Spectre of the Cold War: North Korea and the next war.

Twice the United States has made an example of small dictatorships, with shinning success. The first, in 1990, when our troops raced across the Iraqi desert and smashed their Army, destroying their equipment and killing, wounding or capturing nearly 200,000 Iraqi soldiers. Again, in 2003 we raced across the Desert heat and smashed all resistance, which was little due to sever depression in morale. Though now we are bogged down in an insurgency, it is mostly ill-trained as compared to the North Koreans. Currently, after nearly two years of fighting, we have lost only 1,300 Men total (including accidental deaths and suicides and et cetera). A feat to be recorded in the anals of military victories.

But a looming shadow refuses to go away, the shadow of the Cold War. From its murky fog stares with suspicious eyes, an enemy none of us know. They live not only in mind but in every day life as if it were still 1950, their chance to seize all of the Korean peninsula still lays before them.

This is a nation whose very war will be a tragedy, as it will be the result of a conflict that has ended no less than 13 years ago. Also because this war will cause the deaths of a million Americans.

It will be America's "Great War". Trench warfare, chemical, and biological attacks. Fighting in the tunnels which extend for hundreds of miles under North Korea's territory.

But it is not the environ or tunnels that will make this war brutal, but the simple fact:

<B>North Korea has one of the best trained Special Operations Forces in the world.</B>

To add injury to insult, they number as few as 100,000 and as many as 120,000 men. (Potentially more than our entire Infantry capabilities).

This war, needless to say would require a substantial draft.

North Korea's Special Forces are well trained to fight in the environment of their homeland. Further training includes:

<B>1) Sniper training
2) Training with most weapons of the major powers of the world
3) Superb infiltration
4) Small unit tactics acting independent of larger regular forces
5) Martial Arts</B>

These Commandoes are often sent on solo missions, the mission?

<B>To cross the DMZ, infiltrate South Korea returning information of their enemy's condition.</B>

As a token of their success, they are required to return an item from South Korea, such as a street sign.

If they fail? They committ suicide. <B>Not forced suicide, but the suicide of the People's Army, a suicide much like that of a Samurai of Japan, a suicide because of disgrace.</B>

While local naval and air supremacy of North Korea may be short lived, the capability of North Korea is far reaching with their Special Forces.

Mainly in the ability to make any attempts to secure South Korea's sovereignty a living hell. But also in other matters:

<B>1) They are fully capable of threatening local powers to stay out of the conflict and to not permit any "invaders" from using their lands as support for bases, air, naval or land.

They are capable of doing this by their long range missile capabilities, which includes the entire region up to Iwo Jima and the Aleutian Islands. The threat of WMD attacks upon very populated Tokyo and Shanghai would eliminate the major potential aid that could be given to UN or American forces in that region.

2) They are capable of insurgency into China, into Japan and into Russia. This insurgency is a further threat to their willingness to aid any military efforts that may be conducted against North Korea.</B>

This means that when the war with North Korea begins, it will be the task of the US and probably the UN to dispose of North Korea entirely by naval and amphibious power.

The US doctrine is fully out-of-date. Belief in the US ability to mobilize troops fast enough to counter a full-scale North Korean invasion of South Korea fails to take into account the fact that while North Koreans are starving, their military capabilities are high, their morale is more fanatical than most radical muslims.

North Korea, with the cover of its Air Forces, can wage a naval war to prevent troop movements that would last until Allied Carrier Fleets would be able to win superiority of the skies.

This is due to the peculiar doctrine of the North Korean Navy, which is built to fight shore conflicts as clandestinely as possible. The bulk of its Submarine fleet is designed to specifically infiltrate coasts.

North Korea's Artillery capabilities surpass the United States, having the longest range artillery known in the world. (An accurate range of approximately 60 miles).

North Korea is able to attack Seoul with anywhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000 artillery rounds per minute, having placed with the range of the DMZ no less than 12,000 artillery peices.

North Korea is substantially "underground". Tunnels exist through-out the country, capable of feeding an area with 15,000 troops per hour.

