Fun World Events Predictions

As the saying goes, immitation is the highest form of flattery...

 

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Recant it? Why? The modern carrier, as I said above, has no one sole purpose, but is nevertheless perfectly suited for providing air power for operations like the Gulf wars.

I think we've seen the 'real' purposes of the CVs in the multiple ways they've been used to date.

Why not? No less than 17 CVs were used to cover US operations during the Korean War, from providing cover for the fall back into Puson, to the landings at Inchon. CVs were again used to provide air cover for the army and marines for inland operations in Vietnam. While it was expected that the CV would be used in sea operations against the Soviets, obviously the US was getting full use of their CVs in other vital ways.

The CV was built to do anything the navy might need it to do. Korea and Vietnam showed planners that the CV could play a vital role in ground wars. Many people felt that with the development of missile technology in the late '40s there would be no future role for CVs, but the operations in Korea, and then later in Vietnam, showed that the CV was still a viable platform for providing air cover for ground operations.

Yes the CVs were built to confront the Soviet threat, among other things, see Korea and Vietnam above. In the '70s, when the Nimitz class were ordered, Navy brass started pressing for a 15 CV navy as opposed to the 12 CVs that was current policy, in order for the navy to be better suited to multi-task. There might be more Vietnams rather than the Soviets.

I did read the author, and no, the Chinese didn't throw off the Americans, except, as I said before, by staying up in coastal waters. Teh Chinese have nothing than can fool even the most rudimentary of ASW capabilities. The few missile boats, the 9-02s and 9-04s, rarely even put to sea, and are noisy as hell, and the attack subs, the 9-01s, are even noisier, not to mention all three types' nuclear reactors are rather unreliable. And the 9-02s haven't even test-fired a missile since '91. They're supposed to build some new 9-03s, based on the Russian second generation Victor III, which is somewhat more quiet, but I'm not even sure they've started construction on them. They were supposed to start construction in '00, but there were delays originally.

If I told you Stokes would then have to kill you.

It's sort of like if the New York Yankees were playing a Little League team. You tell yourself that sure, anything is possible, and then you burst out laughing.

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And just how do you propose that China is going to get an invasion force over to Taiwan without coming out into the strait? They've got to bring a transport fleet out, which means they've got to bring a surface fleet out to cover it, which means they have to control the skies to protect both. The only equatable scenarios are the German plans to invade Britain across the Channel, and then D-Day. Sea Lion never came off because, 1) the Germans didn't have the necessary transports, as the Chinese do not, 2) the Germans didn't have the surface fleet capable of taking on the Royal Navy, so it couldn't protect the transports that it didn't have anyway, and 3) the Luftwaffe never gained control of the skies, which meant it could protect neither the surface fleet or the transports that weren't available anyway.

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By contrast, on D-Day, the Allies had the transports, they had uncontested control of the sea, and most importantly, they dominated the skies.

Yes, I'm well aware that China is nuclear. So is the US. And the Chinese don't want it to escalate to that anymore than the Americans, and I project will not be willing to risk it.

Um, read again. He pasted one paragraph from soemone he called a US military analyst and then spent the rest of the post giving his own opinion. And I have to say I wasn't impressed.

No, it is relevant, because those war game losses came about when the scenarios sent the CV either into the strait or too close to mainland China, and there was also only one CV involved. It is likely that if an invasion is imminent at leat two CVs will be involved. More importantly, in the scenarios where the CV was lost, it was assumed everything the Chinese had actually worked to its full potential, something that in real life is not likely to happen.

Probably not. The F-14 was orignally scheduled to be phased out between 2010-2015, but that was when it was a single-task jet. As the navy has given it multiple-roles, and upgraded it, who knows how long a life the program has left.

The refueling would be done east of Taiwan, as I already said.

1) They have to get in close for a dogfight. It remains to be seen if they can close with any Western fighters. 2) To re-quote your Mao quote, it's not the machine, it's the men. How much similated practice those Chinese pilots have is critical.

If you've done much reading on the SU-27, you know the major rap against it is that its avionics are way inferior to its Western counterparts. It is very vulnerable BVR. It's best hope is to be able to survive and get in close.

And yet you are saying Stokes and I are displaying typical American arrogance.

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remember where you heard this when this finally does happen. No Chinese fighters will go east of Taiwan.

And if they can't invade, it's irrelevant in the end.

 

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I Predict

1. We(everybody) learn to live together peacefully(2010)
2. Religion is thrown out the window (2015)
3. Major break througts in production(alot more for less resources) (2016
4. the last 3rd world nations is pull up from the gutter (2021)
5. Major breakthougts in power production. (2024)
6. Huge space station, and moonbase is completed (2030)
7. Tons of robots are sent out to explore the solar system (2031)

Other Prediction:
1. Yellow stone explodes, making the US go byebye (2009)
2. Caos reigns from 2009-2015
3. Remaning European and Asian countries manages to regain control (2015)
4. Unaware and unprepared Central Europe is hit by a huge roid(2017)
5. by 2025 only few small groups of humans remain
6. 2031 the last humans die out, no food, shelter, air has become poison.

 

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Predict :

Kunax is Paranoid [2004,dec]

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bye!

 

heh my predictins are as good as everybody elses, atleast i left out aliens, secret goverment and my battleship is bigger then yours crap

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Kunax goes scitzo [2004, april]
Aah yea, it will be nice if some of the other selfs can do some of the work.
Imaging if you get mugged by some wanabe robber, we would always be more then 1, we just hope the other selfs are not chicking and run out on us.

 

Heh,

yeh the Alien Invasion Crap...

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bye!

 

Circumstancials do you two well I can see. I will not reply to each of your points, because I merely don't have the time. But one thing I do see is a dictohomy, one is Sypke and the other is Stokes. One is relevant and the other is not, Stokes if you are going to present arguments. Don't present Ad homs, they do you no favours. You are thustly irrelevant, adieu.

Spyke

Recant it? Why?

Maybe b/c it's contradictory?

The modern carrier, as I said above, has no one sole purpose

No you did, you said it had a purpose that was to fight wars like GW. Don't fight what you know you can't win Spyke.

I think we've seen the 'real' purposes of the CVs in the multiple ways they've been used to date.

Ok let's settle this ridiculous waste of time on the purpose of the CVBG, it is for power projection.

I did read the author, and no, the Chinese didn't throw off the Americans, except, as I said before, by staying up in coastal waters.

Exactly my god man, can't you get the clue? The Chinese are not going to venture into the strait with an American force in that very strait. The Chinese can postpone their invasion of Taiwan for quite a while. Your premise is that the Chinese are going to invade first and then do the business of confrontation...oh what a poor web we weave.

The few missile boats, the 9-02s and 9-04s, rarely even put to sea, and are noisy as hell, and the attack subs, the 9-01s, are even noisier, not to mention all three types' nuclear reactors are rather unreliable.

You obviously are very selective on what I write. If you would have read I did say that subs would be sparingly used, if at all against the Americans. You don't think that the Chinese know that their Han class ships are crappy as hell? Again you are falling into the arrogant trap of the "world is America" policy. The Chinese are not going to tailor to your war. What you are trying to do is re-direct the convo into a position of American tactics, while ignoring the tactics of the Chinese.

If I told you Stokes would then have to kill you.

Stokes ...

It's sort of like if the New York Yankees were playing a Little League team. You tell yourself that sure, anything is possible, and then you burst out laughing.

That was awfully arrogant and ignorant of you to say, and you know it. The Chinese are not some Afghanistan, or Iraq. You are not ignorant of history and history shows that if a state is smaller but uses the tactics of war correctly she will win: Salamis, Spanish Armada, and Midway. So Spyke avoid being a Stokes and remain with us in the world of reasonable doubt.

And just how do you propose that China is going to get an invasion force over to Taiwan without coming out into the strait?

When China does that, it will have the US out of the war, or Taiwan would have capitulated, or the Americans would be to far out to severely damage Chinese actions. The Chinese recognize the weakness of this part of the war, and are not going to give you the opportunity to get rid of them.

1) the Germans didn't have the necessary transports, as the Chinese do not,

For now, this is largely true.

2) the Germans didn't have the surface fleet capable of taking on the Royal Navy, so it couldn't protect the transports that it didn't have anyway,

Back then there was no such thing as a SSM Spyke, so illogical comparison.

3) the Luftwaffe never gained control of the skies, which meant it could protect neither the surface fleet or the transports that weren't available anyway.

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China could very well gain control of the skies, so again this historical comparison is based on?

By contrast, on D-Day, the Allies had the transports, they had uncontested control of the sea, and most importantly, they dominated the skies.

The Allies would not have pulled off D-Day if it wasn't for the failed Dieppe landings, so let's not claim all glory shall we? Secondly the Soviets were eating up 80% of Nazi forces, in this case 80% of Chinese forces facing the strait. With about what? 700 IRBM's going to blast the Taiwanese into their bunkers, and with a nuclear threat always present. The comparison btwn D-Day and Taiwan is weak at the very best.

Yes, I'm well aware that China is nuclear. So is the US. And the Chinese don't want it to escalate to that anymore than the Americans, and I project will not be willing to risk it.

Neither do I, but one cannot play the game too much.

No, it is relevant, because those war game losses came about when the scenarios sent the CV either into the strait or too close to mainland China, and there was also only one CV involved.

Wait, how do you know this? How do I know you aren't just making this up. The onus is on you then to show this information.

It is likely that if an invasion is imminent at least two CVs will be involved. More importantly, in the scenarios where the CV was lost, it was assumed everything the Chinese had actually worked to its full potential, something that in real life is not likely to happen.

Again....evidence por favor.

Probably not.

This is where I know you loose much credibility:

The F-14 was orignally scheduled to be phased out between 2010-2015, but that was when it was a single-task jet. As the navy has given it multiple-roles, and upgraded it, who knows how long a life the program has left.

http://home.kabelfoon.nl/~esmith/F14.htm

Oh, that sucks arse....

The refueling would be done east of Taiwan, as I already said.

How effective is that really going to be to attack Chinese assets that are hugging the Chinese coast? Not very, not very at all. The US will be scared to attack the mainland until she gets the elusive air superiority from the Chinese. The US has never faced this type of threat before, with these tactics. So do spare me illogical comparisons to Iraq.

1) They have to get in close for a dogfight. It remains to be seen if they can close with any Western fighters.

Or Visa Versa, last time I checked the AA-11 is far superior to anything the US has in her arsenal. Also the Chinese have variants of the AIM-7 Aspide. Rumor has it that they could be receiving the ultra-deadly AA-12 with a range of 100 km max, twice as much as the Americans, and is en par with performance with the AA-11. Undeserved confidence is the American disease.

2) To re-quote your Mao quote, it's not the machine, it's the men. How much similated practice those Chinese pilots have is critical.

Re-read what I wrote, where did I disagree with this?

If you've done much reading on the SU-27, you know the major rap against it is that its avionics are way inferior to its Western counterparts.

Actually the biggest "rap" against it is its size. But one thing is for sure, the height of SU-27 development, which is the SU-30 MK, is in Chinese hands. There is NO problem with its BVR avionics, and modern Russian radars are some of the best in the world.

http://www.maks.ru/expo/412/prod_206.htm

It is very vulnerable BVR. It's best hope is to be able to survive and get in close.

The SU-27? Are you sure you aren't talking about the MiG-29? The SU-27 purpose was BVR? I question your authority. Also did I neglect to mention the Chinese AWACS?

And yet you are saying Stokes and I are displaying typical American arrogance.

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remember where you heard this when this finally does happen. No Chinese fighters will go east of Taiwan.

Where have I said they will? :bugeye:

And if they can't invade, it's irrelevant in the end

They can invade; the question is when not how.

 

you got way too deep into that argument try this one its more interesting;

US pulls out of iraq it destabilizes into a full scale civil war. Hypotheticly speaking chaos is in full swing... Turkey puts up armies on its southern border. Syriah sends aid from the west to the Sunni's Iran to the shiites from the east. The kurds are in the northern parts defending their own provinces. Play this out a bit lets say in a span of a week it goes to full chaos and US isn't going to intervine untill the fighting is over....

 

That has already been discussed look for it...

 

Isn't it

"Plagiarism is the highest form of flattery"?

 

By entwining her fate with Babylon the US will decline & from this will emerge the next great super power which is incidentally where the greatest military treatise was written, China.

 

China: 2004

Germany: 1904

Do you see what I see?

 

The world right now reminds me a LOT of the barely pre-WWI era. We have a handfull of powerful states, each with its allies. Tension is everywhere and each of the major powers secretly, or not so secretly, wants to beat the pants off one or more of the others with a big stick. The place is a powder keg and the smallest spark would be enough to light the fuse.

In fact, we already got one helluva spark by way of 9-11. Thankfully, this fire has been burning in some of the more backwater parts of the world (the Mideast) and isn't in danger of bringing down a clash between the major powers. So far, it has just increased tension between the US and everybody else and brought down a taste of our wrath on a couple of countries.

This is little comfort as a slight breeze could make quite a mess of things... Archduke Ferdinand And Kaizer Wilhelm style.

 

hi:
How romantic, let me eat my cake... please, thanks

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I predict
MISSunderstanding@ will have a another piece of cake before end of march(strabarry or banana).

The ME will start selling oil in gold dinares

 

>9. Syria will be forced to leave Lebanon.

By whom? By the Israelis?

>10. US will get a surplus in september 2007-2012 december

How? What if the Iraq war is not over at that time? It makes continuous costs...

>11. Milosovic will be aquited

Why?

>12. A republican will win the election after Bush as well

Who?
I guess you mean Arnold, do you?
It's possible that the article in the constitution, which requires a President to be a NATIVE US citizen, will be changed...

>13. A rebel war like chechnya will break out in north western china, former sianking.

I think they will not dare to do so...
And if they do, it will be crushed down by the Chinese even before it really breaks out.
The Chinese regime will not wait until they need to send an army there...
Remember Beijing 1989.

 

Where does this actually exist, I would be keenly interested on how you can compare pre-WWI alliance systems, and colonial competition with other powers? I see no such thing...

 

Colonial competition has been replaced by the protection of trade and corperate intrests. Major powers today will do anything to ensure the steady supply of goods and services. I could easily imagin a whole lot of pressure (economic, military, diplomatic, or otherwise) breaking out over something as petty as a supply of gum arabic, nutmeg, or a ban on GM wheat. Trade is everything.

The alliance system? Well, alliances today aren't exchanged behind the scenes anymore but that dosn't mean that much anymore. If anyone seriously attacked a country's ally, it would still bring in their wrath. War can then spread in a domino effect with more and more countries falling in to defend their allies. And, of course, they would be jumping in to defend their economic intrests.

 

Then show me how it is contradictory.

*Sigh* Saying the CV was perfect for wars like the GWs is not exactly the same as saying that it had one sole purpose. But if you think I said that at some point go back and find it, then cut and paste it, and I will stand duly corrected.

 

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=thustly