N=R*Fs*Fp*Ne*Fl*Fi*Fc*L The famous Drake Equation gives the number of intelligent civilizations able to communicate within our own galaxy. R is the average rate of star formation in the galaxy, equal to about 20 stars per year. Fs is the fraction of stars that are suitable suns for planetary systems, approximately 0.1. Fp is the number of suitable suns with planetary systems, now thought to be around 1/2. Ne is the mean number of planets that are located within the Continuously Habitable Zone ( http://www.ess.sunysb.edu/fwalter/GIFS/hz2.gif ). Fl is the fraction of such planets on which life actually originates. Fi represents the fraction of such planets on which, after the origin of life, some form of intelligence arises. Fc is the fraction of such intelligent species that develop the ability and desire to communicate with other civilizations. L is the mean lifetime (in years) of a communicative civilization (because it depends on the NATURE of the race of intelligent beings it is the most uncertain factor in Drake's Equation). The Drake Equation. Try it for yourself here: http://www.seds.org/~rme/drakeeqn.htm As pretentious, conceited and downright absurd a statement there ever was regarding the Drake Equation, is it possible that WE, with all our faults and foibles, are the highest order of intelligence in our galaxy? Our universe? Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Possible? Yeah. But it's much, much more probable that all the other orders of intelligence -- both high and low -- are foibled and faulted, too. Within the Universe, there is no perfect force free from limitation, no physical entity free of natural restriction of freedom of action. We're all bozos on this bus. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
The materials required for life are common throughout the universe. The conditions in which they might become life as here are also quite common. The only difference between all those organic compounds floating around out there and cells is time. And the only difference between basic cells and us is time.
I prefer clowns myself. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
So what is the probability that an alien civilization has created a class similar to clowns? Maybe we should have a new equation....let's call it the Bozo equation.....
Timing is everything! The SETI folks are thinking about the same thing. Frank Drake has estimated the average lifetime of technologically adept civilizations at 10 thousand years. This is not overly optimistic. After all, Homo sapiens has been around for 300,000 years, so another 10 thousand isn’t much. Indeed, it’s a bit of a downer to think that once technology gains a foothold we are near the end of our ride.But suppose Drake is right. Then humans are in the bottom 1 percent of technological advancement, no matter how many civilizations are out there. We are among the new kids on the block, and if the number of alien societies is small or the average lifetime is larger, then we could easily be the newest kid. Technological progress on Earth, at least recently, has been very fast. Indeed, the growth in computer power – one measure of our prowess – has been exponential. If this is a general phenomenon for intelligent societies, then we are incredibly primitive in comparison to more than 99% of the civilizations we could detect. Is there intelligent life on Earth? By our standards, maybe. But by theirs, we are probably as dumb as doorknobs. I, for one, hope to develop a little humility. http://www.space.com/searchforlife/seti_dumbest_020131.html
