Poll: Will Greece Default on it's debt?

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  1. #141
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    I think this particular auditer was talking US banks..

    The Central Banks of Cambodia or Ethiopia would not make much of a dent in world economics..

    Greece still has a long way to go in a very short time..

  2. #142
    All aboard, me Hearties! Captain Kremmen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael View Post

    The Greek people are the first living example of a nation-wide case of Stockholm Syndrome.....
    Greece is no longer a democracy.
    It is being run by an appointed Prime Minister, a banker,
    one of the founders of the Euro,
    who is running his little hen-house like the fox he is.
    This is from November:

    Greece appointed a new Prime Minister in Lucas Papademos yesterday in a bid to make vital changes to stop the esclation of the huge financial crisis. Mr Papademos was one of the founders of the Euro and served as Vice Prsident of the ECB from 2002 to 2010 so has plenty of experience.Questions do lie over whether Greece has gone to far to be rescued and its removal from the Eurozone is only a formality.

    See http://www.onefinancialmarkets.com/m...cas-papademos/

  3. #143
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    Fitch has downgraded Greece to a " C " from " CCC "..

    More to come ???

  4. #144
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    "... In the space of two months, the ECB has now injected more than a trillion euros into the financial system via its LTRO offerings, which has all but eliminated the threat of a credit crunch from the banking system. In addition, rates on 10-year bonds have plunged in the Eurozone. ..."

    from: http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/rep...07c30c8af2b5c4

    This 2nd time 800 banks (or sort of banks) took the money (vs. 532 the first LTRO time). As in the US some just went back to the ECB but more was used to buy their government´s bonds. Thus interest rates on bonds have dramatically fallen. (Italy´s from >7% to 5.3%, for example.) This is just proving the chance of defalut (defined as not paying face value when due) can be driven to near zero, with printing presses, as US is doing. China may about then allow you to buy appreciating RMBs so it becomes the main reserve currency and China then gets to pay for its imports with printed paper as US could for decades.

    Some day soon even dumb bankers will understand, in US too, that you are sure to loss purchasing power to the flood of fiat paper. When they do, then the "flight to safety" (US dollar) is over and it crashes as any real asset is a better investment - even sacks of rice. China realized that back in 2007 and started getting out of falling value dollars by buying real assets.

    For details of what and when, see:
    http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.ph...3&postcount=74 Their move out of dollars is accelerating - so much so that their absolute holdings (not just realative fraction in dollars) has been dropping for sevaral months DESPITE a record trade surplus with the US pumping dollars into China.

    More than 6 years ago I projected this run on the dollar would come on or before Halloween 2014 and I still see no need to change that date.
    Last edited by Billy T; 02-29-12 at 02:31 PM.

  5. #145
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    ".
    More than 6 years ago I projected this run on the dollar would come on or before Halloween 2014 and I still see no need to change that date.
    I will keep that in mind...just to be in the safe side, need to find a place to go for a year or so...and hide...I have Africa and India to go to besides Canada and USA. The whole world will collapse so find a nice place to stay healthy until people redo the money situation...

  6. #146
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    In the "many a slip between cup and the lip" department, this just in:

    "... The FT is reporting that the Eurozone has decided to delay the approval of the €71.5 billion tranche of the bailout package earmarked for Greece.

    The decision is in response to reports that the Greek government has not yet met all of the terms of the bailout loan package.

    However, the FT says that finance ministers have signed off on the balance of the funds to go forward with the €206B debt swap plan.

    In a separate report, the WSJ reported that according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, final approval of the bailout is expected on March 9th. ..."

    From: http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/rep...e035ace7dbe428

    Also the whole idea that "voluntary exchange" does not trigger the credit default swap insurance contracts into effect, may be void:

    "... The group will now probably be asked to determine whether collective action clauses, or CACS, being used by Greece to impel investors to participate in a wider exchange of bonds that would trigger the swaps.
    The 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) bailout for Greece is testing the sanctity of the market for credit-default swaps and their effectiveness as a hedge against losses on government bonds.

