Spectre of the Cold War: North Korea and the next war.

Discussion in 'World Events' started by FreeMason, Jan 13, 2005.

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What are your thoughts of a future North Korean conflict?

  1. Yes there will be a conflict, and it will be bloodier for the United States than World War 2

    3 vote(s)
    14.3%
  2. Yes there will be a conflict and it will be as bloody or arduous as the first Korean conflit

    1 vote(s)
    4.8%
  3. Yes there will be a conflict but it will be a land-slide victory for US or UN forces

    4 vote(s)
    19.0%
  4. No there will be no military engagements of any significant size

    13 vote(s)
    61.9%
  1. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    note: Michigander and Canuck are the correct spellings

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  3. Spyke Registered Senior Member

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    That's not even so. All of the US military's estimates I've seen, including the site you are so fond of using, Global Security, do not call for such a US buildup. What they do expect is a buildup of SK reserves after the immediate NK invasion has been checked. While it is expected that it could be a really nasty affair, every hypthetical I've read predicts an ultimate US-SK victory, and none of them have anticipated a need for a US buildup such as you've described.
     
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  5. Undecided Banned Banned

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    ]I understand that SK has a lot of people in Seoul but I would not say SK is a Third World country?

    I never said SK was a third world country, what I said (since you seem to continually selectively read what I write) is that if Seoul is destroyed along with the surrounding areas, SK would become a third world country because the vast majority of the countries capital, and industry is located in that area. Please Mike…re-read what I write and don’t fall into diatribe, like this:

    That’s like saying SK, HK, Taiwan and Singapore are the equivalent of Indonesia or Madagascar. Not true.

    No shit…

    From the earlier posts, I was under the impression that it is SK who, of the two, has the vastly superior force.

    No it doesn’t have a “vastly” superior force, stop with the value judgements because you simply don’t know what you are talking about. I do (I don’t want to sound arrogant but…) because I have written an essay about NK’s military, and read many sources, of which two are books in my personal library. The differential btwn the two is not that significant. Yes SK is now marginally more powerful in terms of technology, but NK still has sheer power on its side, and SK military is not that great at organization, and communications. Also we cannot forget about élan, I doubt the SK troops have the same passion as NK troops.

    That isn’t to say Seoul wouldn’t be bombed – and maybe even flat – but I don’t think NK is going to cross the DMZ fight their way through the SK army and surround the capitol.

    I believe that without American support they can do it, their advances will surely stop afterwards, but NK’s objective is that city and she will do anything necessary to get it. Also once NK loses (should it) who is going to occupy NK? SK doesn’t have the men, or the capital to do it, essentially you are breeding the seeds of big problems.

    I do not think that NK has the ability to even ignite a launching pad capable of delivery a nuclear missile, without it being blown to pieces anyhow.

    She doesn’t need one, she has TEL’s that are located inside the mountains that are safe from SK attack, that is SK’s greatest weakness, she doesn’t have the real capability to do offensive attacks against NK, NK can do it against SK. While SK may be able to stop the physical movement of NK troops into the rest of SK, she cannot attack the vast network of underground tunnels. Again Michael…please refrain from making unsupported assumptions.

    Never mind actually getting a nuclear bomb to make it in to the air without crapping out.

    According to the CIA NK has workable nuclear weapons designs, she doesn’t need to actually test it because she was there with Pakistan in 1998 which is essentially the same bomb.

    NK hasn’t demonstrated they even have a nuclear bomb and you seem to say Tokyo’s nuclear-toast. I just think that, that is typical of US paranoia and it seems odd coming from a Canuck.

    Its not paranoia, its supported facts sorry if you don’t like it.

    As I’ve read before, (Janes) when NK launched their first missile over Japan; China, America, SK and Japan all knew well in advance that this was taking place.

    They had no idea, it was a shock to all nations at the time, if they knew they would have been able to stop it from happening, or wouldn’t be so surprised.

    I do not think those sorts of missiles are mobile?

    Sadly they are…

    And a few crack squads are not going to capture a city. I think Iraq is testament to what it takes to capture a city and it’s been years now and it still isn’t captured so three months seems short indeed.

    How many ppl do you think will invade SK, it won’t be under 100,000. Those “crack squads” are there to disrupt SK forces behind the front.