The majority of North Korea's special weapons industry and weapons industry is either underground or mobile, making them difficult targets to ensure their destruction. Some 8,000 facilities exist as such.

This war is coming. Why?

Because every aspect of "why nations go to war" is growing between North Korea and the rest of the world. What was a hesitant stand-off, is now falling to massive paranoia on the side of North Korea. While regardless how you perceive Bush in other matters, his administration's actions towards North Korea have severely aggitated the issue (though aggitating North Korea is as easy as aggitating a cat by swinging him around your head by his tail).

What's further, the World, and the United States especially, refuse to acknowledge the military capabilities of North Korea.

North Korea has 700,000 men within 100 miles of the DMZ. The United States has 37,000 men in all of South Korea.

The potential of holding the peninsula in event of invasion is impossible, but refused to be acknowledged by senior officials. The United States therefore is allowing a window for aggrivation between North Korea and South Korea. North Korea is losing its ability to feed itself, it will one day need to use force to prevent internal conflict, this force however will not be directed towards putting down rebellions, but to solving their problems long-term. That is, conquering territory for production of food and fishing.

Perhaps even threatening the world with attack if they do not give them food.

North Korea's internal plights will soon force it to go to war.

This is what the U.S. refuses to admit, though perhaps that is only publically. How can you tell the country that you will have to prepare some day to fight a war that will kill a million of your finest sons, when your countrymen barely even understand how the nation they will be fighting is even a threat?

 

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I wonder what would happen if Japan (I believe the largest contributor) and/or the US, completely stopped sending rice to NK?

I did read that NK has had to decrease their minimum height requirements as most enlisted NK are too puny to make the old mark (a bit of protein deprivation does it every time)

I doubt that NK could bomb Tokyo/Shanghai, I think all of those types of instillations are known. Certainly Japan and the US knew well ahead of time, about the missile NK launched over Japan. They had more than ample time to destroy the entire installation.

I wonder what would happen if China decided to cut off oil for month or three?

Anyway, I voted no war.

 

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Wow, so limited in sight Michael? I wonder what happend to the South in the Civil War.

They had only one Iron-works producing most of their cannon. Where'd they get the materiel to fight a war for 5 years? Oh, that's right, they stole it from the Union.

Why do you suspect that North Korea can not make good of conquered materiel?

And you suspect that we could destroy North Korean missile installations, when no one knows where they are...the missile test site is one thing (and is indeed bare compared to a Western test site), but the actual launch facilities are completely off the radar, so to speak.

I would like to see you post some sources to where you read that North Korea had to lower their height requirements, however I think you are being near-sighted. If you can maintain and take a military on maneuvers, you can keep it fighting. The food aid is already at a sever "minimum" due to the alienation North Korea receives by their policies. (The US revoked all of its aid for a time, I do not know if we've re-established it, though doubtful.)

North Koreans in general are malnurished, but they are not so starving as not to support their war machine.

 

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An alternative point of view. I also voted 'no war'.

http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm

 

Well how about carpet bombing? Artillery is useless in modern warfare, once it is located it is easily destroyed with Air Forces/cruise missiles. After all you can just bomb whole peninsula with nuclear weapons and thats it. NK is not a serious threat for full blown war , but it maybe much harder nut to crack for "anti" terrorist operation. US will be frowned upon if they use nuclear weapons and without them I doubt it will be easy to gain any foothold in NK. Its not desert - its dense jungles, partisan war can last forever there.

 

Posted by FreeMason:

What was a hesitant stand-off, is now falling to massive paranoia on the side of North Korea.

The paranoia of the neocons got us bogged down in Iraq for non-existent links to Al Quaeda and non-existent WMD's.

Will neocon paranoia launch us into another war in Korea? Paranoids in Korea and paranoids in Washington. Not looking good.

 

I have written many threads on NK, and her capabilities...if there is one thing I know about a war with NK the US needs a draft...ASAP.

