US's economy has fully recovered?

[spidergoat]

Yes, it has sent our jobs overseas. However, this is the individual choices of people. Think about iPhone. There may not even be an iPhone without overseas manufacturing. This suggests something is wrong in the US in terms of labor.

The problem is the lack of proper trade tariffs that would make a US made iPhone the same price as a Chinese made iPhone. Part of it is also labor in that Republicans have undermined unions wherever they can, because they are not the party of the working class.

I disagree you need thuggery to prevent unionization in Asia.

Then all that thuggery, like in Indonesia, is just what? Voluntary?

In China people are lined up down the street for a chance at a job in a factory. The wages are also increasing. They've pulled more people out of poverty than any other country - ever.

Yes, their people tend to be poor and desperate, but something else is happening as wages go up slightly, which is that China outsources it's labor to other Asian countries like Vietnam. It's a race to the bottom.

Another example: Have you used those new scanners at the grocery store (where you scan your own items)? My friend is totally against these as it puts the checkout clerks out of work. But, the lines are faster and the cost savings are passed on to us the consumer. Also, I like the convenience. But, at the end of the day I said: It's a sad indictment of the state of public education if the only job these people can perform is a job it took me 2 minutes to figure out on my own. Surely they have more skills than this? Without the need to stand there, some will go out and create a new company or service and in this way we become more prosperous. Now, the problem comes in (perhaps) in our educational system as well as our monetary system. Citizens forgot how to create business and most can not access the necessary investment from the banks.

I hate those self-checkout things. They tend to be much slower then using a cashier, and if there is any irregularity at all, you need a cashier anyway. The problem isn't cashiers, it's dumb Americans making chit chat with the cashier about their intimate personal lives. In Germany, it's all business, and the lines go fast.

Instead of trying to "save jobs" which may not make sense economically, we should be thinking about how to create a society where creating a business is seen as normal and something to aspire towards and use a monetary system that is flexible enough to allow more people access to investment to try and start these businesses. We also need to eliminate barriers to doing business. Example: In Miami you need to pay to go into a lottery and if you're lucky and your name is drawn you can open a hotdog stand in the Commons. That has to be done each year. Well, that's not fair. In a free market anyone can sell hotdogs in the commons.

We should be creating a society with a good quality of life for everyone. Our model of endless growth is over, it's running on fumes and most people don't realize it yet.

[quadraphonics]

I hate those self-checkout things. They tend to be much slower then using a cashier, and if there is any irregularity at all, you need a cashier anyway.

This is the opposite of my experience. Since I started frequenting Fresh & Easy, I absolutely hate the slow, laborious process of being checked out by an actual person. Plus the self check-out places tend to install way more check-out lines, so there's almost never any line. When you're paying a check-out employee, you can only staff so many at a time, and the result is that customers end up waiting in line for much longer than a self check-out would have taken, before the checker even starts on their groceries.

It is true that it can be a pain if there's an irregularity or they need to check your ID for buying beer or whatever, but I've found that the places that rely on self check-out are pretty hip to that and station an employee or two in the area to jump on those situations real quick. The fast turnover is supposed to be the big advantage, so if it's slowing you down then they're doing it wrong.

The problem isn't cashiers, it's dumb Americans making chit chat with the cashier about their intimate personal lives.

The thing about it is that the cashiers seem to want to do this as much as the customers. I'm always irritated when I use a cashier now, because they want to smalltalk with me instead of just scanning my stuff. Also, old ladies who pay with checks (like it's the 1900's or something) love to use the cashier lines, spend 10 minutes digging out coupons, counting out change, etc. It's the 21st century people: use a credit card. Cash is for buying things on the black market, and checks are useful mainly for reading your routing/account number off the bottom when signing up for automatic electronic payments.

In Germany, it's all business, and the lines go fast.

That I can believe, although I've only ever used markets in Germany like twice and both times it was at odd hours when they were totally empty.

[Billy T]

Answer to thread´s question is still "No." The economy is still growing worse, (see quote below) on it way to collapse, much like and for same reasons that the Greek economy is; however in the US case, there are many other cause for GWB`s coming depression such as needless wars started, transfer of wealth from the middle class (that did the buying to keep the consumer economy running) to the already rich, who buy much less. (They invest most of their income and often not even in the US, but make jobs in foreign lands where the rate of return is greater than in the US). etc.

“… {Bernanke}You've already spent $2.3 trillion buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Spending another $267 billion strikes me a little like giving yourself a transfusion -- only you're taking blood from your left arm and putting it back into your right arm. {via twisting again, like you did last summer}

The labor participation rate is at a 30-year low and I am sure most Americans who are either seeking employment or working now would like to know why. So would those who have given up. Many I've talked to would actually like to come back as productive members of society again.

Four years and trillions of dollars into this mess, your Fed has taken a buzzsaw to growth estimates, most recently cutting them to 1.9% from 2.4% for this year. If the government multiplier everybody always cites actually worked, our economy should be screaming along at 8% a year or more.

Yet over 6 million people have left the workforce, which makes the most recent 8.2% unemployment mark extremely suspect. Hiring is slowing again. Factory output is dropping and consumer confidence is faltering …” From: http://moneymorning.com/2012/06/22/a...-ben-bernanke/

Billy T comment: China has a larger GDP than the US has if all the items with no lasting value are stripped out. (Things like expenses associated with last years NFL season etc.) yet is growing 5 times faster!

[elte]

Billy, indeed, much of that growth is likely a type which will just make the crash harder when it comes. Economists don't seem to explain the importance of focusing scarce resources on the right things that matter in the long run.

[Mrs.Lucysnow]

Nothing is "broken." The US system just is not set up to benefit the majority.

I.e. From their POV the US has the best government money can buy, but of course, the masses must not be well educated and able to think for them selves, so local funding of schools (not uniform federal) is critical to make sure only a small minority living in rich neighborhoods will get an education equal to that every child born in Scandinavia gets.

Why is there so much denial over this fact? Its not simply the ignorant who fail to see this point its also those who are generally intelligent and better informed. Why is there such a denial in Americans about the nature of the system? Can you turn around a nation of ill educated masses with a provincial disposition that simultaneously believes they are members of the greatest country on earth and the luckiest citizens alive?

[Michael]

Billy, indeed, much of that growth is likely a type which will just make the crash harder when it comes. Economists don't seem to explain the importance of focusing scarce resources on the right things that matter in the long run.

For the economists running the nation into the ground there is no such thing as a scarce resource. One dumb-ass even proposed an Alien Invasion where we randomly blow shit up, would get the economy on sure footing. He's got a Nobel Prize too.

[joepistole]

For the economists running the nation into the ground there is no such thing as a scarce resource. One dumb-ass even proposed an Alien Invasion where we randomly blow shit up, would get the economy on sure footing. He's got a Nobel Prize too.

I hate to interrupt with you with some facts Michael, but I will. One economists are not running the nation. Two, economics exists because of scarcity. No one with the least bit of economic knowledge would say otherwise.

Three, that "dumbass" economist is an economics Nobel prize winner and well respected. And he did not propose an alien invasion. He used alien invasion as an example to demonstrate a point.

[Michael]

I hate to interrupt with you with some facts Michael, but I will. One economists are not running the nation. Two, economics exists because of scarcity. No one with the least bit of economic knowledge would say otherwise.

Three, that "dumbass" economist is an economics Nobel prize winner and well respected. And he did not propose an alien invasion. He used alien invasion as an example to demonstrate a point.

Joe, the Federal Reserve board has much more influence over the economy and thus people's lives and aspirations compared with the dip-shits who sit in CONgress or as POTUS or House. BUT, don't get me wrong, they're ALL running this country into the ground.

