China is growing up.

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by sargentlard, Jun 23, 2004.

  1. Undecided Banned Banned

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    Thankfully China’s economy is landing softly as I predicted:

    I think more realistic growth in China for it to make it to the inevitable status of #1.
     
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  3. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    lol ur hillarious...
    http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82353.asp

    http://asia.news.yahoo.com/040801/3/1lvc6.html
    now think of the ramifications ... ( they shifted date from attacking taiwan from 2020 to 2008 or so I figure they will shift it again and probably attack in 2005-6)
    Whats going to happen is the following countries will enact punitive actions and use the taiwan war as a leverage to create better trade deals for their nations. I figure that after its over china will clunk into a huge recession and that would be the window of investment opportunity.
     
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  5. Undecided Banned Banned

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    lol ur hillarious...

    Actually as usual you seem to believe that an opinion piece means anything, that’s hilarious, let me tell you. Stop appealing to authority; I’d rather trust the economist’s predictions.

    now think of the ramifications ... ( they shifted date from attacking taiwan from 2020 to 2008 or so I figure they will shift it again and probably attack in 2005-6)
    Whats going to happen is the following countries will enact punitive actions and use the taiwan war as a leverage to create better trade deals for their nations. I figure that after its over china will clunk into a huge recession and that would be the window of investment opportunity.


    Yah typical, wild nonsensical speculation of something that won’t happen. The same way that magically the three gorges dam will flood all of southern China and kill 400 million people, ignoring the fact that the three gorges dam is in the middle of country, and that killing 400 million is impossible. So yes pretend what you are writing makes any sense, or is even relevant it’s always the funniest to read.
     
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  7. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    when i put up ecconomic pieces up you say they arent worth anything when i put up something contrary to ur beliefs ur blind like a bull who sees red its ok I understand that you have a delusion of grandure complex and only your opinion is the right one. I m ok with that because I know sometimes i m wrong and sometimes I m right on this issue however I simply disagree with you and I do have a good part of the ecconomic comunity behind me to actually support some of my claims. Although you seem to feel that I m a moron simply because my opinion differs from yours.

    All I can say is shove it and I stand behind my speculative predictions that within 2 years or less by november of 2006 or sooner china will get the cringes on its ecconomic screws. It might turn out wrong but I still believe in it.

    And the dam will collapse because they switched maintenance contractors from solid german engeneering firms to chinese firms who have very low experience in that particular field. Most of the flooding has been caused by wild dam building and its only the begining. The dam is in mid of country but it blocks two rivers which flow outward now imagine the dam faultering adn releasing the sea of water behind it, naturally it would go through the river paths.
     
  8. TruthSeeker Fancy Virtual Reality Monkey Valued Senior Member

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    Sounds just the opposite....

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    "Speculations" always trun out to be true, since they are the ones that cause the recessions in the first place....

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  9. Undecided Banned Banned

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    when i put up ecconomic pieces up you say they arent worth anything when i put up something contrary to ur beliefs ur blind like a bull who sees red its ok I understand that you have a delusion of grandure complex and only your opinion is the right one.

    All I said is that opinion pieces are just that an opinion, it’s not a fact you know in university you cannot present a “opinion” piece as actual evidence to show an objective stance. I can find opinion pieces that say that the Earth is flat, but really I want to see the facts in a non-bias way please.

    I do have a good part of the ecconomic comunity behind me to actually support some of my claims.

    Would love to see this imaginary community…

    Although you seem to feel that I m a moron simply because my opinion differs from yours.

    Don’t be so harsh on yourself, it's really quite pathetic.

    All I can say is shove it and I stand behind my speculative predictions that within 2 years or less by november of 2006 or sooner china will get the cringes on its ecconomic screws.

    My I never thought a Russian would get so emotional, its so unlike Russians. Well I see you are aware of your inferiority because if you weren’t you would be able to give a well supported, and realistic argument. I know how you can make lots of money, a comic book writer, TRUST me.

    And the dam will collapse because they switched maintenance contractors from solid german engeneering firms to chinese firms who have very low experience in that particular field.

    Actually in response to that:



    Also here is justification from Japan for her support for the dam:

    Most of the flooding has been caused by wild dam building and its only the begining.

    XIAOLANGDI HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT has been online now for four years no, no reported accidents. It resembles the design of the Three Gorges Dam.

    The dam is in mid of country but it blocks two rivers which flow outward now imagine the dam faultering adn releasing the sea of water behind it, naturally it would go through the river paths.

    The valley’s yes, and I agree with you that a dam collapse is possible but barely so. I don’t think seriously that it would actually happen. I am wiling to talk about a Three Gorges dam collapse with you, but you can’t say it will happen for sure, the problem with you is that you talk in absolutist terms. I hate people who talk in absolutist terms, I am open to other opinions but those that make sense.
     
  10. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    I never present my opinion as fact i presisely said that it is an opinion I never said that what I said is factual... I do however say that it is my *belief* that it will occur and what I believe and u believe are separate things. I make sense if you realize that what I m stating is my opinion and my beliefs about trends I do however tend to try to say that it isn't just my opinion but also an opinion of a fair amount of other people. Granted it might not be a majority by any shot but it is there and no disputing that.

