Electric cars are a pipe dream

[Syzygys]

an excellent electric car...It is not perfect.

Come on now, if it is excellent, it is perfect!

However, that too will be addressed with newer models.

...and one day even balding will be cured, after all, we cured impotence!!!

The exhaust is so toxic that it is used as a means of suicide!

Try to lick the battery of an electric car, I bet it can get you executed.

All in all, thanks for nothing...

[Syzygys]

#1 Right on the money,Thanks Skeptical.Of course the EV is in it's infancy and I agree if we had a 100 plus years of R&D with the EV

Hey dude, you are supposed to READ the thread before you post, EVs are as fucking old as ICEs, easily 120 years and more.

So you tell me where did that 120 years R&D take you? A 100 miles away....Just like in the 19th century...

[Syzygys]

Spider

All new technologies are expensive.

I don't think the wheel was expensive. Neither sailing. And of course a 120 year old technology is hardly new.

[spidergoat]

One of the most consistent trends of the 20th to 21st century is the increasing demand for energy. As time goes by, we get better and better at conserving energy, with electrical gizmos that become more and more efficient. However, there are more and more gizmos. If you take into account electric cars, and the use of electricity in manufacturing, you can see that more electricity will be required, in spite of the improved efficiencies.

It is also true that the ready supply of abundant energy is one of the drivers of improvements to everyone's life style, and a way to lift poorer peoples out of poverty.

Personally, I think the mid to late 21st century will be characterised by much more abundant energy than the present. I think we have yet barely scratched the surface in developing better energy systems.

I get the electrical gizmos, but what about suburbia? What about the McMansion? Are we caught in a death spiral, clinging to an outmoded way of life?

[Skeptical]

The wheel and sailing were both exceedingly expensive, and both are very cheap today. Of course, when wheel and sailing were new technologies, there was no money. "Expensive" was measured in man-hours to make what you needed. And it took a lot of time.

'Death spiral?'

Hardly. Society in in a state of rapid change. We can try to predict what will come, and get part of it right. But there will be big surprises too. The only think we can be sure of is that the future will be very different.

[spidergoat]

Sail power was free for the taking, and I predict it's coming back. Except for the delivery of goods and emergencies, can you really answer why we need to drive around all the time?

[Skeptical]

Spider

The wind is free but a yacht is not.
The first sailing vessel would have required an enormous number of man hours to build. A dug out canoe prepared with stone tools and fire. A sail woven from dried flax fibre. Mast and steering oar likewise carved using stone tools. Oh yeah. First technologies are a lot more expensive.

[spidergoat]

The indians could build a birch bark canoe in a day. I bet I could fashion a boat just with the materials in my garage.

[Skeptical]

A birch canoe is not a sailing vessel. The simplest one in modern terms is a sailing dinghy. The equivalent in primitive technology would be like the little dug out outrigger sailing canoes used in the Pacific. I have seen them being built in Papua New Guinea. Even with modern steel tools, it takes a month to construct one. Finagle knows how long it originally took using stone tools and fire. I dread to think.

Anyway, we are way off thread here. The point above is simply to illustrate my statement that new technology costs a lot more than established technology. I suspect that most people would agree with that. Maybe there are a very few exceptions, but those few exceptions are not the rule.

[spidergoat]

I think we should build the roads out of smooth stainless steel. Then we can make our cars run on compressed air, like an air hockey table in reverse.

[RAW2000]

Originally posted by Syzygys:
So you tell me where did that 120 years R&D take you? A 100 miles away....Just like in the 19th century...

There's not been 120 years of R&D because oil and car companies won't profit from doing any due to the EV's ability to never break or need repair, a careful owner of a EV could keep it for far longer than a normal car would last for.
Well according to this film anyway http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/ (check out Mel Gibson's bread)

[X-Man2]

Hey dude, you are supposed to READ the thread before you post, EVs are as fucking old as ICEs, easily 120 years and more.

So you tell me where did that 120 years R&D take you? A 100 miles away....Just like in the 19th century...

I cant say what should be said to you due to forum rules.Its NOT how long the EV's have been around rather what has been done with it all this time.There has NOT been any serious attempts or big money poured in to R&D nationwide/worldwide to greatly advance replacements.Of course some small fry have dabbled with EV's and the like but nothing close to whats needed for big advancements.Fossil fuels are center stage now cause thats where we all have concentrated.This is kindergarten logic.

[Syzygys]

(check out Mel Gibson's bread)

I am sure it is very tasty, I just wonder where can I buy it?

Now gentlemen, I really don't care about the economic history of sailing (pretty irrelevant), or WHY there was no R&D in EVs for 100+ years, (I know it) all I want to know is about practical developments (not wishes) in the NEAR future, and how and when do you get full EVs made by the millions per year....

[Skeptical]

Twenty years.

[Syzygys]

I actually agree with the 20 years timeframe. I don't think any company gets even close to the 1 million per year by 2020...(assuming no new technical breakthrough)

But here is the question: If peak oil has already happened and will be (should be) pretty obvious by 2020, isn't 2030 too late to have EVs in massproduction???

[Skeptical]

Syzygys

Peak oil is a bit indeterminate. There are, in fact, substantial sources of fossil fuels untapped. Shale oil is only just getting under way. Shale natural gas is so damn abundant that (at current rates of use) we have 120 years reserves.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...ional-gas.html
Natural gas can be used as compressed natural gas (CNG) to run only slightly modified petrol vehicles. Or else it can be converted to liquid fuel.

Coal can also be converted to liquid fuel. The USA already has a pilot plant making 5000 barrels per day of diesel from coal. In addition, there is still a lot of the world to explore for oil.

All this means that fossil fuels to propel cars, trucks, ships and aircraft will certainly last another 30 years, and probably more.

[spidergoat]

Don't forget, peak oil will ruin the economy. Good luck getting financing on an overpriced electric car just so you can continue to live in a suburban house and drive to a job (that probably won't exist).

[Skeptical]

Spider

You are a pessimist.

Peak oil may be many, many years off. There is no reason to suggest that the slow conversion to other sources of energy will ruin anyone's economy. (Finance companies are much better at doing that!)

The lesson from history is that, in real terms (ie. inflation adjusted), the cost of commodities, which includes energy, keeps being driven down. Oil today is much cheaper than during the oil crisis of the early 1970's. We survived that, and we will survive peak oil also.

[spidergoat]

I think it's already here. Peak oil isn't running out of oil, it's the peak of production, when supply will only be diminishing from now on, regardless of shale. The crisis of the 70's was largely averted by the discovery of North Sea oil. That is not a trend that can be counted on. I'm only a realist as far as energy is concerned. I'm optimistic about our ability to establish a better world with less of it available.

[Syzygys]

Syzygys

Peak oil is a bit indeterminate.

Not really, and your posts proved my point. The only reason you mentioned natural gas, oil shale and such because oil (crude that is) has already peaked.

Just think about it for a moment, I didn't say peak hydrocarbon....