    “They will have to enforce CACS,” said Alessandro Giansanti, a senior rates strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “At that point the exchange will become coercive* and that will be a restructuring event for CDS.”

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...t-markets.html

    * Billy T comment Very unlikely many will agree to take 53% loss and hold new bonds, if they bought a CDS - better to not agree and and try to collect 100% in cash (no new Greek bonds) from bank or firm who issued the CDS insurance policy against default.

    Next day by edit, some details on the CDS and bond swap:

    "... Greece is waiting for private creditors to sign off on its bailout before the country can secure its €130 billion rescue package from the eurozone. The deadline for that signoff is Friday, and Greece must receive the rescue package before March 20 to avoid triggering a default on its sovereign debt. ..."
    From: http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/04/mark....htm?hpt=hp_t3
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-04-12 at 12:40 PM.

  7. #147
    I saw some interesting items by Nirakar at Post 10. While I am working with Greece for other items, I am going to keep this in mind as we are doing major work in Africa to about $10 Billion now. Need to find out what these Mafia will be doing...

  8. #148
    MARCH 10, 2012
    Moody's declares Greece in default of debt

    We had a score of 19 to 4, so it seems we predicted this one nearly ONE YEAR in advance. Who knows, maybe Sciforums can create it's own "ratings agency"?

    According to Moody's, Greece defaulted on its debt. Except it got NONE of the benefits of defaulting and all of the pain. At least the way I see it. They're actually going to be forced to give over ALL of their gold reserves to the ECB (oh, but according to Ben Bernanke Gold's not money) and most of their infrastructure and publicly held assets will be forcefully handed over. Greeks will be forced to compete head-to-head with Germany (which is a joke) and are now debt-slaves trapped in the Euro. Apparently Greeks make good Cattle. Now, lets see if the Italians and Spanish line up in their stalls like good little Cattle.

    Take a good look America - there's a stall with your name on it.


    NOTE: Seems like the only people with a bit of backbone are the Icelandic. Perhaps from their Viking past?
    Last edited by Michael; 03-11-12 at 04:11 AM.

  9. #149
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    Bonds due tommorow (as I recall) have been swapped for new bonds with less than half the face value and paying lower interest rate (for 30 years, I think) but most of those who paid for insurance against default (bought CDSs) will get (I think) Euros, not new bonds at 78.5% of the old face value.

    "... Sellers of credit-default swaps on Greece will have to pay as much as $2.5 billion to settle contracts triggered by the nation’s debt restructuring.
    The settlement was determined after dealers agreed a final value for Greek bonds of 21.5 percent of face value at an auction, ..."

    From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...s-auction.html

    PS I said "most" as some sellers of insurance many not be able to eat their share of the 2.5 billion cost of pay out. All in All, this has saved the CDS industry, which may be too bad, but I´m not sure of that. - Modern finance is so complex that this off loading of SOME risk may be necessary for lower interest cost government financing.)

    Anyway, the 20March due date dust has all settled - EU gets to do it all again in about three months, as I recall. I was surprised that the old bonds, not exchanged and now in default, were worth 21.5% of face - to me at says many think Greece will eventually recover a sound economy and pay them off, not at face value but significantly more than 21.5% of it - perhaps half as that would be a 7% return if done 10 Years from now. (If done at 50% on face in only 7 years, that is a 10% return to the buyers.)

    To be able to borrow at modest cost, I think Argentina has paid off its bonds some of which were 10 years in default. Venezuela (Hugo Chávez) and the IMF helped remove many from market over hang, as I recall and there were two refinancing like the Greeks have just done also. Argentina is so rich in natural resources (including productive farms) that despite one of the world´s most economically inept governments, it is prospering again.
    Last edited by Billy T; 03-19-12 at 02:25 PM.

  10. #150
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    Greece is small enough part of EU economy, that it can be (but may not be, however) saved. Spain is the real, probably insoluvable, problem:

    "... Spain sold €1.1 billion of 3-year bonds at an average yield of 2.89%, which was up from the 2.44% seen at the previous auction. The bid to cover ratio suggested weak demand at 2.4 versus the prior auction’s 5.0.

    Spain also sold €973 million of 4-year bonds at an average yield of 4.32% vs. prior 3.38%. The bid to cover was 2.5 vs. 2.6. Finally, Spain sold €489 million of 8-year bonds at an average yield of 5.39% vs. prior 5.16%. The bid to cover was 3.0 vs. 2.0.

    Stock markets in Europe as well as futures in the U.S. have sold off on the results of the auction as debt spreads widen. ..."

    From data released only minutes ago by Spain. Read more at: http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/rep...b147e9ad7a803a

    Also: "... Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain’s situation is one of “extreme difficulty” and signaled that his budget cuts are less painful than a bailout would be, as demand for the nation’s debt slumped at an auction. ..." From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...and-drops.html
    Last edited by Billy T; 04-04-12 at 09:28 AM.

  11. #151
    uniquely dreadful S.A.M.'s Avatar
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    Hi Billy, Michael hows stuff?

    Billy I found this interesting article on Greece and wondered what your take was

    JAY: Is not one of the big objectives here privatization? Will the Greek
    government have to sell everything off? Apparently they’re talking now about
    selling airports and seaports.

    HUDSON: Yes and also the water systems, the sewer systems, real estate, the
    islands. The debt crisis is being used to create a grab bag for private
    interests to take ownership over the Greek public sector. And bankers and
    people who have a plan usually do much better in a crisis than people who
    don’t have a plan. So this indeed seems to be it. Finance today achieves
    what military invasion used to do in times past. So the new mode of warfare
    is financial, not military. It’s much cheaper and it’s much safer for the
    country doing the attack.

    To enforce privatization is why yesterday [February 14] the European Union
    said, wait a minute, we’re not even going to lend you the money to pay our
    own banks that have bought your bonds, unless you spell out exactly what
    you’re going to privatize and commit to it now. And this is a sticking
    point. In the past, the Greeks have made promises, and thank heaven they
    haven’t privatized, because once they begin to sell things off, there’s
    going to be a real squeeze and even more of an opposition. So you’re right.
    The bailout is a property grab.
    http://michael-hudson.com/2012/02/greek-strategy/

  12. #152
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S.A.M. View Post
    ... Billy I found this interesting article on Greece and wondered what your take was
    http://michael-hudson.com/2012/02/greek-strategy/
    Basically it is quite likely, but a little different for banks taking the home in a default when owner can´t pay back loans as promised. I.e. there is no mortgage on any Greek island and few on any specific assets.

    I tend to think that in the end, perhaps after Spain is not paying and the ECB can not bail them out, then you will see a little selling of assets in Club Med, to Chinese and other buyers, but more of "F**k you to the bankers et.al. holding bonds, etc. - You got your blood money already in years of interested paid." No way are you taking our historic assets, or land."

    That is basically what Argentina, and several others did. Yes, their access to credit will dry up and they will suffer, but eventually recover with lower living standards on average and higher rates of tax due, actually collected. Perhaps some of the large and successful Greek shipping firms will get "nationalization bonds" they can not find any buyers for in the next 20 years with government management decreasing their earnings but some better funds flowing to the government than the taxes the owner are now not fully paying.

    This is all taking place in the context of the decline of the petrodollar system. In a few years no one will need dollar to buy oil (and probably would not accept dollars either) World has learned (or is learning) that dollars are just paper. US debt is not something anyone expects will be paid in purchasing power of the value of the goods that were given for those dollars. world is learning how stupid it has been to give goods of real value for fiat money that printing presses can make in unlimited quantity.

    The IAEA has found zero evidence than Iran is building nuclear weapons. They could enrich U235 to the level required and have a bomb in less than 10 years, but more than 5. N. Korean has many dozens. Why is the US focus on the POTENTIAL for Iran to get one?

