02-16-12, 07:45 AM #1
Journey to the Center of The Yellowstone Caldera
This is like my 21st birthday. I tried to post this last night while the sun was still sporting a significant flare, but was told I needed to have 20 posts before I could provide links. Here goes with post #21
For my first post here, this is pretty long, still I'd rather give you all enough to bite into with the first course than an appetiser through a slow server.
This is to gain some input from those in related scientific disciplines about the mysteries of Yellowstone Park Caldera. We have known since the 60's that it is a supervolcano. The natural scenario of it being a basin was known since the 1870's. From what I can piece together, it would seem the end of the Maunder Minimum wakened not only the sun's activity but possibly the supervolcano as well. I'd hope by some chance there are some who actually work at the YVO who can answer some questions about the age of the geysers, inclusive of the methodology for such determination. If it can't be truly determined, just say so.
Some of my research dives into the planet's geological/geomagnetic history include Yellowstone's history. Since it's discovery some 200 years after the Maunder Minimum or "little ice age," the caldera had been seen to have geysers. I'm of the opinion that it is not impossible for those leaks to be the earliest stages of fracture, thus eruption and caused by a thaw after such a long deep freeze.. We know very little about supervolcanoes, but if it has an area about 750 times that of Mt. Saint Helens, the lava dome is more plate-like so prone toward further fracturing in the case of more cold, meaning deep freeze, events. It would seem logical that if the area is already hotter than it used to be, thus expanded a bit, and known for having a meaningful water table, this plate, likely weakened around 1650, if it were subjected to some short season of local glaciation, may follow classic physics and contract again, thus fracturing further. I cannot say it has no links to the planet's magnetic inclination, still I cannot either say that it does. Are any of you familiar with any residual magnetic field studies done in the Yellowstone Caldera, similar to Steen's Mountain? Is it in any way a record of geomagnetic field distribution?
IMO... the localized glaciation of the Rocky Mountains, basically on the same great circle tome as Western Europe, with perhaps some oscillation in that, should Yellowstone become subject to another sunspot minimum caused deep freeze, only localized, it is possible the caldera's plate could fracture more and sprout new geysers. Any thoughts to fail this? If that is possible, could this become a runaway effect? If so, and it broke up into constant steam vents, the aquifers from surrounding states could likely be drained into this supersaturation event process as we know the geysers to be. My last look at the aquifers from Wyoming and surrounding states, suggests the caldera would act as one large hot spring. This would progressively bubble over and fill in the basins in those areas. If the steam and water continued to bubble, the flow could create new tributaries meandering the water eventually to the eastern states. Maybe some of you who work with the USGS regurlarly could recommend some sites that I can look up water tables and aquifers online. I first began the study by ordering the maps through the public library here. As I said they all appear to be interleaved quite a bit. I want to see if there is any interleave with the underground river in Mexico in the link below:
These are all relevant to the subject of the caldera and underground water sources that could affect it.
This is the NASA site for seeing what the sun's up to as of their last imaging. The following list is of a number of predictions made for solar flares based around the symmetry of the solar wind and some other experiments I've run. The first 4 I've been accurate to within 24 hours and today we are looking at what appears to be two flares in excess of 1.5% of the disk.
Oct 15, 2011
Jan 20 2012
feb 2 2012
feb 15 2012
march 19 2012
april 5 2012
may 5 2012
may 25 2012
july 12 2012
july 27 2012
sep 3 2012
sep 17 2012
oct 27 2012
nov 18 2012
dec 3 2012
dec 17 2012
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... t_304/512/
The flares are already building as of 1300 hrs today. We can see them actually tracing the path of magnetic symmetry between the Earth, Mercury and Venus.
It doesn't have to be a flare intense enough to make the Aurora dance for positive data. The lesser flares tell us that
1. the core has recently spat out a major plasma burst and
2. internal plasma activity is still seeming to be affected by the planets' external magnetic symmetries affecting an isolated area on the sun.
I have a list developed into 2014. It will take me at least the rest of this year to refine the system that says when a flare or flares may occur. What I'm trying to find through this thread are opinions about Yellowstone Caldera that may be useful in establishing a link between the solar wind and volcanism. It appears the supervolcano may be a type that errupts in phases, slowly as its own system disrupts from expansion. It may be a particular effect or phase could begin and continue for hundreds of years. Such a revelation would be good news because we can know a bit what to expect. IMO 2012 will be nothing like the movie sensationalizes and Yellowstone will not errupt suddenly as was depicted there. The one thing I'm speculating is that a deep freeze in Colorado and Wyoming could be a "next phase" indicator and it could runaway over a period of 10 or 20 years... I hope it would be that progressive.