 

No, we don't need a draft. 51 percent of the American population voted for Bush and the war. There shouldn't be any problems finding enough blood hungry republicans to fill out the army, marines and national guard without a draft-even in a war with Korea.

Although my bets are still on Iran number one and Syria number two. You have to remember that the neocons first priority is Israel.

 

Unless China came to NK aid, I think they’d be totally screwed. They only have enough oil to last, what, 4 weeks? And that comes directly from China. If war brook out whose side is China going to take? NK? I don’t think so.

This is what I read on Janes.com, that the US, SK and Japan knew well ahead of time that NK was testing a missile that was about to fly over Japan. At ANY point they could have stopped the test. YET, funny enough, it took so many Japanese, South Koreans and American “by surprise” and was all over the news when it happened.

To me, that seems like we are being manipulated to think that there is more of a threat than there really is. But who knows, that’s just what I think.

The Seoul Times

North Korean height problem spurs global aid debate

Famine-struck N Koreans 'eating children'

Chinese Media Says North Resorting to Cannibalism

But it seems that they can’t.

I really don’t know, it’s a quite isolated state.

Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if the US starts a draft JUST for Iraq!



In summary, I do not think that NK is much of a position to win a war. They will not receive the sort of aid they had received from China and Russia. Their people are malnourished. Their war-machine is almost broken.

And for Christ sakes, they RELEY on their enemy to eat!

That doesn’t sound like much of a threat to me.

If anything I think SK and China are worries that NK is going to collapse and they’re going to have to deal with all these refuges flooding across the boarders.

The picture you paint of this well honed well feed lethal NK special ops warrior just doesn’t appear to jive with the situation on the ground in modern NK. But, who knows? Maybe? I just don’t think so.

Interesting piece, I didn’t know that Jimmy Carter went to NK to personally broker a peace deal? Interesting.

 

But Michael you forget that although the NK ppl aren't being adequately feed the NK military gets all the food it can, and NK is not “one nation” per se, its two nations, privileged and maltreated, I call it the Pyongyang, Namp’o, Kaesong corridor, these ppl have it the best in the country, those outside this corridor are well…left to their own devices, an extreme version of blue-state/red-state. Secondly how can the US win a war with NK if she doesn’t have the men needed to effectively battle it? The US needs 600,000 men to fight on the peninsula, not SK the US. This is not hubris either, also the US has lost before to NK in a simulated war. Thirdly NK has the bomb…if her government is on the verge she will probably go out with a bang. That’s why its in the US best interests not to attack her, and the Japanese will probably not allow any American aircraft to take off from her soil due to NK threats. Even if NK loses (which right now is 60/40 due to American weakness), the damage done to SK economy will be disastrous, and the Asian markets could collapse especially the Japanese markets due to perceived fear of a NK nuclear attack. The real threat from NK isn’t if she is going to win or not, imo the real threat is how a war with NK will effect millions of Koreans, Japanese, and the world economy. If the US is stupid enough (with this administration you know it is) to start another war with Iran, plus Iraq, and on top of that NK, and if China was really pissed a invasion of Taiwan which is a region that is very hot this year we are in for fun, a perfect storm.

 

Yeah, but I picked the NO WAR option, so I think we agree here?

I hope, for SK sake, that when they do collapse it doesn't go with a bang?

How easy and much time/money does it take to maintain a bomb? I mean how long do these bombs last? Wouldn't they have to have some sort fo decent way to shoot it? Wouldn't SK/US/Japan/China know where these speacial rocks are lunched from?

 

Yeah, but I picked the NO WAR option, so I think we agree here?

No...war is very possible in the Peninsula imo, the US is not going to budge with her neogiations with NK, this administration doesn't seem to get the concept of neogiations, also the US is sticking firm on its denial to have bilaterial party talks (something I simply don't understand), we have to back to the Clinton era where real progress was being made vis-a-vis NK, there was even talk of Clinton going to NK himself! Things on the Peninsula took a nasty turn when Bush rejected the Sunshine policy, and put NK on the "Axis of Evil" list, the US has been the main provocateur in this situation, and with this adminstration now having even more control over the US politically, I really do worry. I mean if those retards have the "brains" to attack Iran, what makes us think they won't NK?