    Answer: Iran has oil and new (soon to be active in 2H12) petro bourse. Selling oil with no payment in dollars required. China currently is building two super refineries in Iran as payment for the oil (about 45% of what Iran exports). India is also doing barter deals for the oil it gets from Iran. Paying with grains, I think, but you may know. Interestingly within the last month as part of the rapidly growing Asian efforts, lead by China, to cease using dollars in trade, Japan just lent India 15 billion yen, to be mainly used by India to pay for Iranian oil.

    I have long predicted the collapse of the dollar by Halloween 2014, and things seem to be moving along right on schedule. I don´t think the US will go to war to stop Iran from selling oil for other than dollars, as it did in Iraq. The oil fields of Saudi Arabia are in the near coastal regions where the vast majority of the population is Shiite. Impossible to guard 100s of kilometers of oil pipelines from people willing to die to blow holes in them. Also Iran has several dozen small subs and more than 1000 small boats that can drop mines in the straight of Hormuze.

    The Russians benefiting greatly by selling oil at $500/ barrel and long term friends of Iran would not admit to have supplied very modern bottom mines - hard to clear as only acoustic and magnetic signals from cables behind a US mine sweepers will not explode them - the large pressure wave signature of a loaded oil tanker must be present too, to set them off. - No way to simulate that.

    Best US can do (and is doing) is to pressure friendly buyers and banks not to buy or finance Iran´s oil sales, but Asian nations, India included, need that oil and where there is a will to get it, they will find a way to do so - Lots more barter initially but then later the Yuan (RMB) will be the dominate reserve currency and used to pay.

  13. #153
    uniquely dreadful S.A.M.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    Basically it is quite likely, but a little different for banks taking the home in a default when owner can´t pay back loans as promised. I.e. there is no mortgage on any Greek island and few on any specific assets.

    I tend to think that in the end, perhaps after Spain is not paying and the ECB can not bail them out, then you will see a little selling of assets in Club Med, to Chinese and other buyers, but more of "F**k you to the bankers et.al. holding bonds, etc. - You got your blood money already in years of interested paid." No way are you taking our historic assets, or land."

    That is basically what Argentina, and several others did. Yes, their access to credit will dry up and they will suffer, but eventually recover with lower living standards on average and higher rates of tax due, actually collected.
    what do you think of the notion [in the article I linked] that Greece is a test run for Germany and France? Do you think such austerity measures could be used across Europe? I'm wondering because of the way the Chinese are considering buying up European debt. Could they buy into public infrastructure in Europe?

  14. #154
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S.A.M. View Post
    what do you think of the notion [in the article I linked] that Greece is a test run for Germany and France? Do you think such austerity measures could be used across Europe? I'm wondering because of the way the Chinese are considering buying up European debt. Could they buy into public infrastructure in Europe?
    Greece is very different from at least Germany not any "test case" I can think of and not much of one for France.

    I don´t think "austerity measures" will do much good in countries as damaged economically as Greece, Spain, Portugal and porbably Italy. They will have negative growth, increasing unemployment, greater government borrowing (when someone will lend) to reduce suffering of their voters as direct result of new "austerity measures."

    Yes the Chinese and some others with cash, will buy infrastructure in the weaker European countries, and at good discounts to normal worth, but may regret they did if these countries sink deeper into chaos of political uncertainities their "austerity measures" will make.

    China has already bought about a year ago a large part, nearly haf as I recall, of Portugual´s largest electric utility company. - They will buy things like that which will be the lasts to go out of business or which they can used to meet Asian´s needs. For example, farms and port facilities. China (and even Brazil) will get more political influence in global institutions for their loans to the IMF as partial compensation for the cash.

  15. #155
    Valued Senior Member Carcano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    China has already bought about a year ago a large part, nearly half as I recall, of Portugal's largest electric utility company.
    How foolish of both parties. Electric utilities should be owned by the state.

    No nation should ever put its infrastructure into private hands...and especially not foreign hands.

  16. #156
    Please use Sugar Cane Alcohol Billy T's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carcano View Post
    ... Electric utilities should be owned by the state. ...
    Why? Would the cost of production of a KWH be less or more?

    I think much more if with each change in political party in power, the top management is changed - replaced by big campaign contributors instead of experts with say on average 20+ years of experience working their way up in the electric power industry.

    In general, I tend to think that "natural monopolies" like electric power need good regulation, plus public service commissions ruling on rate increases, not governments mismanaging them and / treating them as revenue sources few can duck producing quite steady month revenue.

    Does you idea extend to roads too? For example, would you rather drive from DC to NYC on state owned US1 or the private, profit making, tax paying, turnpikes?

  17. #157
    Valued Senior Member Carcano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy T View Post
    Why? Would the cost of production of a KWH be less or more?

    I think much more if with each change in political party in power, the top management is changed - replaced by big campaign contributors instead of experts with say on average 20+ years of experience working their way up in the electric power industry.

    In general, I tend to think that "natural monopolies" like electric power need good regulation, plus public service commissions ruling on rate increases, not governments mismanaging them and / treating them as revenue sources few can duck producing quite steady month revenue.

    Does you idea extend to roads too? For example, would you rather drive from DC to NYC on state owned US1 or the private, profit making, tax paying, turnpikes?
    I like my Canadian government owned highways just fine...as well as my government run health care system.

    And no, there shouldn't ideally be any corporate campaign contributions.
    Campaign advertising should be strictly limited and funded by citizens only.

  18. #158
    uniquely dreadful S.A.M.'s Avatar
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    Thank you Billy

  19. #159
    Quote Originally Posted by S.A.M. View Post
    Hi Billy, Michael hows stuff?

    Billy I found this interesting article on Greece and wondered what your take was



    http://michael-hudson.com/2012/02/greek-strategy/
    Hi SAM, I`m fine thank you Right now I`m back in Japan. It`s cold, but not too cold. Kind of nice actually. How are things with you?

    RE:Greece
    It`s really hard to say what will happen and who is to blame.
    One thing I think is the Euro is a great example of why would should NOT have a one world currency. Which I`m sure some idiot central banker will come up with when (if) this round of fiat currency implodes.

    IMO Greece shouldn`t have been lent so much money. That only happened because money is cheap and easy to create in fiat currencies. That said, they DID borrow the money and morally should repay what they were lent. THAT SAID, the Greeks will have to default on most if not all of their debt or they`ll live through a generation of hell. The lender took risk and lost. That`s the way the cookie crumbles, as they say.

    Should they be forced to give up their infrastructure? 2500 year old Acropolis? Not if it wasn`t put up as collateral in the original agreement. Banks don`t just get to come in and start making up now rules, I get this and I get that. What? How about your first born as an indentured servant? No way. And Greeks are not being `forced`, they`re just bending over and taking it. I mean, they let a GoldmanSux cronie run their contry (Italy too). Maybe they deserve what they get for being such pushovers? Get your pitchforks for f%ck sakes!

    It`s all very complicated. Greedy banks lent too much. Greedy politicians promised too much. The little guy gets shit on - again.

    Germany`s housing market is bubbling due to all the hot money the ECB just created out of thin air and not worth the paper it`s not printed on.
    Meanwhile the USA keeps printing under the auspices of that idiot Bernanke and China looks like it`s headed for a hard landing. What? You can`t build an economy on buy US Debt which is created out of thin air?

    Interesting times.

    Oh course, if you were Joe, you`d be jubilant. The US government just said employment was up right along with the stock market. According to Joe, Japan was never doing better than on Christmas day 1989 when the Nikkei stock index hit over 38,000. And being a Krugman fanboy, all they really needed to do was print print print and print their way to prosperity. But hey, Krugman did call for a faked Alien invasion to `turn this whole messed up economy around in 8 months`. See, people like Krugman don`t think in terms of limited resources and economic distribution in a free market. They think in terms of unlimited resources and populations of people are actually cattle to be hustled and herded this way or that way and free is only what the Federal Reserve determines it is. Which is why all of our economies are all over the place with no one knowing what anything is really worth.


    RE: Electric companies.
    It`s always best if companies can be managed privately (that`s my opinion) so long as competition can be ensured. Is this the case with electric companies? Can companies compete with one another on EQUAL footing? The public can purchase shares in those companies so in a sense they are publicly owned.

    RE: Canadian healthcare
    I read that laser eye surgery is very cheap in Canada - primarily because it`s NOT covered by health insurance and is open to free market forced. The prices have come down from $5000 to $500. Or so I was told. Canada sits on the world`s second largest oil reserves - enough to melt the rest of the polar ice caps and destroy most of Canada (yeah public health!
    The thing about medicine is, it`s now become such a money racket I think it`d take decades to fix it so it could function as a free market - starting with getting rid of regulation on who can and can not get training in medical school (which is a huge scam).
    Last edited by Michael; 04-09-12 at 04:35 AM.

  20. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael View Post
    Hi SAM, I`m fine thank you Right now I`m back in Japan. It`s cold, but not too cold. Kind of nice actually. How are things with you?

    RE:Greece
    It`s really hard to say what will happen and who is to blame.
    One thing I think is the Euro is a great example of why would should NOT have a one world currency. Which I`m sure some idiot central banker will come up with when (if) this round of fiat currency implodes.

    IMO Greece shouldn`t have been lent so much money. That only happened because money is cheap and easy to create in fiat currencies. That said, they DID borrow the money and morally should repay what they were lent. THAT SAID, the Greeks will have to default on most if not all of their debt or they`ll live through a generation of hell. The lender took risk and lost. That`s the way the cookie crumbles, as they say.

    Should they be forced to give up their infrastructure? 2500 year old Acropolis? Not if it wasn`t put up as collateral in the original agreement. Banks don`t just get to come in and start making up now rules, I get this and I get that. What? How about your first born as an indentured servant? No way. And Greeks are not being `forced`, they`re just bending over and taking it. I mean, they let a GoldmanSux cronie run their contry (Italy too). Maybe they deserve what they get for being such pushovers? Get your pitchforks for f%ck sakes!

    It`s all very complicated. Greedy banks lent too much. Greedy politicians promised too much. The little guy gets shit on - again.

    Germany`s housing market is bubbling due to all the hot money the ECB just created out of thin air and not worth the paper it`s not printed on.
    Meanwhile the USA keeps printing under the auspices of that idiot Bernanke and China looks like it`s headed for a hard landing. What? You can`t build an economy on buy US Debt which is created out of thin air?

    Interesting times.

    Oh course, if you were Joe, you`d be jubilant. The US government just said employment was up right along with the stock market. According to Joe, Japan was never doing better than on Christmas day 1989 when the Nikkei stock index hit over 38,000. And being a Krugman fanboy, all they really needed to do was print print print and print their way to prosperity. But hey, Krugman did call for a faked Alien invasion to `turn this whole messed up economy around in 8 months`. See, people like Krugman don`t think in terms of limited resources and economic distribution in a free market. They think in terms of unlimited resources and populations of people are actually cattle to be hustled and herded this way or that way and free is only what the Federal Reserve determines it is. Which is why all of our economies are all over the place with no one knowing what anything is really worth.
    You are playing fast and loose with the truth again Michael.

    Quote Originally Posted by Michael View Post
    RE: Electric companies.
    It`s always best if companies can be managed privately (that`s my opinion) so long as competition can be ensured. Is this the case with electric companies? Can companies compete with one another on EQUAL footing? The public can purchase shares in those companies so in a sense they are publicly owned.

    RE: Canadian healthcare
    I read that laser eye surgery is very cheap in Canada - primarily because it`s NOT covered by health insurance and is open to free market forced. The prices have come down from $5000 to $500. Or so I was told. Canada sits on the world`s second largest oil reserves - enough to melt the rest of the polar ice caps and destroy most of Canada (yeah public health!
    The thing about medicine is, it`s now become such a money racket I think it`d take decades to fix it so it could function as a free market - starting with getting rid of regulation on who can and can not get training in medical school (which is a huge scam).
    You are correct in this, the American healthcare system is a money racket and certianly not a free market. Ironically, our "socialist" industrial allies have more competitive healthcare markets than we do here in the USA - not to mention cheaper and better quality.

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