The plume's high conductivity suggests it contains high levels of silicate rocks and perhaps briny water, he said. The observation that the high conductivity plume is larger and angled differently than the one found with seismic imaging suggests that the plume of molten and partially molten rock may be surrounded by additional liquid including briny water, Zhdanov said.
On August 29, 1870, a 30-year-old Army lieutenant named Gustavus Doane, part of an exploratory expedition in the Yellowstone region in the territory of Wyoming,
Around the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) signed a memorandum of understanding with the University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park to create YVO. The idea was to formalize what had been an unofficial observatory for many years and create a stronger framework for monitoring and research. A few years later, in late 2002, a number of geological factors contributed to ramping up public interest in Yellowstone and its volcanic potential.
First, surface waves from the magnitude-7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered about 400 small temblors within the park, 3,100 kilometers (about 1,900 miles) distant from the epicenter. Next, Steamboat Geyser, Yellowstone’s tallest and most unpredictable geyser, erupted in March 2003 and again in April and October. A new and vigorously steaming 75-meter (245-foot) line of steam vents erupted within sight of the Norris-Mammoth Road. A trail in the Norris Geyser Basin was closed because of increased steaming and resulting elevated ground temperatures. Our coordinating scientist Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah spearheaded a seismic and GPS-based experiment trying to understand the nature of the changes to hydrothermal features at Norris.
The above are excerpts from the articles directly above them. The last is where I'm basing some of my questions concerning deep freeze and its effects on this huge "lid." A person could spend years digging up all the dates and comparing data, still we have less than 200 years of observations about the caldera, including that of Jim Bridger. Next is to look up the verified historical dates of the eruptions, meaning the lesser erruptions and compare these against solar data if at all possible. It may offer more than just a link between the two where volcanoes are concerned, it could reflect on seismology as well, which we already know exists to a degree. Recently the subject of magnetic reconnection has come into the pieces of the puzzle. These magnetic portals occur every 8 minutes here on Earth. The CLUSTER Mission has only verified these since 2008.
Whether one actually reviews these, especially the wiki article on "The Little Ice Age," or not, the dates in that article are important because they link sunspot activity, or inactivity, to the planet's climate. The evidence also tends to link our own magnetosphere's geometry to our climate, thus the concern over Yellowstone's Caldera. Since the only "time machine" we have is the records of sedementation, CO2 in glacial ice, elevations of mountain ice bases, how much, how cold and when, for instance. How do we come up with some sort of predictability over potential hazards such as the Yellowstone Caldera? Are we all still that primative in our ability to compare evidence that all we can say is "I don't know?"
It is conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, though climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of this period, which varied according to local conditions. NASA defines the term as a cold period between 1550 AD and 1850 AD and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes areas affected by the LIA:
Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the 20th century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late 20th century levels.
The above is from the wiki article. Red areas are accented to point out how the evidence is relevant to what is happening today.
My take on all this is just one person's perspective. I'd be very interested in hearing what others have to say about this.
02-18-12, 12:01 PM #2
Maybe this is a prophecy of sorts. All the responses to this seem to be the chirping of the crickets on a still night. Bugs in the machines. Maybe that's all there will be soon. A silent Earth...
There you go, Bells. My 21st post was to bring an important topic to the table. There's no Hubble in this. Just 4 reasonably accurate solar flare predictions, some journey's into history of the climate and a hunch about one possible meaning of it all.
Still running toward that cliff? What if it decides to start running toward you?
02-18-12, 10:34 PM #3
Here is a place to do some measurements. Wait til after sunrise. Check the intervals between events, and when they change (like a woman's contractions before childbirth) you should have a clue that something is amiss.
02-19-12, 12:42 AM #4
02-19-12, 01:19 AM #5
02-19-12, 02:37 AM #6
Missed that little line...
(Monty Python: Life of Brian... old man) My bones are weak... my head it aches...
I'll check that out tomorrow. thanks.
02-19-12, 01:31 PM #7
I wouldn't even know where to start to address the OP - it is filled with absolutely bizzare claims, wholly spurious correlations, and absurd connections.
02-19-12, 02:12 PM #8
I'm waiting for it to load and my beard is growing. I'll let it run for a while, but last night and this morning the computer on this end intercepted a trojan of sorts.
As for everything in this thread,
(I'll try clicking again on another machine later. )
this is basically an educated guess at this point.
