Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Some serious data analysis for the Australian experience to date:
If you are interested as there are certain similarities in life style to the USA experience
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...w-covid-19-is-spreading-in-australia/12060704

Notes:
Australia is now pretty much fully closed to international visitation and travel outbound.
Confirmed 681 and rising rapidly every 24 hours. JHU 20-03-2020 8am
Hospitals are currently coping reasonably well. CFR is relatively low.
USA Confirmed 13060 and rising rapidly every 24 hours.
Global confirmed 242,092

 

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What if we had been ready, globally, to combat a viral outbreak like this?

Or alternatively, why weren't we ready? Given that epidemiologists have been saying a new strain of influenza is just a matter of time? If we can't handle SARS-Cov-2, what about the next emergent strain of a coronavirus? Why weren't the biotech companies competing with each other to produce cheap test kits?

Or, why weren't governments around the world investing in biotech and the development of containment options, test kits, ability to upscale rapidly or go on a war-footing against a new disease?

Do you think our future will include this? I think there will now be a lot of pressure on governments to let everyone know just what they do have planned, in case of the next outbreak of a new, contagious disease.
Or, it's time to start listening to the virologists and the WHO, etc, and actually invest in the necessaries, whatever these turn out to be. This new coronavirus is another in what's expected to be an ongoing sequence; we will need to be better prepared. It's a shame we weren't this time, but that could be because capitalism doesn't bother with development of a product, like a virus test, unless it can make a profit. It doesn't invest in cures for diseases that poor people get, rather, the diseases of the rich get all the attention, and that approach has a few problems when a real outbreak happens and not enough tests can be made.

So governments will have to invest/pay for, the costs of r&d on this, or incentivise the industry.
As for the end of capitalism, that might be about to happen too, or it already has, who can say?

Right now it's upside-down, notice. The workers are being paid to stay home.

 

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Because when times are good, people think pandemic response teams / public health programs / preparedness programs are a waste of time and money. "It's been like 20 years since the last pandemic! It's safe to say we will never have one again. Or at least, not while I am in office."

No pandemic - no $$$.

Because to do that you have to raise taxes, and then you get booted out of office by people "sick of the greedy government taking all their hard-earned money for government waste."

Exactly. And if you do try to prepare - why, that's !!!!SOCIALISM!!!!

 

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I tend to think at this stage that the first most important thing a Government can do in the event of a confirmed flu or Coronavirus outbreak is immediately and automatically, close it's borders to international travelers inward or outward bound for a minimum of 7 days waiting further advice. Those caught in transit must be screened and isolated where appropriate. Other wise business as usual until more information is available.
Sure... the above has many problems but the principle is sound IMO.
The possibility of quarantine has always been a risk factor of international travel just now it appears it needs to be considered more seriously. When ever a person gets on a plane to fly internationally he/she must accept that they may end up in quarantine with out any notice.

 

It's just that I know enough about biotech that I know cheap accurate tests for a new emergent strain could have been available much earlier; likely there would be a paper strip type of test, with results in a few minutes instead of days.

I don't think I'm exaggerating there; I guarantee there are startup biotech firms already looking at this type of product, a quick and accurate result for any diagnostic is better than a slow test. They could make lots of money selling it to hospitals, for instance.

If biotech can do it for covid-19, they should be able to test across the viral family; this stuff isn't hard anymore, it doesn't take years of research.

 

What industry benefits from this pandemic?

 

There will be some that benefit while the pandemic goes on, and others that will likely get a permanent boost (I'm thinking hand sanitiser producers etc). With the stock market in turmoil the financial industry will have pockets that perform incredibly well - hedge funds etc.

 

An interesting note from the WHO SR#59:
It took over 3 months to get to 100,000 confirmed cases but only 12 days to get to 200,000 cases.
Admittedly increased testing has a lot to do with it but... even so...

 

The response to this epidemic is hamstrung by . . . a lack of preparedness (!) This lack will be addressed because the public won't allow governments to paper over the cracks anymore. I predict a game-changing shift in the attitudes towards corporates and profit-making, versus medicine and medical science that governments will be obliged to invest in.

History will I think, demonstrate that the risks to civilisation as we know it are just too high. Next time we will be better prepared or rather, those countries that aren't will possibly cease to exist after a total breakdown and economic collapse. I think America might be one of those countries at the moment; the response in that country is somewhat muddled and of course, revolves around the political fortunes of one person and his band of merry men.

I think I can say I'd rather be anywhere else than America today. Some Americans who have the funds are looking for countries like NZ to ride out the storm. NZ has less than 100 infected people to date, but nobody really knows how good that news is.

 

As to what the tests and testing data are telling us: If we could test everyone, the epidemiologists would have a much better estimate of spread and the rates of infection, also of natural immunity and average recovery times. But the costs of producing and administering tests will represent a one-off loss (corporations don't like things like loss-making developments), and this cost will be borne by---taxpayers, who else? Assuming enough people are working and paying those taxes.

The lesson will be that, there was too much confidence in the social model. It wasn't a good strategy to ignore medical experts' advice on the likelihood of a new disease that might become a pandemic. Sure, you can see that now, now that it's too late to do anything except stay home and hope the government can give you some money. And that you can buy food with it if there's any left.

 

Agrees!
I think, after reading about success stories at certain places in the world, that the most important thing a Government can do is to urgently test every one regardless of whether they are symptomatic or not. Then isolate, enforced if necessary, those that test positive. It really isn't about money any more but survival. Test, test and keep on testing until this outbreak is over. Acquire the knowledge to act and not just react.
People need to know whether they are infected or not so that their decisions about self isolation make sense to them.
People need to be empowered with knowledge about their individual current state if you wish them to act voluntarily or comply with oppressive regulations.
Capitalizing on peoples good will and good faith won't happen so well if not.

Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and one stark example in the center of Italy's red zone all demonstrate that knowledge is power. That knowing the true scale of this disaster is incredibly important to the minimization of it's consequences to both human life, life style and economic success.
Have a read of latest:
Italy , region Veneto, Village of Vo
as an example.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...cking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048

or take note that Singapore has not recorded many deaths nor infections ( running at 385 ) yet was one of the first countries impacted 3 months ago.
or South Korea has had so many infections yet recorded so relatively few fatalities.
( look to the nations that have low CFR's and ask the question: why?)

IMO every person in the USA Australia and other nations needs to be tested and assessed as a matter of urgency so that infected people can voluntarily self quarantine and lend weight to the need for voluntary social isolation.

 

Eventually nations will work out that all travelers entering a country must require successfully passing the infection test. No ifs or buts. No ineffective 14 days of isolation. Simply be cleared of infection prior to entering the country.
I would be confident that New Zealand and possibly Australia will make passing the infection test mandatory if someone wishes to cross the border soon.

Was comparing the latest Press White House press conference with our own Prime Minister's (Au) and noted a few things that stood out in my opinion.

• Trump and team provided way too much information, attempted to provide too much detail, sent mixed messages, demonstrated contradiction, lack of clear priorities etc...as press conferences go it was a confused mess. They let the media frenzy dictate the narrative. Trump is obviously more concerned about a failing share index than the people who make that share index possible. He is sending mixed messaging that somehow he can have his cake and eat it to..when it is blatantly obvious that this is not going to happen. ( the money vs life dilemma in full view) Trump attempted to change the street name of the virus from COVID to CHINESE probably as an attempt to deflect criticism of his administration and further poison relations with a nation the USA will need to have on side as the problem progresses.
  
• Morrison provided less information but was concise, clear and to the point. "We are at war!" and we are doing the best we can. Promoting the move to a war time economy ( with associated losses) and focused only on winning the war by what ever means possible. ( Although still confused about the need to test and the criteria people have to meet to be tested)

At the moment the current food holdings in the USA is relatively strong. You have enough food to supply the USA for a few short months before it all breaks down due to supply problems. Reduced imports, inadequate farming support, logistics etc...
The same issue applies to all nations. By July, as a rough estimate, things are going to look very different unless mitigated.
and we all know what happens when food becomes scarce...

China managed to contain it's outbreak in a way that allowed the rest of the Chinese nation to continue to farm and produce food ( even if limited) and was organized in logistics to supply the quarantine zone adequately.
It only did so by extensive testing and severe quarantine provisions and having only one primary epicenter.

 

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So no more Republicans in Congress? Trump impeached and removed from office? The Democratic leadership throwing its full weight behind people like Warren or Sanders and a massive groundswell of popular opinion rising up and cleaning house (and Senate)?

I don't see it. I see Joe Biden nominated by the Democratic Party - as the game-changing shift. And there's a good chance he will lose to somebody even worse.

I see Chuck Todd and David Brooks and the rest of them firmly implanted in their usual seats at the table, and Trump salting his press conferences with ringers just as W did
(who in hell is Chanel Rion, you ask? Lefties to the rescue with history and facts and stuff, once again: https://www.mediamatters.org/corona...nspiracy-theory-novel-coronavirus-was-created )

and this guy once again having called it: https://driftglass.blogspot.com/2020/03/today-in-bill-kristol-retweeting-more.html

Not "people".
The "people" had a pandemic response team set up and ready, and competent management appointed to the EPA and FEMA for dealing with public health crises, and so forth, years ago.

The word you are looking for is "Republican".

It's not the "people", for example, who are currently acting to gut the EPA's protection of public health via administrative changes in its rules of evidence and justification - it's this Republican administration.

(the public comment period on that ends in thirty days, btw - your last chance to be one of the lefties trying get the latest bus to stop this side of the latest cliff)

 

My worst-case scenario goes like this: most countries manage to contain the disease, some countries appear to have managed this as of today.

But viral epidemics, once they're out there, have an unfortunate tendency to re-infect populations. A government that listens to the medical experts might enact more restrictions than exist now, rather than loosening them, to make sure it doesn't spread again.

I can envisage a country like America seeing the hiatus in new infections as a signal that it's all over. But, there is still insufficient data to predict this; the virus might well return, and, it might be worse on the second run because it will have had plenty of opportunity to adapt. That's how the Spanish flu went in 1918 when a lot less was understood about viral diseases. I think in some cases, governments will have a bigger problem than mandating shutdowns when the signs the infections are decreasing start to be reported.

But what do I know? Maybe Americans are completely rational and none of them are the least bit selfish. Yeah . . .

What we seem to be in need of, globally, is a magic bullet. One that confers immunity to this new strain or possibly to a range of them. If that happens the world will be saved by science; politicians won't get far by denigrating or low-balling science, particularly medical science.

 

HOPE!
Front page news here. 2 Australian COVID-19 patients have been totally cleansed of the virus using old Malaria drug. No evidence of virus after treatment. Major trials have been expedited.

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Clip...
Will provide links and research more later...when I get home.

 

i've seen it it helping people recover from mild to moderate cases and does nothing to effect the morbidity of the severe cases the people we really need to clear.

 

The covid patients, what treatment given to them in hospital?
since no vaccine no drugs, then what they do in hospitals?

 

There are a number of factors yet to be determined I believe.
For example, ( just guessing ):
If the drugs are applied early enough will they prevent a more severe progression?
How many hospital beds would be freed up if moderate cases were resolved?
etc...

 

COVID-19 usually doesn't kill people. It's the secondary infections (like pneumonia) that kills them. And they _can_ treat pneumonia.