As for the Nobel Wienner, do tell exactly what point his Alien Invasion analogy was meant to make and how that is related to "economics of scarcity". Oh, you did notice he thought the Fukushima Nuclear meltdown would end up being "good" for the Japanese economy because it justified "stimulus spending". These idiots like Krugman live so far from reality they wouldn't know scarcity if it smacked them in the nose.

He doesn't think we're borrowing enough!!! He wants us to borrow TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS more. That suites him and his kind perfectly well as they won't be around when the whole mess blows up! Or so they thought....

[joepistole]

Joe, the Federal Reserve board has much more influence over the economy and thus people's lives and aspirations compared with the dip-shits who sit in CONgress or as POTUS or House. BUT, don't get me wrong, they're ALL running this country into the ground.

Well that is simply untrue. The Federal Reserve is subordinate to Congress. Congress created the Fed and the Fed is subject to the laws set forth by Congress. So clearly Congress and the president are more powerful. And the Fed is responsible for only monetary policy and some banking regulation.

As for the Nobel Wienner, do tell exactly what point his Alien Invasion analogy was meant to make and how that is related to "economics of scarcity". Oh, you did notice he thought the Fukushima Nuclear meltdown would end up being "good" for the Japanese economy because it justified "stimulus spending". These idiots like Krugman live so far from reality they wouldn't know scarcity if it smacked them in the nose.

I have a better idea, why don't you explain the point Krugman was making when he invoked the alien example.

And two, Krugman did not say that Fukushima was good. That is you making stuff up again Michael. Below is article you are referencing.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...acroeconomics/

Krugman just explains the likely economic impact of the disaster.

He doesn't think we're borrowing enough!!! He wants us to borrow TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS more. That suites him and his kind perfectly well as they won't be around when the whole mess blows up! Or so they thought....

Hogwash, that is you making stuff up again Michael. Krugman is not an advocate for fiscal irresponsibility. He is an advocate for stimulus to restore stability in the financial markets and return to full employment and to minimize our debt issues. He is for fiscal restraint and fiscal responsibility - something we did not see under the previous Republican congress and president.

[Billy T]

"Has US economy recovered?" - In some areas, very much so:

"Smith & Wesson reported stellar fiscal fourth-quarter 2012 results on June 28, which included a 59% earnings surprise and a 135.1% year-over-year jump in firearm backlog. This leading firearm manufacturer hit its 52-week high on July 2. ..." From: http://www.zacks.com/commentary/2212...n-holding-corp

[Billy T]

No. things are getting worse:


"...The average American lost a combined total of over 40% of their net wealth. ..."
"... We've already seen the impact of rising prices on everything from housing to food:

Housing: 4% Increase {Billy T thinks that is due to there being more renters paying higher rents now}
Insurance: 69% Increase
College: 66% Increase
Basic Food: 50% Increase
Gas: 48% Increase

This means a $100 basket of basic food could cost you over $200... $100 worth of education could cost you $216... insurance, $219... and so it goes. ...

If the current trends continue, the New America for most people will mean more and more of us are plunged into poverty, losing 2-3% of our income each year. ..."
from: https://reports.insidersstrategygrou...=463017&r=Milo

But the Email that lead me to this site had this astounding statement:
"... More folks signed up for disability payments than got a new job over the past three months. ..." which is consistent with the 80,000 new jobs last reported and this:

"... After all, advances in medicine have cured or eliminated many of the problems workers had 50 years ago, right? And many of the backbreaking jobs of the 1960s are now automated... or done with machines or computers.
Yet the percentage of the American workforce that has convinced the government it is "too physically or emotionally handicapped to work"— and thus receives a handout from the government every month has gone from 1% of the workforce to an astonishing 5% of the workforce. ..."

This graph and the just quoted text from: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread....=1#post2960413 where "lost of work ethic of 50 years ago" and desire to get all one can with least effort possible (e.g. biggest bonuses at stock holder´s expenses, etc.) is shown to be what is killing the US economy. I.e. avoid hard work and get all you can is the new morality in the US.

