Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

(09/09/2020 AU)
COVID 19 milestone last night:

• 900,000+ confirmed Covid fatalities, globally.
• 3841 per day: New deaths ( steady-ish ) ( eg. 3841*365= 1.4 million per year)

The world should pass the million fatalities mark in about 26 days or earlier depending on how India, copes with their increasing community transmission rates.

Note:
Official data is most likely understating the situation significantly due to political and other factors.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

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Covid-19 deaths are being consistently undercounted, not over counted.

That is an incentive to record living patients as Covid infected, not dead ones. The problem is that the extra costs of treating people as infected are greater than 20%, so you'd still lose money.

We in the US don't have "ample" tests yet. Most places cannot even test the asymptomatic with known exposure - let alone the general run of the population, or people who die outside of a hospital.

Because of the lack of testing, the only way we can accurately estimate the extra deaths due to Covid in the US is by comparing overall death rates with statistical norms - these indicate that the US is undercounting the deaths due to Covid by thousands at least.

 

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28/09/2020 AU

Just for the record:
Global fatalities confirmed as COVID -19 related have just passed 1 million.
Stats C/O https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

33,303,209 confirmed cases. (Yesterday 24 hour new case rate: 251,898)
1,002,383 Deaths. (Yesterday 24 hr new death rate: 3873)
24,634,061 recoveries.
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7,666,951 Active cases
Of those 1% are critical.
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Notes:
USA, Brazil, India and Russia are presenting volatile figures.
All stats are generally considered as conservative and understated by various degrees.

If the current daily death rate is maintained at 3873, the year 2021 will see a further 1.4 million fatalities. ( 3873 * 365)

 

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The extent of post-infection immunity remains unclear at this stage. There'll be at least some level of protective antibodies and memory T-cells for some period of time offering some level of subsequent immunity.

 

So are you estimating that the average daily kill from Covid will drop in the near future?

Note that the large majority of the world's population has not been infected, and a large proportion of the infected appear to be vulnerable to long term injury even after surviving the initial attack - so regardless of acquired immunity to initial infection, the virus will have a large pool of targets available for most of the year to come.

 

Moreover, HR overlooks the "fact" that viruses mutate all by themselves and any current immunity offers no future protection against mutated strains.

The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 2 20205:15 PM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUL 3 20202:21 PM EDT

KEY POINTS

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...me-more-infectious-dr-anthony-fauci-says.html

The point is that the Covid 19 is a mutated strain from prior families. Unless we eradicate the strain altogether, it will continue to haunt us till the end of time. And that is near impossible, because often the virus starts in animals and "jumps" to humans.

Common question
How many coronaviruses are there?

 

Human Coronavirus Types

Why Viruses Change

https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-strains#1

 

The out beak in Vietnam (July/August) indicated that the virus had mutated from local droplet to a more air borne variety...catching authorities by surprise. It has mutated since then of course...
To expect the virus to follow known historical viral trends is not advisable. We simply do not now how this new virus will transform and impact the global population over time.
To allow un-fetted transmission in the hope of some sort of herd immunity would be extremely foolish until we do know more. IMO
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In the mean time, does the loss of USA top military personnel to quarantine due to Trumps White House insanity compromise USA military readiness?
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...to add
According to The World Bank the global population of high risk people over 65 is about 10%.
10% of 8 billion is an awful lot of, high risk to fatality, people.

 

I didn't "overlook" or exclude anything. I was merely suggesting that the calculation 3873 * 365 was a bit simplistic as a prediction. That's all.

Coronaviruses are not influenza. The nearest relative to SARS-CoV-2 is the original SARS virus, and that disappeared and hasn't returned. There is, as yet, no indication that SARS-CoV-2 will mutate in the same way as influenza.

 

Are you willing to gamble on that speculative view?

The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 2 2020 5:15 PM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUL 3 2020 2:21 PM EDT

This is the evolutionary matrix that ended in the Covid-19 strain.
229E (alpha)
NL63 (alpha)
OC43 (beta)
HKU1 (beta
MERS-CoV, a beta virus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
SARS-CoV, a beta virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html#

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7204879/#

 

I agree, way too simplistic...mainly because it fails to take into account the massive under reporting estimated to be by a factor of 10 by data scientists.
The point though, of posting the simplistic figure was to highlight that even if we ignore the under reported factor of 10 the numbers of CFR is still huge especially when a significant percentage of them are occurring and will occur in the USA.
If we include the factor of ten we end up with a years worth (2021) of CFR at about 14 million and not 1.4 million.

 

Europe's second wave:
Spain has declared a state of emergency.
Europe has declared a record 100,000 new cases in a day...
The situation is likely to get much worse before people actually agree that it is necessary to do something about it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10...mergency-covid-19-second-wave-madrid/12750196

 

IMO, soon we'll have sufficient information to be able to make some probability predictions, by using LNRE.

Large number of rare events

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_number_of_rare_events

 

Any one want to hazard a guess as to what the fatality rate would be if it were not for modern medicine and services?
(comparing 1918 with 2020)

 

You would also need to add in lockdown, personal distancing, etc. Those have been as/more important than modern medicine, by keeping the infection away from the bulk of the population.

 

2009 H1N1 over 60 million cases less than 15,000 deaths
2020 Covid about 7.7 million cases over 200,000 dead
Modern medicine does not seem to be doing all that well against covid.

 

COVID-19 is a bit more dangerous.

 

Scientists always said that even the best case scenario for finding a vaccine was a minimum 18 months, most likely longer, if at all.

Unfortunately, we still haven't developed the hand held medical analyzers they use in Star Trek or the technology to quickly make a vaccine.

 

Best they have for a hand held are the Red Ray Guns to check your forehead temperature, or as some places here checking your wrist temperature

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Also a Glock 17, accompanied by the words "Stay well back buddy!" can work.