06-24-10, 09:06 PM #261
However, that too will be addressed with newer models.
The exhaust is so toxic that it is used as a means of suicide!
All in all, thanks for nothing...
06-24-10, 09:08 PM #262
06-24-10, 09:10 PM #263
06-24-10, 09:13 PM #264
06-24-10, 09:49 PM #265
The wheel and sailing were both exceedingly expensive, and both are very cheap today. Of course, when wheel and sailing were new technologies, there was no money. "Expensive" was measured in man-hours to make what you needed. And it took a lot of time.
Hardly. Society in in a state of rapid change. We can try to predict what will come, and get part of it right. But there will be big surprises too. The only think we can be sure of is that the future will be very different.
06-24-10, 09:52 PM #266
Sail power was free for the taking, and I predict it's coming back. Except for the delivery of goods and emergencies, can you really answer why we need to drive around all the time?
06-24-10, 10:23 PM #267
The wind is free but a yacht is not.
The first sailing vessel would have required an enormous number of man hours to build. A dug out canoe prepared with stone tools and fire. A sail woven from dried flax fibre. Mast and steering oar likewise carved using stone tools. Oh yeah. First technologies are a lot more expensive.
06-24-10, 11:12 PM #268
The indians could build a birch bark canoe in a day. I bet I could fashion a boat just with the materials in my garage.
06-24-10, 11:54 PM #269
A birch canoe is not a sailing vessel. The simplest one in modern terms is a sailing dinghy. The equivalent in primitive technology would be like the little dug out outrigger sailing canoes used in the Pacific. I have seen them being built in Papua New Guinea. Even with modern steel tools, it takes a month to construct one. Finagle knows how long it originally took using stone tools and fire. I dread to think.
Anyway, we are way off thread here. The point above is simply to illustrate my statement that new technology costs a lot more than established technology. I suspect that most people would agree with that. Maybe there are a very few exceptions, but those few exceptions are not the rule.
06-25-10, 12:13 AM #270
I think we should build the roads out of smooth stainless steel. Then we can make our cars run on compressed air, like an air hockey table in reverse.
06-25-10, 08:58 AM #271Originally posted by Syzygys:
So you tell me where did that 120 years R&D take you? A 100 miles away....Just like in the 19th century...
Well according to this film anyway http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/ (check out Mel Gibson's bread)
06-26-10, 02:15 PM #272
06-27-10, 08:15 PM #273
Now gentlemen, I really don't care about the economic history of sailing (pretty irrelevant), or WHY there was no R&D in EVs for 100+ years, (I know it) all I want to know is about practical developments (not wishes) in the NEAR future, and how and when do you get full EVs made by the millions per year....
06-27-10, 09:45 PM #274
06-28-10, 01:09 PM #275
I actually agree with the 20 years timeframe. I don't think any company gets even close to the 1 million per year by 2020...(assuming no new technical breakthrough)
But here is the question: If peak oil has already happened and will be (should be) pretty obvious by 2020, isn't 2030 too late to have EVs in massproduction???
06-28-10, 03:31 PM #276
Peak oil is a bit indeterminate. There are, in fact, substantial sources of fossil fuels untapped. Shale oil is only just getting under way. Shale natural gas is so damn abundant that (at current rates of use) we have 120 years reserves.
Natural gas can be used as compressed natural gas (CNG) to run only slightly modified petrol vehicles. Or else it can be converted to liquid fuel.
Coal can also be converted to liquid fuel. The USA already has a pilot plant making 5000 barrels per day of diesel from coal. In addition, there is still a lot of the world to explore for oil.
All this means that fossil fuels to propel cars, trucks, ships and aircraft will certainly last another 30 years, and probably more.
06-28-10, 08:18 PM #277
Don't forget, peak oil will ruin the economy. Good luck getting financing on an overpriced electric car just so you can continue to live in a suburban house and drive to a job (that probably won't exist).
06-28-10, 08:49 PM #278
You are a pessimist.
Peak oil may be many, many years off. There is no reason to suggest that the slow conversion to other sources of energy will ruin anyone's economy. (Finance companies are much better at doing that!)
The lesson from history is that, in real terms (ie. inflation adjusted), the cost of commodities, which includes energy, keeps being driven down. Oil today is much cheaper than during the oil crisis of the early 1970's. We survived that, and we will survive peak oil also.
06-28-10, 09:27 PM #279
I think it's already here. Peak oil isn't running out of oil, it's the peak of production, when supply will only be diminishing from now on, regardless of shale. The crisis of the 70's was largely averted by the discovery of North Sea oil. That is not a trend that can be counted on. I'm only a realist as far as energy is concerned. I'm optimistic about our ability to establish a better world with less of it available.
06-28-10, 09:43 PM #280
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