    Spyke:

    That's not even so. All of the US military's estimates I've seen, including the site you are so fond of using, Global Security, do not call for such a US buildup.

    Well unlike you I don’t pretend to know what I am saying I can prove it:

    I've read predicts an ultimate US-SK victory, and none of them have anticipated a need for a US buildup such as you've described.

    Laughable considering what I wrote…
     
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  7. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    I can not find the information on Janes and I think I need a subscription so in lieu this’ll have to do:AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 47
     
  8. Undecided Banned Banned

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    From what I know it was a genuine shock...if I had find a source I will provide it.
     
  9. zanket Human Valued Senior Member

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    A war between the US and NK is not coming, simply because NK is neither a serious threat to the US nor has something that the US elite badly wants. NK threats are really extortion to prop up the dictatorship. Those in command in the US are not confused about that, but the administration wants the public to think that NK is a threat to support the funding of the missile defense shield, which is really for the purpose of moving mass taxpayer money to wealthy Republican supporters' pockets.
     
  10. Spyke Registered Senior Member

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    Yes, O'Hanlon's key phrase in there being "...some reports suggest that more then[sic] 600,000 U.S. troops could ultimately be deployed..." Actually, I think the figure at one time called for as many as 690,000 troops. However, those are worst case scenario numbers that would be at the back end of the Time Phase Force Deployment List (TPFDL) OPLAN 5027, and I don't think most military strategists believe it will ever come anywhere near that. The ROK has a 5 million man reserve froce that can be called up and deployed in a few weeks, well before the US can deploy the numbers in the last phases of TPFDL.
     
  11. Undecided Banned Banned

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    But he made no such assertion about the fact that half of the US combat troops would have to go. Also I think I proved my point this isn't going to be a walk in the park, and SK would have to undergo great pains to prevent the NK invasion of Seoul. What is considered a “worst case scenario”? I mean isn’t there really only one or some odd variation? Eventually someone would need to occupy North Korea…do you honestly think SK can do that?

    I don't think most military strategists believe it will ever come anywhere near that.

    Belief…it’s a dangerous thing. Essentially I think I have proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the US doesn’t have the men to fight a war on the Korea without a draft which would be useless.

    The ROK has a 5 million man reserve froce that can be called up and deployed in a few weeks, well before the US can deploy the numbers in the last phases of TPFDL.

    A few weeks is not enough…NK time frame for war is 2 weeks. I don’t think u are getting it here, this is not going to be a long fought war.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2005
  12. Spyke Registered Senior Member

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    1,006
    I don't know what assertions he made or didn't make. You gave one brief statement without a link.

    Nobody said it would be a walk in the park for the South Koreans. So I don't know what you proved. At any rate, you gave one guy's suggestion that it might take up to 600,000 troops, which is hardly proof of anything. Hell, I can easily counter that 'proof' with a different 'expert' opinion:

    "When Pentagon officials talk about the need to maintain a “two-war” capability, they often refer to Korea. This is absurd since South Korea can crush North Korea without American help."
    http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm


    Uh, no. that wasn't the debate. The debate was whether or not the US would need the draft, and you haven't proven that, merely gave one guy's suggestion that it might a certain number of troops.

    I think I do get it. I'm not sure you do though. It would take the US much longer to deploy troops than it will for the SKs to call up reserves if necessary to do so. It will be combined US/SK firepower and SK troops that will defeat NK. You're right. NK can't last more than 2 weeks maximum. They don't have the fuel, they don't have the parts for their equipment, and they can't count on help from the Chinese or Russians. And SK is a much different animal than the one NK attacked a half century ago.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2005
  13. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    Yet, from the above post I read this:

    ….. North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

    On the other hand, the entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul. The modern South Korean army is backed by over 5,000,000 well-trained reservists who can be called to duty in hours.

    South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year.

    South Koreanmilitary equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean militaryequipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance. If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacityand $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Koreahas no industry and no money. As a result, South Korea is roughly five timesmore powerful than North Korea.
     
  14. Undecided Banned Banned

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    I don't know what assertions he made or didn't make. You gave one brief statement without a link.