    When I try to bring articles to show that some others share my *opinion* you accuse me of trying to present facts which sometimes I do. Especially in that BBC link where they interview average Chinese and their ecconomic realities. But most of the time i just try to express opinion of the oposite spectrum from yourself although you are always hostile to say that such opinion exists outside my person alone. If you think I m talking in absolutes maybe you are right and you are wrong but because I m expressing an opinion you cannot dispute that it is just that. Sure things could either way but calling me stupid and pathetic doesn't mean my opinions are wrong.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2004
  11. Undecided Banned Banned

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    The problem with you Eluminate is that you take one little thing and blow way out of proportion. You say things that usually have nothing to back them up, and you expect me not to ridicule those assertions? Seriously now think of it, was I unjustified in questioning the assertion that the Three Gorges Dam would collapse and kill half of China’s population in the south of the country and expect to be taken seriously? You may have some valid points, but your problem is that you won’t listen to fact. The fact is that if China’s economy were to collapse tomorrow so would much of the world’s economic growth,that is a fact. China is running the world economy, it is demanding goods and it’s growth has allowed many third world states a renaissance with their export earnings. The US market is still closed too much of those states exports, China demands their commodities. Your opinion is fine, but don’t spew nonsense that’s what I am saying. I suspect you just write to write, so you don’t lose face. We can talk about China’s massive problems which she does have, no doubt but we cannot pretend that these dark scenarios are going to happen no matter what. For instance:
    Do you honestly expect me to believe that China would tell anyone when she is actually going to invade Taiwan; do you expect me to believe that you know that will happen in 2005? Honestly now, all I have to say is look at Taiwan’s trade partners, and the source of her growth. Economics run China’s foreign policy not missiles. That is a historic Chinese trait…you should know that before making completely illogical, unsubstantiated, and imaginative assertions. I’m pretty sure you can do better then that…
     
  12. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    I didnt say half of chinas population i said 400 mil which is about a third. Not far fetched if it actually happens. Taking me seriously or not belittling my opinion is not warranted. Sure you could disagree with me but puting me down is not right.

    I m not talking about facts most of the time... We agree on that right. My opinion is mine and those I quote you can't have facts to dispute it because facts do not discredit opinions of other people. Sure the likelyhood of what I say might* happen is small but its there and I believe in it. I try to show others who believe it or at least question some of the nice and cozy pictures that are painted over china.

    if you disagree with me fine but what You say is "nonsense" may not be to someone.

    The reason I think taiwan will be attacked in 2005-2006 is partly in the 1st article link i gave in msns article. Basicly china needs technological infrustructre which taiwan has and canibolising an existing structure is easier then building one from scratch. What they are expecting is the expedient incorporation of the know how into greater china to create self sufficient tech added value to their products to begin competing with other tech exporting nations as well as staving off increased imports of tech goods by substituting their own. Other variables such as financial infusion of another states finance strengths into its own shaky system to strengthen the banks and help garner flexibility for ultimate reforms.
     
  13. Undecided Banned Banned

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    I didnt say half of chinas population i said 400 mil which is about a third. Not far fetched if it actually happens.

    It’s impossible, see this is what I am talking about. Nothing can kill 400 million people, nothing ever has and nothing ever will. Even if it were a disease with modern technology, and prevention measures the death toll would be lucky if it exceeded 2 million. Where do these 400 million live, how would they all die, in what time frame, etc. If anyone thinks that it is possible for a dam collapse to kill 400 million people please raise your voices.

    Taking me seriously or not belittling my opinion is not warranted.

    So you don’t want me to take you seriously? That’s what you wrote.

    Sure you could disagree with me but puting me down is not right.

    I am merely telling you that your outrageous assumptions are just that, and not even valid opinions. Is my opinion valid if I were to say that the Sun revolved around the Earth irregardless of facts that suggest otherwise? Now you know how I feel.

    I m not talking about facts most of the time... We agree on that right.

    Without question, but to have a valid opinion you have to have them supported by facts.

    I try to show others who believe it or at least question some of the nice and cozy pictures that are painted over china.

    No one even insinuated as such.

    if you disagree with me fine but what You say is "nonsense" may not be to someone.

    Well one person could agree with you but that’s irrelevant we shant appeal to popularity.
     
  14. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    i m supported by facts that china has a few perils coming from behind ...
    valid opinion? there is just opinion making it valid is creating a justification of weather you believe it or not therefor its biased to say that. All opinion are valid even if... wrong *not saying that I m wrong* just saying all opinions can coexist.

    Why do you think that only one person would agree surely there is always a few people who believe in the worse to come for china. I showed you lots of things that support my opinion...
     
  15. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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  16. Undecided Banned Banned

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    i m supported by facts that china has a few perils coming from behind ...