I appreciate the link. I'm wanting to see, basically, whether there are any others that can dismiss, really looking at this imaginatively, Whether, for starters, the geysers would freeze during a sudden local ice age. I could point to a Hollywood sensationalization of a new Maunder minimum, but those examples are more for layman level perspectives.
As an example, one of my neighbors up the street is an avid gardener. He approaches an amateur horticulturist. Today he told me his Easter Lillies have sprung forth in mid February in Indiana. VERY unusual. I'm nearly 60 and never in my life have I seen winters like the last 25 years as in the quarter prior. My sister, a geologist of sorts, reported Monarch Butterflies in Lansing, MI. We grew up with 3 feet of snow in October a common thing in South Bend and the surrounding territory.
About 1985 the weather showed visible signs of a changing pattern and the subject of global warming was brought up. Check out that methane plumes link. ANy of them. We couldn't communicate about these events back then like we can now. IN that, I'm looking at new data, accepting it and applying old school scientific values to the findings. When I was studying astrophysics and working as an engineer, the scientific news was the solar neutrino deficiency, since cleared up through more than one theory, and Bennett's Island in Siberia spewing out geysers of methane miles into the biosphere. I became a bit active about the greenhouse effect right about then. It was too early to tell if it truly was the greenhouse effect from pollution or natural, then I leaned toward manmade, but as more news of this anticipated magnetic shift from both camps, then especially after Haiti, I decided to delve into earthbound studies involving first geophysics, then into new findings about the sun after some validation of an earlier theory. The new findings were pointing to Earth's magnetic field chaos increasing with each solar max. The comparative analysis of the two, through magnetic reconnection found by CLUSTER to be recurring every 8 minutes, compounded to the acceleration in magnetic inclination, would only be there with a core-locked plasma channel between the two bodies. Mars has no detectable field. Aluminum and copper there might have some shielding effect, assuming the rovers are finding signs of those. Jupiter in theory would have a magnetic portal reconnection interval of closer to 40 minutes. Venus and Mercury are the next duo of magnetic coupling, then Saturn and the outer guys. The further out the weaker per mass, so Kuiper objects should only have a magnetic bounding effect, something like the outer glass of a plasma device.
What I'm saying at the moment is that all the fiields working together bend the trajectories of these magnetic portals and develope a sub-bounding, stronger field that warps, within the sun, what I referred to ion 1999 as plasma channels, thus we can predict a bit when to sub-branch fields, so piercing the interface zone of the tachocline. Boof! A plasma channel erupts and bombards the chromosphere with sub-atomic particles and electrical plasma, like the core of the plasma device. A solar flare errupts. The larger the area beneath, the great the flux compression effect is present. So if we pull a sub-field while in syzygy with Jupiter, the mean trajectory should pull an internal plasma channel. The Northern lights may light up.
I have some other work to do at the moment, but I'll take this toward the caldera in a while.
02-19-12, 02:23 PM #9
Where to start? Just bring supporting or failing data to the thread. Aquaes linked to what appears to be a gov site watching the park. What do you know about the swelling cycles in terms of rise dates? I already have a good bit of seismic data. More can't hurt. Keep in mind this is an educated guess at this point and some of the more refined methods of analysis are working a bit. I need more data to compare. If someone here handles the park I can handle the sun's and the Earth's magnetoshpheric data.
02-19-12, 02:27 PM #10
02-19-12, 03:37 PM #11
That's enopugh for now or we are waiting for what's next?
Thanx for looking at this.
02-20-12, 08:08 AM #12
What in the world is this doing in Earth Science? There is scant scientific content. The OP is loaded with pseudo-science and bizarre claims. This should be in pseudo-science or alternative theories.
02-20-12, 08:48 AM #13
This is my thread. As in "Work Cell" manufacturing philosophies, it is my job to first fix a problem on the assembly line before getting help, I'm the inherent "first level moderator."
This is in Earth Science because it is about the Earth's systems. Contribute or don't, but insults will be reported. I've been told to do that.
Last edited by HectorDecimal; 02-20-12 at 08:52 AM. Reason: minor content
02-20-12, 09:38 AM #14
From what I can piece together, it would seem the end of the Maunder Minimum wakened not only the sun's activity but possibly the supervolcano as well.I'm of the opinion that it is not impossible for those leaks to be the earliest stages of fracture, thus eruption and caused by a thaw after such a long deep freeze..should Yellowstone become subject to another sunspot minimum caused deep freeze, only localized, it is possible the caldera's plate could fracture more and sprout new geysers.If so, and it broke up into constant steam vents, the aquifers from surrounding states could likely be drained into this supersaturation event process as we know the geysers to be. My last look at the aquifers from Wyoming and surrounding states, suggests the caldera would act as one large hot spring. This would progressively bubble over and fill in the basins in those areas. If the steam and water continued to bubble, the flow could create new tributaries meandering the water eventually to the eastern states.the core [of the Sun] has recently spat out a major plasma burstinternal plasma activity is still seeming to be affected by the planets' external magnetic symmetries affecting an isolated area on the sun.