    As shocking as this may be…it was from…a book! That’s why I put a page number, I realize it’s a shock but its true. If you want to see the book’s over here:

    http://www.mcgrawhill.ca/tpm/press box/press releases/_published/0071431551.php

    Nobody said it would be a walk in the park for the South Koreans. So I don't know what you proved.

    Although no one said that verbatim it was implied by both you and Michael through the use of rhetoric like the words “vastly” and the outright lies you suggested at American troop levels (assertions you are still not able to prove). I proved (and I think its darn obvious) that the US would need far more troops to defeat a NK invasion then what you assumed to be true, don’t beat a dead horse.

    At any rate, you gave one guy's suggestion that it might take up to 600,000 troops, which is hardly proof of anything.

    Hmmmmmmm....you seemed to have selectively read what he wrote:

    One guy? Sure, Bush…come again?

    Hell, I can easily counter that 'proof' with a different 'expert' opinion

    Let’ s not make this into a charade of intellectualism shall we…g2fuckturds.com isn’t exactly what I would consider “expert” I know for sure I wouldn’t be able to use that value judgement garbage in a essay, why use it here?

    Uh, no. that wasn't the debate.

    Ah yah it was…that’s why you pretty much pounced on me b/c I suggested the US needed a draft because she doesn’t have the men available…re-read the thread before you make these outrageous statements.

    The debate was whether or not the US would need the draft, and you haven't proven that, merely gave one guy's suggestion that it might a certain number of troops.

    I proved the US does need a draft because she does not have the men available to fight the Korean war using the Bush administrations own assertions. A good place to start the draft would be Tenn. Let’s see how patriotic those country singers really are…

    I think I do get it. I'm not sure you do though.

    Well this post you posted was very telling…now I know you don’t get it.

    It will be combined US/SK firepower and SK troops that will defeat NK.

    I disagree SK troops would be able to hold off the NK troops not defeat them, what will defeat NK troops will be father time, remember there are I would surmise rather large amounts of NK spies high up in the SK military, and could easily give NK that tactical advantage, we pretty much know the spies in NK are rare if exist at all, I remember hearing that a SK soldier was giving NK operatives maps of key air bases so artillery could accurately strike (if I find that link I will bring it). 500 Scuds, 10’s of TPI’s, 10’s of No-DongB’s, Guam, and Okinawa are in the direct line of fire of NK. Should NK not reach its objective in two weeks max. four, then the nuclear genie will be unleashed.

    And SK is a much different animal than the one NK attacked a half century ago.

    Stronger…but not as motivated.
     
  15. Undecided Banned Banned

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    4,731
    About spying:

    Like I said...
     
  16. Undecided Banned Banned

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    North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

    Well then tell that to the US general in SK:

    -or-

    South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year.

    *YAWNS* so did the US in Vietnam…point? NK can easily destroy SK’s economy within days, kill ten of millions, and nuke key SK cities with impunity…don’t be so freaking simplistic.

    South Koreanmilitary equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean militaryequipment is over 30 years old

    No doubt… look I even help you prove that:

    It doesn’t phase me much Michael. The Nazi’s had superior tech to the USSR, she lost, the US in Vietnam, she lost, it is how effectively you use that tech, and I suspect SK cannot use it all too well.

    If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacityand $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Koreahas no industry and no money.

    It won’t need any…

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    As a result, South Korea is roughly five timesmore powerful than North Korea.

    Ignorance is bliss mein friend.
     
  17. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

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    "North Korea, with the cover of its Air Forces, can wage a naval war to prevent troop movements that would last until Allied Carrier Fleets would be able to win superiority of the skies."

    LOL! Now that is funny! And what Air Force would this be??? LOL

    NK has two, and only two cards in its hand (granted both are big).
    1) Nuke
    2) The Ability to Shell Seul into Oblivion.

    Wow these are fine and dandy, they are defensive threats. NK does not have the ability to Invade the South. Lets not forget that we feed them. China gives them oil. So they attack. Ok then they starve. The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country?? Hardly.

    Yes, the U.S. has only 37,000 troops. Lets not Forget SK troops. The SK military is far superior.
    The North has a 1,000,000 man army. Wow. Good luck feeding them and transporting them anywhere.

    We stomped the North once before we could do it again.
    Would we?? No.
    Whats the point??
    Are we going to risk the Destruction of Seul and a nuclear Attack on the South?? Not a chance.
    The North will collapse on its own.

    I cant believe you brought up the Norths Naval Capability. What a joke.

    Our concern with the North is Kim Sucs Dong anoying habit of sending nuke tech to other countries. That and his occasional missle launch over Japan.

    "It doesn’t phase me much Michael. The Nazi’s had superior tech to the USSR, she lost, the US in Vietnam, she lost, it is how effectively you use that tech, and I suspect SK cannot use it all too well."

    Well when you have the US, Britain, and the Soviets out producing you 5-1 while getting your factories blown sky high everday its kind of hard to win. Blame poor leadership on that one. I havnt read too much on the Vastly superior NK bombers that will whipe out SK industry.

    Vietnam doest really count. We never invaded the North. It was a political war. Militarily we kicked the sh*t out of them. Stupid stupid stupid defensive war.
    Anyone read Colon Powel's book?? He talks about his first mission in Vietnam. He was flown out to the Middle of Nowhere to some Sout Viet base. He asked why the base was there seeing that there was nothing important around. The answer?? To protect the airport. Why was the airport there? To supply the base.
    That was Vietnam logic.

    I guess you forgot that we already took over the North once before. If it wasnt for China there would be no North. And as far as your "NK has better Numbers", look at the Chinese as a perfect example. They lost over 1,000,000 People in the Korean war to our 36,000. And they DIDNT take over the South.
     
  18. Undecided Banned Banned

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    LOL! Now that is funny! And what Air Force would this be??? LOL

    I suspect the initial stages of the war would be what he is talking about, no question NK”s air force isn’t exactly up to snuff…

    Wow these are fine and dandy, they are defensive threats.

    Nuclear weapons by definition are offensive weaponry; it has no tactical defence because you will kill yourself by detonating the weapon in some form of defence. Also by definition artillery is an offensive tactic and weapon…I thought you were in the military?

    NK does not have the ability to Invade the South

    She does, the question is how successful that invasion will be, without US intervention I would vouch well, at least the Seoul-Incheon area.

    Lets not forget that we feed them. China gives them oil. So they attack. Ok then they starve. The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country?? Hardly.

    Where did this imaginary world come from? If you are going to make bold faced assumptions like that at least back it up. Now let’s “review” your “argument” here:

    “So they attack. Ok then they starve.”: Who is they? The population or the military? NK has massive reserves of food ready for a war, the country’s whole industry and economy is geared to the military, remember a war on the Peninsula is not expected to last long so that assumption of yours is largely incorrect in this context.

    “The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country??”: By the looks of it Kim still has a firm grip on the country, since there is no information from the outside coming into NK except for the privileged few, no concept of democracy, capitalism, etc they don’t know any other alternative. All members of NK society who were considered part of the intelligentsia, were killed and usually along with their families to stop the “contamination” of un-Juche thoughts from the general population. I think the most NK’s think something is wrong but don’t blame the government but the US and the gang, etc. Invading SK would of course be a last grasp for air, so really it wouldn’t really matter to the leadership.

    Yes, the U.S. has only 37,000 troops. Lets not Forget SK troops. The SK military is far superior.

    Where does this value judgement come from? The SK is superior to the NK military but not “far” superior. I suspect you haven’t even read the thread.

    The North has a 1,000,000 man army. Wow. Good luck feeding them and transporting them anywhere.

    700,000 are located just north of Seoul genius…why do ppl like you talk when they KNOW NOTHING ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE UTTERING? Honestly Crazy, is it because you are in the “US military” you now know all?

    We stomped the North once before we could do it again.

    Wasn’t it a stalemate?

    The North will collapse on its own.

    You realize how many times that have been said over the past 20 years? 1991 after the USSR collapsed, nothing happened, 1993 after Kim Il Sung died, nothing happened, 1995 after the deadly floods, nothing happened, a collapsed economy, nothing happened, what makes us think something is going to happen? A country cannot collapse without an intelligentsia to create the basis for revolution, all NK has is a mass of a discontented population that could relatively easily be put down, read Marx and Lenin.

    Well when you have the US, Britain, and the Soviets out producing you 5-1 while getting your factories blown sky high everday its kind of hard to win. Blame poor leadership on that one. I havnt read too much on the Vastly superior NK bombers that will whipe out SK industry.

