Alien civilisations

I watched at discovery and i once again i heard the SETI institutes Drake equation.
A formula for calculating the number of alien civilisations (or if it was intelligent extraterestrial life. Can't really remember).

But here is an educated guess for you.
It is 50% chance that alien civilisations exist. Either it does or it does not.


Oh, is that the Cesspool i sense

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No I don't think that could be right, because if life evolved on earth, then you take the possibillity of that and then you figure how many planets could suport life. I think the percent is a lot less than 50.

 

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Thats the most basic of math, everythings 50-50 until you start to factor other things in, 1st thing is planets in our solar system and how many support life, thats 11.1%recurring(1 in 9), then theres the fact we dont know for certain the only form of life is carbon based and many other things.

 

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And what if there was that supposed 10th planet? 10%, criminy!

In order to get an accurate percentage you'd have to map every single solar system in the universe. I think I'm happy with assuming that there is life out there to be honest.

 

strong reactions. Almost sounds as if you thought i was being serious.

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This is all theoretical, but.......
What if there was an intellegent life form discovered on our own planet? Not human, not wild animal. Would that be considered alien?

 

you mean an alien race on our planet or a previously not discovered animal or something?
Or are you talking about AI?

 

I heard once that given all the possible planets that could support life that there was about a 3 percent chance of life ever developing on those planets.

 

"I heard once that given all the possible planets that could support life that there was about a 3 percent chance of life ever developing on those planets."

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"1st thing is planets in our solar system and how many support life"

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Yes, thats all all well and good but whos to say these so to speak aliens dont have to have the same life supporting needs we have. Maybe they all brethe fires and poop out of there ears!?!?

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I'm talking about an undiscovered animal species with intelligence that is equivelent to ours.

 

Like the beings that apparently inhabit Atlantis or the Hollow Earth?

And Nick has a point. In our arrogance we'd only look for planets that support similar forms of life to us. At our present state we cannot comprehend life other than carbon or electronic based.

 

If the question is whether or not there is even a single intelligent civilization within the universe beside our own I would have to say it's 99.9999999% possible.
However Our egos might have a good chance of being the biggest to naivley think we are the only ones.
Life on earth was not an accident.
There definitley may have been a taste of chance involved, but anywhere in the universe that has even a remote chance of producing life......it will.
This is as much a law of the universe as gravity.
The universe is alive.........ALIVE!!!!!!!
Muwhahahahaha!!!

 

50% ! either aliens exist, or they do not exist

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A universal theory.

 

100%. I am one!

 

Oh, so you're Mexican?

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- N

 

No. Cuban.

 

lol. I'm from Cuba. But if the universe is infinitely large, then there is most likely going to be another civilisation out there. And if there was another sentient race or even being, it wouldn't be alien, because it was an original inhabitant of here. But always remember: there is never a 100% chance of anything. :m:

 

yes but I am 100% certain that aliens exist, they are just illegal.

 

There's a good book called Probability 1, by Amir Aczel that does a good job of showing the probability is %99.9999... based on conservative estimates of the Drake equation.

 

what is the drake equation? :m: