I could very easily reply, not a issue. Just you mean... Shitake to me. Might as not post to me pedo.
I see pedo you are replying, why do you insist on being a irrelevant troll? I don't even know why people give you the light of day? Dah well...
Necessity is the Mother. Yes, when it's feasible, to extract oil from new regions takes a very long time. It isn't just pump and send, it takes political agreements, pipelines, secure naval passages, and billions of investment. The US would be hard pressed to replace Saudi oil, maybe it possible. In ten years, now no way. The American economy would suffer for years from the oil shortage.
So I will assume that you can't answer my questions about Russia? I for one am excited about the expansion of trade with Russia, and also the former Soviets in central Asia. Kazhakstan is a gold mine of natural resources just begging for a buyer. Many people in the U.S. like to claim that Bush is a total moron, but one of the things they like to overlook is the way that Bush quietly went on a tour of Eastern Europe and Central Asia not too long after being elected and make some decent allies. The Krauts and the Frogs are going to regret sealing themselves out of these deals in the future.. With regards to the original purpose of this thread, Hype, I think you and I agree on a lot of points, we just come at it from different directions. You hold a much more pessimistic view of U.S./Saudi future relations than I do. I think they know it's time to get with the program and ratchet down the Wahhabist influence if they intend to hold onto their Western prizes.
Different directions indeed (and yes we do agree on many things) but not here: "it's time to get with the program and ratchet down the Wahhabist influence" This is similar to the "git the terrorists" war cry, even if you mean it in defense of a less-belligerent but now unworkable path to stability through influencing the Saudi elite. The US is not going to win in solidarity with the Saudi elite, just because we both abhor al-Qaeda. Fundamentalist, moderate and progressives Arabians on the outside of the elite all want to throw off the the yoke of their now deeply corrupted and repressive ruling clan. Opposition is not rising because of Wahabbism- fundamentalism is only a common, convenient vehicle in both Arab and American politics when the gloves come off, a false shortcut to moral legitimacy. The fundamentalist reactionaries are just a symptom of the underlying political, (not religious) problem, and focusing on them not only misses the entire issue, but fuels fundamentalism against us, diverting a fight for democracy into a culture clash evocative of Crusades that belong in history's darkest crypt. The US has a very big problem with the Sa'ud dynasty, and we've been in bed with them nearly from their start. This makes it hard for us to think and arbitrate. Opposition is rising in Arabia from similar circumstances and sentiments that sparked the creation of the USA, but we're on the wrong side of Liberty this time around. The American public is in protracted denial of the fact that the United States has not acted as a respectable player in Arabia, nor in the region, worthy of our vaunted ideals. Repression and corruption has been the norm consistently rewarded by American Dollars. As a result, we are not trusted by the Arab public: If mideast politics were baseball, the US would be Pete Rose. We can't put the screws to Wahabbism, especially in concert with the Saudi elite, without further inflaming a growing revolutionary sentiment. Until we come clean, our "help" is extremely unwelcome and self-defeating. Any honest observer can see the signs that Arabia is seething under the collaborative grip of the Saudis and Americans. We won't profit by squeezing tighter. This is the core of the fight with Al-Qaeda. This is why the WTC and Pentagon were attacked. This is why we are killing. There is no rule in politics and history, especially in the conduct of foreign relations of a great nation, against realization and turning. Great nations persist because of their ability to change. America once turned from deeply institutionalized policies of slavery and expansionism. Acting with wisdom would earn us innumerable friends, and defeat our real enemies- the real enemies of freedom. Our choices only become more difficult the longer we delay in facing realities that pride and momentum obscure. We've been backing the bad guys, and while the realization is old news in the Arab world, it's unfortunately still just an inkling to the American public- So far.