    Its called artillery, and 500 odd scuds, and up to hundred much more advanced missiles which are I believe nuclear capable (you can thank your ally Pakistan for that, you invaded Iraq fucking idiots), they don’t need bombers, that’s a “bourgeoisie” weapon…lol.

    I guess you forgot that we already took over the North once before. If it wasnt for China there would be no North. And as far as your "NK has better Numbers", look at the Chinese as a perfect example. They lost over 1,000,000 People in the Korean war to our 36,000. And they DIDNT take over the South.

    No they didn’t, and to be fair the US was a very effective fighting force, but back in 1950 the US had millions under arms, was unquestionably the most powerful nation or earth, and wasn’t in Iraq, also NK was not nuclear capable and didn’t have over 2 million under arms…things have CHANGED significantly, NK has won before in US military simulations, and since the US cannot supply the 600,000 men needed to defeat the enemy things will be ugly, because remember defeating NK in Seoul is not enough you have to invade NK itself, and that won’t be pretty.
     
  19. Odin'Izm Procrastinator Registered Senior Member

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    Food dosnt play that much in winning a war unless its a stalemate as we can see from the past... in ww2 many soliders on either side ate horses and so on to survive... some ate their leather boots (I dont beleive it)
     
  20. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

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    "Wasn’t it a stalemate?"

    Before or After the Chinese crossed the border??
    Before the Chinese came accross we had taken over all of Korea.
    After they Chinese came they kicked the crap out of us until we stopped them at the current border.
    Now did we cross the border or did the Chinese invade?? Who knows....

    We were not ready for the Korean war. Just look at the thousands injured or killed by the North Korean winter. The Chinese lost tens of thousands. Nasty war. And sadly, mostly forgotten.

    As far as Nukes being offensive- when was the last time we or anyone else did that?? [I think we all know the answer to that]
    If anything they have taken the imfamous role of MAD. Countries with Nukes have become immune from invasion.
    Anyone know that last time a country with Nuclear Weapons was invaded??
    *tick* *tock* *tick* *tock*
    Its never happened! Who would risk it??
    Do you think we would have invaded Iraq if they had nukes??

    During the Korean war McArthur wanted to open a second front and invade China directly. He also stated a desire to NUKE China!! Needless to say he was fired.


    I highly doubt the U.S. would stand by while China supplied the North. A simple embargo against China would take care of that.

    And more importantly:
    What exactly would the North gain from Invading the South??
     
  21. crazy151drinker Registered Senior Member

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    WWI yes, WWII no.
     
  22. Undecided Banned Banned

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    Before or After the Chinese crossed the border??

    Well before the Chinese came u were on the Yalu, that’s why they invaded because the US was having wet dreams about China at the time.

    We were not ready for the Korean war. Just look at the thousands injured or killed by the North Korean winter. The Chinese lost tens of thousands. Nasty war. And sadly, mostly forgotten.

    Yes a forgotten war because it wasn’t a victory, America had purged itself of that war to avoid the fact that it didn’t defeat “communism”, when it was only beginning to spread.

    As far as Nukes being offensive- when was the last time we or anyone else did that?? [I think we all know the answer to that]

    When was the last time Russia and the US went to war? If Japan had the bomb, it would have been different as well, maybe one of their “balloon bombers” would have nuked a national park…lol.

    If anything they have taken the imfamous role of MAD. Countries with Nukes have become immune from invasion.

    Which explains why Iran wants the bomb, and why NK has it. Remember the US stated that these countries were part of the “axis of evil”, and Iraq too what happened to her?

    Its never happened! Who would risk it??

    DoD has talked about attacking NK, don’t take it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this administration.

    I highly doubt the U.S. would stand by while China supplied the North. A simple embargo against China would take care of that.

    Who would supply Wal-Mart?

    What exactly would the North gain from Invading the South??

    Nothing…but at that stage of desperation what would she lose? That’s why the US has to deal with NK for real to make NK into the next China and NK wants to become one.
     
  23. Stokes Pennwalt Nuke them from orbit. Registered Senior Member

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    By way of introduction I am a 12 year active duty veteran naval officer who has spent 19 months as a NSFS liason in an artillery unit with extensive experience in counter-battery fire. Participated in Joint Readiness Training Center, National Training Center, and a Corps level Warifighter exercise in counter-fire headquarters as a battle captain.