I hope, for SK sake, that when they do collapse it doesn't go with a bang?

SK has to make sure NK doesn't collapse that is the point of interaction btwn the North and the South, and its in China's interest too. Those countries understand that if NK were to collapse it would involve firstly massive refugee flows, secondly loose nukes, and thirdly a starving, underdeveloped economy which would cost upwards of $1 trillion to bring to SK standards...and that's even a understatment. SK wants to avoid the fate of Germany, if the GDR was nominally independent post-1989 and was able to develop its capitalist economy without the $70 billion a year in welfare cheques but real investment then imo Germany wouldn't be in such a bad shape. If NK perceives itself to be on the verge of collapse she might either blackmail other nations, or do the unthinkable. To those who think Kim is crazy...think again he is very intelligent, and he knows that him with the bomb has pretty much guarenteed his existance for a while longer because of the regions fears of a warring NK.

Wouldn't they have to have some sort fo decent way to shoot it?

If there is anything NK does well...its make missiles. NK has proven Russian SLBM tech now, and supposedly these can be launched from ships. Its called the No-Dong B, and we can't forget the Taepo Dong...remember the Iranian Shahab III is essentially a No Dong.

Wouldn't SK/US/Japan/China know where these speacial rocks are lunched from

Well some of them yes...but here's the problem much of NK's missile forces are lauched from TEL's and those are hidden in the mountains and we've only scratched the surface of that maze.

 

I have never understood the need for the U.S. to keep troops prepared for a possible Korean war. South Korea could easily defend itself from any North Korean attack. The only real threat comes from the N.K. artillery which could pound Seoul from within their own borders. The N.K. army would have no hope of passing the border, even if they had the fuel to move into S.K. Would it have a severe economic impact? Of course. Is the North Korean army a threat to the South? No, and the South Koreans know it which is why American troops will be off that pennisula within a decade.

 

North Korea slashes food rations

I really do think that NK is not a threat. They can just barely provide enough food for themselves, nevermind going to war! And with the US no doubt?? Nope I don't see.

 

No, we don't. If war comes on the peninsula it will be because NK attacks SK, in which case the US will have the more than capable ROK military as its ally, providing all the extra manpower it needs.

 

I have never understood the need for the U.S. to keep troops prepared for a possible Korean war. South Korea could easily defend itself from any North Korean attack.

Firstly let's stay away from being a comedian here, SK could not "easily" defend itself from a NK attack, that's hyperbole. South Korea could thwart a NK invasion but she would probably lose Seoul, also we forget that there are many NK spies within the SK military, and thus that is a major tactical disadvantage. Thirdly NK could Scud major SK naval and air bases, if you throw enough of them some are bound to do some damage, also NK can subvert the frontlines with her special forces and attack installations in the south, like the port of Pusan. SK would be able imo to eventually hold off a NK attack, but at great loss, and it would become a war of attrition.

Is the North Korean army a threat to the South? No, and the South Koreans know it which is why American troops will be off that pennisula within a decade.

The South is a third world country without Seoul, NK could hold Seoul hostage (which is what I would do), seal the roads leading out of the city trapping millions inside, and threaten it with 500,000 shells an hour if SK doesn't either give in or come to a comprimise solution, the only way imo to really break that would be with American forces. Also we forget that Japan may not want anything to do with a war on the Peninsula because NK could nuke Tokyo so that could greatly reduce American military power.