Posted by Hype: Wisdom in this situation is subjective. We all know that you can't negotiate with terrorists. But you can act , and that's exactly what we're doing. You say that America is in protracted denial about our corrupt dealings with the Saudis. I say America has no clue what our history is with the Saudis. If you put the word ARAMCO on the TV screen during the next episode of Will and Grace and asked the viewers to call in and explain what it means, how many calls would you get? I wouldn't worry about having too many operators on call that night. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! My point is that we are finally acting on the threat from Al-Qaeda, and any other international terrorist organizations that are a threat to the West. We may have gone off course in Iraq; that remains to be seen, but we aren't lobbing cruise missiles into Afghanistan in a feeble hope that the enemies of freedom will melt back into the caves and never bother us again. What I meant with regards to Saudi Wahhabism is that the Saud family has a 200+ year historical connection with this sect of Islam, and they aren't even legitimate practioners of the preachings of Wahhab, so it's high time they realize their own hypocrisy and look to liberalize the practices within their borders. The youth don't bother to subscribe. They have cell phones and drive Range Rovers. What is Wahhabist about that? Ok, I'm off track again. That's for another thread in the religion forum I guess.
Off track indeed: Our choice is absolutely not between supporting the Saudi monarchy and supporting terrorists. The truth is not mystifying in its complexity- it's just being suppressed. "My point is that we are finally acting on the threat from Al-Qaeda" Only with actions that do not embarass the Saudi elite. Al-Qaeda is all about Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda is also only one unrepresentative and murderous incarnation of a growing, wider, and popular movement to take down a Sa'ud dynasty that is as incapable of reform as any other despotic state. Al-Qaeda is only one symptom of a larger disease. The "wisdom" I am alluding to is not subjective, nor is it incomprehensible to Will & Grace viewers. They've just never had a chance to see what's going on. Deeply totalitarian systems do not reform. A Saudi Gorbachev will not morph nepotocracy into a nice, stable democracy. America's policy inertia, largely buttressed by special interests, is not righteous steadfastness. It's obstinance in the face of progress. As the US continues to align ourselves with bad company, especially in combination with the context of military interventions, the ruthless desperation we have witnessed from Al-Qaeda will metastasize with names we don't know yet. As a result, our TV viewing will be interrupted with more deaths and downturns. We are sorry to interrupt our regularly scheduled programming now, for emergency re-evaluation of the motives and regimes we want to be identified with and defined by. We must understand that while ignoring our bad reputation, it is unreasonable to expect the mideast to become moderate at American gunpoint. Exactly the reverse will instead occur.
The Saudi Mafia is now assuring Americans that their oil is secure. Apparently some Arabians do not agree, and will continue to prove the Saudis wrong. Tick, tock, goes the SaudiBomb, because there's more than one way to fight Dirty.
By the looks of it the Kingdom is on the verge of major destabilization. The Saudi economy is basically run by the West, and her interests. The Saudi military is totally dependant on the US for its existence, and the Saudi’s have co-opted to the point where they are completely linked to the Globalized (western) world model. But let’s not fool ourselves either we need them as well. If there any force in the region that can make or break US efforts it is S.A. The US has to prop up S.A as much as possible because they cannot deal with the alternative, an Islamic fundamentalist state. S.A has 261 billion barrels of oil, that’s what anyone really cares about. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the US military had a military operation to take the Dhahran oil fields if S.A turns into an Islamic state. I suspect that the Saudi family will be overthrown it is only a matter of time until the situation spirals out control. Absolutist monarchies don’t seem to be very successful ones.
"I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the US military had a military operation to take the Dhahran oil fields if S.A turns into an Islamic state." I would, at least in the sense of a workable operation. We are already spread much too thin too accomplish such an occupation and to maintain security over pipelines, docks, tankers, and refineries. Understand, just one division of ground troops remains in reserve back in the Homeland now, and our most pumped and combat-ready troops have now been bogged down in an occupation role for longer than they signed on for. Throughout the ranks, nobody is going to be excited about doubling or tripling the scale of the Iraq experience. This is why preparations are underway again for US military conscription. The Saudi Cosa Nostra could fold tomorrow. An American move into Arabia would be nearly apocalyptic in the rage it would set off across the Muslim world, and it would be extremely unlikely that Washington could do anything to secure The Precious. The oil barons pulling the biggest strings in Washington have bungled very badly. They have known that the Saudi family is teetering for some time, and so bet the farm on one throw: Happy, liberated Iraq was going to be their ace in the hole. The dice flew, rolled to a stop, and the crowd said "awwwwww." Still in shock, we're left speechlessly gaping at the long fall before us. Some are quietly moving for the exits. -Steely Dan
More doom and gloom. Yes everything COULD go wrong tommorow. But it wont. You think the Saudi Government is going to give up? You Honestly think the US is going to stand by and let some Al-Queda nuts take over the country? HAH! In your dreams! You need to give the Saudis a bit more credit.......
