The Thirteen Percent

[joepistole]

Well, let's look at two special elections going on right now with actual candidates:

For a case study, look at two special elections that are coming up this month, one in a solidly-Democratic New York City district and one in a rural, Republican-leaning district in Nevada. In both elections, the Democratic candidates have lambasted the Republican nominees for supporting entitlement cuts and holding extreme views on the social safety net. In the decidedly liberal confines of Queens and Brooklyn, the Republican candidate has actually embraced such controversial views, and even said he opposed a bill that provided benefits to victims of 9/11.

The Democrats’ attacks haven’t resonated. Instead, dissatisfaction with Obama is so great that the Republican candidate in Nevada is poised to win in a landslide, and the Democrat is barely getting help from the national party. And in the special election race to replace former Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner in New York, polls from both sides show a close race.

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/a...tmare-20110906

If a Democrat is having a hard time getting elected in New York City, well, we may be in for another Obama inspired wave election come 2012.

It is not suprising that an article from a conservative journal would have a distinctly conservative spin on those special elections. The Nevada district is a Republican district, so it would not be suprising to see it go Republican. The New York district seat was held by a Democrat. But that does not make it a Democrat district. Not every congressional district in New York is Democrat.

Your article makes a lot of unsupported claims which I am sure is mana to the ears of Republican/Tea Party devotees. But that does not make the claims true.

Let me remind you of New York 21, a solidly Republican district recently went to a Democrat. And the Democrat campainged on all the issues listed as a liability for Democrats.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...n-to-the-wire/

And let me remind you that Senator Reid (Democrat) was supposed to be a slam dunk looser in the last election. Despite Reid's unpopularity, Reid retained his senate seat. Why? Because Republicans ran one of those Tea Party extremists against him, Sharon Angle. The beauty of Bachmann and Perry is that Democrats don't have to paint them as anything. They do it well themselves. If the Republican debate was any indication last night, I don't think Dems have much to worry about. There were only to candidates on the floor who actually answered questions directed at them. And neither of them has a snowball's chance in Hell of attaining the nomination. I just love the way Bachmann and Perry act like a message recorder - providing the standard talking point regardless of the question asked.

Personally, I do hope you guys nominate Perry or Bachmann. Last presidential election cycle you, limbaugh and company advocated that Republicans should vote in the Democrat primaries for the weakest Democrat. I may return the favor this cycle by voting for someone like Bachmann or Perry.

[Tiassa]

Personally, I do hope you guys nominate Perry or Bachmann.

One thing I think will emerge in the aftermath of the Tea Party is the idea that for everything they screw up, it always seems to benefit the corporate masters of this astroturf phenomenon. Now, that seems obvious, but the subtext here is that I really do wonder if the Tea Party will ever wake up to how it's being played.

Everything points toward it, and a Perry nomination (the more likely) would only demonstrate the point. The risk is that Obama can be thumbscrewed like he has been, because the economic conservative outlook can only successfully be delivered by the alleged liberal in the room; coming from anyone else, it is subject to the usual litany of conspiracy theories.

It's a conspiracy theory wrapped in a conspiracy theory zipped neatly inside a dirty down vest.

We have to start entertaining the possibility that the Tea Party really is that stupid.

[joepistole]

One thing I think will emerge in the aftermath of the Tea Party is the idea that for everything they screw up, it always seems to benefit the corporate masters of this astroturf phenomenon. Now, that seems obvious, but the subtext here is that I really do wonder if the Tea Party will ever wake up to how it's being played.

Everything points toward it, and a Perry nomination (the more likely) would only demonstrate the point. The risk is that Obama can be thumbscrewed like he has been, because the economic conservative outlook can only successfully be delivered by the alleged liberal in the room; coming from anyone else, it is subject to the usual litany of conspiracy theories.

It's a conspiracy theory wrapped in a conspiracy theory zipped neatly inside a dirty down vest.

We have to start entertaining the possibility that the Tea Party really is that stupid.

I am way past entertaining the possibility.

People like the Koch brothers don't pump 100 million plus into a movement without expecting a payback.

[madanthonywayne]

.

Personally, I do hope you guys nominate Perry or Bachmann. Last presidential election cycle you, limbaugh and company advocated that Republicans should vote in the Democrat primaries for the weakest Democrat. I may return the favor this cycle by voting for someone like Bachmann or Perry.

I'd have genuinely preferred Clinton to Obama so a vote for her was a win win. However, if you vote for Bachman or Perry and they subsequently win the general election (a possibility I wouldn't rule out, especially for Perry), how will you feel?

Meanwhile, the Republicans seem poised to make a shocking upset pickup in New York:

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal...publican-2.php

[joepistole]

I'd have genuinely preferred Clinton to Obama so a vote for her was a win win. However, if you vote for Bachman or Perry and they subsequently win the general election (a possibility I wouldn't rule out, especially for Perry), how will you feel?

I am sure you would have preferred anyone but Obama for POTUS because Obama delivered healthcare reform. Clinton made big promises but in the end fell into bed with the industry. And that is probably why Obama won and Clinton lost.

From my perspective, if a Republican wins, it matters little which Republican wins. They will all be exceptionally disasterous for the country. From a practical point of view there is no difference between a Bachmann, a Perry or a Romney. Given the positions they must take to get the nomination, they will never be able to govern should they attain the office of POTUS. So if any Republican wins, I will be bundled up and prepared for the second coming.

Meanwhile, the Republicans seem poised to make a shocking upset pickup in New York:

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal...publican-2.php

I am sure you want a Republican to win this election. But this district is far less partisan that New York 21 which was staunchly Republican. A Democrat had not been elected in that district in many decades. But it went Democrat on the issues - especially Medicare.

What is clear is that this election cycle is going to be very expensive for Republicans. They have been out spending Democrats by several fold only to take serious losses in Wisconsin and New York. And in this particular election the Republican is spending 4 times as much at the Democrat.

Time will tell. But if I were you, I would not count my chickens before the eggs hatch.