Cally from slashdot.org writes "The Guardian is reporting that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have leapt by 4.5 ppm in the last two years. This raises the ugly possibility that the capacity of a large carbon sink (possibly the oceans) has been exceeded, and the worst-case scenario is that a tipping point has been reached and a runaway warming scenario is in progress. Quote from Dr. Piers Foster of Reading University: 'If this is a rate change, of course it will be very significant. It will be of enormous concern, because it will imply that all our global warming predictions for the next hundred years or so will have to be redone.'" so... maybe these next few years will be the last I see a real winter at my home country in my life p.s. on another note Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
If you're still hanging around over the next 1,000,000 years or so, then global warming should be about the only thing you should be looking forward to...... Atta Boy Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Maybe it's because of the El Nino that occurred in 2002/3 - the one the media conveniently ignores..... Maybe it's because of lots of things. Somewhere way, way, way down the list is the possibility a carbon sink has reached capacity. And way down in cloud cuckoo land lies the idea of a runaway greenhouse - if we exceed the 4,000ppm of the Cretaceous, and it continues rising, maybe then we start worrying.
But what if it isn't ? Is it possible to prove that it is a hoax ? So much for giving an ear to whatever facts are presented.
Well it might be hoax because it is not happening anymore: Global temperatures the last seven years up until Sep 2004: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Or... Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Impressive list of squiggly lines. When I want to impress I use logarithmic scales towards the mean, gets the point across. Then a few pictures of flood, house blowing in the wind fade to old footage of 3rd world refuge hospital. But then I could add some things to put this all in context. Images of dino bones, graphic of woolly mammoth falling into ice lake. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Cut to savage stone age man setting fire to the bush, contrast with fade, green suburban landscape panning down to happy family street. then slow fade to very sort graphic of solar system moving out from the sun, fade to me... "Hi ill be right back after these short messages.".. Google is good.... Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Not only are carbon sinks no longer capable of absorbing all the carbon that is produced, the permafrost in large areas of the arctic and siberia are melting and the process is reversing, releasing all of the carbon they have slowly been storing for thousands of years.
Marsoup's graphs are all of such a small portion of time that they are effectively meaningless. I guarentee you that similar temperature changes have happened on Earth before.... and they were not man made. Blindman's are much more descriptive of the big picture. This one is probably the most helpful: [img=http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/Image5.gif] A few things from this graph: 1) Temperature flucuations are normal, and have happened before without human help 2) We are cooler now than we were around 1500 BC 3) The flucations appear to be self-correcting, but over-correcting for our tastes. In the long-term it's not the +2 we should worry about, but the -8.
A few cents from my side (again) Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! This so called hockeystick of MBH is in serious trouble. Plenty of evidence is mounting that there was a indeed a Medieval Warming Period (about 900-1400AD) and a Little Ice Age (1400-1900AD). Check this paper of Soon and Baliunas. It has been convicted as being just about the worst science paper ever and five editors resigned because they were so disgusted that it was published in their paper. Why? Only because it debunkes that hockeystick. Prof Rich Muller is a world leading physician who has specialised in Earth and planetary sciences. But he believes in Global warming Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! . Although he has his facts wrong about the resignation of the editors, but see how he crunches MBH here. A few quotes: And the most important one: Expand that to: When a conclusion is attractive, we are tempted to lower our standards. Standards of global warming alarmists are now way below scientific minimum level. Today there is an article or two about every monthly in one of Earth science magazins of Elsevier publishers (nr1 in the world) that contributes to the proof that Soon and Baliunas were right. This proofs that Global Temperature can make strong excursions without the help of Carbon dioxide, which seriously affects the widespread misperception that the current warming is caused by excessive greenhouse gasses. But the propaganda lingers on. All the more evidence that global warming ceased to be science and is now politics, ideology and religion.
I don't see the harm in shifting to more renewable sources to be quite honest, the global warming advocates are still pushing for something which would probably be a whole lot better for the environment and the future of comfortable city living. Our reliances on fossil fuels are increasing I would say, not decreasing. That is not a good thing if the limited resources themselves are disappearing at an increasing rate. Even if global warming is not for real, the Russian cabinet has seen enough benifit in it for them to take the plunge.... What's going to happen 20 years down the line is that they will have all the technology available to live sustainably, and the U.S. will be 20 years behind in the process. Not a good economic climate to look forward to I'd say...
Global warming may, or may not, be happening. but if it is, it is certainly not caused by human activity. Every high school student knows that the atmosphere consist 75% nitrogen, 24% oxigen and 1% of other gases including carbon dioxide. so since co2 is only a fraction of that 1%, how much effect can it realy have on the climate. I read in National Geographic Sep.2004, that from 1958 to now the co2 level has climbed from 315 parts pr million (ppm) to 375 ppm ! ! or 60 ppm. now in percentage terms that is less than one ten thousens of one percent. my gosh; how can that tiny tiny bit of an increase possibly have an effect on the cimate. Besides, the temperature has been going both up and down since 1958. A guy by the name of Paul Erlich (yes the same guy who today is trying to scare us all with stories about the catastrotic effect of global warming) wrote articles in 1975 (when we had just had 5 years of gradual cooling) telling us we were heading towards an ice age, and that in 10 more years the growing season in England would be shortned by 2 or 3 weeks, and it would no longer be possible to grow cerial crops there. I kid you not, he really did.
I don't think anybody today can predict or say what is really happening or what will happen, sure the climate has changed in the past from hot to cold from what they can tell, but how do they really know what happened no one was there to prove it so until it starts to happen everyone makes there best guess, look how many have made claims in the past about the climate look how many have been right, I just don't think the correct science technlogy is in place to truely say what is going to happen. As far as C02 and greenhouse gases look what a volcano can produce in one eruption I don not think us burning fossil fuels has caused that big of a change or will for that matter look at some of the ice core studies there was rise and falls in greenhouse gases all through our planets past if they want to blame the rise on cars and factorys and such I wanna see a 10-20,000 year old car or engine for that matter.
So what is the standard fallacy here? Conclusion. There is warming in the arctic. Full stop. Period and "caused by global warming" is pure speculation. I just checked that older ice ages on the Ordovician and Silurian border 440 Million years ago occured while there was about 18 times more CO2 in the atmosphere than nowadays. Another ice age occured on the Devonian – Carboniferous border 350-360 million years ago with 3-4 times more carbon dioxide. Refs: http://geog.hku.hk/undergrad/course/2038/2038cycl.htm http://calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/07_1.shtml http://www.studyworld.com/newsite/ReportEssay/Science/Earth\The_Ice_Age-36240.htm And in the 1940's the Arctic was about as warm as it is now: Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Just proving that the mere presence of a certain gas is enough to act as greenhouse gas and that the amount of that gas is much less relevant.