"You think the Saudi Government is going to give up?" No, I said that they are going to be overthrown. "You Honestly think the US is going to stand by and let some Al-Queda nuts take over the country?" For the most part, yes: It is already slipping through our fingers, and a tighter American grip will now only squish the whole mess everywhere. While I know better than to paint every movement against the Sa'uds, or American influence as "Al-Queda", that's the general idea. "You need to give the Saudis a bit more credit" You should give Arabians the same.
Generally speaking, Saudi Arabia is an extreme example of the problems facing the Arab world. In the broadest sense, the Arabian states problems arise IMO from the fact that they are not creative/flexible enough to handle the modern world. It seems to me that the Saudis were reasonably content with their government up until recently. In the 70s & 80s, Saudis had a pretty good standard of living, but recently it has started to drop, I believe, mainly because they are trapped in a Malthusian environment. The number of Saudis grows exponentially while oil revenue generally grows linearly. This does not bode well for the future. Also, eventually oil will be superceded by another energy source. At this time, the Saudis are facing a crash. It's not like they will be able to switch to making microchips when the wells dry up. The combination of the prospects of a long-term decline and an inability to creatively respond to problems is an explosive situation. Further, Saudi society is particularily vulnerable to disruption, as their power stems from the petroleum industry, which due to the Arabian dislike of manual labor, is run to a large extent, by foreigners. And all this completely ignores the religious angle ...
while the western world has grown from being nationalistic in the post WW2 era, and now with globalization in the past decade or so, people are much more tolerant and integrated, in the mean time, nothing much has changed in the arab world they're still the same nationalists and as intollerant as europeans were in the 1940's well, a little worse as far as "overthrowing" the Saudi gov't, - nothing of that sort is going to happen you are forgetting who these snakes are - they are brutal opressors if they feel really threatened, they won't hesitate to involve more and more of their national-guard- type militias as well as the Saudi "mukhabarat" (secret internal security service) they'll get louder with their "al-Q is a satanic cult" rhetoric and worse comes to worse, they'll ask for US army help
this Saudi intifada may actually be good it will serve as a wake up call to the Saudis and others that they need to reform not because America tells them to, but because their backwardness is proving to be a self-destructive phoenomenon
I would, at least in the sense of a workable operation. We are already spread much too thin too accomplish such an occupation and to maintain security over pipelines, docks, tankers, and refineries. This has stopped the US before? I don’t think that those concerns are exactly paramount in any administration, never mind this current one. Luckily for the Americans the oil fields are sparsely populated, and are already well protected. I personally don’t think the US would hesitate to kick people out to secure the region. Throughout the ranks, nobody is going to be excited about doubling or tripling the scale of the Iraq experience. This is why preparations are underway again for US military conscription. Well it is true that the draft looks more and more like an inevitability (and yes I know the military doesn’t want them, but they have no choice). But the invasion and occupation of the oil fields imo would not involve nearly as much as the Iraqi adventure. An American move into Arabia would be nearly apocalyptic in the rage it would set off across the Muslim world, and it would be extremely unlikely that Washington could do anything to secure The Precious. Of course if an American kills one person on Saudi soil that would be the spark that sets the oil field of the Middle East on fire. Should the house of Saud fall, it will be very interesting how the US deals with it, will they deny the new govt totally and invade risking general war, or will they reluctantly accept the govt? Only time will tell. P.S: Al Arabiya TV: Al Qaeda militants behead U.S. hostage Paul Johnson. CNN working to confirm.