[Michael]

Babyboomers have reached their peak spending and, if normality (and my parents) is anything to go by, they should be transitioning to saving and/or subsisting off pension while applying for anything and everything the State has to offer - disability, medicare, anything.... the savings, thanks to the Federal Reserve, will give them nothing. All of which suggests a big deflation of those hundreds of trillions of dollars in debt that's not going to be paid back.

So, my question is, your entire prediction hinges on The Big Print. How can you be sure it'll happen? Germans are resisting. Are Americans willing to watch as trillion dollar a year deficits pile up one after another? I mean, yes, Joe is fine with that, but what of the rest of America?


AND, if you really think the Big Print is going to happen, are you willing to step in a buy as everything is falling through the floor? All on a gamble that Americans no longer have the back bone to do the right thing?



Here's a recent example: The massive drop in natural gas prices. Surely this has taught the Federal Reserve a lesson in money printing? They lent out their trillions (actually the next generation's trillions), it found a home in natural gas exploration as banks lent, wells went up, price plummeted as oversupply was achieved in (another fed induced bubble) and now the bank loans can't be paid back and prices are expected to remain low for years and years and years. Classic f*cked up Federal Reserve Bubble. Unless the State steps in and regulates that Americans pay more (a CO2 tax, some other tax or some other some bullshit) we're going to have a screwed up natural gas market for a LONG time. We're, as we speak, wasting natural gas (a finite resource) instead of using it 'economically' (as if anyone remembers what that means... I mean it's CHEAP GAS!!! give me give me give me.....). Sadly, people will blame "Capitalism" when the Fed-screwed up energy market turns right around and bits them hard in the ass.

Those Greedy Capitalist Pigs!!!

Anyway, you really don't think the Federal Reserve can learn what a total f*ck-up it is? The Fed isn't worried when they see how a Little Print is already distorting the markets? A Big Print (which I do hope happens although the gods only know what will happen) will obliterate the economy as all sorts of distortions increase 'aggregate demand' and we have 50 colors of spray can Spray-on-Hair hit the "market".

They're not THAT moronic are they?!?!


Sadly, it'll be "Capitalism" and not Statism that will be blamed. Which is wonderful for the politicians - who love to mess shit up so they can pretend to "fix things... if only those damn Democrats/.... those damn Republicans (and their little dog too) would ONLY LET US HELP YOU"..... yes, we live in interesting times.


Anyway, I digress, so.... how can you be so sure the Big Print will happen?

[kmguru]

Well, if USA takes over the Euro, we will recover quick...like we did after WWII....

[Saint]

US can anytime print more money to save the world, right?

[Mrs.Lucysnow]

US can anytime print more money to save the world, right?

All the while devaluing the currency.

[Saint]

Currency devalued but US's goods will be cheaper and more competitive.
I heard that many US's manufacturers have started moving their production facilities back to US.

[kmguru]

I heard that many US's manufacturers have started moving their production facilities back to US.

I heard that too...but we are retired and they will ask for new people from Asia...

[Billy T]

Currency devalued but US's goods will be cheaper and more competitive.
I heard that many US's manufacturers have started moving their production facilities back to US.

well if true, it has not made the declining jobs picture in US any better. - It is still getting worse compared to what is needed just to stay at same fraction of the potential labor force employed. That fraction is now about 60% -the lowest level since shortly after the end of WWII when many returning soldiers were suddenly added to the potential labor force but had not immediately found a job.

For example the just released jobs created in August 2012 was 96,000, far below expectation and the ~150,000 just to match the growth in the potential labor force. I.e. new job seekers added to the labor force EXCEEDED new jobs available by about 150,000 - 96,000 = 54,000. Further more the better data on job creation for June 2012 was just revised downward too!

"... July’s downwardly revised 141K from 163K and June was revised down to 45K from 64K (May: 77K, April 78K). ..."

The monthly average job creation for the last five months is: (96+141+45+77+78)K / 5 = 437,000 / 5 = 87,400 or only slightly more than half what is needed to stop the "jobs hole" from getting deeper!

No wonder the number of potential workers getting discouraged and ceasing to even look for a job is increasing rapidly each month. This August drop out surge was so great that despite not making the 54,000 new jobs to just keep up the growth of the potential labor force the "official" unemployment rate FELL to 8.1 from 8.3%. I.e. the fraction of the potential work force that has a job is now dropping every month. Furthermore, those that lost their old job, but found a new one, had to take a pay cut and on average get less generous benefits too.

10,000 or so jobs returning to US from Asia each month is less than or about equal to the number of jobs going there (or to Mexico as "out-sourcing") from America and small compared to the monthly increase of the labor force which can not find a job (54,000 workers in August 2012)

Sorry to rain on your “happy parade” but facts are facts.

[joepistole]

well if true, it has not made the declining jobs picture in US any better. - It is still getting worse compared to what is needed just to stay at same fraction of the potential labor force employed. That fraction is now about 60% -the lowest level since shortly after the end of WWII when many returning soldiers were suddenly added to the potential labor force but had not immediately found a job.

No that is not true, the US job picture is not in decline. The economy has been consistently adding private sector jobs to the economy each and every month for nearly 3 years now. That is in stark contrast to losing nearly a million jobs a month in 2008-2009.

For example the just released jobs created in August 2012 was 96,000, far below expectation and the ~150,000 just to match the growth in the potential labor force. I.e. new job seekers added to the labor force EXCEEDED new jobs available by about 150,000 - 96,000 = 54,000. Further more the better data on job creation for June 2012 was just revised downward too!

The monthly average job creation for the last five months is: (96+141+45+77+78)K / 5 = 437,000 / 5 = 87,400 or only slightly more than half what is needed to stop the "jobs hole" from getting deeper!

No wonder the number of potential workers getting discouraged and ceasing to even look for a job is increasing rapidly each month. This August drop out surge was so great that despite not making the 54,000 new jobs to just keep up the growth of the potential labor force the "official" unemployment rate FELL to 8.1 from 8.3%. I.e. the fraction of the potential work force that has a job is now dropping every month. Furthermore, those that lost their old job, but found a new one, had to take a pay cut and on average get less generous benefits too.

Your 150k number fails to account for changing demographics in the workforce. When you adjust for the changing demographics of the workforce you get a number between 75k and 100k new jobs are needed to keep pace for new entrants into the work force.

10,000 or so jobs returning to US from Asia each month is less than or about equal to the number of jobs going there (or to Mexico as "out-sourcing") from America and small compared to the monthly increase of the labor force which can not find a job (54,000 workers in August 2012)

Sorry to rain on your “happy parade” but facts are facts.

There has been a rebound in US manufacturing and it is one reason the US is now adding jobs each and every month.

“Three trends suggest America's "manufacturing renaissance" is just getting started, says Neil Dutta, U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. First, the cost advantages of outsourcing factory work are narrowing. Emerging market wages, while still much lower than U.S. wages, are rising, and high oil prices have made shipping more expensive. That is expanding the range of goods U.S. factories can produce at competitive prices” – Smart Money 4/8/12

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/sto...1333924908638/

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-co...ce-2012-8?op=1

[Buddha12]

U.S. home foreclosure filings increased 9 percent last month over April, according to a new report from RealtyTrac, an online marketplace that tracks foreclosures.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 205,990 homes in May — that’s one in every 639 homes nationwide. That’s about 4 percent lower than this time last year, but the rising monthly rates underscore how difficult it will be to restart the devastated housing market.

Foreclosures slowed last year amid a lawsuit filed by the federal government and state attorneys general against some of the nation’s biggest banks for abusive lending practices, according to the Associated Press. A $25 billion settlement was hashed out in February of this year, clearing the way for banks to take action against people who had defaulted on their payments.

June 14, 2012, 1:12 pm ET by Sarah Childress