Sorry if that offends you.
02-20-12, 10:00 AM #15I have some other work to do at the moment, but I'll take this toward the caldera in a while.
Just so it be known. I'm reporting any posts that bare the slightest tenor of insults or other disruption. I'm breaking new ground. There will be errors. So far I've predicted 4 flares in a row with reasonable accuracy. That is not pseudoscience, it's a fact that can be proven. Bizarre? Scientific research does seem that at times.
What does the sun's magnetic field have to do with Yellowstone's potentially errupting, whether in the future or begun 500 years ago? That is chiefly what I'm looking to investigate here.
In the mid 70's two reasonably well known scientists, Gribbons and PLagueman, wrote "The Jupiter Effect." At that time it caused a lot of commotion, still, it was pseudoiscience because it failed to include many known works that failed it from the get go. The main failing issue was that the prediction was made upon the idea that gravity would stack up and affect the earth's seismology enough to produce "the big one" in California. They left out the FermiLab findings that gravity, although having infinite range, had infinitesimal strength. Electromagnetism is different. Strong, short range and polar. It does have a domino effect.
When we see the Auroras, we soon after see the effects in seismology reports from the USGS. I get those in my email if they are above 6 around the planet. I'm going to change that to include above 4 in the US. You can get those reports too. Anyone can.
The solar wind does affect geoseismic activity. Solar flares affect the solar wind.
There's another little step to understanding how solar activity can affect the Yellowstone Caldera. We need readings. I have a big workload and, with the temps gettting warmer, that will get even bigger. In that, I'm saying "a little help collecting data would be nice." I posted a thread in engineering to see if anyone could imagine what some designs I have actually depict. They are houseboats. They incorporate a Faraday Cage type shield. They have a new thermal electric generator process I'm working on that already works, but needs to get out of the "Red Green" duct tape phase. I think we can all learn in this thread, about something we as scientists have an obligation to explore and answer for the sake of humanity. I'm taking this from the perspective that it could go into its next phase of erruption soon and that phase may be ushered in by a new "little ice-age."
Last edited by HectorDecimal; 02-20-12 at 10:02 AM. Reason: minor typos
02-20-12, 11:14 AM #16
02-20-12, 11:18 AM #17
So far I've predicted 4 flares in a row with reasonable accuracy. That is not pseudoscience, it's a fact that can be proven..
The main failing issue was that the prediction was made upon the idea that gravity would stack up and affect the earth's seismology enough to produce "the big one" in California. They left out the FermiLab findings that gravity, although having infinite range, had infinitesimal strength. Electromagnetism is different. Strong, short range and polar. It does have a domino effect.
When we see the Auroras, we soon after see the effects in seismology reports from the USGS.
The solar wind does affect geoseismic activity.
Solar flares affect the solar wind.
I think we can all learn in this thread, about something we as scientists have an obligation to explore and answer for the sake of humanity. I'm taking this from the perspective that it could go into its next phase of erruption soon and that phase may be ushered in by a new "little ice-age."
Last edited by origin; 02-20-12 at 11:20 AM. Reason: Whoa, the thread moved during my post, that felt weird.
02-20-12, 01:33 PM #18
Here you admit you are only 21 but in your introductory post you claim MANY year's experience! "My dog ate my diplomas, so don't ask so I don't end up sounding like Bob Lazar. Nontheless, I have both formal and autodidactic education, augmented by many years of work in the engineering fields, the arts and as an independent reseach, self funded."
Everyone begins with a certain amount of credibility and respect by default when they initially join this place. HOWEVER, you have shot yourself down to exactly ZERO!!!
After having put these two pieces together AND having read several of your rather idiotic posts and claims I have assessed your value here to be somewhere below whale droppings - which are found the lowest points on the ocean!
Yes, feel free to report me - I have no fear because I speak the truth and your very words (all over this place!!) serve to condemn you more than I ever could!!!!!!!!!!
02-20-12, 04:26 PM #19
Never mind. As pointed out above, I see you have difficulties with English as well as being civil.
What country do you come from?
02-21-12, 07:36 AM #20
HectorDecimal did you find any of the supporting data or citations that I asked about in my post?
Also you wrote:
the core has recently spat out a major plasma burst
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