 

Yes you do...according to the US military's own estimates the amount of American troops needed to thwart a NK invasion would be in the area of 600,000 Americans. Do you have 600,000 American soldiers ready to go? Last time I checked the US was bogged down in Iraq, the situation is so bad in the US military that you have "stop-loss" and the national guard fighting...if NK were to attack tommorow...there are some options for the US:

>Pull out of Iraq and move into NK (which would be fruitless it would take too much time)
>Send all available US forces (paltry amount at best)
>Create a draft (which imo would even be fruitless because a NK war is entended by the NK government not to last more then a month)
>Nuke NK (imo the only logical option for the US)

This isn't going to be a long drawn out war in which the US can easily land men on the ground, the war will be short, and sweet because the NK's know that if it isn't then they will surely lose. If the NK's can get their major objectives in a month (which I doubt is the entire peninsula) which would probably be major industrial centres of the NW in Seoul, Inchon containing the vast majority of SK's population and economy, imo that is a doable thing for NK. Remember that even according to American simulations NK has won in the past...but now with nuclear weaponry the situation is too serious imo to ever really go that far.

 

A war of attrition. And just where is NK going to get the oil and food to continue this “war of attrition” past 3 days?

How so?

So now the NK army has suddenly crossed the DMZ surrounded Seoul and captured the city?

:bugeye:

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A war of attrition. And just where is NK going to get the oil and food to continue this “war of attrition” past 3 days?

It is known that NK has emergency supplies of food, and war material that could last about 4 months. Come again? But the whole point of another Korean war is to avoid that outcome, to get it over with ASAP.

How so?

20 million ppl 1/2 the population live within the Seoul area, and most of the nations output as a result orginates in Seoul, if NK really wanted to it could set back SK about 30 years. Wo bu shi jiaoshu!

So now the NK army has suddenly crossed the DMZ surrounded Seoul and captured the city?

Possible, firstly I don't understand why you feel it necessary to use emoticons when its obvious the only reason why you are doing that is because u don't understand what I am saying, not that what I am saying is incorrect. Secondly without a major US presence in the region it is very possible if not likely that NK would capture Seoul after “softening” up SK defences, to be far the casualty rate would be horrid, but NK imo can at least get Seoul without a major US force, thirdly we cannot forget there are spies in the south for NK, and much of her moves will be monitored, and fourthly we know NK has a crack team of hackers, after the 1999 attack against the Chinese embassy the a bunch of Chinese hacked in the B-2 bombers main base, who knows what a NK force may be able to do.

In a time of war, and a desperate NK liable to do anything…Nippon has been duly warned at least.

 

I understand that SK has a lot of people in Seoul but I would not say SK is a Third World country? That’s like saying SK, HK, Taiwan and Singapore are the equivalent of Indonesia or Madagascar. Not true.

Now North Korea on the other hand, IS a Third world country.

From the earlier posts, I was under the impression that it is SK who, of the two, has the vastly superior force. That isn’t to say Seoul wouldn’t be bombed – and maybe even flat – but I don’t think NK is going to cross the DMZ fight their way through the SK army and surround the capitol.

Sure NK can iterate their “sea of fire” threats all day long. I seem to remember something about a “Mother of All Battles” that lasted all of about 3 days.

Words one thing,
Reality another.

I do not think that NK has the ability to even ignite a launching pad capable of delivery a nuclear missile, without it being blown to pieces anyhow. Never mind actually getting a nuclear bomb to make it in to the air without crapping out. NK hasn’t demonstrated they even have a nuclear bomb and you seem to say Tokyo’s nuclear-toast. I just think that, that is typical of US paranoia and it seems odd coming from a Canuck.

(as a Michigander I can say that

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As I’ve read before, (Janes) when NK launched their first missile over Japan; China, America, SK and Japan all knew well in advance that this was taking place. These sorts of instillations are not a secret. At any moment they could have stopped the NK from launching that missile. Obviously they wanted NK to launch it. Or didn’t mind.

I do not think those sorts of missiles are mobile?

If you say NK has 3 months supply I will take you at your word, although 3months of oil during war time is a hell of a lot of oil? Regardless, as was posted earlier SK is the more superior of the two Armies. So I would assume it would be the other way around. And a few crack squads are not going to capture a city. I think Iraq is testament to what it takes to capture a city and it’s been years now and it still isn’t captured so three months seems short indeed.