    After that stint I was a naval NSFS liason officer on the 2nd Infantry Division (2ID) staff at Camp Red Cloud, ROK for one year in 2002. 2ID is responsible for counter-fire on the peninsula.

    I can say with certainty that you are off base in most every way and this is why:

    There are two type of artillery systems that can range parts of Seoul, they are 240mm MRLs and 170mm canons. These systems are primarily located in fixed sites for their own protection. Unfortunately for them this means they can be found easily and targeted. While the underground facilities may save them, these systems wouldn't be of much use if for instance the doors leading to the firing points were disabled by artillery and/or bombing. The majority of nKPA arty is smaller in caliber and is therefore incapable of ranging Seoul proper, and in many cases not even the northern suburbs. It is just too far south.

    They can aim all they want at Seoul, not many of them will reach. Next, as to the accuracy, Artillery guys like to talk about five requirements for accurate predicted fire, they are:

    1) Weapon location - Where your gun system is.
    2) Target location - Where the item you want to make go away is.
    3) Weapon and ammunition data - Muzzle velocity for a given powder lot number and charge. Also, number of rounds fired by a given gun. Each time a round goes out of the tube, the characteristics of the tube change and need to be taken into account.
    4) Common survey - All of your guns in a battery are laid on a common azimuth. One lone gun firing with many others missing won't acheive desired effects. Artillery works best when fires are massed.
    5) Accurate met - This is a meteorological survey of the surrounding area to determine air densities and where they are layered.

    We are much better equipped to figure those five things out. North Korea will know #1. #2 depends on the target - we aren't wedded to fixed sites and once we move they will have issues finding us, #3 is where they will have issues. They will have really old data unless they take their guns out from their positions and fire them. #4 is probably a given considering they are in fixed positions and #5 I don't see why they wouldn't have this.

    As to tracking shells, we have the AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radars. The Q-36 focuses on high angle fires (mortars) in the close (brigade) fight. Q-37 radars focus on other artillery systems both cannon and rocket in an effort to make them go away. They are phased-array radar systems that can pick up one or a number of systems firing while extrapolating the point of impact and point of origin of the rounds an then automatically generate a call for fire to friendly guns against the point of origin before the shells from the first salvo have even landed. So while this is a rather popular myth, it is not supported by fact.

    In the next several years you will also begin to see the emergence of a new defensive weapon system for mitigation of indirect fires and that is the Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser. MTHEL is a high powered chemical laser mounted on a mobile platform consisting of a pair of HEMTTs (the big 8x8 trucks) that uses its own infrared telescope and inputs from nearby FireFinder radars to track incoming shells and rockets, and then engage and destroy them in mid-flight with a few million watts of optical energy. This may sound like science fiction to you but I assure you it is real and it is imminent. Once MTHEL arrives in force, not even an initial salvo of arty will ever land south of the DMZ because it will be destroyed mid-flight. As for the threat of TBMs, we have the Patriot. Its capabilities are obscene. One Patriot battalion deployed and operating in weapons-free mode can completely shut down airspace for a radius of approximately 200 nautical miles laterally and an altitude beyond which any aircraft or TBM operates at vertically (that number remains classified).

    There are other flaws with your analysis that I dont have time to address right now, but you really don't seem to have a functional grasp of the peninsula's topography and relevant geographical features. There are two invasion corridors that probe southward from about four kilometers south of the DMZ and they are surrounded by mountainous terrain. Armor probing through there would be a classic turkey shoot for CAS aircraft and Apaches from Red Cloud and Osan AFB, which is close by. The bridges along those roads are also mined, as well as the mountainous walls surrounding them, so the corridors could/would be closed if need be, preventing an armored push southward. In all likelihood the massive rush south often spoken about would be bottlenecked and halted before reaching the Imjin river, at which point it would not be able to cross the bridges due to the fact that 2ID/UNSK retains the ability to destroy them in an emergency. We are well-prepared for this sort of thing because you don't spend 50+ years staring at each other in a cease-fire without making plans in case the other side gets itchy.

    During my time living in Uijongbu I personally worked with all of this. I can try to answer some questions of you like, but I have been quite busy as of late and have little time to spare so you'll have to forgive me if I take too long.
     

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