clever crooks who trick you) are more admired than hated. - "If only I had done that" seems to be the public wish, not that the manlandro should go to jail.

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 08:15 PM

Originally Posted by Read-Only

Nope, you're just bedazzled by the big numbers.

You really don't know much about business. For a tech company the valuation of 20 times annual profits is pretty normal. In short, if you buyed the company at marketcap, in 20 years you would get your money back...

**Syzygys** · 07-31-12, 08:17 PM

Originally Posted by Billy T

It is a cultural thing. Brazilians

...use Orkut not FB...

"Despite the growth of Facebook, the most popular social network in Brazil still is Orkut, with 75% of all internet users in Brazil."
"As of October 2011, 59.1% of Orkut's users are from Brazil, followed by India with 27.1% and Japan with 6.7%."

Now FB still could grow in Latin America and China (they missed out on entering the Chinese market), where its share is still small:

"Hi5: Although created and headquartered in the United States, it is more popular in other countries, particularly in Latin America, "

**joepistole** · 08-01-12, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by joepistole

I realize I am in the minority, but I would not be surprised to see a FB price of $9/share. I think $9/share would be a fair price for the stock. People seem to think this stock will grow at 25% per year, and I just don't see it.

Facebook is making good progress towards that $9/share price. It is trading around $20/per share, down from over $30/share.

**Syzygys** · 08-01-12, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by Syzygys

My prediction is that because the stock is way overvalued, it will be under $20 in 2 years or less...

Today's low was $20.87, basicly there at my predicted price just after 2 months...

**Billy T** · 08-02-12, 10:35 AM

Billy T has merged two threads, both started by Syzygys and both on Facebook IPO. The more general title remains - Gone is title about 80% of views at FB being made by bots. It was post 37 and earlier, I think, a claim now in post 18.