    Surely every country has perils as well, China is not unique. I’d vouch that China is in much better shape then Russia for instance, or Japan even.

    valid opinion? there is just opinion making it valid is creating a justification of weather you believe it or not therefor its biased to say that. All opinion are valid even if... wrong *not saying that I m wrong* just saying all opinions can coexist.

    What’s the point of listening to illogical and pointless opinions? So you can feel important? No that’s not the way it works. Either your opinions make sense or not, it’s that simple.

    Why do you think that only one person would agree surely there is always a few people who believe in the worse to come for china.

    Ok two…

    I showed you lots of things that support my opinion...

    You have! My…

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3937403.stm
    ( my 400 million in link above lol)


    You only proved what I said about you:

    All that links says is: Along the river's banks live a third of China's enormous population, more than 400 million people.. That does not prove in any way that 400 million are going to die, also your accusation was not about the Yellow River it was the Three Gorges Dam killing 400 million people, it is obviously to me you don’t even know where the dam is. So you haven’t proved shit…

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82353.asp
    ( some of the things that are coming as well )


    Ok that’s the same opinion piece as before, it’s not changing anything for you. Like I said before get a real source of information.
     
  17. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    feels bad to be wrong ah ...
    * gloating *
    (if u remember i said because they built dams everywhere they will have shortage of food harvests and it will cause famine...)

    Ur also leaving out that this is the breadbasket and its food output is set to diminish by 20-40% in near future all the people alongst its banks would be effected granted not all would die. They said 10-20 mill i think. But you just wait the three gorges dam will burst you just see cause this specificly states that reckles dam building is at fault. So the same will replicate there just will take slightly bit longer.

    Also I believe they said a dustbowl like in 1930s in America which made farmers go to Calif and chinese got no cali so they would starve and flood the cities...
     
  18. Undecided Banned Banned

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    feels bad to be wrong ah ...
    * gloating *
    (if u remember i said because they built dams everywhere they will have shortage of food harvests and it will cause famine...)


    Long before that assertion you stated that the three gorges dam would kill that many people, and magically flood all of southern China. Trust me there is no justification behind your gloating…

    Ur also leaving out that this is the breadbasket and its food output is set to diminish by 20-40% in near future all the people alongst its banks would be effected granted not all would die.

    So you now realize that 400 million dying is…ridiculous?

    They said 10-20 mill i think.

    I think you can’t read:

    Unless there is something I missed here, there not even a mention of death. What you ignored to your own peril is the real problem outlined in the article:
    That’s the relevant part, but that escapes you because you like the Hollywood type scenarios.
    But you just wait the three gorges dam will burst you just see cause this specificly states that reckles dam building is at fault. So the same will replicate there just will take slightly bit longer.
    That statement made no sense, rephrase.
    Also I believe they said a dustbowl like in 1930s in America which made farmers go to Calif and chinese got no cali so they would starve and flood the cities...
    You forget that the Chinese can still import food, that will hurt the current account but it would be necessary. Since China’s population isn’t growing, and is aging the amount of people who will need to be fed will decrease steadily after 2050. Luckily for China that’s when the serious agricultural may really kick in:
    It is true China doesn’t have a California and that is a problem no doubt. These are the problems that you missed because you are an overactive imagination:
    - China’s massive economic expansion.
    - China’s horrid environmental policy
    - Global Warming
    - China’s rapidly growing urban centres.
    Those are the real problems, not some stupid dam.
     
  19. Eluminate Registered Senior Member

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    lol i bet your mad....

    Dams... Financial infrustructure thats painted over but has no footing... (want me to give you a link they just infused another bank with billions because it was about to faulter)... Commodity prices soaring now they import about 7% of their food consumption which will move up rapidly because of the newly rich and will deteriorate the diet of the not so rich who cant afford prices that move 50% on general food staples... Did you miss my link about regular chinese and food prices they giving their side of the story how the cheapest rice went up in price by 50%+ percent.

    Admit it you are wrong and I am 1000% Right.
     
  20. Undecided Banned Banned

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    lol i bet your mad....

    I know your illiterate.

    Dams... Financial infrustructure thats painted over but has no footing...

    What are you saying? You aren’t making any sense. Does anyone understand this?

    Commodity prices soaring now they import about 7% of their food consumption which will move up rapidly because of the newly rich and will deteriorate the diet of the not so rich who cant afford prices that move 50% on general food staples...

    Commodity prices for food should decrease significantly once the WTO completes the deregulation of agriculture internationally. Production should increase, and China will prove to be a further force for international economic growth, especially in the third world. Barely understanding what you wrote, I would have to say that China will have to depress prices for food in order for the population to be fed adequately ,that will further put pressure on the Chinese budget, but it is necessary.

    Admit it you are wrong and I am 1000% Right.

    Sadly no one understands what you are uttering about, so if it gives a boost to your needy ego sure your right whatever you say.

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  21. Stokes Pennwalt Nuke them from orbit. Registered Senior Member

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  22. Undecided Banned Banned

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    I'd like to read the rest please...
     
  23. Pangloss More 'pop' than a Google IPO! Registered Senior Member

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    Me too, if you don't mind posting it.
     

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