Election 2016 (U.S.)

[keith1]

Romney incapable (inevitable D.O.A. by Nov.)
Obama (four more)
Biden is Republican new focus (today)
Hilary and bank surrogates pointed (last two days)
Powell's timely "coming-out" (today)

Folks, we have a 2016 cycle!

[Tiassa]

Folks, we have a 2016 cycle!

Briefly, on your list:

• Romney — Not smart enough to lose and not try again.

• Biden — Would be seventy-four at time of inauguration in January, 2017.

• Clinton — Says she's done after tenure at State; I actually believe her—she's seen something like nineteen SOTU addresses in a row, and I can imagine she might like to enjoy the sort of retirement that comes from high-figure speaking fees and book deals.

• Powell — Smart enough to never run for president.

And then less briefly:

The Republican mystery is perhaps easy enough to identify: Watch Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), Gov. Chris Christie (NJ), Sen. Rand Paul (KY), and do not forget to keep the Bush clan in the peripheral vision. The GOP will also try, and with little genuine success, to bring a woman to the fore. Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), being groomed as a photogenic, Hispanic conservative, will likely burn up in ethics scandals, but he might be in condition to run a primary campaign. No-go to Rep. Eric Cantor (VA), Gov. Rick Scott (FL), Gov. Scott Walker (WI).

The Democratic side is a bit harder to figure. Perhaps it will be a bit more clear after the 2012 election, but where the old guard of the GOP is in disarray, and thus the potential rising stars fairly easy to spot, congressional Democrats are still the caucuses of Pelosi and Reid. Clearly, neither of them will be in any position to run, so who? Rep. Jim McDermott (WA) won't be running, and I doubt he would play well with midwestern labor Democrats. I couldn't begin to tell you who is coming up out of California, since it's an old guard Democrat in the governor's mansion, and state house Democrats are in as much disarray as ever. It may well be that the 2012-2016 period will see the Democratic Party finally collapse on itself and rebuild from the rubble; to the one, I hope they do a better job than the GOP, and to the other, whoever decided to concede the "blue" label in the party logo needs a good talkin' to out in the woodshed. But no, it won't be Tom Barrett, even if he does unseat Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Nor Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois. I can only shudder at the thought that the Democrats have to call up Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber; he's a nice enough guy, but there must be someone better.

Problem is, I have no idea who that someone better is. There are plenty of young Democrats rising through the ranks, but the Big Blue D doesn't have an iconic idealist like Paul Ryan, old-school firebrand like Rand Paul, or inexplicably popular fatass like Chris Christie.

There is not a single well-known Democrat well-positioned to follow President Obama.

No, seriously. I don't know. But Hillary's tired; Biden will be too old; Powell won't let himself be drafted by Democrats. Chris Coons? By the goddess, what fun that would be, to follow President Barack Obama with a guy named Coons.

I'm honestly thinking some celebrity or perhaps an otherwise-overlooked academic is suddenly going to come out of the woodwork. And as much as I adore Rachel Maddow, I honestly cannot imagine it being her.

Oh, hey ... there you go. President Franken.

Right. You see the problem with figuring the Democratic side of 2016.

Honestly, I'm down to the lesbian television host and the Jewish comedian-turned-U.S. Senator. I'd take either of them; they'd do just fine. But come on ... it ain't happening.

Realistically speaking? Yeah. I have no idea.

[keith1]

Yeah, Oregon political celebs (and that's what we eventually hire) are too honest folksy and too remote from Washington. They smell like a fir forest, because that's what's in their heart. Kitzhaber, Wyden, and DeFazio. Really intelligent nice guys.

Romney's been around for years, for the pitiful experience he has garnered out of Mass., and nothing overseas, except hidden bank accounts.

A candidates has to jump out in the international circles. Bush was kissing the Saudi princes, and Obama took to Foreign Affairs as if a fish in water.

Oil is beginning to drop in price, so some oil source is giving the Koch bros a run for their money.

[Syzygys]

Jeff Bush for sure. By 2016 most people will forget dubya, and Jeff is actually intelligent.

On the Dem side, there will be newcomers, Biden will never run, Hillary is too old.

[Tiassa]

Sometimes I'm just egotistical.

I'm honestly thinking some celebrity or perhaps an otherwise-overlooked academic is suddenly going to come out of the woodwork. And as much as I adore Rachel Maddow, I honestly cannot imagine it being her.

Goddess help us all, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, Republican, just called Rachel Maddow, "Madame Vice President".

I mean, sure, it was just a joke. Playful conversational banter. But, still ....

Maddow: Buddy Roemer, you did not go far as a presidential potential nominee in the Republican Party, but you are capable—as a Republican—of talking to people on the left and the right about this issue. So as you continue to stick with this issue, I hope you'll keep the dialogue open with me and with our friends on the right, together.

Roemer: Yes, Madame Vice President.

Maddow: (laughs) Now that's a sure losing bet.

____________________

Notes:

Roemer, Buddy. Interview with Rachel Maddow. The Rachel Maddow Show. MSNBC, New York. May 31, 2012. MSNBC.com. May 31, 2012. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#47638559

[Syzygys]

Intelligence was never a factor in politics... Palin, Dubya, Potato,